Round 11 of 15 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2020

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010

16.10 – 18.10.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	41:54.391	25
2	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.263	20
3	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.644	16
4	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+2.880	13
5	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+4.570	11
6	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+4.756	10
7	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+8.639	9
8	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+8.913	8
9	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+9.390	7
10	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+9.617	6
11	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.200	5
12	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.689	4
13	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+14.598	3
14	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+15.291	2
15	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+15.941	1
16	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+18.284	0
17	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+20.136	0
18	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+21.498	0
19	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+25.300	0
20	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+25.558	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 29%	Alex Rins · 1% · from P10	0.50 / 0.50	4.1 / 4.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Joan Mir	1:49.119	—	+0.562	Soft	21
Alex Marquez	1:49.163	+0.044	+0.356	Soft	21
Alex Rins	1:49.264	+0.145	+0.217	Soft	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:49.366	+0.247	+0.359	Soft	21
Maverick Viñales	1:49.450	+0.331	+0.292	Soft	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:49.470	+0.351	+0.512	Soft	20
Cal Crutchlow	1:49.472	+0.353	+0.729	Medium	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:49.480	+0.361	+0.226	Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:49.495	+0.376	+0.344	Soft	21
Iker Lecuona	1:49.607	+0.488	+0.094	Soft	21
Brad Binder	1:49.608	+0.489	+0.327	Soft	21
Jack Miller	1:49.612	+0.493	+0.105	Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:49.626	+0.507	+0.193	Soft	21
Pol Espargaro	1:49.627	+0.508	+0.406	Soft	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:49.631	+0.512	+0.574	Medium	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:49.687	+0.568	+0.209	Soft	21
Stefan Bradl	1:49.730	+0.611	+0.530	Soft	21
Tito Rabat	1:50.096	+0.977	+0.229	Soft	21
Bradley Smith	1:50.100	+0.981	+0.085	Soft	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:50.226	+1.107	+0.275	Soft	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/23

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

0.263 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P10 to P1.

Longest battle: Bradley Smith vs Tito Rabat (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Maverick Viñales (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	10	4	+6
Andrea Dovizioso	13	8	+5
Johann Zarco	16	13	+3
Cal Crutchlow	3	11	−8
Aleix Espargaro	9	12	−3
Iker Lecuona	15	18	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	10→1	+7.6
Alex Marquez	11→2	+7.3
Andrea Dovizioso	13→7	+3.5
Aleix Espargaro	9→13	−5.0
Danilo Petrucci	8→15	−7.7
Fabio Quartararo	1→18	−15.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	76%	+0.45%	+0.038	1	3	10.7
Medium	24%	+0.39%	+0.033	0	0	9.8

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

19.4 °C

Air

max 19.9 °C

30%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 20 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 16.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:49.866	—	17	344.0	Soft / Medium	1:51.245	+0.75%	8	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:49.951	+0.085	14	340.7	Soft / Medium	1:51.696	+1.16%	8	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:50.142	+0.276	20	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:50.413	—	7	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:50.176	+0.310	14	344.0	Soft / Soft	1:52.281	+1.69%	5	Medium
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:50.420	+0.554	20	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:51.623	+1.10%	15	Medium
6	Joan Mir	01:50.425	+0.559	19	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:51.409	+0.90%	8	Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	01:50.464	+0.598	16	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:51.403	+0.90%	11	Medium
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:50.598	+0.732	11	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Alex Rins	01:50.721	+0.855	19	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:52.982	+2.33%	5	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:50.801	+0.935	19	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:53.424	+2.73%	6	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:50.973	+1.107	17	344.0	Soft / Soft	1:52.283	+1.69%	5	Medium
12	Jack Miller	01:51.219	+1.353	14	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:53.509	+2.80%	6	Medium
13	Iker Lecuona	01:51.241	+1.375	14	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:51.957	+1.40%	9	Medium
14	Stefan Bradl	01:51.285	+1.419	18	341.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:51.340	+1.474	19	340.7	Soft / Medium	1:52.554	+1.94%	9	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:51.357	+1.491	17	344.0	Soft / Medium	1:52.266	+1.68%	8	Medium
17	Andrea Dovizioso	01:51.408	+1.542	15	348.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Bradley Smith	01:51.442	+1.576	10	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:52.626	+2.00%	6	Medium
19	Tito Rabat	01:51.581	+1.715	19	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:53.338	+2.65%	14	Medium
20	Johann Zarco	01:51.807	+1.941	15	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:52.772	+2.14%	8	Medium
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:51.934	+2.068	17	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:53.825	+3.09%	12	Medium

FP2 · 16.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:47.771	—	15	342.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.020	+0.249	20	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:49.386	+0.35%	9	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.218	+0.447	19	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:49.348	+0.32%	7	Medium
4	Joan Mir	01:48.501	+0.730	18	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:49.000	—	6	Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.598	+0.827	19	348.4	Soft / Soft	1:50.459	+1.34%	5	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.670	+0.899	18	348.4	Soft / Soft	1:51.778	+2.55%	5	Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	01:48.746	+0.975	18	348.4	Soft / Soft	1:50.388	+1.27%	6	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	01:48.823	+1.052	18	347.3	Soft / Soft	1:50.188	+1.09%	5	Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.824	+1.053	18	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:50.395	+1.28%	10	Medium
10	Alex Rins	01:48.839	+1.068	19	344.0	Soft / Soft	1:50.139	+1.05%	10	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	01:48.906	+1.135	16	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:50.456	+1.34%	6	Medium
12	Tito Rabat	01:49.003	+1.232	19	347.3	Soft / Soft	1:51.250	+2.06%	6	Medium
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.015	+1.244	20	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:50.850	+1.70%	10	Medium
14	Jack Miller	01:49.026	+1.255	18	347.3	Soft / Soft	1:51.588	+2.37%	6	Medium
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.107	+1.336	19	344.0	Soft / Soft	1:51.102	+1.93%	6	Medium
16	Iker Lecuona	01:49.165	+1.394	18	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:50.561	+1.43%	5	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.208	+1.437	19	341.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Bradley Smith	01:49.258	+1.487	18	344.0	Soft / Soft	1:51.023	+1.86%	6	Soft
19	Francesco Bagnaia	01:49.488	+1.717	19	351.8	Soft / Soft	1:50.297	+1.19%	6	Medium
20	Stefan Bradl	01:50.091	+2.320	16	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Brad Binder	01:50.244	+2.473	15	347.3	Soft / Soft	1:52.329	+3.05%	5	Soft

FP3 · 17.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.859	—	17	334.4	Soft / Soft	1:49.906	+0.36%	8	Soft
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.314	+0.455	16	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Pol Espargaro	01:48.319	+0.460	18	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:50.564	+0.96%	5	Medium
4	Joan Mir	01:48.322	+0.463	14	334.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Alex Marquez	01:48.403	+0.544	19	338.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.406	+0.547	17	336.5	Soft / Soft	1:50.344	+0.76%	5	Medium
7	Alex Rins	01:48.633	+0.774	18	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:50.925	+1.29%	5	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.653	+0.794	16	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:50.608	+1.00%	5	Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.754	+0.895	18	336.5	Soft / Soft	1:51.038	+1.39%	5	Soft
10	Brad Binder	01:48.837	+0.978	17	340.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.900	+1.041	15	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:51.480	+1.80%	6	Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	01:48.912	+1.053	16	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:49.758	+0.22%	7	Soft
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.953	+1.094	19	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:51.148	+1.49%	5	Medium
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.074	+1.215	17	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:50.462	+0.87%	5	Soft
15	Fabio Quartararo	01:49.106	+1.247	16	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:49.514	—	9	Soft
16	Iker Lecuona	01:49.203	+1.344	18	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:50.703	+1.09%	5	Soft
17	Stefan Bradl	01:49.244	+1.385	19	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:51.559	+1.87%	5	Soft
18	Tito Rabat	01:49.283	+1.424	20	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:51.068	+1.42%	11	Soft
19	Bradley Smith	01:49.368	+1.509	18	336.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Jack Miller	01:49.569	+1.710	17	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:50.796	+1.17%	6	Medium
21	Johann Zarco	01:49.910	+2.051	13	339.6	missing / missing	—			—

FP4 · 17.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.551	—	14	336.5	Medium / Soft	1:49.054	—	6	Medium
2	Alex Marquez	01:48.656	+0.105	15	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:49.920	+0.79%	11	Medium
3	Joan Mir	01:48.694	+0.143	15	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:49.202	+0.14%	6	Soft
4	Pol Espargaro	01:48.749	+0.198	13	342.9	Medium / Medium	1:49.723	+0.61%	5	Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	01:48.753	+0.202	17	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.064	+0.01%	15	Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.771	+0.220	16	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:49.087	+0.03%	13	Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.803	+0.252	16	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.840	+0.72%	13	Soft
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.820	+0.269	14	344.0	Medium / Medium	1:49.322	+0.25%	10	Medium
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.853	+0.302	13	349.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Jack Miller	01:48.859	+0.308	13	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:49.418	+0.33%	5	Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:48.896	+0.345	13	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:49.202	+0.14%	5	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.897	+0.346	13	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:50.145	+1.00%	5	Soft
13	Brad Binder	01:49.097	+0.546	13	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:49.487	+0.40%	11	Soft
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.135	+0.584	14	344.0	Soft / Medium	1:50.462	+1.29%	10	Soft
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.162	+0.611	14	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:50.284	+1.13%	6	Soft
16	Stefan Bradl	01:49.479	+0.928	15	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:50.183	+1.04%	13	Soft
17	Bradley Smith	01:49.496	+0.945	13	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:50.643	+1.46%	5	Medium
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:49.509	+0.958	13	347.3	Medium / Soft	1:49.911	+0.79%	10	Soft
19	Iker Lecuona	01:49.555	+1.004	13	344.0	Medium / Medium	1:49.875	+0.75%	5	Medium
20	Johann Zarco	01:49.791	+1.240	12	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:50.441	+1.27%	5	Medium
21	Tito Rabat	01:49.794	+1.243	15	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:50.208	+1.06%	11	Medium

Q1 · 17.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.605	—	8	342.9	Soft / Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:47.737	+0.132	8	344.0	Soft / Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.752	+0.147	8	345.0	Soft / Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:47.853	+0.248	7	340.7	Soft / Soft
5	Iker Lecuona	01:48.005	+0.400	7	339.6	Medium / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:48.068	+0.463	8	342.9	missing / missing
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.386	+0.781	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.431	+0.826	6	339.6	Soft / Soft
9	Bradley Smith	01:48.556	+0.951	8	338.6	Soft / Soft
10	Tito Rabat	01:48.558	+0.953	8	342.9	Soft / Soft
11	Stefan Bradl	01:49.166	+1.561	8	341.8	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 17.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.076	—	7	339.6	Soft / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:47.122	+0.046	8	339.6	Soft / Soft
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.305	+0.229	7	348.4	Medium / Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.317	+0.241	8	336.5	Medium / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:47.413	+0.337	7	347.3	Soft / Soft
6	Joan Mir	01:47.679	+0.603	8	341.8	Soft / Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.759	+0.683	8	337.5	Medium / Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.924	+0.848	8	344.0	Soft / Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.988	+0.912	8	339.6	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:48.035	+0.959	8	339.6	Soft / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:48.189	+1.113	8	342.9	Medium / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:48.202	+1.126	7	346.1	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.651	—	11	336.5	Soft / Soft	1:51.514	+2.16%	8	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:48.870	+0.219	11	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.889	+0.67%	9	Soft
3	Alex Rins	01:48.983	+0.332	10	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.630	+0.44%	6	Soft
4	Alex Marquez	01:49.010	+0.359	11	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:49.449	+0.27%	9	Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:49.049	+0.398	11	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:49.153	—	5	Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:49.053	+0.402	11	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.916	+0.70%	9	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:49.109	+0.458	11	334.4	Soft / Soft	1:49.568	+0.38%	9	Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.173	+0.522	10	340.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.301	+0.650	11	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:49.743	+0.54%	9	Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	01:49.460	+0.809	11	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:50.004	+0.78%	9	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.475	+0.824	11	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Stefan Bradl	01:49.475	+0.824	11	344.0	Soft / Soft	1:49.742	+0.54%	9	Soft
13	Bradley Smith	01:49.524	+0.873	11	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:49.956	+0.74%	9	Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:49.557	+0.906	11	348.4	Soft / Medium	1:50.776	+1.49%	9	Medium
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.566	+0.915	10	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:50.050	+0.82%	6	Soft
16	Iker Lecuona	01:49.668	+1.017	11	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:49.911	+0.69%	9	Soft
17	Tito Rabat	01:49.792	+1.141	10	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:50.999	+1.69%	5	Soft
18	Johann Zarco	01:49.831	+1.180	11	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:50.787	+1.50%	9	Soft
19	Brad Binder	01:49.984	+1.333	10	334.4	Soft / Soft	1:50.368	+1.11%	6	Soft
20	Jack Miller	01:50.078	+1.427	10	341.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Aleix Espargaro	01:50.138	+1.487	8	336.5	Soft / Medium	—			—

Race · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	41:54.391	25	23	Soft / Soft	1:49.264	+0.13%	21	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	+0.263	20	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.163	+0.04%	21	Soft
3	Joan Mir	+2.644	16	23	Soft / Soft	1:49.119	—	21	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	+2.880	13	23	Soft / Soft	1:49.450	+0.30%	21	Soft
5	Takaaki Nakagami	+4.570	11	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.366	+0.23%	21	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	+4.756	10	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.470	+0.32%	20	Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	+8.639	9	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.480	+0.33%	21	Medium
8	Cal Crutchlow	+8.913	8	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.472	+0.32%	21	Medium
9	Jack Miller	+9.390	7	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.612	+0.45%	21	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	+9.617	6	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.495	+0.35%	21	Soft
11	Brad Binder	+13.200	5	23	Soft / Soft	1:49.608	+0.45%	21	Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	+13.689	4	23	Soft / Soft	1:49.627	+0.47%	21	Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	+14.598	3	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.687	+0.52%	21	Soft
14	Iker Lecuona	+15.291	2	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.607	+0.45%	21	Soft
15	Danilo Petrucci	+15.941	1	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.631	+0.47%	21	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	+18.284	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.626	+0.47%	21	Soft
17	Stefan Bradl	+20.136	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.730	+0.56%	21	Soft
18	Fabio Quartararo	+21.498	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:50.226	+1.01%	20	Soft
19	Bradley Smith	+25.300	0	23	Soft / Soft	1:50.100	+0.90%	21	Soft
20	Tito Rabat	+25.558	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:50.096	+0.90%	21	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	2	Medium / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Andrea Dovizioso	1:49.194*	—	+0.226	Medium	3
Cal Crutchlow	1:49.611*	+0.417	+0.729	Medium	3
Iker Lecuona	1:50.042*	+0.848	+0.094	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Miguel Oliveira	58%	8
2	Brad Binder	44%	4
3	Andrea Dovizioso	33%	3
4	Jack Miller	19%	2 ✓
5	Johann Zarco	18%	6
6	Francesco Bagnaia	9%	7
7	Tito Rabat	9%	10
8	Danilo Petrucci	4%	1 ✓
9	Iker Lecuona	2%	5
10	Stefan Bradl	3%	11
11	Bradley Smith	2%	9

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	38%	70%	91%	2
2	Franco Morbidelli	25%	51%	84%	4
3	Fabio Quartararo	16%	50%	81%	1
4	Cal Crutchlow	4%	33%	68%	3
5	Pol Espargaro	3%	27%	55%	12
6	Joan Mir	7%	22%	56%	6
7	Alex Marquez	2%	11%	43%	11
8	Takaaki Nakagami	2%	12%	36%	7
9	Alex Rins	1%	7%	29%	10
10	Aleix Espargaro	2%	7%	21%	9
11	Jack Miller	1%	9%	24%	5
12	Danilo Petrucci	0%	2%	15%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	29%	57%	70%	79%	18%	18
Maverick Viñales	2	23%	55%	72%	85%	12%	4
Cal Crutchlow	3	13%	38%	56%	71%	28%	8
Franco Morbidelli	4	11%	35%	55%	74%	22%	6
Jack Miller	5	7%	26%	47%	70%	26%	9
Joan Mir	6	6%	23%	43%	74%	19%	3
Takaaki Nakagami	7	5%	21%	43%	80%	11%	5
Danilo Petrucci	8	3%	14%	31%	68%	20%	15
Aleix Espargaro	9	2%	8%	21%	60%	25%	13
Alex Rins	10	1%	7%	17%	59%	21%	1
Alex Marquez	11	1%	6%	16%	64%	8%	2
Pol Espargaro	12	0%	3%	9%	46%	21%	12
Andrea Dovizioso	13	1%	3%	8%	45%	13%	7
Brad Binder	14	0%	1%	5%	34%	21%	11
Iker Lecuona	15	0%	1%	2%	21%	39%	14
Johann Zarco	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	17%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	17	0%	0%	1%	13%	31%	—
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	17%	16
Bradley Smith	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	14%	19
Tito Rabat	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	21%	20
Stefan Bradl	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.40%	Jorge Martin +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.54%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.54%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%	Enea Bastianini +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.40%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.12%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.15%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.49%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Brad Binder +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.33%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pedro Acosta +0.28%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.43%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.39%
S3	Enea Bastianini	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Miguel Oliveira +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Joan Mir +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%	Joan Mir +0.40%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.16%	Alex Marquez +0.25%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.35%	Jack Miller +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jack Miller +0.77%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.64%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.27%	Danilo Petrucci +0.44%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.51%	Cal Crutchlow +0.58%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.08%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.38%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Joan Mir	121	—
2	Fabio Quartararo	115	−6
3	Maverick Viñales	109	−12
4	Andrea Dovizioso	106	−15
5	Takaaki Nakagami	92	−29
6	Franco Morbidelli	87	−34

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.836 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P10 to P2.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Mika Kallio (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:49.312	—	+0.210	Soft	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:49.418	+0.106	+0.226	Soft	20
Maverick Viñales	1:49.548	+0.236	+0.292	Hard	21
Jack Miller	1:49.594	+0.282	+0.105	Soft	21
Cal Crutchlow	1:49.624	+0.312	+0.729	Soft	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:49.740	+0.428	+0.209	Soft	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:49.771	+0.459	+0.275	Hard	21
Joan Mir	1:50.251	+0.939	+0.562	Hard	21
Alex Rins	1:50.332	+1.020	+0.217	Hard	21
Valentino Rossi	1:50.355	+1.043	+0.508	Hard	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	5/22	23%
2022	3/23	13%
2021	2/22	9%
2020	1/21	5%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	62%	+1.21%	+0.034	1	3	11.5
Hard	38%	+0.94%	+0.052	0	0	10.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.