Round 12 of 15 Aftermath

Teruel Grand Prix 2020

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010

23.10 – 25.10.2020

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	41:47.652	25
2	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.205	20
3	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+5.376	16
4	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.299	13
5	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+12.915	11
6	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+12.953	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+14.262	9
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+14.720	8
9	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+17.177	7
10	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Ducati Team	+19.519	6
11	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+19.708	5
12	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+20.591	4
13	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+22.222	3
14	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Hublot Reale Avintia	+26.496	2
15	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+31.816	1
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Takaaki Nakagami · 32%	Franco Morbidelli · 20% · from P2	0.77 / 0.77	2.1 / 2.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:48.795	—	+0.356	Soft	11
Franco Morbidelli	1:48.841	+0.046	+0.512	Medium	21
Alex Rins	1:48.888	+0.093	+0.217	Soft	21
Joan Mir	1:48.908	+0.113	+0.562	Soft	21
Pol Espargaro	1:49.290	+0.495	+0.406	Soft	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:49.315	+0.520	+0.209	Soft	18
Miguel Oliveira	1:49.327	+0.532	+0.193	Soft	21
Johann Zarco	1:49.410	+0.615	+0.344	Soft	21
Iker Lecuona	1:49.489	+0.694	+0.094	Soft	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:49.515	+0.720	+0.226	Soft	21
Stefan Bradl	1:49.559	+0.764	+0.530	Soft	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:49.586	+0.791	+0.574	Soft	21
Maverick Viñales	1:49.594	+0.799	+0.292	Soft	20
Cal Crutchlow	1:49.630	+0.835	+0.729	Soft	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:49.633	+0.838	+0.275	Medium	21
Tito Rabat	1:49.820	+1.025	+0.229	Medium	21
Bradley Smith	1:50.161	+1.366	+0.085	Soft	21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Franco Morbidelli

2.205 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Joan Mir, from P12 to P3.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Stefan Bradl (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:00:41	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:00:41	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:00:52	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:01:37		Jump start	Jump start
Race	13:10:31	Francesco Bagnaia	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	13:24:23	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Franco Morbidelli (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Joan Mir	12	5	+7
Andrea Dovizioso	17	13	+4
Bradley Smith	21	17	+4
Miguel Oliveira	8	10	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Joan Mir	12→3	+6.9
Danilo Petrucci	19→10	+4.4
Pol Espargaro	9→4	+4.0
Fabio Quartararo	6→8	−2.0
Maverick Viñales	4→7	−2.2
Cal Crutchlow	7→11	−4.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	83%	+0.64%	+0.067	0	2	8.1
Medium	17%	+0.77%	+0.055	1	1	7.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

20.6 °C

Air

max 22.1 °C

36%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 31 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 23.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	01:48.184	—	18	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.702	+0.43%	10	Medium
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.622	+0.438	21	340.7	Soft / Medium	1:49.350	+0.11%	16	Medium
3	Joan Mir	01:48.993	+0.809	20	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:49.234	—	16	Medium
4	Stefan Bradl	01:49.003	+0.819	19	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:50.032	+0.73%	10	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:49.100	+0.916	21	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:49.783	+0.50%	17	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	01:49.176	+0.992	17	342.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Jack Miller	01:49.211	+1.027	16	350.6	Soft / Medium	1:50.155	+0.84%	5	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.305	+1.121	19	344.0	Soft / Medium	1:49.996	+0.70%	9	Medium
9	Pol Espargaro	01:49.346	+1.162	15	340.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.356	+1.172	13	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:49.676	+0.41%	4	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:49.360	+1.176	19	344.0	Soft / Medium	1:49.576	+0.31%	5	Medium
12	Alex Rins	01:49.372	+1.188	20	340.7	Soft / Medium	1:49.996	+0.70%	6	Medium
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.442	+1.258	17	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:49.608	+0.34%	10	Medium
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.482	+1.298	19	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:50.552	+1.21%	5	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona	01:49.501	+1.317	18	338.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.512	+1.328	18	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:50.603	+1.25%	5	Medium
17	Fabio Quartararo	01:49.621	+1.437	18	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:50.047	+0.74%	4	Medium
18	Bradley Smith	01:49.727	+1.543	18	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:50.981	+1.60%	5	Soft
19	Brad Binder	01:49.962	+1.778	17	339.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Tito Rabat	01:50.215	+2.031	22	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:50.930	+1.55%	18	Medium
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:50.251	+2.067	16	347.3	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 23.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.782	—	18	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:47.957	+0.175	18	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.980	+1.03%	5	Medium
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.111	+0.329	18	347.3	Soft / Soft	1:49.597	+0.68%	5	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.164	+0.382	18	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:49.289	+0.40%	7	Medium
5	Joan Mir	01:48.182	+0.400	20	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:49.445	+0.54%	5	Medium
6	Alex Rins	01:48.190	+0.408	19	342.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Iker Lecuona	01:48.360	+0.578	18	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.761	+0.83%	5	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.426	+0.644	15	341.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Pol Espargaro	01:48.439	+0.657	18	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:48.857	—	5	Soft
10	Alex Marquez	01:48.443	+0.661	19	342.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Stefan Bradl	01:48.444	+0.662	19	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.401	+0.50%	5	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.527	+0.745	19	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:49.775	+0.84%	5	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	01:48.532	+0.750	17	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Brad Binder	01:48.545	+0.763	19	345.0	Medium / missing	—			—
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.612	+0.830	20	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:49.125	+0.25%	11	Soft
16	Bradley Smith	01:48.810	+1.028	19	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.659	+0.74%	6	Medium
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.870	+1.088	19	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.661	+0.74%	5	Medium
18	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.240	+1.458	16	351.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Francesco Bagnaia	01:49.319	+1.537	18	347.3	Medium / Soft	1:49.945	+1.00%	6	Soft
20	Tito Rabat	01:49.733	+1.951	20	341.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Jack Miller	01:49.794	+2.012	16	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 24.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.333	—	20	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:48.590	—	6	Medium
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.392	+0.059	16	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:50.023	+1.32%	6	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.401	+0.068	19	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:48.639	+0.05%	5	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:47.473	+0.140	14	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:49.342	+0.69%	6	Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:47.546	+0.213	20	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:48.903	+0.29%	5	Soft
6	Iker Lecuona	01:47.548	+0.215	19	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:49.524	+0.86%	5	Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:47.554	+0.221	19	347.3	Soft / Soft	1:48.906	+0.29%	6	Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.625	+0.292	19	341.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.708	+0.375	18	348.4	Soft / Soft	1:49.516	+0.85%	4	Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:47.715	+0.382	18	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:48.920	+0.30%	6	Soft
11	Jack Miller	01:47.739	+0.406	20	347.3	Soft / Soft	1:50.433	+1.70%	6	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.742	+0.409	16	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Brad Binder	01:47.822	+0.489	19	342.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.878	+0.545	21	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.580	+0.91%	7	Medium
15	Tito Rabat	01:48.023	+0.690	21	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:50.447	+1.71%	13	Soft
16	Pol Espargaro	01:48.025	+0.692	17	347.3	Soft / Soft	1:49.721	+1.04%	5	Medium
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.096	+0.763	18	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:49.241	+0.60%	6	Soft
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.134	+0.801	18	349.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Stefan Bradl	01:48.255	+0.922	20	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.440	+0.78%	10	Soft
20	Bradley Smith	01:48.471	+1.138	18	344.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Johann Zarco	01:48.501	+1.168	15	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 24.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:47.931	—	15	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.869	+0.26%	9	Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.085	+0.154	13	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:48.583	—	4	Soft
3	Joan Mir	01:48.366	+0.435	13	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Pol Espargaro	01:48.391	+0.460	10	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:48.769	+0.17%	7	Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.475	+0.544	12	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:49.351	+0.71%	5	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.497	+0.566	14	338.6	Medium / Medium	1:49.323	+0.68%	5	Soft
7	Jack Miller	01:48.580	+0.649	11	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.438	+0.79%	5	Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:48.683	+0.752	14	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:48.891	+0.28%	5	Soft
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.686	+0.755	13	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:49.509	+0.85%	5	Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.700	+0.769	14	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:48.791	+0.19%	5	Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:48.704	+0.773	15	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.114	+0.49%	11	Soft
12	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.761	+0.830	14	337.5	Medium / Medium	1:48.997	+0.38%	5	Soft
13	Brad Binder	01:48.807	+0.876	12	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:49.271	+0.63%	8	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	01:48.812	+0.881	13	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.122	+0.50%	5	Soft
15	Iker Lecuona	01:48.943	+1.012	14	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:49.202	+0.57%	7	Soft
16	Bradley Smith	01:49.011	+1.080	14	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:49.595	+0.93%	5	Medium
17	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.035	+1.104	13	347.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Francesco Bagnaia	01:49.045	+1.114	11	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Stefan Bradl	01:49.126	+1.195	11	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.430	+1.499	14	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:51.026	+2.25%	5	Soft
21	Tito Rabat	01:49.449	+1.518	15	344.0	Medium / Medium	1:49.778	+1.10%	7	Medium

Q1 · 24.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Pol Espargaro	01:47.071	—	8	341.8	Medium / Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:47.303	+0.232	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.372	+0.301	7	342.9	Medium / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:47.394	+0.323	8	347.3	Soft / Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:47.478	+0.407	7	342.9	Medium / Soft
6	Stefan Bradl	01:47.585	+0.514	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.747	+0.676	8	347.3	Soft / Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.759	+0.688	8	345.0	Soft / Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.855	+0.784	8	346.1	Medium / Soft
10	Tito Rabat	01:48.114	+1.043	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
11	Bradley Smith	01:48.402	+1.331	8	341.8	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 24.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.882	—	7	339.6	Medium / Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.945	+0.063	7	336.5	Soft / Soft
3	Alex Rins	01:47.155	+0.273	8	340.7	Soft / Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:47.241	+0.359	7	339.6	Soft / Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:47.297	+0.415	6	344.0	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.326	+0.444	7	338.6	Soft / Soft
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.377	+0.495	7	342.9	Medium / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.509	+0.627	7	338.6	Medium / Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:47.519	+0.637	6	340.7	Medium / Medium
10	Alex Marquez	01:47.603	+0.721	7	341.8	Medium / Soft
11	Iker Lecuona	01:47.621	+0.739	7	339.6	Medium / Soft
12	Joan Mir	01:47.642	+0.760	7	338.6	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.565	—	11	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:49.392	—	6	Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.656	+0.091	11	336.5	Soft / Medium	1:49.407	+0.01%	9	Medium
3	Alex Marquez	01:48.795	+0.230	11	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:50.408	+0.93%	8	Soft
4	Pol Espargaro	01:49.151	+0.586	11	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:50.138	+0.68%	8	Soft
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.166	+0.601	11	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.214	+0.649	10	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:49.924	+0.49%	8	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:49.231	+0.666	8	334.4	Soft / Soft	1:49.494	+0.09%	6	Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:49.304	+0.739	11	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:49.444	+0.05%	9	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:49.328	+0.763	11	331.3	Soft / Soft	1:49.526	+0.12%	9	Soft
10	Bradley Smith	01:49.356	+0.791	11	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:49.985	+0.54%	8	Soft
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.362	+0.797	11	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:51.048	+1.51%	8	Medium
12	Iker Lecuona	01:49.383	+0.818	11	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.695	+0.28%	8	Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:49.395	+0.830	9	333.4	Soft / Soft	1:49.760	+0.34%	6	Soft
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.427	+0.862	11	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:50.886	+1.37%	8	Soft
15	Brad Binder	01:49.436	+0.871	11	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:50.203	+0.74%	9	Soft
16	Johann Zarco	01:49.438	+0.873	11	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:50.705	+1.20%	8	Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.525	+0.960	11	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:50.099	+0.65%	8	Soft
18	Tito Rabat	01:49.572	+1.007	10	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:52.327	+2.68%	7	Medium
19	Stefan Bradl	01:49.615	+1.050	11	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:50.195	+0.73%	7	Soft
20	Jack Miller	01:49.814	+1.249	11	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:50.568	+1.08%	7	Medium
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:50.977	+2.412	10	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:54.494	+4.66%	5	Soft

Race · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	41:47.652	25	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.841	+0.04%	21	Medium
2	Alex Rins	+2.205	20	23	Soft / Soft	1:48.888	+0.09%	21	Soft
3	Joan Mir	+5.376	16	23	Medium / Soft	1:48.908	+0.10%	21	Soft
4	Pol Espargaro	+10.299	13	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.290	+0.46%	21	Soft
5	Johann Zarco	+12.915	11	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.410	+0.57%	21	Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	+12.953	10	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.327	+0.49%	21	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	+14.262	9	23	Soft / Soft	1:49.594	+0.73%	20	Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	+14.720	8	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.633	+0.77%	21	Medium
9	Iker Lecuona	+17.177	7	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.489	+0.64%	21	Soft
10	Danilo Petrucci	+19.519	6	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.586	+0.73%	21	Soft
11	Cal Crutchlow	+19.708	5	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.630	+0.77%	21	Soft
12	Stefan Bradl	+20.591	4	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.559	+0.70%	21	Soft
13	Andrea Dovizioso	+22.222	3	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.515	+0.66%	21	Soft
14	Tito Rabat	+26.496	2	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.820	+0.94%	21	Medium
15	Bradley Smith	+31.816	1	23	Medium / Soft	1:50.161	+1.26%	21	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	20	Medium / Soft	1:49.315	+0.48%	18	Soft
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	13	Hard / Soft	1:48.795	—	11	Soft
Out on lap 1	Brad Binder		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	5	Soft / Soft	—			—
Out on lap 1	Jack Miller		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Takaaki Nakagami		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Franco Morbidelli	1:48.607*	—	+0.512	Medium	4
Takaaki Nakagami	1:48.796*	+0.189	+0.359	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	1:49.019*	+0.412	+0.292	Medium	3
Cal Crutchlow	1:49.100*	+0.493	+0.729	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:49.209	+0.602	+0.275	Medium	10
Joan Mir	1:49.232	+0.625	+0.562	Medium	6
Danilo Petrucci	1:49.542*	+0.935	+0.574	Medium	4
Iker Lecuona	1:49.576*	+0.969	+0.094	Medium	4
Stefan Bradl	1:49.645*	+1.038	+0.530	Medium	3
Tito Rabat	1:49.710	+1.103	+0.229	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jack Miller	57%	4
2	Aleix Espargaro	43%	3
3	Brad Binder	32%	5
4	Andrea Dovizioso	19%	7
5	Tito Rabat	18%	10
6	Pol Espargaro	9%	1 ✓
7	Danilo Petrucci	9%	9
8	Francesco Bagnaia	4%	8
9	Stefan Bradl	2%	6
10	Bradley Smith	3%	11
11	Johann Zarco	2%	2 ✓

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Franco Morbidelli	38%	70%	91%	2
2	Takaaki Nakagami	25%	51%	84%	1
3	Fabio Quartararo	17%	50%	81%	6
4	Maverick Viñales	4%	33%	68%	4
5	Alex Marquez	3%	27%	54%	10
6	Iker Lecuona	7%	21%	56%	11
7	Alex Rins	2%	11%	43%	3
8	Miguel Oliveira	2%	12%	35%	8
9	Cal Crutchlow	1%	7%	29%	7
10	Joan Mir	2%	7%	21%	12
11	Pol Espargaro	1%	9%	25%	9
12	Johann Zarco	0%	2%	15%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Takaaki Nakagami	1	32%	63%	78%	88%	10%	—
Franco Morbidelli	2	20%	47%	62%	75%	22%	1
Alex Rins	3	14%	43%	61%	77%	20%	2
Maverick Viñales	4	12%	39%	61%	83%	12%	7
Johann Zarco	5	7%	30%	52%	78%	16%	5
Fabio Quartararo	6	5%	23%	45%	76%	18%	8
Cal Crutchlow	7	3%	16%	32%	65%	28%	11
Miguel Oliveira	8	2%	13%	31%	73%	16%	6
Pol Espargaro	9	2%	9%	21%	64%	21%	4
Alex Marquez	10	1%	7%	18%	68%	7%	—
Iker Lecuona	11	1%	4%	11%	42%	36%	9
Joan Mir	12	1%	3%	9%	48%	19%	3
Aleix Espargaro	13	1%	2%	6%	38%	25%	—
Jack Miller	14	0%	1%	4%	31%	26%	—
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	3%	28%	20%	—
Stefan Bradl	16	0%	1%	2%	23%	20%	12
Andrea Dovizioso	17	0%	0%	2%	17%	12%	13
Francesco Bagnaia	18	0%	0%	1%	9%	33%	—
Danilo Petrucci	19	0%	0%	0%	8%	20%	10
Tito Rabat	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	20%	14
Bradley Smith	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	14%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Takaaki Nakagami +0.03%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Franco Morbidelli +0.26%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.14%	Maverick Viñales +0.17%
S3	Takaaki Nakagami	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.31%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Takaaki Nakagami +0.03%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Franco Morbidelli +0.26%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.14%	Maverick Viñales +0.17%
S3	Takaaki Nakagami	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.31%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%

Fastest per sector: 2020

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

Pending · no data yet

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Joan Mir	137	—
2	Fabio Quartararo	123	−14
3	Maverick Viñales	118	−19
4	Franco Morbidelli	112	−25
5	Andrea Dovizioso	109	−28
6	Alex Rins	105	−32

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 29% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2020	6/21	29%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet