Round 17 of 19 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2019

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

25.10 – 27.10.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	40:43.729	25
2	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+11.413	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+14.499	16
4	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+14.554	13
5	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+14.817	11
6	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+15.280	10
7	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+15.294	9
8	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+15.841	8
9	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+16.032	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+16.590	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+24.145	5
12	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+26.654	4
13	Johann Zarco	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+26.758	3
14	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+44.912	2
15	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+44.968	1
16	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+66.045	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Maverick Viñales · 32%	Marc Marquez · 15% · from P3	0.72 / 0.72	2.8 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:30.019	—	+0.292	Soft	24
Marc Marquez	1:30.164	+0.145	+0.210	Soft	25
Joan Mir	1:30.511	+0.492	+0.562	Hard	25
Cal Crutchlow	1:30.515	+0.496	+0.729	Hard	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.579	+0.560	+0.221	Hard	25
Jack Miller	1:30.686	+0.667	+0.105	Hard	25
Andrea Dovizioso	1:30.737	+0.718	+0.226	Hard	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.818	+0.799	+0.209	Soft	25
Alex Rins	1:30.831	+0.812	+0.217	Hard	25
Valentino Rossi	1:30.847	+0.828	+0.508	Soft	25
Andrea Iannone	1:30.878	+0.859	+0.224	Soft	25
Pol Espargaro	1:30.903	+0.884	+0.406	Hard	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.945	+0.926	+0.512	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:31.094	+1.075	+0.344	Soft	25
Hafizh Syahrin	1:31.752	+1.733	+0.491	Hard	25
Karel Abraham	1:31.957	+1.938	—	Soft	25
Mika Kallio	1:32.089	+2.070	+0.462	Hard	22
Jorge Lorenzo	1:32.396	+2.377	+1.158	Soft	25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

2/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

11.413 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Francesco Bagnaia, from P15 to P4.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Pol Espargaro (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	15:00:49	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:00:49	Danilo Petrucci	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:01:29		Jump start	Jump start
Race	15:06:46	Tito Rabat	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:40:51	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Valentino Rossi (started P4).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Pol Espargaro	17	10	+7
Andrea Iannone	8	3	+5
Cal Crutchlow	6	2	+4
Maverick Viñales	1	6	−5
Franco Morbidelli	11	13	−2
Marc Marquez	3	4	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	15→4	+7.8
Joan Mir	13→5	+5.5
Jack Miller	9→3	+5.0
Johann Zarco	14→13	−1.8
Valentino Rossi	4→8	−3.2
Aleix Espargaro	7→10	−3.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	53%	+0.99%	+0.057	1	1	9.9
Hard	47%	+0.80%	+0.062	0	2	7.1

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

14.5 °C

Air

max 15.4 °C

67%

Humidity

0.4 mm

Rain

24 km/h

Wind

gusts 58 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 25.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:38.957	—	20	323.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:40.357	—	12	Wet-Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:39.104	+0.147	15	315.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.077	+0.72%	6	Wet-Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:39.342	+0.385	17	316.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.048	+0.69%	6	Wet-Soft
4	Valentino Rossi	01:39.885	+0.928	19	313.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.588	+1.23%	7	Wet-Soft
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.910	+0.953	16	325.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.666	+1.30%	12	Wet-Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.320	+1.363	23	315.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.296	+1.93%	16	Wet-Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.575	+1.618	19	313.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.555	+1.19%	15	Wet-Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:40.587	+1.630	20	323.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.739	+1.38%	14	Wet-Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.675	+1.718	21	314.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.300	+1.94%	17	Wet-Soft
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.690	+1.733	18	315.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.849	+1.49%	13	Wet-Soft
11	Karel Abraham	01:40.799	+1.842	17	304.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.214	+3.84%	13	Wet-Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:40.860	+1.903	21	319.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.336	+0.98%	13	Wet-Soft
13	Johann Zarco	01:41.052	+2.095	21	323.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.010	+1.65%	16	Wet-Soft
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:41.073	+2.116	16	315.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.935	+3.57%	12	Wet-Soft
15	Joan Mir	01:41.118	+2.161	20	306.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.429	+3.06%	13	Wet-Soft
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.180	+2.223	21	316.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.476	+2.11%	17	Wet-Soft
17	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.371	+2.414	21	309.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.374	+2.01%	15	Wet-Soft
18	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.958	+3.001	16	315.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.062	+2.70%	5	Wet-Soft
19	Mika Kallio	01:42.306	+3.349	20	302.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.938	+3.57%	11	Wet-Soft
20	Tito Rabat	01:43.547	+4.590	21	300.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.106	+4.73%	15	Wet-Soft
21	Andrea Iannone	01:43.779	+4.822	13	318.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.510	+7.13%	5	Wet-Soft
22	Aleix Espargaro	01:44.148	+5.191	13	322.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.125	+5.75%	6	Wet-Soft

FP2 · 25.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:28.824	—	25	331.3	Medium / Soft	1:30.110	—	17	Medium
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.320	+0.496	22	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.321	+1.34%	10	Medium
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.325	+0.501	22	341.8	Hard / Soft	1:30.909	+0.89%	12	Hard
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:29.327	+0.503	20	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:30.488	+0.42%	11	Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:29.344	+0.520	20	339.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:29.421	+0.597	19	339.6	Hard / Soft	1:30.595	+0.54%	12	Hard
7	Valentino Rossi	01:29.436	+0.612	21	333.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.384	+1.41%	6	Medium
8	Alex Rins	01:29.472	+0.648	21	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:31.592	+1.65%	12	Medium
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.718	+0.894	21	330.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.403	+1.44%	12	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.791	+0.967	18	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:31.996	+2.09%	5	Medium
11	Joan Mir	01:29.875	+1.051	24	334.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.183	+1.19%	13	Hard
12	Karel Abraham	01:29.997	+1.173	20	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:32.041	+2.14%	5	Medium
13	Andrea Iannone	01:30.170	+1.346	18	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:31.132	+1.13%	5	Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.426	+1.602	17	338.6	Soft / Hard	1:32.726	+2.90%	6	Medium
15	Johann Zarco	01:30.441	+1.617	21	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Jorge Lorenzo	01:30.706	+1.882	19	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Pol Espargaro	01:30.859	+2.035	17	336.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.066	+2.17%	5	Medium
18	Mika Kallio	01:30.865	+2.041	21	331.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:30.940	+2.116	21	330.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.796	+2.98%	12	missing
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.404	+2.580	21	330.3	Medium / Hard	1:33.091	+3.31%	6	Medium
21	Tito Rabat	01:31.459	+2.635	22	334.4	Soft / Soft	1:34.080	+4.41%	12	Medium
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP3 · 26.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:31.338	—	7	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:31.577	+0.239	7	341.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Pol Espargaro	01:32.989	+1.651	15	338.6	Soft / Hard	1:34.024	—	4	Hard
4	Johann Zarco	01:33.630	+2.292	11	326.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Jack Miller	01:34.248	+2.910	7	325.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:34.844	+3.506	7	313.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Mika Kallio	01:35.051	+3.713	10	326.3	Soft / Hard	—			—
8	Alex Rins	01:35.263	+3.925	4	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:35.473	+4.135	8	320.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:35.747	+4.409	8	317.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Karel Abraham	01:35.990	+4.652	7	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Andrea Iannone		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
—	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.649	+16.311	4	305.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Hafizh Syahrin		—	0	0.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Tito Rabat		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Valentino Rossi		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP4 · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:31.185	—	8	331.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.610	+0.47%	6	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:31.536	+0.351	10	328.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.178	—	8	Soft
3	Pol Espargaro	01:31.947	+0.762	8	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.420	+1.35%	4	Soft
4	Alex Rins	01:32.114	+0.929	8	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:32.794	+0.67%	5	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.116	+0.931	10	326.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.402	+1.33%	8	Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:32.326	+1.141	10	325.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.263	+1.18%	8	Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	01:32.759	+1.574	8	327.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.742	+1.70%	6	Soft
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.814	+1.629	7	327.3	Medium / Hard	1:33.659	+1.61%	4	Hard
9	Joan Mir	01:32.816	+1.631	8	328.3	Medium / Hard	1:34.256	+2.25%	6	Hard
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.862	+1.677	5	316.8	Medium / Hard	—			—
11	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.863	+1.678	5	338.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.964	+1.779	4	327.3	Soft / Hard	—			—
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.970	+1.785	6	320.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Mika Kallio	01:33.096	+1.911	7	321.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.702	+1.65%	5	Soft
15	Jack Miller	01:33.295	+2.110	6	328.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
16	Andrea Iannone	01:33.359	+2.174	6	325.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.576	+2.391	6	315.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.099	+2.914	6	318.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Karel Abraham	01:34.975	+3.790	5	327.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
20	Jorge Lorenzo	01:35.589	+4.404	7	326.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:36.142	+4.957	6	302.6	Soft / Hard	—			—
22	Tito Rabat	01:37.557	+6.372	8	317.7	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:28.949	—	8	337.5	Soft / Soft
2	Andrea Iannone	01:29.555	+0.606	7	339.6	Medium / Soft
3	Joan Mir	01:29.712	+0.763	8	339.6	Soft / Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:30.008	+1.059	8	340.7	Medium / Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.075	+1.126	7	341.8	Medium / Soft
6	Karel Abraham	01:30.165	+1.216	7	346.1	Soft / Soft
7	Pol Espargaro	01:30.180	+1.231	8	341.8	Medium / Soft
8	Mika Kallio	01:30.495	+1.546	8	335.4	Medium / Soft
9	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.179	+2.230	8	338.6	Soft / Soft
10	Hafizh Syahrin	01:31.285	+2.336	6	330.3	Soft / Soft
11	Tito Rabat	01:31.941	+2.992	8	334.4	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 27.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:28.492	—	8	339.6	— / —
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.043	+0.551	8	337.5	— / —
3	Marc Marquez	01:29.216	+0.724	8	340.7	Medium / Soft
4	Valentino Rossi	01:29.243	+0.751	9	338.6	Soft / Soft
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:29.339	+0.847	8	342.9	Medium / Soft
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.535	+1.043	8	346.1	Medium / Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.558	+1.066	8	341.8	— / —
8	Andrea Iannone	01:29.581	+1.089	7	344.0	— / —
9	Jack Miller	01:29.615	+1.123	7	346.1	— / —
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.667	+1.175	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.716	+1.224	9	336.5	Soft / Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:29.947	+1.455	8	342.9	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 27.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:29.396	—	12	339.6	Soft / Soft	1:30.334	—	6	Hard
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.067	+0.671	10	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.938	+0.67%	6	Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:30.084	+0.688	12	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:30.698	+0.40%	7	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:30.099	+0.703	12	341.8	Medium / Hard	1:30.994	+0.73%	6	Hard
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.268	+0.872	13	336.5	Soft / Soft	1:30.715	+0.42%	11	Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.466	+1.070	13	346.1	Medium / Hard	1:31.254	+1.02%	10	Hard
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.502	+1.106	12	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.806	+0.52%	10	Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:30.545	+1.149	13	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:31.037	+0.78%	7	Hard
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.576	+1.180	11	340.7	Medium / Hard	1:31.371	+1.15%	7	Hard
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.616	+1.220	11	341.8	Medium / Hard	1:30.997	+0.73%	6	Hard
11	Valentino Rossi	01:30.691	+1.295	13	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.184	+0.94%	11	Soft
12	Andrea Iannone	01:30.704	+1.308	10	340.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Karel Abraham	01:30.750	+1.354	12	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.944	+4.00%	10	Soft
14	Joan Mir	01:30.754	+1.358	13	338.6	Soft / Hard	1:31.450	+1.24%	10	Hard
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.835	+1.439	12	341.8	Medium / Hard	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	01:31.031	+1.635	10	339.6	Soft / Hard	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	01:31.047	+1.651	11	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.335	+1.11%	7	Soft
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:31.387	+1.991	7	326.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.745	+2.67%	5	Hard
19	Mika Kallio	01:31.581	+2.185	13	333.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.776	+1.60%	11	Soft
20	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.236	+2.840	11	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:32.786	+2.71%	5	Soft
21	Tito Rabat	01:32.970	+3.574	12	334.4	Soft / Soft	1:36.390	+6.70%	6	Soft

Race · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	40:43.729	25	27	Hard / Soft	1:30.164	+0.16%	25	Soft
2	Cal Crutchlow	+11.413	20	27	Hard / Hard	1:30.515	+0.55%	25	Hard
3	Jack Miller	+14.499	16	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.686	+0.74%	25	Hard
4	Francesco Bagnaia	+14.554	13	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.579	+0.62%	25	Hard
5	Joan Mir	+14.817	11	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.511	+0.55%	25	Hard
6	Andrea Iannone	+15.280	10	27	Hard / Soft	1:30.878	+0.95%	25	Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	+15.294	9	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.737	+0.80%	25	Hard
8	Valentino Rossi	+15.841	8	27	Medium / Soft	1:30.847	+0.92%	25	Soft
9	Alex Rins	+16.032	7	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.831	+0.90%	25	Hard
10	Aleix Espargaro	+16.590	6	27	Medium / Soft	1:30.818	+0.89%	25	Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	+24.145	5	27	Medium / Soft	1:30.945	+1.03%	25	Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	+26.654	4	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.903	+0.98%	25	Hard
13	Johann Zarco	+26.758	3	27	Medium / Soft	1:31.094	+1.19%	25	Soft
14	Karel Abraham	+44.912	2	27	Medium / Soft	1:31.957	+2.15%	25	Soft
15	Hafizh Syahrin	+44.968	1	27	Medium / Hard	1:31.752	+1.93%	25	Hard
16	Jorge Lorenzo	+66.045	0	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.396	+2.64%	25	Soft
Out on lap 1	Danilo Petrucci		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Fabio Quartararo		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	26	Soft / Soft	1:30.019	—	24	Soft
Retired	Mika Kallio		0	24	Medium / Hard	1:32.089	+2.30%	22	Hard
Retired	Tito Rabat		0	3	Medium / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Hafizh Syahrin	1:32.165*	—	+0.491	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.610*	+0.445	+0.193	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Joan Mir	59%	3
2	Karel Abraham	42%	6
3	Andrea Iannone	33%	2 ✓
4	Francesco Bagnaia	19%	5
5	Johann Zarco	18%	4
6	Jorge Lorenzo	8%	9
7	Pol Espargaro	10%	7
8	Mika Kallio	4%	8
9	Hafizh Syahrin	2%	10
10	Tito Rabat	3%	11
11	Fabio Quartararo	2%	1 ✓

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	37%	70%	90%	1
2	Andrea Dovizioso	24%	51%	85%	10
3	Cal Crutchlow	17%	50%	83%	6
4	Danilo Petrucci	4%	33%	69%	5
5	Jack Miller	3%	28%	55%	9
6	Marc Marquez	7%	22%	55%	3
7	Valentino Rossi	1%	11%	45%	4
8	Alex Rins	2%	12%	36%	12
9	Franco Morbidelli	1%	7%	28%	11
10	Aleix Espargaro	2%	7%	21%	7
11	Andrea Iannone	1%	7%	22%	8
12	Fabio Quartararo	0%	1%	14%	2

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Maverick Viñales	1	32%	62%	77%	87%	12%	—
Fabio Quartararo	2	20%	50%	66%	78%	19%	—
Marc Marquez	3	15%	47%	66%	85%	13%	1
Valentino Rossi	4	11%	40%	63%	86%	10%	8
Danilo Petrucci	5	7%	28%	51%	77%	19%	—
Cal Crutchlow	6	5%	19%	38%	66%	28%	2
Aleix Espargaro	7	3%	17%	33%	66%	25%	10
Andrea Iannone	8	3%	11%	26%	63%	26%	6
Jack Miller	9	1%	7%	19%	59%	26%	3
Andrea Dovizioso	10	1%	7%	19%	65%	13%	7
Franco Morbidelli	11	1%	5%	13%	56%	19%	11
Alex Rins	12	0%	3%	9%	48%	21%	9
Joan Mir	13	0%	2%	7%	40%	21%	5
Johann Zarco	14	0%	1%	5%	37%	13%	13
Francesco Bagnaia	15	0%	1%	2%	23%	33%	4
Karel Abraham	16	0%	0%	2%	20%	30%	14
Pol Espargaro	17	0%	0%	1%	16%	21%	12
Mika Kallio	18	0%	0%	1%	9%	35%	—
Jorge Lorenzo	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	11%	16
Hafizh Syahrin	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	20%	15
Tito Rabat	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	18%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	350	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	231	−119
3	Alex Rins	176	−174
4	Maverick Viñales	176	−174
5	Danilo Petrucci	169	−181
6	Fabio Quartararo	163	−187

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

108

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

20/27

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

1.543 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Aleix Espargaro, from P19 to P9.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Jack Miller (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:30.381	—	+0.292	Hard	25
Andrea Iannone	1:30.550	+0.169	+0.224	Hard	25
Alvaro Bautista	1:30.570	+0.189	+0.086	Hard	25
Andrea Dovizioso	1:30.578	+0.197	+0.226	Hard	25
Alex Rins	1:30.595	+0.214	+0.217	Hard	25
Jack Miller	1:30.645	+0.264	+0.105	Hard	25
Valentino Rossi	1:30.722	+0.341	+0.508	Hard	25
Hafizh Syahrin	1:30.762	+0.381	+0.491	Hard	16
Bradley Smith	1:30.915	+0.534	+0.085	Hard	25
Danilo Petrucci	1:30.979	+0.598	+0.574	Hard	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	70%	+0.40%	+0.009	1	3	8.4
Soft	30%	+1.39%	+0.024	0	0	13.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.