Round 16 of 19 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2019

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

18.10 – 20.10.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	42:41.492	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+0.870	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+1.325	16
4	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+2.608	13
5	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+9.140	11
6	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+9.187	10
7	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+9.306	9
8	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+10.695	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+14.216	7
10	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+18.909	6
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+25.554	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+27.870	4
13	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+29.983	3
14	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+31.232	2
15	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+32.546	1
16	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+37.482	0
17	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+40.410	0
18	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+43.458	0
19	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+46.206	0
20	Sylvain Guintoli	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+50.235	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 31% ✓	Marc Marquez · 31% · from P1	0.89 / 0.89	2.6 / 2.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:46.386	—	+0.210	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:46.417	+0.031	+0.292	Soft	22
Andrea Dovizioso	1:46.454	+0.068	+0.226	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:46.507	+0.121	+0.275	Soft	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:46.704	+0.318	+0.512	Soft	21
Alex Rins	1:46.705	+0.319	+0.217	Medium	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:46.768	+0.382	+0.729	Medium	22
Valentino Rossi	1:46.768	+0.382	+0.508	Medium	18
Joan Mir	1:46.827	+0.441	+0.562	Medium	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:46.940	+0.554	+0.574	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:47.136	+0.750	+0.105	Soft	22
Pol Espargaro	1:47.439	+1.053	+0.406	Soft	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:47.444	+1.058	+0.193	Medium	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:47.498	+1.112	+0.221	Soft	22
Mika Kallio	1:47.681	+1.295	+0.462	Soft	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:47.725	+1.339	+0.209	Soft	22
Andrea Iannone	1:47.732	+1.346	+0.224	Soft	5
Takaaki Nakagami	1:47.928	+1.542	+0.359	Medium	22
Jorge Lorenzo	1:47.946	+1.560	+1.158	Medium	22
Hafizh Syahrin	1:47.993	+1.607	+0.491	Medium	22
Karel Abraham	1:48.018	+1.632	—	Soft	22
Sylvain Guintoli	1:48.340	+1.954	—	Medium	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.870 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P11 to P7.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Cal Crutchlow (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	15:01:57		Jump start	Jump start
Race	15:15:05	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:36:47	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Mika Kallio	17	12	+5
Andrea Iannone	22	17	+5
Pol Espargaro	15	11	+4
Valentino Rossi	10	14	−4
Maverick Viñales	4	7	−3
Karel Abraham	18	21	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Andrea Dovizioso	7→3	+3.7
Alex Rins	11→7	+2.3
Fabio Quartararo	3→2	+2.1
Sylvain Guintoli	21→20	−4.3
Takaaki Nakagami	13→16	−5.5
Aleix Espargaro	9→15	−7.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	55%	+0.47%	−0.017	1	2	10.6
Soft	46%	+1.02%	+0.007	0	1	10.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

20.0 °C

Air

max 21.5 °C

69%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 35 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:45.572	—	20	306.8	— / —	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.830	+0.258	18	303.3	Soft / Soft	1:46.826	—	6	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.983	+0.411	20	304.2	Soft / Medium	1:47.960	+1.06%	6	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:46.035	+0.463	19	310.3	— / —	—			—
5	Alex Rins	01:46.065	+0.493	19	310.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Joan Mir	01:46.125	+0.553	20	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:47.659	+0.78%	12	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:46.197	+0.625	16	311.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.206	+0.634	20	311.2	— / —	—			—
9	Pol Espargaro	01:46.215	+0.643	15	310.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.289	+0.717	18	309.4	Medium / Soft	1:48.040	+1.14%	5	Medium
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.414	+0.842	13	307.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Valentino Rossi	01:46.420	+0.848	19	302.5	— / —	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:46.535	+0.963	19	308.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Andrea Iannone	01:46.745	+1.173	17	304.2	Soft / Soft	1:49.168	+2.19%	4	Medium
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.763	+1.191	19	305.9	Medium / Soft	1:48.677	+1.73%	5	Medium
16	Mika Kallio	01:46.898	+1.326	14	307.6	— / —	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.942	+1.370	18	303.3	— / —	—			—
18	Karel Abraham	01:47.327	+1.755	18	307.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.946	+2.92%	10	Medium
19	Jorge Lorenzo	01:47.438	+1.866	17	307.6	Soft / Medium	1:48.402	+1.48%	5	Medium
20	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.496	+1.924	18	307.6	— / —	—			—
21	Tito Rabat	01:48.097	+2.525	20	306.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:48.358	+2.786	17	300.8	Soft / Soft	1:50.213	+3.17%	5	Medium
Disqualified	Sylvain Guintoli		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 18.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.764	—	19	302.5	Medium / Soft	1:46.671	+0.56%	11	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:45.085	+0.321	18	305.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:45.100	+0.336	17	308.5	Soft / Soft	1:46.081	—	5	Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:45.414	+0.650	19	309.4	Soft / Soft	1:47.473	+1.31%	7	Medium
5	Valentino Rossi	01:45.466	+0.702	17	305.0	Soft / Soft	1:46.981	+0.85%	5	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.562	+0.798	20	302.5	Soft / Soft	1:46.612	+0.50%	12	Soft
7	Jack Miller	01:45.577	+0.813	15	311.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:45.619	+0.855	18	308.5	Soft / Soft	1:47.681	+1.51%	10	Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:45.641	+0.877	20	308.5	Soft / Soft	1:47.408	+1.25%	5	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.721	+0.957	15	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:47.136	+1.00%	4	Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:45.730	+0.966	18	309.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:45.804	+1.040	17	308.5	Medium / Soft	1:48.033	+1.84%	5	Medium
13	Pol Espargaro	01:46.020	+1.256	17	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:47.249	+1.10%	5	Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.330	+1.566	18	309.4	Soft / Soft	1:47.538	+1.37%	6	Soft
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.557	+1.793	15	304.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Karel Abraham	01:46.576	+1.812	17	306.8	Soft / Soft	1:48.956	+2.71%	4	Soft
17	Jorge Lorenzo	01:46.661	+1.897	17	305.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.800	+2.036	16	305.0	Soft / Soft	1:48.503	+2.28%	5	Soft
19	Andrea Iannone	01:46.969	+2.205	15	303.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Tito Rabat	01:47.158	+2.394	19	307.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.093	+2.84%	12	Soft
21	Mika Kallio	01:47.312	+2.548	18	306.8	Soft / Soft	1:49.177	+2.92%	5	Soft
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:47.974	+3.210	17	302.5	Soft / Soft	1:49.670	+3.38%	5	Medium
Disqualified	Sylvain Guintoli		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP3 · 19.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:54.710	—	15	300.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:56.965	+0.94%	10	Wet-Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:54.884	+0.174	16	299.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:55.872	—	11	Wet-Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.175	+0.465	19	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:57.457	+1.37%	14	Wet-Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:55.458	+0.748	19	295.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:56.692	+0.71%	14	Wet-Soft
5	Sylvain Guintoli	01:55.590	+0.880	15	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:57.929	+1.78%	8	Wet-Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.722	+1.012	18	303.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:57.378	+1.30%	14	Wet-Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:55.796	+1.086	18	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:57.720	+1.60%	12	Wet-Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:55.811	+1.101	19	293.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:56.913	+0.90%	15	Wet-Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:55.824	+1.114	14	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:58.504	+2.27%	10	Wet-Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.860	+1.150	19	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:58.484	+2.25%	15	Wet-Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:55.972	+1.262	18	300.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:58.741	+2.48%	12	Wet-Soft
12	Valentino Rossi	01:56.230	+1.520	18	291.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:57.204	+1.15%	12	Wet-Soft
13	Mika Kallio	01:56.243	+1.533	19	295.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:58.753	+2.49%	15	Wet-Soft
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.397	+1.687	14	293.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:00.761	+4.22%	5	Wet-Soft
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:56.537	+1.827	18	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:58.671	+2.42%	13	Wet-Soft
16	Karel Abraham	01:56.809	+2.099	17	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:59.529	+3.16%	12	Wet-Soft
17	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.812	+2.102	18	293.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:00.258	+3.79%	12	Wet-Soft
18	Jack Miller	01:56.840	+2.130	9	299.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:58.055	+1.88%	4	Wet-Soft
19	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.176	+2.466	19	300.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:58.642	+2.39%	11	Wet-Soft
20	Andrea Iannone	01:57.226	+2.516	16	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:57.555	+2.845	18	293.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:58.901	+2.61%	13	Wet-Soft
22	Jorge Lorenzo	01:57.605	+2.895	15	295.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:59.360	+3.01%	10	Wet-Soft
23	Tito Rabat	01:58.621	+3.911	17	295.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:59.799	+3.39%	9	Wet-Soft

FP4 · 19.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:48.940	—	12	302.5	Soft / Soft	1:56.160	+2.95%	5	Wet-Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:50.282	+1.342	11	298.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:50.674	+1.734	12	296.7	Soft / Soft	1:52.830	—	4	Soft
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:50.747	+1.807	10	301.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Valentino Rossi	01:50.748	+1.808	12	297.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Pol Espargaro	01:51.306	+2.366	9	303.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Alex Rins	01:51.348	+2.408	12	304.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:51.457	+2.517	12	306.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:51.577	+2.637	8	296.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:51.617	+2.677	12	301.6	Soft / Soft	1:55.392	+2.27%	5	Wet-Medium
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:51.659	+2.719	8	301.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Jack Miller	01:52.068	+3.128	9	305.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Sylvain Guintoli	01:52.203	+3.263	6	299.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:52.411	+3.471	13	297.5	Soft / Soft	1:55.761	+2.60%	6	Wet-Medium
15	Hafizh Syahrin	01:52.932	+3.992	12	295.0	Soft / Soft	1:57.318	+3.98%	5	Wet-Medium
16	Mika Kallio	01:52.934	+3.994	9	296.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Joan Mir	01:54.694	+5.754	7	297.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:56.905	+3.61%	4	Wet-Medium
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.062	+6.122	12	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
19	Karel Abraham	01:55.102	+6.162	8	298.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.651	+6.711	10	298.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
21	Andrea Iannone	01:55.845	+6.905	9	297.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
—	Jorge Lorenzo	01:57.017	+8.077	4	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
Retired	Tito Rabat		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q1 · 19.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.695	—	8	305.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Alex Rins	01:46.964	+0.269	8	304.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.998	+0.303	7	299.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.594	+0.899	8	303.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Pol Espargaro	01:47.654	+0.959	8	305.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.894	+1.199	8	299.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Mika Kallio	01:47.979	+1.284	8	300.8	Soft / Soft	1:48.871	—	5	Soft
8	Karel Abraham	01:48.121	+1.426	8	305.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.492	+1.797	8	305.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Hafizh Syahrin	01:48.522	+1.827	8	297.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Sylvain Guintoli	01:49.186	+2.491	8	302.5	Soft / Soft	1:49.587	+0.66%	5	Soft
12	Andrea Iannone	01:49.243	+2.548	7	298.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Tito Rabat		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q2 · 19.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:45.763	—	8	305.0	Soft / Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.895	+0.132	8	300.0	Soft / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.944	+0.181	8	300.8	Soft / Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:46.090	+0.327	7	300.0	Soft / Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.189	+0.426	8	305.0	Medium / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:46.337	+0.574	8	307.6	Soft / Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.410	+0.647	8	309.4	Soft / Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:46.427	+0.664	6	305.0	Soft / Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.558	+0.795	8	302.5	Soft / Soft
10	Valentino Rossi	01:46.558	+0.795	8	300.8	Soft / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:46.600	+0.837	8	306.8	Soft / missing
12	Joan Mir	01:46.616	+0.853	8	305.9	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 20.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:45.816	—	12	305.9	Medium / Medium	1:46.206	—	10	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.036	+0.220	11	298.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Alex Rins	01:46.282	+0.466	11	306.8	Medium / Medium	1:46.734	+0.50%	8	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.351	+0.535	11	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:46.626	+0.40%	8	Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	01:46.437	+0.621	11	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:47.061	+0.81%	9	Soft
6	Valentino Rossi	01:46.511	+0.695	11	303.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.574	+0.758	11	311.2	Medium / Soft	1:47.108	+0.85%	9	Soft
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.667	+0.851	10	306.8	missing / Medium	—			—
9	Joan Mir	01:46.729	+0.913	11	304.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Andrea Iannone	01:46.797	+0.981	9	300.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:46.799	+0.983	11	305.9	Medium / Soft	1:47.368	+1.09%	8	Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.862	+1.046	11	304.2	Medium / Soft	1:47.770	+1.47%	5	Medium
13	Pol Espargaro	01:46.894	+1.078	11	305.9	Medium / Soft	1:49.791	+3.38%	5	Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.138	+1.322	11	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.093	+1.78%	9	Soft
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.222	+1.406	11	300.8	Medium / Medium	1:47.776	+1.48%	6	Medium
16	Mika Kallio	01:47.467	+1.651	11	305.9	Soft / Soft	1:48.435	+2.10%	9	Soft
17	Jack Miller	01:47.521	+1.705	6	309.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Jorge Lorenzo	01:47.590	+1.774	11	306.8	Soft / Medium	1:48.306	+1.98%	5	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.726	+1.910	9	300.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Sylvain Guintoli	01:47.843	+2.027	11	304.2	Medium / Medium	1:48.144	+1.83%	8	Medium
21	Karel Abraham	01:47.845	+2.029	11	305.9	Soft / Soft	1:48.668	+2.32%	8	Soft
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:47.995	+2.179	11	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:48.451	+2.11%	9	Soft
Retired	Tito Rabat		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Race · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	42:41.492	25	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.386	—	22	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	+0.870	20	24	Medium / Soft	1:46.507	+0.11%	22	Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+1.325	16	24	Soft / Medium	1:46.454	+0.06%	22	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	+2.608	13	24	Medium / Soft	1:46.417	+0.03%	22	Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	+9.140	11	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.768	+0.36%	22	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	+9.187	10	24	Medium / Soft	1:46.704	+0.30%	21	Soft
7	Alex Rins	+9.306	9	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.705	+0.30%	22	Medium
8	Joan Mir	+10.695	8	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.827	+0.42%	22	Medium
9	Danilo Petrucci	+14.216	7	24	Soft / Medium	1:46.940	+0.52%	22	Medium
10	Jack Miller	+18.909	6	24	Soft / Soft	1:47.136	+0.71%	22	Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	+25.554	5	24	Medium / Soft	1:47.439	+0.99%	22	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	+27.870	4	24	Medium / Medium	1:47.444	+0.99%	22	Medium
13	Francesco Bagnaia	+29.983	3	24	Soft / Soft	1:47.498	+1.05%	22	Soft
14	Mika Kallio	+31.232	2	24	Medium / Soft	1:47.681	+1.22%	22	Soft
15	Aleix Espargaro	+32.546	1	24	Medium / Soft	1:47.725	+1.26%	22	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	+37.482	0	24	Soft / Medium	1:47.928	+1.45%	22	Medium
17	Jorge Lorenzo	+40.410	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:47.946	+1.47%	22	Medium
18	Karel Abraham	+43.458	0	24	Medium / Soft	1:48.018	+1.53%	22	Soft
19	Hafizh Syahrin	+46.206	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:47.993	+1.51%	22	Medium
20	Sylvain Guintoli	+50.235	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:48.340	+1.84%	22	Medium
Retired	Andrea Iannone		0	7	Medium / Soft	1:47.732	+1.27%	5	Soft
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	20	Medium / Medium	1:46.768	+0.36%	18	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	1:46.672	—	+0.217	Medium	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:47.159*	+0.487	+0.226	Medium	4
Valentino Rossi	1:47.264*	+0.592	+0.508	Medium	3
Cal Crutchlow	1:47.349	+0.677	+0.729	Medium	5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Rins	58%	2 ✓
2	Cal Crutchlow	42%	1 ✓
3	Pol Espargaro	33%	5
4	Francesco Bagnaia	19%	4
5	Takaaki Nakagami	18%	3
6	Karel Abraham	8%	8
7	Jorge Lorenzo	10%	9
8	Andrea Iannone	4%	12
9	Miguel Oliveira	3%	6
10	Mika Kallio	3%	7
11	Hafizh Syahrin	2%	10
12	Sylvain Guintoli	1%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	38%	70%	90%	3
2	Maverick Viñales	25%	52%	84%	4
3	Marc Marquez	16%	50%	83%	1
4	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	33%	70%	7
5	Valentino Rossi	3%	28%	56%	10
6	Franco Morbidelli	7%	21%	54%	2
7	Jack Miller	1%	12%	44%	6
8	Danilo Petrucci	3%	12%	36%	8
9	Joan Mir	1%	7%	28%	12
10	Aleix Espargaro	3%	7%	21%	9
11	Alex Rins	1%	7%	22%	11
12	Cal Crutchlow	0%	1%	13%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Tito Rabat	23	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	31%	62%	76%	85%	13%	1
Franco Morbidelli	2	21%	52%	68%	79%	19%	6
Fabio Quartararo	3	14%	44%	62%	78%	20%	2
Maverick Viñales	4	12%	40%	62%	84%	12%	4
Cal Crutchlow	5	6%	23%	43%	68%	28%	5
Jack Miller	6	4%	20%	39%	68%	27%	10
Andrea Dovizioso	7	4%	19%	40%	77%	13%	3
Danilo Petrucci	8	3%	13%	31%	69%	20%	9
Aleix Espargaro	9	2%	8%	19%	60%	26%	15
Valentino Rossi	10	1%	6%	19%	68%	9%	—
Alex Rins	11	1%	5%	13%	52%	21%	7
Joan Mir	12	0%	3%	9%	45%	22%	8
Takaaki Nakagami	13	0%	2%	7%	44%	13%	16
Francesco Bagnaia	14	0%	1%	4%	27%	34%	13
Pol Espargaro	15	0%	1%	3%	27%	21%	11
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	1%	3%	23%	10%	12
Mika Kallio	17	0%	0%	1%	12%	36%	14
Karel Abraham	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	30%	18
Jorge Lorenzo	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	11%	17
Hafizh Syahrin	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	21%	19
Sylvain Guintoli	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	13%	20
Andrea Iannone	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	25%	—
Tito Rabat	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	325	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	215	−110
3	Alex Rins	167	−158
4	Maverick Viñales	163	−162
5	Danilo Petrucci	162	−163
6	Valentino Rossi	145	−180

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/24

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.573 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jordi Torres, from P25 to P17.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Marc Marquez (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:46.067	—	+0.210	Medium	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:46.180	+0.113	+0.226	Medium	21
Andrea Iannone	1:46.220	+0.153	+0.224	Medium	12
Alex Rins	1:46.244	+0.177	+0.217	Medium	22
Cal Crutchlow	1:46.272	+0.205	+0.729	Medium	22
Alvaro Bautista	1:46.419	+0.352	+0.086	Soft	22
Valentino Rossi	1:46.488	+0.421	+0.508	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:46.517	+0.450	+0.344	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:46.548	+0.481	+0.292	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:46.637	+0.570	+0.105	Soft	7

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	72%	+0.64%	−0.008	1	3	10.5
Soft	28%	+1.17%	+0.004	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.