Round 2 of 19 Aftermath

Argentine Grand Prix 2019

4.805 m · 25 laps · since 2014

29.03 – 31.03.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:43.688	25
2	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+9.816	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+10.530	16
4	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+12.140	13
5	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+12.563	11
6	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+13.750	10
7	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+18.160	9
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+20.403	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+25.292	7
10	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+25.679	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+25.855	5
12	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+27.497	4
13	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+31.398	3
14	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+32.893	2
15	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+33.372	1
16	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+35.545	0
17	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+38.238	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 30% ✓	Marc Marquez · 30% · from P1	0.83 / 0.83	1.9 / 1.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:39.942	—	+0.210	Soft	23
Cal Crutchlow	1:40.181	+0.239	+0.729	Medium	21
Valentino Rossi	1:40.354	+0.412	+0.508	Medium	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:40.412	+0.470	+0.226	Soft	23
Alex Rins	1:40.426	+0.484	+0.217	Soft	23
Maverick Viñales	1:40.456	+0.514	+0.292	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:40.477	+0.535	+0.105	Soft	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.482	+0.540	+0.512	Medium	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:40.520	+0.578	+0.574	Soft	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.610	+0.668	+0.359	Soft	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.639	+0.697	+0.275	Medium	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.762	+0.820	+0.209	Soft	23
Pol Espargaro	1:40.834	+0.892	+0.406	Medium	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.875	+0.933	+0.193	Medium	23
Jorge Lorenzo	1:40.956	+1.014	+1.158	Soft	23
Tito Rabat	1:41.054	+1.112	+0.229	Soft	13
Francesco Bagnaia	1:41.093	+1.151	+0.221	Soft	23
Hafizh Syahrin	1:41.189	+1.247	+0.491	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:41.298	+1.356	+0.344	Medium	23
Andrea Iannone	1:41.305	+1.363	+0.224	Soft	23
Karel Abraham	1:41.308	+1.366	—	Soft	12
Joan Mir	1:41.344	+1.402	+0.562	Soft	19

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

9.816 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P16 to P5.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Valentino Rossi (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	15:04:55	Cal Crutchlow	Jump start	Jump start
Race	15:04:59	Cal Crutchlow	Ride through	Ride through penalty
Race	15:08:56		Ride through	Ride through
Race	15:24:37	Karel Abraham	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:26:15	Tito Rabat	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:36:25	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:41:48	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:41:48	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Joan Mir	19	13	+6
Alex Rins	16	12	+4
Tito Rabat	20	16	+4
Jorge Lorenzo	12	21	−9
Fabio Quartararo	7	10	−3
Karel Abraham	15	18	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	16→5	+7.5
Valentino Rossi	4→2	+2.8
Danilo Petrucci	10→6	+2.6
Fabio Quartararo	7→8	−1.3
Jorge Lorenzo	12→12	−2.1
Cal Crutchlow	8→13	−5.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	64%	+0.74%	−0.002	1	2	7.8
Medium	36%	+0.80%	+0.013	0	1	10.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.5 °C

Air

max 27.1 °C

75%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

5 km/h

Wind

gusts 18 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 29.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.827	—	18	329.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Jack Miller	01:40.180	+0.353	17	329.8	Soft / Medium	1:41.071	—	6	Medium
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.215	+0.388	18	332.0	Medium / Medium	1:41.928	+0.85%	6	Hard
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.319	+0.492	21	323.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Andrea Iannone	01:40.366	+0.539	18	326.7	Soft / Medium	1:44.794	+3.68%	6	Hard
6	Johann Zarco	01:40.387	+0.560	18	323.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.974	+0.89%	10	Medium
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.595	+0.768	17	327.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.676	+0.849	19	324.4	Medium / Soft	1:41.573	+0.50%	7	Medium
9	Alex Rins	01:40.821	+0.994	20	326.9	Medium / Medium	1:42.182	+1.10%	10	Medium
10	Valentino Rossi	01:40.827	+1.000	20	325.9	Soft / Medium	1:41.717	+0.64%	6	Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.857	+1.030	18	325.1	Soft / Medium	1:43.182	+2.09%	5	Medium
12	Pol Espargaro	01:41.066	+1.239	20	327.5	Soft / Medium	1:42.778	+1.69%	10	Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.303	+1.476	16	328.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.340	+1.513	18	330.9	Soft / Medium	1:43.157	+2.06%	5	Medium
15	Tito Rabat	01:41.509	+1.682	19	325.1	Soft / Medium	1:42.540	+1.45%	11	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.513	+1.686	19	322.5	Medium / Medium	1:42.174	+1.09%	5	Medium
17	Karel Abraham	01:41.641	+1.814	17	326.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.750	+0.67%	4	Medium
18	Maverick Viñales	01:41.657	+1.830	21	323.5	Medium / Medium	1:42.506	+1.42%	12	Medium
19	Joan Mir	01:41.692	+1.865	18	328.6	Medium / Medium	1:42.779	+1.69%	5	Medium
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.768	+1.941	14	328.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.875	+2.048	17	326.9	Soft / Medium	1:43.588	+2.49%	5	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:42.679	+2.852	20	321.2	Soft / Medium	1:44.089	+2.99%	12	Medium

FP2 · 29.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.181	—	21	331.2	Medium / Soft	1:42.251	+2.63%	11	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:39.190	+0.009	16	332.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:39.345	+0.164	19	328.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.346	+0.165	20	334.4	Hard / Soft	1:40.555	+0.93%	9	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.357	+0.176	21	325.7	Hard / Soft	1:40.732	+1.11%	13	Medium
6	Valentino Rossi	01:39.441	+0.260	21	328.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.728	+1.10%	12	Medium
7	Alex Rins	01:39.451	+0.270	21	329.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.490	+0.86%	11	Soft
8	Marc Marquez	01:39.497	+0.316	19	333.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.629	—	11	Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.503	+0.322	19	327.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.380	+0.75%	9	Medium
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.629	+0.448	19	328.3	Soft / Soft	1:41.547	+1.93%	5	Medium
11	Andrea Iannone	01:39.654	+0.473	15	327.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.697	+0.516	18	332.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.740	+0.559	18	329.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.052	+1.43%	9	Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.799	+0.618	17	329.2	Soft / Soft	1:41.353	+1.73%	5	Medium
15	Joan Mir	01:39.946	+0.765	21	330.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	01:39.951	+0.770	20	331.3	Hard / Soft	1:41.544	+1.92%	9	Medium
17	Johann Zarco	01:39.956	+0.775	19	326.3	Soft / Soft	1:40.734	+1.11%	11	Medium
18	Karel Abraham	01:39.995	+0.814	17	330.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.448	+1.83%	5	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.006	+0.825	19	324.4	Hard / Soft	1:41.273	+1.65%	5	Medium
20	Tito Rabat	01:40.110	+0.929	20	326.9	Medium / Soft	1:41.871	+2.25%	9	Medium
21	Jorge Lorenzo	01:40.159	+0.978	19	329.8	Soft / Soft	1:41.238	+1.62%	10	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.752	+1.571	18	322.7	Hard / Medium	1:41.381	+1.76%	5	Medium

FP3 · 30.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:38.471	—	21	330.5	Soft / Soft	1:39.277	—	11	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:38.677	+0.206	18	333.7	Soft / Soft	1:39.853	+0.58%	6	Medium
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.726	+0.255	20	332.5	Hard / Soft	1:40.295	+1.03%	5	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:38.828	+0.357	19	324.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:38.869	+0.398	19	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.982	+0.511	20	323.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Valentino Rossi	01:39.181	+0.710	22	324.2	Soft / Soft	1:40.534	+1.27%	8	Medium
8	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.190	+0.719	19	327.4	Hard / Soft	1:40.867	+1.60%	5	Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.202	+0.731	20	326.8	Hard / Soft	1:40.900	+1.64%	12	Medium
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.251	+0.780	20	327.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.290	+0.819	16	329.1	Medium / Soft	1:40.092	+0.82%	6	Soft
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.345	+0.874	17	329.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.547	+1.28%	6	Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.407	+0.936	19	329.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Pol Espargaro	01:39.428	+0.957	20	328.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Alex Rins	01:39.483	+1.012	20	326.4	Medium / Soft	1:40.780	+1.51%	5	Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.552	+1.081	20	324.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Joan Mir	01:39.615	+1.144	20	327.5	Medium / Soft	1:40.540	+1.27%	8	Soft
18	Johann Zarco	01:39.635	+1.164	18	324.9	Hard / Medium	1:39.985	+0.71%	9	Soft
19	Tito Rabat	01:39.920	+1.449	18	329.2	Soft / Soft	1:41.927	+2.67%	12	Soft
20	Andrea Iannone	01:40.480	+2.009	18	322.6	Soft / Soft	1:40.781	+1.52%	4	Soft
21	Karel Abraham	01:40.489	+2.018	18	330.2	Soft / Soft	1:43.319	+4.07%	5	Soft
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.618	+2.147	19	324.7	Hard / Soft	1:40.966	+1.70%	5	Soft

FP4 · 30.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.341	—	13	325.8	— / —	—			—
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.529	+0.188	14	324.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.856	+0.515	13	325.0	Medium / Soft	1:41.002	+0.62%	5	Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.859	+0.518	15	321.7	Hard / Soft	1:42.582	+2.19%	7	Medium
5	Valentino Rossi	01:39.916	+0.575	16	324.1	— / —	—			—
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.974	+0.633	15	328.6	— / —	—			—
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.978	+0.637	15	322.9	Hard / Medium	1:40.735	+0.35%	7	Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:39.992	+0.651	15	321.2	Hard / Soft	1:40.381	—	11	Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	01:40.014	+0.673	14	321.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Jack Miller	01:40.083	+0.742	18	328.2	— / —	—			—
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.168	+0.827	12	322.4	— / —	—			—
12	Joan Mir	01:40.233	+0.892	11	322.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.876	+0.49%	5	Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.247	+0.906	13	316.6	Hard / Soft	1:41.059	+0.68%	5	Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.297	+0.956	14	320.0	Hard / Medium	1:40.794	+0.41%	6	Medium
15	Pol Espargaro	01:40.357	+1.016	15	322.1	— / —	—			—
16	Jorge Lorenzo	01:40.577	+1.236	15	322.4	— / —	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	01:40.632	+1.291	15	319.3	Hard / Medium	1:40.760	+0.38%	6	Medium
18	Andrea Iannone	01:40.669	+1.328	13	322.8	Medium / Medium	1:40.720	+0.34%	4	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.686	+1.345	15	316.7	Hard / Medium	1:40.865	+0.48%	10	Medium
20	Tito Rabat	01:40.714	+1.373	13	325.0	— / —	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:40.907	+1.566	12	321.6	— / —	—			—
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.412	+2.071	15	315.7	Hard / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 30.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.064	—	8	319.5	Hard / Soft
2	Pol Espargaro	01:39.217	+0.153	8	323.5	Hard / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.288	+0.224	7	324.7	Hard / Soft
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.298	+0.234	8	317.4	Hard / Soft
5	Karel Abraham	01:39.331	+0.267	8	324.7	Hard / Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:39.384	+0.320	7	317.8	Hard / Soft
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.387	+0.323	6	321.9	Soft / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:39.571	+0.507	7	321.8	Hard / Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:39.605	+0.541	8	326.2	Medium / Soft
10	Tito Rabat	01:39.978	+0.914	7	325.5	Hard / Soft
11	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.053	+0.989	8	316.2	Hard / Soft
12	Andrea Iannone	01:40.118	+1.054	6	318.0	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 30.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:38.304	—	8	325.6	Hard / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:38.458	+0.154	7	319.2	Soft / Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.468	+0.164	7	325.8	Hard / Soft
4	Valentino Rossi	01:38.545	+0.241	7	321.3	Hard / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:38.548	+0.244	7	328.3	Soft / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.886	+0.582	7	317.9	Hard / Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.897	+0.593	8	321.9	Hard / Soft
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:38.955	+0.651	7	327.7	Hard / Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.038	+0.734	8	321.0	Hard / Soft
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.093	+0.789	6	327.3	Soft / missing
11	Pol Espargaro	01:39.489	+1.185	8	327.2	Soft / Medium
12	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.520	+1.216	7	325.0	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 31.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.096	—	12	330.5	— / —	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:39.222	+0.126	12	323.9	— / —	—			—
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.338	+0.242	12	327.7	Hard / Soft	1:40.230	+0.37%	8	Soft
4	Alex Rins	01:39.488	+0.392	12	324.6	Hard / Soft	1:39.860	—	9	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.616	+0.520	12	324.3	Hard / Medium	1:40.166	+0.31%	5	Medium
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.646	+0.550	12	330.3	— / —	—			—
7	Valentino Rossi	01:39.717	+0.621	12	320.7	— / —	—			—
8	Jack Miller	01:39.831	+0.735	12	332.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.856	+0.760	12	320.5	Hard / Soft	1:40.180	+0.32%	9	Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.872	+0.776	12	325.6	Hard / Medium	1:40.726	+0.87%	10	Medium
11	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.886	+0.790	11	329.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
12	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.896	+0.800	12	323.0	— / —	—			—
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.905	+0.809	11	329.3	— / —	—			—
14	Joan Mir	01:39.977	+0.881	11	322.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.003	+0.907	12	325.3	Hard / Soft	1:40.560	+0.70%	8	Soft
16	Pol Espargaro	01:40.069	+0.973	12	325.5	missing / missing	1:40.546	+0.69%	7	missing
17	Tito Rabat	01:40.121	+1.025	12	326.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.140	+1.044	12	325.4	— / —	—			—
19	Johann Zarco	01:40.247	+1.151	12	324.7	— / —	—			—
20	Andrea Iannone	01:40.460	+1.364	10	325.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:40.476	+1.380	12	320.0	Hard / Medium	1:41.084	+1.23%	9	Medium
22	Karel Abraham	01:40.648	+1.552	12	326.3	Hard / Soft	1:41.884	+2.03%	10	Soft

Race · 31.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:43.688	25	25	Hard / Soft	1:39.942	—	23	Soft
2	Valentino Rossi	+9.816	20	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.354	+0.41%	23	Medium
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+10.530	16	25	Hard / Soft	1:40.412	+0.47%	23	Soft
4	Jack Miller	+12.140	13	25	Medium / Soft	1:40.477	+0.54%	23	Soft
5	Alex Rins	+12.563	11	25	Hard / Soft	1:40.426	+0.48%	23	Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	+13.750	10	25	Hard / Soft	1:40.520	+0.58%	23	Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	+18.160	9	25	Hard / Soft	1:40.610	+0.67%	23	Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	+20.403	8	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.639	+0.70%	23	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	+25.292	7	25	Hard / Soft	1:40.762	+0.82%	23	Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	+25.679	6	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.834	+0.89%	23	Medium
11	Miguel Oliveira	+25.855	5	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.875	+0.93%	23	Medium
12	Jorge Lorenzo	+27.497	4	25	Hard / Soft	1:40.956	+1.02%	23	Soft
13	Cal Crutchlow	+31.398	3	25	Hard / Medium	1:40.181	+0.24%	21	Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	+32.893	2	25	Hard / Soft	1:41.093	+1.15%	23	Soft
15	Johann Zarco	+33.372	1	25	Hard / Medium	1:41.298	+1.36%	23	Medium
16	Hafizh Syahrin	+35.545	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:41.189	+1.25%	23	Medium
17	Andrea Iannone	+38.238	0	25	Hard / Soft	1:41.305	+1.36%	23	Soft
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	24	Hard / Medium	1:40.482	+0.54%	22	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	21	Hard / Soft	1:41.344	+1.40%	19	Soft
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	14	Hard / Soft	1:41.308	+1.37%	12	Soft
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	24	Soft / Soft	1:40.456	+0.51%	22	Soft
Retired	Tito Rabat		0	15	Hard / Soft	1:41.054	+1.11%	13	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:39.913	—	+0.105	Medium	8
Cal Crutchlow	1:40.371	+0.458	+0.729	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:40.502*	+0.589	+0.292	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.578	+0.665	+0.193	Medium	6
Alex Rins	1:40.582*	+0.669	+0.217	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.615	+0.702	+0.275	Medium	11
Valentino Rossi	1:40.663	+0.750	+0.508	Medium	5
Andrea Iannone	1:40.749	+0.836	+0.224	Medium	6
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.789*	+0.876	+0.221	Medium	3
Danilo Petrucci	1:40.919	+1.006	+0.574	Medium	6
Jorge Lorenzo	1:41.046*	+1.133	+1.158	Medium	4
Tito Rabat	1:41.101	+1.188	+0.229	Medium	5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Takaaki Nakagami	57%	1 ✓
2	Francesco Bagnaia	46%	7
3	Aleix Espargaro	34%	3
4	Pol Espargaro	18%	2 ✓
5	Alex Rins	17%	6
6	Miguel Oliveira	7%	4
7	Joan Mir	9%	9
8	Johann Zarco	4%	8
9	Andrea Iannone	3%	12
10	Tito Rabat	3%	10
11	Karel Abraham	2%	5
12	Hafizh Syahrin	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	37%	70%	92%	1
2	Jack Miller	24%	52%	84%	5
3	Cal Crutchlow	15%	46%	82%	8
4	Maverick Viñales	5%	35%	69%	2
5	Danilo Petrucci	4%	28%	57%	10
6	Franco Morbidelli	7%	22%	57%	6
7	Andrea Dovizioso	1%	10%	44%	3
8	Valentino Rossi	3%	14%	36%	4
9	Jorge Lorenzo	1%	7%	26%	12
10	Fabio Quartararo	3%	8%	22%	7
11	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	7%	19%	9
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	1%	12%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	30%	60%	74%	85%	14%	1
Maverick Viñales	2	22%	54%	72%	87%	10%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	3	14%	44%	64%	84%	13%	3
Valentino Rossi	4	12%	40%	63%	87%	8%	2
Jack Miller	5	6%	23%	41%	66%	28%	4
Franco Morbidelli	6	6%	24%	46%	82%	9%	—
Fabio Quartararo	7	4%	17%	37%	73%	16%	8
Cal Crutchlow	8	2%	11%	26%	61%	28%	13
Takaaki Nakagami	9	2%	9%	22%	68%	13%	7
Danilo Petrucci	10	1%	6%	15%	55%	22%	6
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	11%	49%	23%	10
Jorge Lorenzo	12	1%	4%	9%	51%	10%	12
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	2%	6%	35%	25%	9
Miguel Oliveira	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	16%	11
Karel Abraham	15	0%	1%	3%	21%	31%	—
Alex Rins	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	21%	5
Francesco Bagnaia	17	0%	0%	1%	13%	31%	14
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	10%	15
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	0%	8%	16%	—
Tito Rabat	20	0%	0%	1%	5%	15%	—
Hafizh Syahrin	21	0%	0%	1%	4%	17%	16
Andrea Iannone	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	27%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,820 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Pedro Acosta +0.38%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.37%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.02%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.42%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.79%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Maverick Viñales +0.05%	Jorge Martin +0.44%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.10%	Luca Marini +0.13%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.25%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Pol Espargaro +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Aleix Espargaro +0.00%	Alex Rins +0.32%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%
S4	Brad Binder	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Franco Morbidelli +0.27%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Cal Crutchlow +0.16%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Cal Crutchlow +0.22%	Valentino Rossi +0.58%
S2	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.39%	Cal Crutchlow +0.93%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

10/100

Position index

60%

Pole wins

60%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 20% of the time (between 4% and 62%; 5 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Andrea Dovizioso	25	—
2	Marc Marquez	20	−5
3	Cal Crutchlow	16	−9
4	Alex Rins	13	−12
5	Valentino Rossi	11	−14
6	Danilo Petrucci	10	−15

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

122

Overtakes

Lead changes

5 leaders

4/24

Laps led by the winner

Cal Crutchlow

0.251 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hafizh Syahrin, from P23 to P10.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Johann Zarco (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:40.482	—	+0.210	Medium	20
Cal Crutchlow	1:41.189	+0.707	+0.729	Medium	22
Alex Rins	1:41.212	+0.730	+0.217	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:41.264	+0.782	+0.344	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:41.280	+0.798	+0.105	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:41.407	+0.925	+0.292	Medium	22
Hafizh Syahrin	1:41.890	+1.408	+0.491	Medium	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:41.946	+1.464	+0.574	Medium	22
Valentino Rossi	1:41.957	+1.475	+0.508	Medium	21
Pol Espargaro	1:41.969	+1.487	+0.406	Medium	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Cal CrutchlowHonda
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2016Marc MarquezHonda
2015Valentino RossiYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	2/20	10%
2023	0/17	0%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/22	23%
2018	3/24	13%
2017	7/23	30%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+1.68%	−0.100	1	3	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.