Round 3 of 19 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2018

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013

20.04 – 22.04.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:52.002	25
2	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+3.560	20
3	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+6.704	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+9.587	13
5	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+13.570	11
6	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+14.231	10
7	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+18.201	9
8	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+28.537	8
9	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+28.671	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+28.875	6
11	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+31.355	5
12	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+34.993	4
13	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+37.264	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+39.335	2
15	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+40.887	1
16	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+48.475	0
17	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+49.995	0
18	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+51.115	0
19	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+59.055	0
20	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+59.747	0
21	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+60.513	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Maverick Viñales · 32%	Marc Marquez · 11% · from P4	0.74 / 0.74	3.2 / 3.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

3.560 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Aleix Espargaro, from P19 to P10.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Pol Espargaro (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:03		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:17:51	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:18:34	Hafizh Syahrin	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:18:42	Karel Abraham	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:23:35	Alex Rins	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for riders #44 & #93

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P4).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	18	14	+4
Hafizh Syahrin	16	12	+4
Scott Redding	22	18	+4
Danilo Petrucci	10	17	−7
Takaaki Nakagami	12	19	−7
Jorge Lorenzo	6	10	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Jack Miller	18→9	+4.8
Aleix Espargaro	19→10	+4.4
Marc Marquez	4→1	+3.8
Jorge Lorenzo	6→11	−5.0
Franco Morbidelli	17→21	−7.9
Cal Crutchlow	7→19	−12.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	46%	+1.20%	+0.031	1	2	10.5
Medium	46%	+1.34%	+0.046	0	1	11.1
Soft	8%	+3.71%	+0.175	0	0	15.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

21.2 °C

Air

max 22.5 °C

53%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

11 km/h

Wind

gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Aleix Espargaro	56%	9
2	Jack Miller	49%	8
3	Danilo Petrucci	37%	2 ✓
4	Tito Rabat	17%	4
5	Scott Redding	18%	12
6	Hafizh Syahrin	4%	6
7	Takaaki Nakagami	8%	3
8	Pol Espargaro	3%	1 ✓
9	Franco Morbidelli	3%	7
10	Bradley Smith	3%	5
11	Karel Abraham	2%	13
12	Thomas Luthi	0%	10
13	Alvaro Bautista	0%	11
14	Xavier Simeon	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Andrea Iannone	42%	73%	93%	3
2	Marc Marquez	21%	52%	84%	1
3	Maverick Viñales	17%	50%	86%	2
4	Valentino Rossi	3%	33%	67%	5
5	Johann Zarco	3%	29%	59%	4
6	Cal Crutchlow	6%	21%	59%	7
7	Alex Rins	1%	11%	44%	11
8	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	13%	34%	8
9	Jorge Lorenzo	1%	7%	27%	6
10	Daniel Pedrosa	2%	6%	18%	9
11	Danilo Petrucci	0%	3%	18%	10
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	1%	12%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Marc Marquez	1	4	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for riders #44 & #93
Race	Pol Espargaro	12	15	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for riders #44 & #93

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Maverick Viñales	1	32%	62%	77%	88%	10%	2
Andrea Iannone	2	17%	43%	58%	71%	28%	3
Johann Zarco	3	16%	49%	70%	88%	8%	6
Marc Marquez	4	11%	36%	58%	81%	14%	1
Valentino Rossi	5	8%	31%	54%	84%	9%	4
Jorge Lorenzo	6	5%	24%	46%	82%	10%	11
Cal Crutchlow	7	3%	15%	30%	62%	28%	19
Andrea Dovizioso	8	3%	14%	30%	71%	12%	5
Daniel Pedrosa	9	2%	9%	23%	68%	11%	7
Danilo Petrucci	10	1%	5%	14%	53%	23%	12
Alex Rins	11	1%	4%	12%	49%	20%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	12	0%	3%	8%	45%	14%	14
Tito Rabat	13	1%	3%	7%	40%	12%	8
Bradley Smith	14	0%	1%	5%	32%	13%	16
Pol Espargaro	15	0%	1%	3%	25%	22%	13
Hafizh Syahrin	16	0%	1%	3%	20%	14%	—
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	0%	1%	14%	14%	21
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	27%	9
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	1%	6%	24%	10
Thomas Luthi	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	14%	18
Alvaro Bautista	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	21%	15
Scott Redding	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	17
Karel Abraham	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	31%	—
Xavier Simeon	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	20

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.55%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%	Fabio Quartararo +0.67%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Luca Marini +0.71%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.66%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.19%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Luca Marini +0.18%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Enea Bastianini +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.37%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.43%
S4	Alex Rins +0.20%	Joan Mir +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jack Miller +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.64%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.59%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.14%	Cal Crutchlow +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.59%	Maverick Viñales +0.79%
S3	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.74%	Maverick Viñales +0.80%
S4	Andrea Iannone	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

62%

Front row on the podium

0.79

Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Cal Crutchlow	38	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	35	−3
3	Johann Zarco	28	−10
4	Maverick Viñales	21	−17
5	Marc Marquez	20	−18
6	Jack Miller	19	−19

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/21

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.769 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Cal Crutchlow, from P9 to P4.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Marc Marquez (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
2023Alex RinsHonda
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/22	23%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	9/22	41%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%
2019	4/22	18%