Round 9 of 18 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2017

3.671 m · 30 laps · since 1998

30.06 – 02.07.2017

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	40:59.525	25
2	Jonas Folger	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+3.310	20
3	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.546	16
4	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+14.253	13
5	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+14.980	11
6	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Pull&Bear Aspar Team	+16.534	10
7	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+19.736	9
8	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+20.188	8
9	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+21.138	7
10	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	+24.210	6
11	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+25.659	5
12	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Racing	+31.540	4
13	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+32.179	3
14	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+36.453	2
15	Jack Miller	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+37.771	1
16	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+37.852	0
17	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Pull&Bear Aspar Team	+39.323	0
18	Tito Rabat	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+41.190	0
19	Loris Baz	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+59.850	0
20	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Racing	+61.664	0
21	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+61.695	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Disqualified	0
DNF	Sam Lowes	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 30% ✓	Marc Marquez · 30% · from P1	0.73 / 0.73	3.6 / 3.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

25/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

3.310 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P19 to P9.

Longest battle: Jonas Folger vs Marc Marquez (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:50	Hector Barbera	Jump start	jump start
Race	14:02:58	Hector Barbera	Ride through	ride through penalty
Race	14:12:02		Red flag	Hector BARBERA black flag
Race	14:18:07	Sam Lowes	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:34:47	Andrea Iannone	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Scott Redding	23	17	+6
Andrea Iannone	16	12	+4
Jorge Lorenzo	6	3	+3
Cal Crutchlow	4	8	−4
Pol Espargaro	7	11	−4
Danilo Petrucci	2	5	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Johann Zarco	19→9	+5.4
Maverick Viñales	11→4	+5.3
Alvaro Bautista	12→6	+3.9
Pol Espargaro	7→13	−6.3
Loris Baz	14→19	−7.8
Danilo Petrucci	2→12	−8.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

Race weather

C25

18.6 °C

Air

max 19.3 °C

58%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

17 km/h

Wind

gusts 43 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Tito Rabat	62%	14
2	Danilo Petrucci	47%	1 ✓
3	Hector Barbera	40%	8
4	Jack Miller	15%	3
5	Scott Redding	17%	13
6	Alex Rins	4%	12
7	Johann Zarco	9%	9
8	Pol Espargaro	3%	2 ✓
9	Andrea Iannone	0%	6
10	Loris Baz	3%	4
11	Bradley Smith	1%	5
12	Mika Kallio	0%	7
13	Sam Lowes	0%	11
14	Karel Abraham	0%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	44%	76%	94%	1
2	Maverick Viñales	22%	53%	87%	11
3	Jonas Folger	17%	50%	86%	5
4	Aleix Espargaro	4%	36%	68%	8
5	Cal Crutchlow	4%	31%	60%	4
6	Valentino Rossi	4%	19%	60%	9
7	Jorge Lorenzo	1%	13%	44%	6
8	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	13%	32%	10
9	Daniel Pedrosa	1%	5%	26%	3
10	Alvaro Bautista	0%	3%	14%	12
11	Danilo Petrucci	0%	1%	17%	2
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	1%	15%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	30%	60%	73%	82%	15%	1
Danilo Petrucci	2	20%	48%	63%	74%	24%	12
Daniel Pedrosa	3	16%	49%	69%	87%	11%	3
Cal Crutchlow	4	9%	31%	50%	68%	30%	10
Jonas Folger	5	8%	30%	53%	80%	15%	2
Jorge Lorenzo	6	6%	26%	50%	84%	8%	11
Pol Espargaro	7	4%	15%	34%	70%	21%	13
Aleix Espargaro	8	3%	13%	30%	67%	22%	7
Valentino Rossi	9	2%	9%	23%	70%	9%	5
Andrea Dovizioso	10	1%	6%	17%	63%	12%	8
Maverick Viñales	11	1%	5%	13%	58%	12%	4
Alvaro Bautista	12	1%	3%	9%	44%	20%	6
Jack Miller	13	0%	2%	5%	32%	31%	15
Loris Baz	14	0%	1%	4%	31%	20%	19
Bradley Smith	15	0%	1%	4%	29%	12%	14
Andrea Iannone	16	0%	0%	2%	18%	28%	—
Mika Kallio	17	0%	0%	1%	11%	35%	16
Hector Barbera	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	14%	—
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	15%	9
Karel Abraham	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	32%	17
Sam Lowes	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	30%	—
Alex Rins	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	24%	21
Scott Redding	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	20
Tito Rabat	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	18

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 3,649 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jack Miller +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.50%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.51%	Aleix Espargaro +0.52%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Aleix Espargaro +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.09%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.21%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.07%	Raul Fernandez +0.14%	Alex Marquez +0.17%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.42%	Raul Fernandez +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Jack Miller +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.59%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%	Alex Marquez +0.56%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%	Brad Binder +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.37%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.32%	Luca Marini +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.70%
S2	Johann Zarco	Jack Miller +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Jorge Martin +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Miguel Oliveira +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.88%
S2	Jack Miller +0.27%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Takaaki Nakagami +0.11%	Miguel Oliveira +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Alex Rins +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Alex Rins +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.49%	Alex Rins +0.53%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.26%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Cal Crutchlow +0.24%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.39%	Danilo Petrucci +0.51%
S4	Alex Rins +0.12%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.13%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

95/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.82

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Andrea Dovizioso	115	—
2	Maverick Viñales	111	−4
3	Valentino Rossi	108	−7
4	Marc Marquez	104	−11
5	Daniel Pedrosa	87	−28
6	Johann Zarco	77	−38

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2016 edition

137

Overtakes

Lead changes

5 leaders

6/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

9.857 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Cal Crutchlow, from P13 to P2.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Valentino Rossi (9 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/20	25%
2025	8/18	44%
2024	2/22	9%
2023	2/19	11%
2022	7/23	30%
2021	3/22	14%