MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 10 of 18 Aftermath

Czech Grand Prix 2017

CREDITAS Autodrom Brno Czechia

5.403 m · since 1930
04.08 – 06.08.2017
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team44:15.97425
2Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+12.43820
3Maverick ViñalesYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+18.13516
4Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+20.46613
5Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+20.89211
6Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+23.25910
7Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Racing+24.0799
8Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+30.5598
9Pol EspargaroKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+30.7547
10Jonas FolgerYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+33.2366
11Alex RinsSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+33.2905
12Johann ZarcoYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+34.5954
13Karel AbrahamDucatiPull&Bear Aspar Team+34.6973
14Jack MillerHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+38.0622
15Jorge LorenzoDucatiDucati Team+40.1001
16Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Racing+44.3760
17Tito RabatHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+45.4540
18Sam LowesApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+53.9760
19Andrea IannoneSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+83.3460
20Hector BarberaDucatiReale Avintia Racing+0.0000
DNFAlvaro BautistaDucatiPull&Bear Aspar TeamRetired0
DNFBradley SmithKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFLoris BazDucatiReale Avintia RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 27% ✓Marc Marquez · 27% · from P10.82 / 0.822.4 / 2.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

226
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
4 leaders
17/22
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
12.438 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Pol Espargaro, from P18 to P9.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Scott Redding (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:02:45Jump startjump start
Race14:08:10Andrea IannoneCrashcrashed out in pit lane
Race14:28:00Alvaro BautistaCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:29:21Aleix EspargaroPosition penaltyto drop 3 position due to unsafe releas
Race14:33:32Loris BazCrashcrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:43:39Bradley SmithRetiredretired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
19.4 °C
Air
max 20.0 °C
70%
Humidity
0.7 mm
Rain
12 km/h
Wind
gusts 35 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Johann Zarco02:05.201—20296.4
2Marc Marquez02:05.240+0.03915293.4
3Jorge Lorenzo02:05.321+0.12015296.4
4Daniel Pedrosa02:05.446+0.24516287.2
5Valentino Rossi02:05.712+0.51118292.6
6Maverick Viñales02:05.845+0.64418295.8
7Danilo Petrucci02:05.886+0.68516295.1
8Hector Barbera02:05.896+0.69517298.0
9Aleix Espargaro02:05.922+0.72111292.4
10Jonas Folger02:05.984+0.78315293.4
11Loris Baz02:06.126+0.92520287.7
12Cal Crutchlow02:06.147+0.94617291.8
13Andrea Dovizioso02:06.261+1.06014299.4
14Scott Redding02:06.429+1.22814295.0
15Alvaro Bautista02:06.461+1.26016294.4
16Andrea Iannone02:06.507+1.30616295.8
17Sam Lowes02:06.622+1.42115291.8
18Pol Espargaro02:06.691+1.49017296.9
19Tito Rabat02:07.013+1.81221293.0
20Karel Abraham02:07.078+1.87715289.9
21Jack Miller02:07.157+1.95615291.6
22Bradley Smith02:07.613+2.41217282.5
23Alex Rins02:07.801+2.60017294.5
FP2 · 04.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Dovizioso01:56.332—15310.4
2Jonas Folger01:56.730+0.39812306.1
3Danilo Petrucci01:56.751+0.41915305.6
4Johann Zarco01:56.862+0.53015307.0
5Hector Barbera01:56.864+0.53216309.2
6Scott Redding01:56.905+0.57314304.4
7Daniel Pedrosa01:56.933+0.60113306.9
8Cal Crutchlow01:56.961+0.62911302.1
9Aleix Espargaro01:57.019+0.68714304.5
10Marc Marquez01:57.209+0.87713303.5
11Maverick Viñales01:57.289+0.95712302.2
12Alvaro Bautista01:57.314+0.98214308.5
13Pol Espargaro01:57.378+1.04614306.2
14Valentino Rossi01:57.396+1.06414303.2
15Jorge Lorenzo01:57.637+1.30515307.5
16Karel Abraham01:57.869+1.53716306.9
17Loris Baz01:57.992+1.66017296.9
18Alex Rins01:58.042+1.71017303.6
19Jack Miller01:58.179+1.84716301.3
20Andrea Iannone01:58.194+1.86215302.2
21Tito Rabat01:58.437+2.10518302.4
22Sam Lowes01:58.638+2.30613302.1
23Bradley Smith01:59.382+3.05013301.1
FP3 · 05.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:55.370—18306.2
2Daniel Pedrosa01:55.541+0.17117308.8
3Valentino Rossi01:55.758+0.38819309.7
4Maverick Viñales01:55.773+0.40318309.3
5Andrea Dovizioso01:55.777+0.40716311.4
6Cal Crutchlow01:55.819+0.44915304.9
7Aleix Espargaro01:55.871+0.50117308.0
8Johann Zarco01:55.895+0.52518306.2
9Jorge Lorenzo01:55.969+0.59918305.7
10Loris Baz01:56.177+0.80716302.0
11Jonas Folger01:56.268+0.89816308.3
12Andrea Iannone01:56.280+0.91018304.9
13Hector Barbera01:56.320+0.95017309.8
14Pol Espargaro01:56.350+0.98018306.8
15Alvaro Bautista01:56.667+1.29716309.4
16Danilo Petrucci01:56.686+1.31617307.7
17Alex Rins01:56.766+1.39620304.3
18Jack Miller01:56.835+1.46520306.2
19Scott Redding01:57.001+1.63113306.0
20Karel Abraham01:57.156+1.78618307.5
21Tito Rabat01:57.307+1.93717306.1
22Bradley Smith01:57.398+2.02820303.8
23Sam Lowes01:57.406+2.03618304.4
FP4 · 05.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:56.429—13302.6
2Jonas Folger01:56.438+0.00910305.7
3Valentino Rossi01:56.447+0.01813305.6
4Jorge Lorenzo01:56.615+0.18613305.7
5Daniel Pedrosa01:56.723+0.29413307.3
6Cal Crutchlow01:56.764+0.33511301.5
7Maverick Viñales01:56.788+0.35912306.6
8Andrea Dovizioso01:56.945+0.51612312.2
9Pol Espargaro01:57.224+0.79512307.3
10Alex Rins01:57.257+0.82814303.6
11Scott Redding01:57.272+0.84312305.6
12Danilo Petrucci01:57.301+0.87211308.3
13Johann Zarco01:57.360+0.93115306.4
14Alvaro Bautista01:57.391+0.96212307.7
15Hector Barbera01:57.404+0.97513310.0
16Karel Abraham01:57.413+0.9849306.9
17Loris Baz01:57.478+1.04911302.7
18Aleix Espargaro01:57.612+1.1839301.9
19Andrea Iannone01:57.630+1.2017304.7
20Jack Miller01:57.695+1.26612306.0
21Tito Rabat01:57.835+1.40612304.9
22Bradley Smith01:58.163+1.73413301.0
23Sam Lowes01:58.231+1.80213303.2
Q1 · 05.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Danilo Petrucci01:56.220—5309.9
2Alvaro Bautista01:56.454+0.2346308.3
3Alex Rins01:56.460+0.2407305.4
4Jonas Folger01:56.540+0.3206305.0
5Jack Miller01:56.543+0.3237304.9
6Hector Barbera01:56.685+0.4653311.4
7Karel Abraham01:56.786+0.5666306.7
8Pol Espargaro01:57.034+0.8145307.1
9Bradley Smith01:57.042+0.8226303.7
10Andrea Iannone01:57.245+1.0254304.9
11Tito Rabat01:57.288+1.0686306.8
12Sam Lowes01:57.465+1.2454302.6
13Scott Redding01:57.517+1.2976306.9
Q2 · 05.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:54.981—7305.5
2Valentino Rossi01:55.073+0.0927307.6
3Daniel Pedrosa01:55.119+0.1387309.5
4Andrea Dovizioso01:55.441+0.4607312.3
5Cal Crutchlow01:55.489+0.5087303.2
6Jorge Lorenzo01:55.552+0.5716305.2
7Maverick Viñales01:55.663+0.6827308.2
8Danilo Petrucci01:55.738+0.7576312.1
9Alvaro Bautista01:56.027+1.0467308.4
10Johann Zarco01:56.075+1.0947308.7
11Aleix Espargaro01:56.355+1.3745305.0
12Loris Baz01:56.624+1.6437303.0
Warm Up · 06.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez02:07.120—9295.1
2Scott Redding02:08.160+1.0409294.3
3Andrea Dovizioso02:08.448+1.3289295.4
4Sam Lowes02:08.470+1.3505286.1
5Jorge Lorenzo02:08.489+1.3699290.8
6Daniel Pedrosa02:08.561+1.4418287.0
7Jonas Folger02:08.591+1.4717291.3
8Cal Crutchlow02:08.618+1.4988290.6
9Valentino Rossi02:08.772+1.6529290.4
10Aleix Espargaro02:08.776+1.6567293.6
11Pol Espargaro02:08.846+1.7266284.5
12Danilo Petrucci02:08.940+1.8208296.7
13Maverick Viñales02:09.398+2.2787287.9
14Bradley Smith02:09.499+2.3797273.0
15Johann Zarco02:09.879+2.7599288.4
16Hector Barbera02:10.408+3.2888286.6
17Andrea Iannone02:10.496+3.3767295.9
18Loris Baz02:10.579+3.4598278.1
19Alex Rins02:10.750+3.6309285.1
20Alvaro Bautista02:11.018+3.8989289.5
21Karel Abraham02:11.639+4.5196278.8
22Jack Miller02:11.829+4.7098283.6
23Tito Rabat02:12.057+4.9379282.4
Race · 06.08
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Marc Marquez44:15.9742522
2Daniel Pedrosa+12.4382022
3Maverick Viñales+18.1351622
4Valentino Rossi+20.4661322
5Cal Crutchlow+20.8921122
6Andrea Dovizioso+23.2591022
7Danilo Petrucci+24.079922
8Aleix Espargaro+30.559822
9Pol Espargaro+30.754722
10Jonas Folger+33.236622
11Alex Rins+33.290522
12Johann Zarco+34.595422
13Karel Abraham+34.697322
14Jack Miller+38.062222
15Jorge Lorenzo+40.100122
16Scott Redding+44.376022
17Tito Rabat+45.454022
18Sam Lowes+53.976022
19Andrea Iannone+83.346022
20Hector Barbera+0.000021
RetiredAlvaro Bautista012
RetiredBradley Smith020
RetiredLoris Baz015

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez127%59%73%84%15%1
Valentino Rossi224%56%74%88%9%4
Daniel Pedrosa315%47%67%86%10%2
Andrea Dovizioso411%36%59%83%12%6
Cal Crutchlow56%22%40%66%29%5
Jorge Lorenzo66%24%48%83%8%15
Maverick Viñales74%17%37%78%12%3
Danilo Petrucci83%11%26%63%24%7
Alvaro Bautista92%8%20%62%20%—
Johann Zarco101%6%16%60%14%12
Aleix Espargaro111%4%12%51%22%8
Loris Baz121%3%8%44%20%—
Alex Rins130%2%6%36%22%11
Jonas Folger140%2%5%34%14%10
Jack Miller150%1%3%21%31%14
Hector Barbera160%1%2%20%15%20
Karel Abraham170%0%1%12%32%13
Pol Espargaro180%0%1%9%21%9
Bradley Smith190%0%1%8%12%—
Andrea Iannone200%0%0%5%29%19
Tito Rabat210%0%0%4%13%17
Sam Lowes220%0%0%2%34%18
Scott Redding230%0%0%2%15%16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · OguraS2 · M. MarquezS3 · M. MarquezS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,401 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

81/100
Position index
40%
Pole wins
60%
Front row on the podium
0.78
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 44% and 100%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2016 edition

113
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
4 leaders
7/22
Laps led by the winner
Cal Crutchlow
7.298 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Loris Baz, from P17 to P4.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Maverick Viñales (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2020Brad BinderKTM
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
  • 2017Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2016Cal CrutchlowHonda
  • 2015Jorge LorenzoYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2015%
20253/2114%
20203/2114%
20193/2313%
20185/2520%
20173/2313%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet