MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 14 of 18 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2017

MotorLand Aragón Spain

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010
22.09 – 24.09.2017
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team42:06.81625
2Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+0.87920
3Jorge LorenzoDucatiDucati Team+2.02816
4Maverick ViñalesYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+5.25613
5Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+5.88211
6Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+6.96210
7Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+7.4559
8Alvaro BautistaDucatiPull&Bear Aspar Team+7.9108
9Johann ZarcoYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+13.0027
10Pol EspargaroKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+14.0756
11Mika KallioKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+17.1925
12Andrea IannoneSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+20.6324
13Jack MillerHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+23.8863
14Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Racing+25.5232
15Tito RabatHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+26.0821
16Jonas FolgerYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+30.3020
17Alex RinsSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+31.8740
18Hector BarberaDucatiReale Avintia Racing+31.9480
19Bradley SmithKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+36.2960
20Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Racing+37.8420
21Loris BazDucatiReale Avintia Racing+47.5990
22Sam LowesApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+47.6470
DNFCal CrutchlowHondaLCR HondaRetired0
DNFKarel AbrahamDucatiPull&Bear Aspar TeamRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Maverick Viñales · 31%Marc Marquez · 7% · from P50.90 / 0.902.3 / 2.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

54
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
8/23
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
0.879 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Scott Redding, from P22 to P14.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Alvaro Bautista (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:03:04Jump startJump start
Race14:11:15Karel AbrahamCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:20:17Karel AbrahamRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:31:56Cal CrutchlowCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

RiderGrid→Pos.Beats the grid
Marc Marquez5→1+4.4
Daniel Pedrosa6→2+4.0
Scott Redding22→14+2.3
Sam Lowes24→22−4.4
Danilo Petrucci16→20−7.5
Loris Baz17→21−7.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
27.6 °C
Air
max 29.1 °C
32%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
7 km/h
Wind
gusts 22 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 22.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez02:01.243—10323.5
2Daniel Pedrosa02:01.741+0.49811325.7
3Johann Zarco02:02.028+0.78517324.3
4Jack Miller02:02.099+0.85611323.4
5Mika Kallio02:02.294+1.05111325.5
6Jorge Lorenzo02:02.386+1.14310324.3
7Cal Crutchlow02:02.718+1.47510321.2
8Danilo Petrucci02:02.917+1.67410327.4
9Andrea Iannone02:02.957+1.71410323.1
10Andrea Dovizioso02:03.093+1.8509323.2
11Scott Redding02:03.320+2.07712324.1
12Sam Lowes02:03.344+2.1019319.1
13Jonas Folger02:03.494+2.25112323.3
14Karel Abraham02:03.545+2.30213317.9
15Aleix Espargaro02:03.613+2.3707319.8
16Tito Rabat02:03.673+2.43015325.4
17Pol Espargaro02:03.694+2.45112324.2
18Valentino Rossi02:04.066+2.8238319.0
19Alvaro Bautista02:04.094+2.85110326.0
20Maverick Viñales02:04.098+2.85510322.3
21Loris Baz02:04.525+3.2826315.5
22Hector Barbera02:04.609+3.36612325.3
23Alex Rins02:04.625+3.38213322.4
RetiredBradley Smith—00.0
FP2 · 22.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:59.858—10324.4
2Jorge Lorenzo02:00.072+0.21412324.7
3Johann Zarco02:00.320+0.46216323.0
4Marc Marquez02:00.459+0.6019326.2
5Karel Abraham02:00.471+0.61315325.7
6Cal Crutchlow02:00.482+0.62413327.6
7Sam Lowes02:00.585+0.72711319.2
8Andrea Dovizioso02:00.962+1.1046324.0
9Aleix Espargaro02:01.015+1.1577321.5
10Pol Espargaro02:01.042+1.18410327.0
11Alvaro Bautista02:01.103+1.24516328.4
12Jack Miller02:01.149+1.2917321.8
13Bradley Smith02:01.350+1.49214321.6
14Andrea Iannone02:01.471+1.61311321.5
15Mika Kallio02:01.492+1.63412325.9
16Scott Redding02:01.516+1.65811324.6
17Maverick Viñales02:01.632+1.77412323.5
18Jonas Folger02:01.745+1.88714325.3
19Danilo Petrucci02:01.810+1.95214327.9
20Valentino Rossi02:01.917+2.05913321.3
21Alex Rins02:02.077+2.21916322.5
22Tito Rabat02:02.392+2.53418325.5
23Loris Baz02:02.677+2.81912317.5
24Hector Barbera02:02.935+3.07716325.7
FP3 · 23.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:48.252—20335.0
2Maverick Viñales01:48.562+0.31020328.8
3Daniel Pedrosa01:48.683+0.43119336.3
4Alvaro Bautista01:48.783+0.53120339.5
5Mika Kallio01:48.811+0.55918332.7
6Andrea Dovizioso01:48.881+0.62919337.2
7Aleix Espargaro01:48.920+0.66817328.6
8Cal Crutchlow01:49.021+0.76918330.8
9Andrea Iannone01:49.139+0.88715331.3
10Valentino Rossi01:49.223+0.97119329.6
11Jorge Lorenzo01:49.286+1.03416331.3
12Pol Espargaro01:49.300+1.04818335.7
13Danilo Petrucci01:49.389+1.13718334.3
14Tito Rabat01:49.473+1.22119332.0
15Jack Miller01:49.523+1.27117329.0
16Scott Redding01:49.553+1.30118332.4
17Hector Barbera01:49.613+1.36118338.1
18Loris Baz01:49.748+1.49617332.9
19Johann Zarco01:49.872+1.62015326.9
20Karel Abraham01:50.133+1.88118334.6
21Alex Rins01:50.136+1.88418331.4
22Bradley Smith01:50.753+2.50116332.1
23Jonas Folger01:50.919+2.66711323.6
24Sam Lowes01:51.076+2.8249327.4
FP4 · 23.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:48.709—13333.7
2Daniel Pedrosa01:48.805+0.09614334.8
3Marc Marquez01:48.839+0.13011332.3
4Pol Espargaro01:49.287+0.57814333.1
5Jonas Folger01:49.383+0.67413328.0
6Jorge Lorenzo01:49.415+0.70613332.1
7Aleix Espargaro01:49.422+0.71312333.4
8Karel Abraham01:49.455+0.74611336.6
9Andrea Dovizioso01:49.555+0.84613334.4
10Cal Crutchlow01:49.586+0.87713333.8
11Johann Zarco01:49.690+0.98113328.8
12Jack Miller01:49.715+1.00613330.9
13Andrea Iannone01:49.752+1.04314329.7
14Alvaro Bautista01:49.760+1.05113336.4
15Mika Kallio01:49.847+1.13814336.5
16Valentino Rossi01:49.888+1.17913329.3
17Scott Redding01:50.097+1.38814332.2
18Bradley Smith01:50.234+1.52512335.9
19Hector Barbera01:50.237+1.52814338.0
20Danilo Petrucci01:50.267+1.55813336.9
21Alex Rins01:50.425+1.71615327.7
22Loris Baz01:50.478+1.76914329.7
23Tito Rabat01:50.698+1.98915331.2
24Sam Lowes01:51.397+2.6889325.3
Q1 · 23.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:48.179—7333.3
2Johann Zarco01:48.298+0.1197330.6
3Jack Miller01:48.307+0.1288332.9
4Pol Espargaro01:48.387+0.2087333.3
5Karel Abraham01:48.467+0.2887336.0
6Danilo Petrucci01:48.908+0.7297331.8
7Loris Baz01:48.911+0.7328329.5
8Jonas Folger01:49.034+0.8557326.6
9Hector Barbera01:49.052+0.8737338.4
10Alex Rins01:49.233+1.0547333.4
11Tito Rabat01:49.258+1.0797331.2
12Scott Redding01:49.288+1.1096333.9
13Bradley Smith01:49.578+1.3997333.4
14Sam Lowes01:50.769+2.5907326.1
Q2 · 23.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:47.635—7332.7
2Jorge Lorenzo01:47.735+0.1007332.7
3Valentino Rossi01:47.815+0.1807332.5
4Cal Crutchlow01:47.830+0.1957330.9
5Marc Marquez01:47.963+0.3286329.2
6Daniel Pedrosa01:48.107+0.4728334.8
7Andrea Dovizioso01:48.137+0.5027336.2
8Aleix Espargaro01:48.159+0.5248327.6
9Alvaro Bautista01:48.187+0.5527340.6
10Andrea Iannone01:48.289+0.6547332.1
11Johann Zarco01:48.402+0.7676328.7
12Mika Kallio01:48.471+0.8365332.9
Warm Up · 24.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:48.832—9332.5
2Aleix Espargaro01:49.206+0.3748331.7
3Jack Miller01:49.490+0.6588332.4
4Maverick Viñales01:49.533+0.7018334.8
5Cal Crutchlow01:49.602+0.7708327.4
6Pol Espargaro01:49.604+0.7728336.3
7Hector Barbera01:49.608+0.7768338.6
8Johann Zarco01:49.620+0.7888332.9
9Valentino Rossi01:49.667+0.8358332.8
10Scott Redding01:49.678+0.8469334.7
11Andrea Iannone01:49.681+0.8499328.4
12Bradley Smith01:49.774+0.9428333.4
13Mika Kallio01:49.821+0.9899332.1
14Andrea Dovizioso01:49.874+1.0428333.9
15Alex Rins01:49.883+1.0518327.7
16Jorge Lorenzo01:49.982+1.1507329.8
17Danilo Petrucci01:50.054+1.2229329.5
18Daniel Pedrosa01:50.137+1.3057334.6
19Jonas Folger01:50.153+1.3218327.6
20Alvaro Bautista01:50.343+1.5117338.9
21Tito Rabat01:50.365+1.5337328.3
22Loris Baz01:50.536+1.7048329.6
23Sam Lowes01:51.058+2.2267329.2
24Karel Abraham01:51.078+2.2468337.6
Race · 24.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Marc Marquez42:06.8162523
2Daniel Pedrosa+0.8792023
3Jorge Lorenzo+2.0281623
4Maverick Viñales+5.2561323
5Valentino Rossi+5.8821123
6Aleix Espargaro+6.9621023
7Andrea Dovizioso+7.455923
8Alvaro Bautista+7.910823
9Johann Zarco+13.002723
10Pol Espargaro+14.075623
11Mika Kallio+17.192523
12Andrea Iannone+20.632423
13Jack Miller+23.886323
14Scott Redding+25.523223
15Tito Rabat+26.082123
16Jonas Folger+30.302023
17Alex Rins+31.874023
18Hector Barbera+31.948023
19Bradley Smith+36.296023
20Danilo Petrucci+37.842023
21Loris Baz+47.599023
22Sam Lowes+47.647023
RetiredCal Crutchlow016
RetiredKarel Abraham010

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Maverick Viñales131%61%77%87%11%4
Jorge Lorenzo222%56%74%89%9%3
Valentino Rossi316%48%68%88%9%5
Cal Crutchlow49%30%48%68%28%—
Marc Marquez57%28%51%79%16%1
Daniel Pedrosa66%24%46%82%10%2
Andrea Dovizioso74%17%39%78%12%7
Aleix Espargaro82%11%26%66%23%6
Alvaro Bautista91%7%19%64%20%8
Andrea Iannone101%5%14%49%30%12
Johann Zarco111%5%13%58%11%9
Mika Kallio120%2%7%38%33%11
Jack Miller130%2%5%32%30%13
Pol Espargaro140%1%4%31%21%10
Karel Abraham150%1%3%23%30%—
Danilo Petrucci160%1%2%19%25%20
Loris Baz170%0%1%14%20%21
Jonas Folger180%0%1%11%18%16
Hector Barbera190%0%1%9%15%18
Alex Rins200%0%0%6%15%17
Tito Rabat210%0%0%4%14%15
Scott Redding220%0%0%3%14%14
Bradley Smith230%0%0%3%13%19
Sam Lowes240%0%0%1%38%22

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · M. MarquezS3 · M. MarquezS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
50%
Front row on the podium
0.78
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2016 edition

57
Overtakes
4
Lead changes
3 leaders
13/23
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
2.740 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Michele Pirro, from P17 to P12.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Daniel Pedrosa (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2020Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20264/2218%
20253/2114%
20245/2223%
20223/2313%
20212/229%
20201/215%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet