Round 15 of 18 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2017

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

13.10 – 15.10.2017

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	47:14.236	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.249	20
3	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Racing	+10.557	16
4	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+18.845	13
5	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+22.982	11
6	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+24.464	10
7	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+28.010	9
8	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+29.475	8
9	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+36.575	7
10	Loris Baz	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+48.506	6
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+56.357	5
12	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	Yamaha	Yamalube Yamaha Factory Racing	+60.181	4
13	Sam Lowes	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+60.980	3
14	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+63.118	2
15	Tito Rabat	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+63.514	1
16	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Racing	+64.162	0
17	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+66.271	0
18	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+73.250	0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Pull&Bear Aspar Team	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	Retired	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Pull&Bear Aspar Team	Retired	0
DNF	Kohta Nozane	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Johann Zarco · 33%	Andrea Dovizioso · 2% · from P9	0.64 / 0.64	3.0 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

4/24

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

0.249 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P9 to P1.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Johann Zarco (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:03:14		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:09:33	Kohta Nozane	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:57	Kohta Nozane	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:10:40	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:35	Karel Abraham	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:29	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:32:25	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:43:32	Daniel Pedrosa	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:44:01	Karel Abraham	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:45:43	Alvaro Bautista	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Andrea Iannone	11	6	+5
Kohta Nozane	24	19	+5
Jorge Lorenzo	5	1	+4
Alvaro Bautista	16	23	−7
Sam Lowes	18	24	−6
Aleix Espargaro	4	7	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Andrea Dovizioso	9→1	+7.0
Andrea Iannone	11→4	+5.3
Katsuyuki Nakasuga	23→12	+5.0
Pol Espargaro	8→11	−3.7
Johann Zarco	1→8	−5.2
Bradley Smith	7→17	−10.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

13.8 °C

Air

max 14.2 °C

86%

Humidity

0.4 mm

Rain

5 km/h

Wind

gusts 17 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 13.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:55.418	—	19	293.6
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.293	+0.875	16	287.4
3	Scott Redding	01:56.517	+1.099	15	289.3
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.653	+1.235	12	288.6
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.664	+1.246	16	290.2
6	Johann Zarco	01:56.865	+1.447	13	290.7
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.875	+1.457	13	288.6
8	Alex Rins	01:56.906	+1.488	17	295.1
9	Maverick Viñales	01:56.917	+1.499	18	289.9
10	Bradley Smith	01:57.305	+1.887	17	287.6
11	Pol Espargaro	01:57.548	+2.130	17	286.3
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.633	+2.215	14	295.7
13	Andrea Iannone	01:57.746	+2.328	15	284.9
14	Hector Barbera	01:57.748	+2.330	17	287.2
15	Kohta Nozane	01:57.849	+2.431	17	288.8
16	Loris Baz	01:58.280	+2.862	16	289.3
17	Alvaro Bautista	01:58.373	+2.955	20	286.5
18	Sam Lowes	01:58.504	+3.086	13	289.2
19	Valentino Rossi	01:58.618	+3.200	15	288.3
20	Daniel Pedrosa	01:58.706	+3.288	14	284.8
21	Tito Rabat	01:58.921	+3.503	17	293.7
22	Karel Abraham	01:59.098	+3.680	16	286.7
23	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:59.188	+3.770	16	289.2
24	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:59.205	+3.787	16	290.5

FP2 · 13.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:54.877	—	17	296.4
2	Marc Marquez	01:54.920	+0.043	16	296.3
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.061	+0.184	16	297.3
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.234	+0.357	18	293.7
5	Johann Zarco	01:55.468	+0.591	18	296.6
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:55.541	+0.664	19	299.0
7	Andrea Iannone	01:55.614	+0.737	20	297.4
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.773	+0.896	20	282.5
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.149	+1.272	19	294.7
10	Alex Rins	01:56.229	+1.352	18	294.9
11	Maverick Viñales	01:56.376	+1.499	18	294.9
12	Valentino Rossi	01:56.435	+1.558	18	293.1
13	Kohta Nozane	01:56.453	+1.576	18	290.6
14	Scott Redding	01:56.680	+1.803	13	294.7
15	Karel Abraham	01:56.776	+1.899	16	291.2
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.827	+1.950	21	292.6
17	Bradley Smith	01:56.853	+1.976	15	286.6
18	Pol Espargaro	01:56.872	+1.995	15	296.4
19	Sam Lowes	01:57.250	+2.373	17	290.2
20	Loris Baz	01:57.259	+2.382	17	288.3
21	Hector Barbera	01:57.540	+2.663	20	298.1
22	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:57.548	+2.671	18	296.7
23	Tito Rabat	01:57.645	+2.768	20	291.2
24	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:58.341	+3.464	17	294.0

FP3 · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:55.254	—	18	298.3
2	Valentino Rossi	01:55.283	+0.029	19	295.1
3	Andrea Iannone	01:55.499	+0.245	17	298.0
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.558	+0.304	19	294.9
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.655	+0.401	12	298.1
6	Alex Rins	01:56.139	+0.885	18	298.8
7	Pol Espargaro	01:56.218	+0.964	18	298.5
8	Johann Zarco	01:56.257	+1.003	17	297.6
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.267	+1.013	19	288.5
10	Sam Lowes	01:56.281	+1.027	16	293.2
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.329	+1.075	18	299.4
12	Maverick Viñales	01:56.354	+1.100	14	297.2
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.383	+1.129	17	297.3
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.498	+1.244	16	295.2
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.787	+1.533	16	291.4
16	Bradley Smith	01:56.840	+1.586	17	291.4
17	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:57.218	+1.964	19	297.4
18	Loris Baz	01:57.237	+1.983	15	292.1
19	Tito Rabat	01:57.247	+1.993	20	292.2
20	Karel Abraham	01:57.405	+2.151	16	293.5
21	Hector Barbera	01:57.463	+2.209	18	295.2
22	Kohta Nozane	01:57.497	+2.243	15	295.8
23	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:58.528	+3.274	17	293.7
24	Scott Redding	01:58.730	+3.476	14	293.6

FP4 · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:54.581	—	12	297.8
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.113	+1.532	14	294.0
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.537	+1.956	10	297.5
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.756	+2.175	13	299.0
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.768	+2.187	12	297.7
6	Johann Zarco	01:57.026	+2.445	8	296.7
7	Valentino Rossi	01:57.112	+2.531	11	293.3
8	Maverick Viñales	01:57.231	+2.650	11	298.1
9	Tito Rabat	01:57.534	+2.953	14	290.7
10	Sam Lowes	01:57.565	+2.984	6	290.3
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:57.627	+3.046	13	291.8
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.758	+3.177	11	287.5
13	Alex Rins	01:57.802	+3.221	11	297.2
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.850	+3.269	10	296.8
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:57.925	+3.344	11	293.3
16	Andrea Iannone	01:58.013	+3.432	11	294.3
17	Pol Espargaro	01:58.190	+3.609	12	293.6
18	Loris Baz	01:58.294	+3.713	10	294.1
19	Kohta Nozane	01:58.415	+3.834	2	292.0
20	Karel Abraham	01:58.498	+3.917	8	286.8
21	Scott Redding	01:58.552	+3.971	10	293.8
22	Hector Barbera	01:58.689	+4.108	9	289.0
23	Bradley Smith	01:58.744	+4.163	9	287.3
24	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:58.750	+4.169	12	293.5

Q1 · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Pol Espargaro	01:55.258	—	6	300.3
2	Bradley Smith	01:55.844	+0.586	5	293.8
3	Loris Baz	01:55.862	+0.604	7	291.9
4	Maverick Viñales	01:55.916	+0.658	6	295.0
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.952	+0.694	8	292.5
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.292	+1.034	6	295.8
7	Hector Barbera	01:56.668	+1.410	7	298.4
8	Sam Lowes	01:56.771	+1.513	8	293.0
9	Tito Rabat	01:56.903	+1.645	6	292.1
10	Karel Abraham	01:57.144	+1.886	6	299.0
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:57.157	+1.899	8	293.2
12	Scott Redding	01:57.787	+2.529	7	297.2
13	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:57.861	+2.603	8	291.5
14	Kohta Nozane	02:01.730	+6.472	2	289.4

Q2 · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Johann Zarco	01:53.469	—	7	297.7
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:53.787	+0.318	7	300.9
3	Marc Marquez	01:53.903	+0.434	7	295.8
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:53.947	+0.478	7	298.6
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:54.235	+0.766	7	298.7
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:54.342	+0.873	7	293.8
7	Bradley Smith	01:54.872	+1.403	7	294.9
8	Pol Espargaro	01:54.906	+1.437	4	297.0
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.064	+1.595	7	297.1
10	Alex Rins	01:55.483	+2.014	7	296.9
11	Andrea Iannone	01:55.617	+2.148	6	295.6
12	Valentino Rossi	01:57.786	+4.317	6	289.8

Warm Up · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:56.719	—	8	293.0
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.125	+0.406	8	295.2
3	Alex Rins	01:57.215	+0.496	8	292.0
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:57.303	+0.584	8	293.4
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.435	+0.716	8	294.5
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.473	+0.754	8	290.6
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.493	+0.774	7	292.7
8	Andrea Iannone	01:57.554	+0.835	8	289.1
9	Kohta Nozane	01:58.023	+1.304	8	291.6
10	Pol Espargaro	01:58.115	+1.396	7	286.9
11	Loris Baz	01:58.141	+1.422	8	289.7
12	Valentino Rossi	01:58.364	+1.645	8	288.5
13	Sam Lowes	01:58.382	+1.663	8	290.9
14	Johann Zarco	01:58.424	+1.705	8	293.8
15	Maverick Viñales	01:58.451	+1.732	8	291.7
16	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:58.708	+1.989	8	286.0
17	Hector Barbera	01:58.723	+2.004	8	278.8
18	Tito Rabat	01:58.943	+2.224	8	286.4
19	Daniel Pedrosa	01:58.959	+2.240	7	277.2
20	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:58.999	+2.280	8	293.0
21	Bradley Smith	01:59.515	+2.796	3	284.8
22	Alvaro Bautista	02:00.200	+3.481	8	286.0
23	Karel Abraham	02:00.356	+3.637	6	276.9
24	Scott Redding	02:01.902	+5.183	7	290.0

Race · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Andrea Dovizioso	47:14.236	25	24
2	Marc Marquez	+0.249	20	24
3	Danilo Petrucci	+10.557	16	24
4	Andrea Iannone	+18.845	13	24
5	Alex Rins	+22.982	11	24
6	Jorge Lorenzo	+24.464	10	24
7	Aleix Espargaro	+28.010	9	24
8	Johann Zarco	+29.475	8	24
9	Maverick Viñales	+36.575	7	24
10	Loris Baz	+48.506	6	24
11	Pol Espargaro	+56.357	5	24
12	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	+60.181	4	24
13	Sam Lowes	+60.980	3	24
14	Hector Barbera	+63.118	2	24
15	Tito Rabat	+63.514	1	24
16	Scott Redding	+64.162	0	24
17	Bradley Smith	+66.271	0	24
18	Hiroshi Aoyama	+73.250	0	24
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	21
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	14
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		0	20
Retired	Karel Abraham		0	19
Retired	Kohta Nozane		0	3
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	5

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Cal Crutchlow	58%	5
2	Pol Espargaro	46%	1 ✓
3	Sam Lowes	38%	8
4	Maverick Viñales	16%	4
5	Kohta Nozane	18%	14
6	Alvaro Bautista	5%	6
7	Scott Redding	8%	12
8	Karel Abraham	4%	10
9	Bradley Smith	1%	2 ✓
10	Hiroshi Aoyama	4%	11
11	Loris Baz	3%	3
12	Tito Rabat	0%	9
13	Hector Barbera	0%	7
14	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	44%	76%	94%	3
2	Andrea Dovizioso	21%	51%	86%	9
3	Aleix Espargaro	17%	50%	86%	4
4	Jorge Lorenzo	4%	35%	67%	5
5	Valentino Rossi	4%	30%	60%	12
6	Johann Zarco	5%	20%	60%	1
7	Andrea Iannone	1%	12%	45%	11
8	Danilo Petrucci	4%	12%	32%	2
9	Daniel Pedrosa	1%	6%	26%	6
10	Alex Rins	0%	4%	14%	10
11	Pol Espargaro	0%	4%	19%	8
12	Bradley Smith	0%	1%	13%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Johann Zarco	1	33%	62%	78%	87%	11%	8
Danilo Petrucci	2	17%	44%	60%	73%	25%	3
Marc Marquez	3	14%	43%	63%	80%	15%	2
Aleix Espargaro	4	11%	34%	53%	74%	22%	7
Jorge Lorenzo	5	7%	31%	55%	84%	9%	6
Daniel Pedrosa	6	6%	25%	46%	81%	10%	—
Bradley Smith	7	4%	19%	40%	77%	13%	17
Pol Espargaro	8	2%	12%	28%	65%	21%	11
Andrea Dovizioso	9	2%	9%	22%	69%	12%	1
Alex Rins	10	1%	6%	17%	61%	14%	5
Andrea Iannone	11	1%	4%	11%	45%	30%	4
Valentino Rossi	12	0%	3%	10%	50%	9%	—
Loris Baz	13	0%	2%	6%	36%	20%	10
Maverick Viñales	14	0%	2%	5%	34%	11%	9
Cal Crutchlow	15	0%	1%	3%	21%	29%	—
Alvaro Bautista	16	0%	1%	2%	19%	20%	—
Hector Barbera	17	0%	1%	1%	14%	15%	14
Sam Lowes	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	36%	13
Tito Rabat	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	14%	15
Karel Abraham	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	31%	—
Hiroshi Aoyama	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	10%	18
Scott Redding	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	16
Katsuyuki Nakasuga	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	12
Kohta Nozane	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	224	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	208	−16
3	Maverick Viñales	196	−28
4	Daniel Pedrosa	170	−54
5	Valentino Rossi	168	−56
6	Johann Zarco	117	−107

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2016 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

21/24

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.992 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Katsuyuki Nakasuga, from P16 to P11.

Longest battle: Bradley Smith vs Yonny Hernandez (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet