MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 12 of 18 Aftermath

British Grand Prix 2016

Silverstone Circuit United Kingdom

5.900 m · 20 laps · since 1977
02.09 – 04.09.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR39:03.55925
2Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+3.48020
3Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+4.06316
4Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+5.99213
5Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+6.38111
6Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+12.30310
7Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+16.6729
8Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+19.4328
9Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+25.6187
10Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+32.0846
11Yonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+36.1315
12Eugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+39.1304
13Alex LowesYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+40.1433
14Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+41.3562
15Tito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+41.9431
16Jack MillerHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+47.6100
17Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+116.1770
DNFAndrea IannoneDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFLoris BazDucatiAvintia RacingDid not start0
DNFPol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3Did not start0
DNFStefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team GresiniRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Valentino Rossi · 24%Maverick Viñales · 16% · from P30.69 / 0.692.7 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

50
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
19/19
Laps led by the winner
Maverick Viñales
3.480 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P19 to P10.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Yonny Hernandez (14 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race15:32:02Pol EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:32:02Loris BazCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:32:10Red flagRed flag
Race15:54:07Loris BazDid not startDid not start
Race15:54:07Pol EspargaroDid not startDid not start
Race15:54:43Jump startJump start
Race15:58:46Stefan BradlCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:59:34Scott ReddingCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race16:06:48Scott ReddingCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race16:22:46Andrea IannoneCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race16:34:39Aleix EspargaroTime penalty1 second penalty

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
— °C
Air
max — °C
—
Humidity
Dry
Rain
— km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 02.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales02:02.483—15316.9
2Jorge Lorenzo02:02.765+0.28214316.9
3Marc Marquez02:03.563+1.08013315.2
4Valentino Rossi02:03.591+1.10816315.7
5Andrea Dovizioso02:03.637+1.15413320.7
6Pol Espargaro02:03.714+1.23117317.1
7Andrea Iannone02:04.027+1.54417322.4
8Daniel Pedrosa02:04.037+1.55416316.4
9Scott Redding02:04.138+1.65515315.3
10Danilo Petrucci02:04.170+1.68716314.4
11Cal Crutchlow02:04.247+1.76416313.6
12Aleix Espargaro02:04.443+1.96015312.2
13Eugene Laverty02:04.473+1.99014315.6
14Yonny Hernandez02:04.491+2.00816314.5
15Stefan Bradl02:04.905+2.42215312.5
16Alvaro Bautista02:05.134+2.65116313.2
17Hector Barbera02:05.196+2.71311313.4
18Loris Baz02:05.540+3.05715311.3
19Jack Miller02:05.662+3.17916314.2
20Tito Rabat02:06.016+3.53317306.7
21Alex Lowes02:06.225+3.74213310.2
FP2 · 02.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone02:01.421—17325.9
2Maverick Viñales02:01.721+0.30015316.5
3Cal Crutchlow02:01.917+0.49615318.3
4Jorge Lorenzo02:02.032+0.61115316.2
5Marc Marquez02:02.240+0.81916316.6
6Valentino Rossi02:02.262+0.84118316.2
7Andrea Dovizioso02:02.267+0.84616325.0
8Aleix Espargaro02:02.364+0.94315314.4
9Daniel Pedrosa02:02.372+0.95117318.0
10Scott Redding02:02.533+1.11214315.8
11Pol Espargaro02:02.573+1.15216317.4
12Hector Barbera02:02.608+1.18712318.9
13Danilo Petrucci02:02.985+1.56417318.8
14Eugene Laverty02:03.118+1.69716314.9
15Loris Baz02:03.370+1.94914313.0
16Yonny Hernandez02:03.380+1.95916314.5
17Jack Miller02:03.631+2.21012315.1
18Stefan Bradl02:03.642+2.22115315.3
19Alex Lowes02:03.855+2.43415312.1
20Alvaro Bautista02:04.400+2.97916315.4
21Tito Rabat02:05.196+3.77517311.2
FP3 · 03.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez02:00.944—15320.8
2Maverick Viñales02:00.947+0.00316319.2
3Andrea Iannone02:01.060+0.11615323.9
4Cal Crutchlow02:01.241+0.29715318.0
5Jorge Lorenzo02:01.506+0.56217318.0
6Scott Redding02:01.562+0.61816317.4
7Andrea Dovizioso02:01.659+0.71516324.9
8Daniel Pedrosa02:01.774+0.83016318.3
9Aleix Espargaro02:01.841+0.89715318.9
10Valentino Rossi02:02.053+1.10917318.4
11Pol Espargaro02:02.163+1.21918317.0
12Danilo Petrucci02:02.200+1.25616314.5
13Hector Barbera02:02.855+1.91114317.2
14Yonny Hernandez02:02.944+2.00013315.6
15Jack Miller02:03.008+2.06414317.4
16Alex Lowes02:03.081+2.13716312.8
17Loris Baz02:03.239+2.29515315.1
18Stefan Bradl02:03.624+2.68014312.6
19Alvaro Bautista02:03.803+2.85913316.3
20Eugene Laverty02:04.098+3.15415318.3
21Tito Rabat02:04.186+3.24216313.5
FP4 · 03.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez02:17.678—11298.7
2Andrea Dovizioso02:17.688+0.01011309.9
3Cal Crutchlow02:17.762+0.08411301.2
4Daniel Pedrosa02:18.185+0.50711290.3
5Andrea Iannone02:18.262+0.58410289.6
6Valentino Rossi02:18.421+0.74311299.3
7Jorge Lorenzo02:18.656+0.97813297.9
8Eugene Laverty02:19.106+1.4289297.6
9Hector Barbera02:19.175+1.4979296.3
10Jack Miller02:19.186+1.50811300.2
11Danilo Petrucci02:19.228+1.55011300.9
12Alex Lowes02:19.464+1.78610295.0
13Pol Espargaro02:20.307+2.62912295.9
14Alvaro Bautista02:20.395+2.71710286.0
15Loris Baz02:20.514+2.83610290.4
16Scott Redding02:20.814+3.1368291.2
17Maverick Viñales02:21.674+3.99610302.1
18Stefan Bradl02:21.745+4.06710286.0
19Aleix Espargaro02:22.070+4.3929289.3
20Tito Rabat02:23.652+5.97410287.0
21Yonny Hernandez02:26.333+8.6554286.3
Q1 · 03.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Eugene Laverty02:18.193—7300.6
2Jack Miller02:18.531+0.3386298.9
3Loris Baz02:18.552+0.3596289.6
4Danilo Petrucci02:18.657+0.4647299.4
5Pol Espargaro02:18.871+0.6787298.6
6Alex Lowes02:18.900+0.7076298.8
7Stefan Bradl02:19.115+0.9226292.3
8Hector Barbera02:19.125+0.9327297.1
9Alvaro Bautista02:20.299+2.1065283.7
10Yonny Hernandez02:21.255+3.0627295.3
11Tito Rabat02:21.774+3.5816285.1
Q2 · 03.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Cal Crutchlow02:19.265—6298.8
2Valentino Rossi02:20.263+0.9986295.2
3Maverick Viñales02:20.514+1.2497302.2
4Daniel Pedrosa02:20.742+1.4777281.7
5Marc Marquez02:20.779+1.5145292.4
6Eugene Laverty02:20.821+1.5564302.5
7Scott Redding02:21.074+1.8096292.2
8Andrea Iannone02:21.446+2.1816299.3
9Jorge Lorenzo02:21.687+2.4227295.4
10Andrea Dovizioso02:22.420+3.1554284.2
11Aleix Espargaro02:25.285+6.0206287.1
RetiredJack Miller—00.0
Warm Up · 04.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Yonny Hernandez02:15.285—7307.4
2Loris Baz02:15.975+0.6909299.4
3Alex Lowes02:16.052+0.7673301.3
4Andrea Dovizioso02:16.835+1.5503300.5
5Jorge Lorenzo02:17.115+1.8307291.1
6Scott Redding02:17.862+2.5775301.8
7Andrea Iannone02:18.081+2.7964279.3
8Eugene Laverty02:19.898+4.6136270.6
9Tito Rabat02:20.391+5.1065285.3
10Hector Barbera02:20.621+5.3366292.3
11Valentino Rossi02:20.719+5.4346294.3
12Daniel Pedrosa02:24.179+8.8944272.9
RetiredAleix Espargaro—00.0
RetiredAlvaro Bautista—00.0
RetiredCal Crutchlow—00.0
RetiredDanilo Petrucci—00.0
RetiredJack Miller—00.0
RetiredMarc Marquez—00.0
RetiredMaverick Viñales—00.0
RetiredPol Espargaro—00.0
RetiredStefan Bradl—00.0
Race · 04.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Maverick Viñales39:03.5592519
2Cal Crutchlow+3.4802019
3Valentino Rossi+4.0631619
4Marc Marquez+5.9921319
5Daniel Pedrosa+6.3811119
6Andrea Dovizioso+12.3031019
7Aleix Espargaro+16.672919
8Jorge Lorenzo+19.432819
9Danilo Petrucci+25.618719
10Alvaro Bautista+32.084619
11Yonny Hernandez+36.131519
12Eugene Laverty+39.130419
13Alex Lowes+40.143319
14Hector Barbera+41.356219
15Tito Rabat+41.943119
16Jack Miller+47.610019
17Scott Redding+116.177019
RetiredAndrea Iannone013
Did not startLoris Baz00
Did not startPol Espargaro00
RetiredStefan Bradl02

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Cal Crutchlow123%48%59%68%29%2
Valentino Rossi224%55%74%89%9%3
Maverick Viñales316%47%67%84%12%1
Daniel Pedrosa413%40%62%87%9%5
Marc Marquez57%28%50%79%14%4
Eugene Laverty65%23%44%79%12%12
Scott Redding74%18%37%75%15%17
Andrea Iannone82%12%26%61%27%—
Jorge Lorenzo92%9%22%73%8%8
Andrea Dovizioso101%7%19%64%13%6
Aleix Espargaro111%4%12%52%19%7
Jack Miller120%2%7%35%35%16
Loris Baz130%3%7%39%22%—
Danilo Petrucci140%1%4%29%25%9
Pol Espargaro150%1%3%24%21%—
Alex Lowes160%1%2%21%19%13
Stefan Bradl170%0%2%14%21%—
Hector Barbera180%0%1%12%14%14
Alvaro Bautista190%0%1%7%19%10
Yonny Hernandez200%0%0%5%28%11
Tito Rabat210%0%0%5%13%15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · ViñalesS2 · ViñalesS3 · OguraS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,905 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

48/100
Position index
0%
Pole wins
38%
Front row on the podium
0.72
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 6% and 79%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2019–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

57
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
19/20
Laps led by the winner
Valentino Rossi
3.010 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P18 to P2.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Danilo Petrucci (14 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Raul FernandezAprilia
  • 2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
  • 2024Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20267/2330%
20253/2214%
20244/2218%
20235/2223%
20222/248%
20212/2110%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet