Round 11 of 18 Aftermath

Czech Grand Prix 2016

5.403 m · since 1930

19.08 – 21.08.2016

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	47:44.290	25
2	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+7.298	20
3	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+9.587	16
4	Loris Baz	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+12.558	13
5	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+13.093	11
6	Eugene Laverty	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+13.812	10
7	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+23.414	9
8	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Ducati Team	+24.562	8
9	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+24.581	7
10	Tito Rabat	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	+37.131	6
11	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+39.911	5
12	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+41.097	4
13	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+43.202	3
14	Stefan Bradl	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+45.687	2
15	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+62.201	1
16	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+78.841	0
17	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+0.000	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 29%	Cal Crutchlow · 1% · from P10	0.24 / 0.24	4.3 / 4.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

113

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

7/22

Laps led by the winner

Cal Crutchlow

7.298 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Loris Baz, from P17 to P4.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Maverick Viñales (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:59		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:31:27	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Retired
Race	14:33:35	Bradley Smith	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:37:01	Andrea Dovizioso	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #9

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Scott Redding	13	6	+7
Andrea Dovizioso	7	2	+5
Danilo Petrucci	16	11	+5
Jorge Lorenzo	2	10	−8
Valentino Rossi	6	12	−6
Cal Crutchlow	10	15	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Loris Baz	17→4	+9.1
Cal Crutchlow	10→1	+7.6
Danilo Petrucci	16→7	+5.5
Daniel Pedrosa	9→12	−4.0
Scott Redding	13→15	−4.5
Jorge Lorenzo	2→17	−13.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

— °C

Air

max — °C

—

Humidity

1.4 mm

Rain

— km/h

Wind

gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 19.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Iannone	01:56.189	—	15	311.3
2	Valentino Rossi	01:56.454	+0.265	17	305.6
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.673	+0.484	15	307.6
4	Hector Barbera	01:56.964	+0.775	16	308.3
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.037	+0.848	17	312.2
6	Marc Marquez	01:57.085	+0.896	16	306.2
7	Maverick Viñales	01:57.176	+0.987	18	307.2
8	Scott Redding	01:57.504	+1.315	18	306.2
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:57.524	+1.335	17	309.2
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.538	+1.349	16	303.8
11	Bradley Smith	01:57.599	+1.410	17	306.2
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.621	+1.432	16	307.2
13	Pol Espargaro	01:58.086	+1.897	16	305.3
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:58.321	+2.132	18	305.8
15	Stefan Bradl	01:58.481	+2.292	17	304.1
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:58.660	+2.471	18	304.9
17	Alvaro Bautista	01:58.685	+2.496	18	300.1
18	Tito Rabat	01:58.834	+2.645	21	301.7
19	Loris Baz	01:59.116	+2.927	15	300.1
20	Eugene Laverty	01:59.352	+3.163	16	306.5

FP2 · 19.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:55.840	—	15	307.8
2	Andrea Iannone	01:55.944	+0.104	18	311.0
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.977	+0.137	17	307.2
4	Hector Barbera	01:56.124	+0.284	17	307.7
5	Valentino Rossi	01:56.174	+0.334	18	307.7
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.235	+0.395	16	312.3
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.441	+0.601	13	305.9
8	Bradley Smith	01:56.494	+0.654	15	308.0
9	Maverick Viñales	01:56.615	+0.775	18	306.4
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.662	+0.822	17	309.6
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.837	+0.997	17	306.6
12	Loris Baz	01:56.957	+1.117	16	304.9
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.052	+1.212	17	306.2
14	Scott Redding	01:57.090	+1.250	15	308.0
15	Pol Espargaro	01:57.335	+1.495	16	306.1
16	Eugene Laverty	01:57.336	+1.496	16	308.3
17	Stefan Bradl	01:57.471	+1.631	17	304.3
18	Alvaro Bautista	01:57.569	+1.729	18	303.4
19	Yonny Hernandez	01:57.724	+1.884	18	306.9
20	Tito Rabat	01:58.054	+2.214	20	305.5

FP3 · 20.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:54.791	—	15	310.4
2	Andrea Iannone	01:55.535	+0.744	15	312.4
3	Marc Marquez	01:55.562	+0.771	18	307.8
4	Maverick Viñales	01:55.604	+0.813	17	309.0
5	Valentino Rossi	01:55.708	+0.917	18	309.4
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.793	+1.002	17	306.0
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.051	+1.260	18	312.4
8	Pol Espargaro	01:56.143	+1.352	19	309.1
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.161	+1.370	17	307.5
10	Scott Redding	01:56.332	+1.541	15	304.6
11	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.405	+1.614	15	311.0
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.551	+1.760	18	309.5
13	Bradley Smith	01:56.656	+1.865	19	306.9
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.845	+2.054	17	306.9
15	Stefan Bradl	01:57.015	+2.224	16	308.3
16	Eugene Laverty	01:57.202	+2.411	12	310.3
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:57.443	+2.652	13	306.6
18	Hector Barbera	01:57.526	+2.735	14	308.5
19	Tito Rabat	01:57.815	+3.024	20	307.4
20	Loris Baz	01:58.144	+3.353	12	303.1

FP4 · 20.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.275	—	12	308.4
2	Andrea Iannone	01:56.277	+0.002	11	311.5
3	Marc Marquez	01:56.399	+0.124	12	308.1
4	Valentino Rossi	01:56.628	+0.353	13	308.3
5	Maverick Viñales	01:56.769	+0.494	13	308.3
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.905	+0.630	12	310.9
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.939	+0.664	10	309.7
8	Hector Barbera	01:57.083	+0.808	9	303.8
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.163	+0.888	10	303.2
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.165	+0.890	11	307.6
11	Bradley Smith	01:57.447	+1.172	12	304.1
12	Pol Espargaro	01:57.473	+1.198	9	307.0
13	Scott Redding	01:57.518	+1.243	12	306.9
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.613	+1.338	11	307.0
15	Stefan Bradl	01:57.941	+1.666	13	307.7
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:58.119	+1.844	13	305.6
17	Eugene Laverty	01:58.146	+1.871	11	307.4
18	Tito Rabat	01:58.241	+1.966	14	304.3
19	Loris Baz	01:58.426	+2.151	12	302.1
20	Yonny Hernandez	01:58.604	+2.329	9	304.9

Q1 · 20.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.793	—	6	309.5
2	Bradley Smith	01:55.857	+0.064	7	306.7
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.148	+0.355	6	307.1
4	Scott Redding	01:56.263	+0.470	6	306.3
5	Eugene Laverty	01:56.535	+0.742	6	308.9
6	Stefan Bradl	01:56.718	+0.925	7	306.0
7	Loris Baz	01:56.797	+1.004	6	303.7
8	Yonny Hernandez	01:56.805	+1.012	6	305.2
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:57.062	+1.269	3	304.7
10	Tito Rabat	01:57.606	+1.813	7	307.0

Q2 · 20.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:54.596	—	7	309.8
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:54.849	+0.253	7	308.9
3	Andrea Iannone	01:55.227	+0.631	7	312.4
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.324	+0.728	7	304.1
5	Hector Barbera	01:55.437	+0.841	7	308.3
6	Valentino Rossi	01:55.509	+0.913	7	308.0
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.748	+1.152	6	309.8
8	Maverick Viñales	01:55.787	+1.191	6	307.7
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.841	+1.245	7	310.7
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.930	+1.334	7	306.7
11	Bradley Smith	01:56.115	+1.519	7	305.4
12	Pol Espargaro	01:56.522	+1.926	7	308.7

Warm Up · 21.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Scott Redding	02:09.500	—	8	286.9
2	Andrea Iannone	02:10.546	+1.046	6	280.4
3	Loris Baz	02:10.955	+1.455	9	266.5
4	Marc Marquez	02:11.083	+1.583	9	277.8
5	Eugene Laverty	02:11.140	+1.640	9	281.3
6	Andrea Dovizioso	02:11.150	+1.650	9	281.1
7	Maverick Viñales	02:11.406	+1.906	9	291.5
8	Bradley Smith	02:11.536	+2.036	9	270.3
9	Cal Crutchlow	02:11.734	+2.234	8	286.9
10	Valentino Rossi	02:11.787	+2.287	9	279.3
11	Alvaro Bautista	02:12.445	+2.945	9	263.7
12	Pol Espargaro	02:12.699	+3.199	9	262.3
13	Hector Barbera	02:12.748	+3.248	7	273.6
14	Danilo Petrucci	02:12.763	+3.263	9	270.0
15	Stefan Bradl	02:12.981	+3.481	9	277.3
16	Daniel Pedrosa	02:13.274	+3.774	8	258.2
17	Jorge Lorenzo	02:13.683	+4.183	9	266.7
18	Aleix Espargaro	02:13.715	+4.215	7	278.7
19	Yonny Hernandez	02:14.227	+4.727	9	280.5
20	Tito Rabat	02:15.784	+6.284	9	274.2

Race · 21.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Cal Crutchlow	47:44.290	25	22
2	Valentino Rossi	+7.298	20	22
3	Marc Marquez	+9.587	16	22
4	Loris Baz	+12.558	13	22
5	Hector Barbera	+13.093	11	22
6	Eugene Laverty	+13.812	10	22
7	Danilo Petrucci	+23.414	9	22
8	Andrea Iannone	+24.562	8	22
9	Maverick Viñales	+24.581	7	22
10	Tito Rabat	+37.131	6	22
11	Yonny Hernandez	+39.911	5	22
12	Daniel Pedrosa	+41.097	4	22
13	Pol Espargaro	+43.202	3	22
14	Stefan Bradl	+45.687	2	22
15	Scott Redding	+62.201	1	22
16	Alvaro Bautista	+78.841	0	22
17	Jorge Lorenzo	+0.000	0	21
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	13
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		0	15
Retired	Bradley Smith		0	14

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Scott Redding	64%	4
2	Daniel Pedrosa	52%	1 ✓
3	Bradley Smith	40%	2 ✓
4	Danilo Petrucci	16%	3
5	Alvaro Bautista	13%	9
6	Loris Baz	5%	7
7	Stefan Bradl	8%	6
8	Eugene Laverty	3%	5
9	Yonny Hernandez	0%	8
10	Tito Rabat	0%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jorge Lorenzo	48%	79%	95%	2
2	Andrea Iannone	22%	54%	86%	3
3	Marc Marquez	16%	51%	89%	1
4	Maverick Viñales	3%	35%	68%	8
5	Valentino Rossi	3%	33%	67%	6
6	Aleix Espargaro	5%	19%	59%	4
7	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	13%	48%	7
8	Hector Barbera	0%	10%	29%	5
9	Pol Espargaro	2%	3%	21%	12
10	Cal Crutchlow	0%	2%	14%	10
11	Daniel Pedrosa	0%	0%	11%	9
12	Bradley Smith	0%	2%	16%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Danilo Petrucci	13	16	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penaltiy for rider #9

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	29%	60%	73%	83%	15%	3
Jorge Lorenzo	2	24%	57%	74%	90%	8%	17
Andrea Iannone	3	12%	38%	54%	70%	27%	8
Aleix Espargaro	4	10%	34%	56%	78%	18%	—
Hector Barbera	5	7%	29%	51%	80%	15%	5
Valentino Rossi	6	6%	24%	45%	83%	9%	2
Andrea Dovizioso	7	4%	18%	39%	77%	12%	—
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	13%	31%	73%	12%	9
Daniel Pedrosa	9	2%	9%	23%	71%	9%	12
Cal Crutchlow	10	1%	5%	14%	50%	29%	1
Bradley Smith	11	1%	5%	13%	57%	12%	—
Pol Espargaro	12	0%	3%	8%	42%	21%	13
Scott Redding	13	0%	2%	6%	40%	16%	15
Eugene Laverty	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	12%	6
Stefan Bradl	15	0%	1%	3%	23%	22%	14
Danilo Petrucci	16	0%	1%	2%	18%	25%	7
Loris Baz	17	0%	1%	1%	13%	23%	4
Yonny Hernandez	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	29%	11
Alvaro Bautista	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	20%	16
Tito Rabat	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	14%	10

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,401 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Maverick Viñales +0.47%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Raul Fernandez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Raul Fernandez +0.24%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.42%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pol Espargaro +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.32%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.40%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.05%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.06%	Franco Morbidelli +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S4	Pol Espargaro +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.39%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.03%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.30%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.41%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.10%	Cal Crutchlow +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Maverick Viñales +0.36%	Andrea Iannone +0.37%
S2	Marc Marquez	Daniel Pedrosa +0.44%	Valentino Rossi +0.45%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Maverick Viñales +0.48%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

81/100

Position index

40%

Pole wins

60%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 44% and 100%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	181	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	138	−43
3	Valentino Rossi	124	−57
4	Daniel Pedrosa	105	−76
5	Maverick Viñales	93	−88
6	Andrea Iannone	88	−93

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

22/22

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

4.462 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P19 to P13.

Longest battle: Maverick Viñales vs Pol Espargaro (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2020Brad BinderKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda
2015Jorge LorenzoYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/20	15%
2025	3/21	14%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	3/23	13%
2018	5/25	20%
2017	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet