MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 13 of 18 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2016

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980
09.09 – 11.09.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team43:43.52425
2Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+2.83720
3Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+4.35916
4Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+9.56913
5Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+15.46711
6Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+19.67610
7Michele PirroDucatiDucati Team+22.9369
8Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+25.7028
9Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+27.1557
10Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+33.9686
11Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+39.2065
12Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+39.9674
13Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+42.9973
14Eugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+49.4502
15Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+54.8791
16Yonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+65.0720
17Tito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+0.0000
DNFAleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTARRetired0
DNFAlex LowesYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3Retired0
DNFXavi ForesDucatiAvintia RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Jorge Lorenzo · 31%Daniel Pedrosa · 3% · from P80.90 / 0.901.5 / 1.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

18
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
3 leaders
7/28
Laps led by the winner
Daniel Pedrosa
2.837 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Daniel Pedrosa, from P8 to P1.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Maverick Viñales (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:01:27Jump startJump start
Race14:02:49Tito RabatCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:12:04Alex LowesCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:26:34Xavi ForesRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:27:03Maverick ViñalesPosition penaltyTo drop 1 position - due to exceeding t
Race14:28:18Aleix EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:29:45Aleix EspargaroRetiredEntered pits and retired
RaceSanctionFIM MotoGP Stewards time penalty cancelled for rider #35

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
— °C
Air
max — °C
—
Humidity
11.9 mm
Rain
— km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 09.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Valentino Rossi01:33.451—20288.6
2Pol Espargaro01:33.587+0.13621288.9
3Maverick Viñales01:33.713+0.26218291.1
4Marc Marquez01:33.729+0.27820289.0
5Jorge Lorenzo01:33.774+0.32319291.4
6Daniel Pedrosa01:33.786+0.33520290.4
7Andrea Dovizioso01:33.863+0.41217293.0
8Hector Barbera01:33.882+0.43119289.6
9Cal Crutchlow01:33.920+0.46919287.7
10Scott Redding01:34.034+0.58321286.7
11Aleix Espargaro01:34.072+0.62117286.5
12Stefan Bradl01:34.126+0.67520287.1
13Jack Miller01:34.143+0.69217287.6
14Michele Pirro01:34.234+0.78319292.3
15Danilo Petrucci01:34.412+0.96114288.0
16Alvaro Bautista01:34.496+1.04521287.2
17Andrea Iannone01:34.699+1.2484293.6
18Alex Lowes01:34.923+1.47222287.3
19Yonny Hernandez01:34.925+1.47418287.6
20Eugene Laverty01:35.280+1.82915289.4
21Tito Rabat01:35.302+1.85119285.1
22Xavi Fores01:37.090+3.63918284.0
FP2 · 09.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Pol Espargaro01:32.769—19289.1
2Daniel Pedrosa01:32.834+0.06522289.6
3Andrea Dovizioso01:32.901+0.13220294.1
4Jorge Lorenzo01:33.056+0.28718290.4
5Marc Marquez01:33.196+0.42720286.6
6Valentino Rossi01:33.387+0.61820286.7
7Cal Crutchlow01:33.500+0.73119286.9
8Scott Redding01:33.552+0.78319288.3
9Hector Barbera01:33.581+0.81218287.6
10Maverick Viñales01:33.629+0.86020289.2
11Aleix Espargaro01:33.643+0.87420284.8
12Danilo Petrucci01:33.803+1.03419289.3
13Alvaro Bautista01:33.846+1.07722286.6
14Michele Pirro01:33.885+1.11620289.5
15Alex Lowes01:34.154+1.38521288.0
16Eugene Laverty01:34.457+1.68817289.2
17Stefan Bradl01:34.631+1.86218284.8
18Yonny Hernandez01:34.719+1.95019288.4
19Tito Rabat01:34.725+1.95622283.6
20Jack Miller01:35.062+2.29318283.6
21Xavi Fores01:36.046+3.27718282.6
RetiredAndrea Iannone—00.0
FP3 · 10.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:32.451—22289.9
2Jorge Lorenzo01:32.631+0.18017292.6
3Maverick Viñales01:32.839+0.38819291.4
4Pol Espargaro01:32.861+0.41023290.8
5Cal Crutchlow01:33.074+0.62318291.1
6Valentino Rossi01:33.075+0.62421290.6
7Michele Pirro01:33.086+0.63517295.1
8Aleix Espargaro01:33.272+0.82115286.7
9Daniel Pedrosa01:33.319+0.86820293.3
10Alvaro Bautista01:33.480+1.02922290.2
11Scott Redding01:33.598+1.14719289.2
12Hector Barbera01:33.598+1.14719292.2
13Andrea Dovizioso01:33.830+1.37919297.1
14Alex Lowes01:33.835+1.38420287.9
15Danilo Petrucci01:33.983+1.53218290.0
16Yonny Hernandez01:34.011+1.56020290.2
17Jack Miller01:34.165+1.71417288.2
18Stefan Bradl01:34.171+1.72020287.9
19Tito Rabat01:34.222+1.77125287.5
20Eugene Laverty01:34.989+2.53820291.8
21Xavi Fores01:35.471+3.02017285.0
FP4 · 10.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Valentino Rossi01:33.043—13288.4
2Daniel Pedrosa01:33.461+0.41816291.0
3Marc Marquez01:33.462+0.41916287.7
4Jorge Lorenzo01:33.515+0.47215292.2
5Cal Crutchlow01:33.577+0.53415286.7
6Pol Espargaro01:33.653+0.61015290.8
7Aleix Espargaro01:33.671+0.62812284.4
8Maverick Viñales01:33.677+0.63415290.4
9Andrea Dovizioso01:33.719+0.67613292.5
10Michele Pirro01:33.963+0.92011290.5
11Alex Lowes01:34.193+1.15015286.5
12Danilo Petrucci01:34.197+1.15412287.0
13Hector Barbera01:34.200+1.15715290.0
14Tito Rabat01:34.259+1.21617284.3
15Alvaro Bautista01:34.346+1.30316288.3
16Scott Redding01:34.434+1.39113286.8
17Stefan Bradl01:34.478+1.43514285.3
18Jack Miller01:34.799+1.75613286.9
19Yonny Hernandez01:34.817+1.77414286.0
20Eugene Laverty01:34.865+1.82213288.0
21Xavi Fores01:35.937+2.89411283.6
Q1 · 10.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Michele Pirro01:33.059—5289.8
2Hector Barbera01:33.098+0.0398288.4
3Stefan Bradl01:33.399+0.3408283.9
4Alex Lowes01:33.635+0.5768286.1
5Danilo Petrucci01:33.716+0.6577287.6
6Eugene Laverty01:33.772+0.7139287.8
7Jack Miller01:33.847+0.7888286.7
8Scott Redding01:33.989+0.9307288.0
9Tito Rabat01:34.302+1.2438284.7
10Yonny Hernandez01:34.465+1.4067284.5
11Xavi Fores01:35.161+2.1028283.4
Q2 · 10.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:31.868—8289.8
2Valentino Rossi01:32.216+0.3488289.2
3Maverick Viñales01:32.381+0.5138291.3
4Marc Marquez01:32.443+0.5758286.7
5Michele Pirro01:32.467+0.5998292.0
6Andrea Dovizioso01:32.677+0.8098294.3
7Cal Crutchlow01:32.743+0.8758286.9
8Daniel Pedrosa01:32.859+0.9919290.8
9Aleix Espargaro01:32.918+1.0506285.4
10Pol Espargaro01:33.002+1.1347287.3
11Hector Barbera01:33.301+1.4334288.3
12Alvaro Bautista01:33.929+2.0618287.0
Warm Up · 11.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:33.068—10289.7
2Valentino Rossi01:33.138+0.07012291.4
3Michele Pirro01:33.318+0.25012293.5
4Andrea Dovizioso01:33.340+0.27210296.9
5Jorge Lorenzo01:33.369+0.30112291.4
6Pol Espargaro01:33.391+0.32312290.0
7Maverick Viñales01:33.426+0.35812291.1
8Aleix Espargaro01:33.549+0.48111287.5
9Cal Crutchlow01:33.631+0.56311287.0
10Hector Barbera01:33.692+0.62412292.8
11Scott Redding01:33.735+0.66710291.4
12Daniel Pedrosa01:33.771+0.70313291.2
13Alvaro Bautista01:34.119+1.05113289.6
14Danilo Petrucci01:34.199+1.13112289.7
15Stefan Bradl01:34.319+1.25113289.4
16Tito Rabat01:34.628+1.56013287.0
17Alex Lowes01:34.654+1.58612287.1
18Eugene Laverty01:34.863+1.79512289.3
19Yonny Hernandez01:34.973+1.90511287.6
20Xavi Fores01:35.545+2.47711285.2
RetiredJack Miller—00.0
Race · 11.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Daniel Pedrosa43:43.5242528
2Valentino Rossi+2.8372028
3Jorge Lorenzo+4.3591628
4Marc Marquez+9.5691328
5Maverick Viñales+15.4671128
6Andrea Dovizioso+19.6761028
7Michele Pirro+22.936928
8Cal Crutchlow+25.702828
9Pol Espargaro+27.155728
10Alvaro Bautista+33.968628
11Danilo Petrucci+39.206528
12Stefan Bradl+39.967428
13Hector Barbera+42.997328
14Eugene Laverty+49.450228
15Scott Redding+54.879128
16Yonny Hernandez+65.072028
17Tito Rabat+0.000023
RetiredAleix Espargaro017
RetiredAlex Lowes07
RetiredXavi Fores015

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceJack Miller17——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Lorenzo131%63%79%90%8%3
Valentino Rossi222%55%73%89%8%2
Maverick Viñales314%44%66%84%12%5
Marc Marquez411%37%59%81%14%4
Michele Pirro56%26%47%74%20%7
Andrea Dovizioso65%22%44%78%13%6
Cal Crutchlow73%14%29%61%29%8
Daniel Pedrosa83%13%31%76%9%1
Aleix Espargaro92%8%20%63%19%—
Pol Espargaro101%5%14%56%21%9
Hector Barbera111%4%12%54%14%13
Alvaro Bautista121%3%8%44%19%10
Stefan Bradl130%2%7%36%22%12
Alex Lowes140%2%5%30%16%—
Danilo Petrucci150%1%3%21%25%11
Eugene Laverty160%1%2%21%12%14
Scott Redding170%0%2%15%15%15
Tito Rabat180%0%1%12%13%17
Yonny Hernandez190%0%0%6%28%16
Xavi Fores200%0%0%5%19%—
Jack Miller210%0%0%3%34%—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · QuartararoS2 · AcostaS3 · BezzecchiS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
48%
Front row on the podium
0.73
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

256
Overtakes
6
Lead changes
5 leaders
9/28
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
7.288 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Loris Baz, from P16 to P4.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2023Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20267/2133%
20257/2330%
20243/2214%
20234/2317%
20224/2516%
20213/2413%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet