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Round 14 of 18 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2016

MotorLand Aragón Spain

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010
23.09 – 25.09.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team41:57.67825
2Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+2.74020
3Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+5.98316
4Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+8.23813
5Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+13.22111
6Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+17.07210
7Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+18.5229
8Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+19.4328
9Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+23.0717
10Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+27.8986
11Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+32.4485
12Michele PirroDucatiDucati Team+35.0334
13Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+36.2243
14Eugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+37.6212
15Nicky HaydenHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+40.5091
16Yonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+43.9060
17Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+56.7400
18Loris BazDucatiAvintia Racing+59.6810
19Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+94.1260
DNFTito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDSRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 26% ✓Marc Marquez · 26% · from P10.75 / 0.752.7 / 2.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

57
Overtakes
4
Lead changes
3 leaders
13/23
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
2.740 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Michele Pirro, from P17 to P12.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Daniel Pedrosa (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:02:18Scott ReddingCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:03:20Jump startJump start
Race14:11:28Danilo PetrucciRide throughRide through penalty
Race14:17:36Ride throughRide through
Race14:31:13Tito RabatCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
— °C
Air
max — °C
—
Humidity
Dry
Rain
— km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 23.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:48.830—17333.0
2Valentino Rossi01:49.016+0.18619332.4
3Maverick Viñales01:49.178+0.34816333.8
4Andrea Dovizioso01:49.178+0.34816338.4
5Jorge Lorenzo01:49.573+0.74316330.8
6Andrea Iannone01:49.601+0.77117342.3
7Danilo Petrucci01:49.719+0.88919333.5
8Aleix Espargaro01:49.731+0.90116328.2
9Pol Espargaro01:49.738+0.90819329.3
10Cal Crutchlow01:49.756+0.92617330.9
11Daniel Pedrosa01:49.993+1.16317334.5
12Scott Redding01:50.113+1.28318328.1
13Stefan Bradl01:50.368+1.53818328.7
14Hector Barbera01:50.714+1.88417333.7
15Tito Rabat01:50.816+1.98620327.9
16Eugene Laverty01:50.958+2.12815335.8
17Alex Lowes01:51.103+2.27319325.0
18Alvaro Bautista01:51.139+2.30918328.5
19Yonny Hernandez01:51.388+2.55815328.4
20Nicky Hayden01:51.873+3.04317327.7
21Loris Baz01:52.680+3.85015321.5
FP2 · 23.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:48.429—18333.4
2Marc Marquez01:48.494+0.06519332.7
3Cal Crutchlow01:48.510+0.08118329.2
4Valentino Rossi01:48.669+0.24020330.2
5Pol Espargaro01:48.749+0.32014328.4
6Maverick Viñales01:48.886+0.45719332.3
7Jorge Lorenzo01:48.914+0.48516328.1
8Hector Barbera01:48.970+0.54118332.2
9Danilo Petrucci01:49.065+0.63618331.8
10Andrea Dovizioso01:49.128+0.69918333.9
11Aleix Espargaro01:49.177+0.74815327.0
12Yonny Hernandez01:49.243+0.81418329.2
13Stefan Bradl01:49.298+0.86918326.7
14Alvaro Bautista01:49.301+0.87218328.2
15Michele Pirro01:49.678+1.24918333.6
16Scott Redding01:49.680+1.25116327.4
17Eugene Laverty01:50.113+1.68413335.4
18Tito Rabat01:50.649+2.22021328.5
19Loris Baz01:50.940+2.51116323.6
20Alex Lowes01:50.988+2.55916323.1
21Nicky Hayden01:50.992+2.56317327.3
FP3 · 24.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:47.810—18332.7
2Cal Crutchlow01:48.006+0.19617329.8
3Maverick Viñales01:48.052+0.24218331.7
4Jorge Lorenzo01:48.298+0.48816330.5
5Aleix Espargaro01:48.308+0.49818326.8
6Scott Redding01:48.627+0.81718329.5
7Andrea Dovizioso01:48.652+0.84216338.2
8Daniel Pedrosa01:48.817+1.00718334.6
9Valentino Rossi01:48.967+1.15712332.0
10Hector Barbera01:48.975+1.16518331.1
11Yonny Hernandez01:49.137+1.32715333.4
12Michele Pirro01:49.250+1.44018337.1
13Alvaro Bautista01:49.652+1.84216329.4
14Danilo Petrucci01:49.696+1.88616333.9
15Eugene Laverty01:49.738+1.92817334.8
16Stefan Bradl01:49.792+1.98216328.2
17Tito Rabat01:49.804+1.99421329.4
18Pol Espargaro01:49.909+2.0997328.2
19Nicky Hayden01:50.617+2.80715327.7
20Loris Baz01:50.617+2.80714324.6
RetiredAlex Lowes—00.0
FP4 · 24.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:48.060—13327.2
2Valentino Rossi01:48.806+0.74614328.2
3Aleix Espargaro01:48.853+0.79311322.7
4Daniel Pedrosa01:48.921+0.86114331.4
5Cal Crutchlow01:48.977+0.91714327.2
6Maverick Viñales01:49.138+1.07814328.1
7Andrea Dovizioso01:49.176+1.11612336.5
8Pol Espargaro01:49.361+1.30113325.7
9Jorge Lorenzo01:49.496+1.43614327.8
10Yonny Hernandez01:49.557+1.49712329.7
11Eugene Laverty01:49.651+1.59112330.6
12Stefan Bradl01:49.669+1.60914322.5
13Scott Redding01:49.677+1.61714330.8
14Danilo Petrucci01:49.752+1.69213327.6
15Hector Barbera01:49.847+1.78714327.2
16Michele Pirro01:49.847+1.78712331.4
17Tito Rabat01:49.961+1.90115325.5
18Alvaro Bautista01:50.059+1.99914326.6
19Nicky Hayden01:50.915+2.85513322.7
20Loris Baz01:51.133+3.0738319.5
RetiredAlex Lowes—00.0
Q1 · 24.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Danilo Petrucci01:48.596—7331.7
2Stefan Bradl01:48.622+0.0267322.2
3Hector Barbera01:48.699+0.1038327.3
4Alvaro Bautista01:48.904+0.3088327.4
5Yonny Hernandez01:48.954+0.3587328.0
6Eugene Laverty01:49.052+0.4568331.7
7Michele Pirro01:49.139+0.5436330.5
8Tito Rabat01:49.319+0.7237327.9
9Nicky Hayden01:49.490+0.8947327.5
10Loris Baz01:49.841+1.2457322.2
RetiredAlex Lowes—00.0
Q2 · 24.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:47.117—7329.3
2Maverick Viñales01:47.748+0.6317330.4
3Jorge Lorenzo01:47.778+0.6617329.0
4Andrea Dovizioso01:47.819+0.7027337.8
5Cal Crutchlow01:47.843+0.7267328.3
6Valentino Rossi01:47.951+0.8347329.3
7Daniel Pedrosa01:48.017+0.9007330.6
8Aleix Espargaro01:48.230+1.1137325.6
9Danilo Petrucci01:48.236+1.1196331.4
10Scott Redding01:48.242+1.1257333.4
11Pol Espargaro01:48.448+1.3316324.9
12Stefan Bradl01:49.083+1.9668321.8
Warm Up · 25.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:48.928—11335.8
2Aleix Espargaro01:49.004+0.07611333.1
3Pol Espargaro01:49.172+0.24411331.3
4Andrea Dovizioso01:49.239+0.31111339.7
5Cal Crutchlow01:49.241+0.31310332.4
6Maverick Viñales01:49.259+0.33111334.8
7Valentino Rossi01:49.332+0.40410334.7
8Jorge Lorenzo01:49.768+0.8406331.3
9Michele Pirro01:49.979+1.05110336.9
10Daniel Pedrosa01:50.048+1.12011336.2
11Danilo Petrucci01:50.072+1.14411335.2
12Scott Redding01:50.328+1.40011332.7
13Alvaro Bautista01:50.330+1.40211331.8
14Hector Barbera01:50.427+1.49911331.2
15Stefan Bradl01:50.491+1.56311327.9
16Yonny Hernandez01:50.498+1.57011333.6
17Eugene Laverty01:50.629+1.70111334.1
18Nicky Hayden01:50.850+1.92211329.5
19Loris Baz01:51.051+2.1239327.1
20Tito Rabat01:51.461+2.5339328.0
RetiredAlex Lowes—00.0
Race · 25.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Marc Marquez41:57.6782523
2Jorge Lorenzo+2.7402023
3Valentino Rossi+5.9831623
4Maverick Viñales+8.2381323
5Cal Crutchlow+13.2211123
6Daniel Pedrosa+17.0721023
7Aleix Espargaro+18.522923
8Pol Espargaro+19.432823
9Alvaro Bautista+23.071723
10Stefan Bradl+27.898623
11Andrea Dovizioso+32.448523
12Michele Pirro+35.033423
13Hector Barbera+36.224323
14Eugene Laverty+37.621223
15Nicky Hayden+40.509123
16Yonny Hernandez+43.906023
17Danilo Petrucci+56.740023
18Loris Baz+59.681023
19Scott Redding+94.126023
RetiredTito Rabat016

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceAlex Lowes21——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez126%58%74%84%14%1
Maverick Viñales221%53%72%86%11%4
Jorge Lorenzo316%47%70%89%8%2
Andrea Dovizioso412%36%60%83%13%11
Cal Crutchlow56%22%40%67%28%5
Valentino Rossi66%24%47%84%8%3
Daniel Pedrosa74%19%38%80%9%6
Aleix Espargaro82%12%27%67%20%7
Danilo Petrucci92%8%18%57%24%17
Scott Redding102%6%16%61%15%19
Pol Espargaro111%5%11%50%21%8
Stefan Bradl121%4%9%44%22%10
Hector Barbera131%2%6%39%14%13
Alvaro Bautista140%2%4%30%19%9
Yonny Hernandez150%1%3%23%28%16
Eugene Laverty160%1%3%21%11%14
Michele Pirro170%1%2%12%20%12
Tito Rabat180%0%1%11%12%—
Nicky Hayden190%0%1%7%14%15
Loris Baz200%0%0%5%22%18
Alex Lowes210%0%0%4%27%—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · M. MarquezS3 · M. MarquezS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
50%
Front row on the podium
0.78
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

41
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
23/23
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
2.683 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Valentino Rossi (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2020Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20264/2218%
20253/2114%
20245/2223%
20223/2313%
20212/229%
20201/215%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet