MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 15 of 18 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2016

Mobility Resort Motegi Japan

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999
14.10 – 16.10.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team42:34.61025
2Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+2.99220
3Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+4.10416
4Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+4.72613
5Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+15.04911
6Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+19.65410
7Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+23.0329
8Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+28.5558
9Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+28.8027
10Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+32.3306
11Katsuyuki NakasugaYamahaYamalube Yamaha Factory Racing+42.8455
12Yonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+52.2194
13Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+53.7833
14Tito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+54.7602
15Hiroshi AoyamaHondaRepsol Honda Team+60.1551
16Loris BazDucatiAvintia Racing+64.4400
17Hector BarberaDucatiDucati Team+102.9660
18Mike JonesDucatiAvintia Racing+0.0000
DNFEugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGPRetired0
DNFJack MillerHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDSRetired0
DNFJorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGPRetired0
DNFValentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGPRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Valentino Rossi · 32%Marc Marquez · 20% · from P20.84 / 0.842.1 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

12
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
21/24
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
2.992 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Katsuyuki Nakasuga, from P16 to P11.

Longest battle: Bradley Smith vs Yonny Hernandez (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:02:09Jump startJump start
Race14:05:50Eugene LavertyCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:12:09Jack MillerCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:13:02Valentino RossiCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:14:00Valentino RossiRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:15:41Hector BarberaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:35:42Jorge LorenzoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
21.1 °C
Air
max 21.4 °C
51%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
9 km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 14.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Dovizioso01:45.786—16308.5
2Marc Marquez01:46.031+0.24518305.1
3Jorge Lorenzo01:46.181+0.39518304.9
4Valentino Rossi01:46.222+0.43620303.2
5Daniel Pedrosa01:46.314+0.52819306.6
6Maverick Viñales01:46.349+0.56318307.4
7Aleix Espargaro01:46.406+0.62015303.9
8Cal Crutchlow01:46.590+0.80417304.4
9Alvaro Bautista01:46.721+0.93519303.3
10Hector Barbera01:46.853+1.06717308.1
11Pol Espargaro01:46.998+1.21216304.9
12Danilo Petrucci01:47.125+1.33919305.4
13Stefan Bradl01:47.426+1.64017299.5
14Scott Redding01:47.641+1.85518304.1
15Yonny Hernandez01:47.704+1.91817301.7
16Jack Miller01:47.777+1.99115300.6
17Eugene Laverty01:47.988+2.20216303.4
18Katsuyuki Nakasuga01:48.058+2.27217304.6
19Tito Rabat01:48.409+2.62323300.4
20Loris Baz01:48.914+3.12816295.3
21Bradley Smith01:51.415+5.62913301.2
—Mike Jones01:53.473+7.68718295.4
FP2 · 14.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:45.151—17304.4
2Andrea Dovizioso01:45.204+0.05316309.1
3Maverick Viñales01:45.248+0.09720307.6
4Marc Marquez01:45.303+0.15220305.6
5Cal Crutchlow01:45.501+0.35018306.3
6Aleix Espargaro01:45.513+0.36219304.0
7Valentino Rossi01:45.532+0.38121302.7
8Danilo Petrucci01:46.172+1.02117307.3
9Daniel Pedrosa01:46.227+1.07615307.5
10Pol Espargaro01:46.245+1.0949305.5
11Stefan Bradl01:46.367+1.21618304.3
12Alvaro Bautista01:46.834+1.68318303.9
13Eugene Laverty01:46.853+1.70214306.7
14Hector Barbera01:46.876+1.72516309.2
15Yonny Hernandez01:46.981+1.83014303.6
16Scott Redding01:47.032+1.88117303.9
17Katsuyuki Nakasuga01:47.135+1.98419305.2
18Jack Miller01:47.244+2.09313303.3
19Tito Rabat01:47.972+2.82122302.7
20Loris Baz01:48.669+3.51817296.2
21Bradley Smith01:48.897+3.74615303.1
22Mike Jones01:50.955+5.80421300.9
FP3 · 15.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:44.987—19303.9
2Cal Crutchlow01:45.026+0.03918305.3
3Andrea Dovizioso01:45.057+0.07017307.9
4Hector Barbera01:45.120+0.13318309.6
5Aleix Espargaro01:45.155+0.16819304.3
6Maverick Viñales01:45.284+0.29718305.2
7Valentino Rossi01:45.417+0.43019303.1
8Pol Espargaro01:45.680+0.69317304.8
9Jorge Lorenzo01:45.794+0.80715303.9
10Danilo Petrucci01:45.844+0.85718305.0
11Scott Redding01:45.854+0.86717306.2
12Stefan Bradl01:46.012+1.02518304.6
13Yonny Hernandez01:46.236+1.24919303.7
14Katsuyuki Nakasuga01:46.807+1.82015302.4
15Alvaro Bautista01:46.962+1.97517301.5
16Tito Rabat01:47.327+2.34022301.0
17Hiroshi Aoyama01:47.522+2.53519307.5
18Bradley Smith01:47.556+2.56917302.8
19Jack Miller01:48.184+3.19711299.7
20Loris Baz01:48.283+3.29616297.3
21Mike Jones01:49.071+4.08417302.5
RetiredEugene Laverty—00.0
FP4 · 15.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:45.304—13302.8
2Aleix Espargaro01:45.323+0.01915302.5
3Jorge Lorenzo01:45.337+0.03312302.4
4Andrea Dovizioso01:45.339+0.03512307.6
5Valentino Rossi01:45.490+0.18615304.3
6Maverick Viñales01:45.684+0.38014303.7
7Cal Crutchlow01:45.733+0.42914303.2
8Hector Barbera01:45.773+0.46915308.2
9Alvaro Bautista01:46.143+0.83914301.0
10Pol Espargaro01:46.403+1.09914306.2
11Danilo Petrucci01:46.437+1.13314301.6
12Scott Redding01:46.676+1.37213305.1
13Stefan Bradl01:46.714+1.41013301.0
14Jack Miller01:46.886+1.58210301.8
15Katsuyuki Nakasuga01:46.987+1.68314301.8
16Yonny Hernandez01:47.235+1.93113303.9
17Bradley Smith01:47.378+2.07412300.9
18Tito Rabat01:47.478+2.17415301.0
19Loris Baz01:48.247+2.94312294.7
20Hiroshi Aoyama01:48.637+3.3339302.7
21Eugene Laverty01:48.682+3.3785301.3
22Mike Jones01:48.683+3.37911303.5
Q1 · 15.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Alvaro Bautista01:45.614—8300.2
2Scott Redding01:45.708+0.0948303.2
3Stefan Bradl01:45.823+0.2096300.8
4Jack Miller01:46.347+0.7338300.5
5Bradley Smith01:46.593+0.9794302.5
6Katsuyuki Nakasuga01:46.627+1.0137299.7
7Yonny Hernandez01:46.705+1.0918302.4
8Tito Rabat01:46.753+1.1398301.1
9Eugene Laverty01:47.060+1.4468304.6
10Loris Baz01:47.501+1.8876295.8
11Mike Jones01:47.631+2.0178301.5
12Hiroshi Aoyama01:47.788+2.1748306.9
Q2 · 15.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Valentino Rossi01:43.954—8305.1
2Marc Marquez01:44.134+0.1808307.5
3Jorge Lorenzo01:44.221+0.2677303.3
4Andrea Dovizioso01:44.294+0.3408308.3
5Cal Crutchlow01:44.402+0.4487305.6
6Aleix Espargaro01:44.494+0.5408304.3
7Maverick Viñales01:44.539+0.5858306.7
8Hector Barbera01:44.980+1.0267309.9
9Pol Espargaro01:45.232+1.2788303.7
10Danilo Petrucci01:45.782+1.8287304.0
11Scott Redding01:45.827+1.8736306.1
RetiredAlvaro Bautista—00.0
Warm Up · 16.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:45.451—11304.0
2Andrea Dovizioso01:45.585+0.13410307.2
3Maverick Viñales01:45.627+0.17611306.9
4Aleix Espargaro01:45.796+0.34510303.0
5Valentino Rossi01:45.875+0.42411304.9
6Jorge Lorenzo01:46.035+0.58410305.1
7Cal Crutchlow01:46.112+0.66110303.6
8Hector Barbera01:46.164+0.71311308.4
9Scott Redding01:46.478+1.02711305.1
10Pol Espargaro01:46.500+1.04910304.3
11Danilo Petrucci01:46.624+1.1738304.9
12Jack Miller01:46.899+1.44811301.9
13Stefan Bradl01:46.967+1.51611304.1
14Yonny Hernandez01:47.101+1.65012298.9
15Alvaro Bautista01:47.184+1.73311300.2
16Eugene Laverty01:47.460+2.00910304.6
17Bradley Smith01:47.463+2.01211304.1
18Hiroshi Aoyama01:47.550+2.09910308.6
19Tito Rabat01:47.748+2.29711301.3
20Katsuyuki Nakasuga01:48.048+2.59711300.6
21Loris Baz01:49.231+3.7808294.2
22Mike Jones01:49.243+3.79210301.0
Race · 16.10
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Marc Marquez42:34.6102524
2Andrea Dovizioso+2.9922024
3Maverick Viñales+4.1041624
4Aleix Espargaro+4.7261324
5Cal Crutchlow+15.0491124
6Pol Espargaro+19.6541024
7Alvaro Bautista+23.032924
8Danilo Petrucci+28.555824
9Scott Redding+28.802724
10Stefan Bradl+32.330624
11Katsuyuki Nakasuga+42.845524
12Yonny Hernandez+52.219424
13Bradley Smith+53.783324
14Tito Rabat+54.760224
15Hiroshi Aoyama+60.155124
16Loris Baz+64.440024
17Hector Barbera+102.966024
18Mike Jones+0.000023
RetiredEugene Laverty02
RetiredJack Miller06
RetiredJorge Lorenzo019
RetiredValentino Rossi06

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Valentino Rossi132%63%78%89%8%—
Marc Marquez220%54%71%84%14%1
Jorge Lorenzo315%48%69%89%7%—
Andrea Dovizioso412%37%60%83%13%2
Cal Crutchlow55%23%41%66%28%5
Aleix Espargaro65%21%42%74%20%4
Maverick Viñales74%18%38%78%11%3
Hector Barbera82%11%28%72%14%17
Pol Espargaro92%7%19%61%20%6
Danilo Petrucci101%5%14%53%24%8
Scott Redding111%4%12%54%15%9
Alvaro Bautista121%3%9%45%19%7
Stefan Bradl130%2%5%35%22%10
Jack Miller140%1%3%25%34%—
Bradley Smith150%1%4%28%13%13
Katsuyuki Nakasuga160%1%2%22%9%11
Yonny Hernandez170%1%1%13%27%12
Tito Rabat180%0%1%10%17%14
Eugene Laverty190%0%1%8%11%—
Loris Baz200%0%1%6%22%16
Mike Jones210%0%0%4%19%18
Hiroshi Aoyama220%0%0%3%10%15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · AcostaS2 · BagnaiaS3 · MartinS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
50%
Front row on the podium
0.77
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

82
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
7/24
Laps led by the winner
Daniel Pedrosa
8.573 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hector Barbera, from P18 to P9.

Longest battle: Scott Redding vs Takumi Takahashi (9 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2022Jack MillerDucati
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
  • 2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20253/2114%
20246/2326%
20232/2110%
20225/2520%
20192/229%
20184/2516%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet