MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 5 of 18 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2013

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976
31.05 – 02.06.2013
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge LorenzoYamahaYamaha Factory Racing41:39.73325
2Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+5.40020
3Cal CrutchlowYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+6.41216
4Stefan BradlHondaLCR Honda MotoGP+19.32113
5Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+19.54011
6Nicky HaydenDucatiDucati Team+26.32110
7Michele PirroDucatiDucati Test Team+38.1449
8Aleix EspargaroARTPower Electronics Aspar+39.8028
9Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+40.2437
10Hector BarberaFTRAvintia Blusens+48.3926
11Randy De PunietARTPower Electronics Aspar+48.4805
12Danilo PetrucciIoda-SuterCame IodaRacing Project+73.7084
13Andrea IannoneDucatiEnergy T.I. Pramac Racing+74.6013
14Colin EdwardsFTR KawasakiNGM Mobile Forward Racing+81.2492
15Karel AbrahamARTCardion AB Motoracing+85.7381
16Yonny HernandezARTPaul Bird Motorsport+87.3390
17Michael LavertyPBMPaul Bird Motorsport+87.7580
18Bryan StaringFTR HondaGO&FUN Honda Gresini+104.4240
19Lukas PesekIoda-SuterCame IodaRacing Project+105.2270
DNFAlvaro BautistaHondaGO&FUN Honda GresiniRetired0
DNFClaudio CortiFTR KawasakiNGM Mobile Forward RacingRetired0
DNFHiroshi AoyamaFTRAvintia BlusensRetired0
DNFMarc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFValentino RossiYamahaYamaha Factory RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

28
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
23/23
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
5.400 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hector Barbera, from P15 to P10.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Randy De Puniet (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
23.6 °C
Air
max 23.9 °C
56%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
8 km/h
Wind
gusts 32 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 31.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:54.797—12326.5
2Michele Pirro01:55.195+0.39813330.8
3Stefan Bradl01:55.288+0.49117327.9
4Karel Abraham01:55.874+1.07712312.5
5Yonny Hernandez01:55.907+1.11013315.6
6Bradley Smith01:55.981+1.18415321.7
7Nicky Hayden01:55.991+1.19417334.8
8Daniel Pedrosa01:56.534+1.73713328.1
9Cal Crutchlow01:56.984+2.18715323.2
10Ben Spies01:57.045+2.24813330.3
11Alvaro Bautista01:57.910+3.11317327.1
12Aleix Espargaro01:58.076+3.27915321.3
13Andrea Iannone01:58.478+3.68116328.5
14Jorge Lorenzo02:00.174+5.37710329.9
15Andrea Dovizioso02:00.457+5.66014336.4
16Hiroshi Aoyama02:00.801+6.0049309.9
17Colin Edwards02:01.082+6.28512304.7
18Randy De Puniet02:01.108+6.3119311.0
19Valentino Rossi02:01.455+6.65813326.4
20Hector Barbera02:02.673+7.87614309.0
—Bryan Staring02:04.511+9.71417295.7
—Claudio Corti02:06.323+11.5266311.7
—Danilo Petrucci02:05.741+10.9444307.3
—Lukas Pesek02:04.160+9.36311300.8
—Michael Laverty02:05.759+10.96212302.4
FP2 · 31.05
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:48.375—17341.6
2Valentino Rossi01:48.409+0.03420339.4
3Cal Crutchlow01:48.672+0.29718337.8
4Nicky Hayden01:49.377+1.00219338.4
5Daniel Pedrosa01:49.383+1.00818340.0
6Andrea Iannone01:49.467+1.09219340.6
7Andrea Dovizioso01:49.543+1.16815338.8
8Stefan Bradl01:49.595+1.22020338.9
9Randy De Puniet01:49.599+1.22419322.4
10Michele Pirro01:49.649+1.27417340.1
11Alvaro Bautista01:49.733+1.35817338.8
12Aleix Espargaro01:49.769+1.39414326.3
13Bradley Smith01:50.103+1.72812335.2
14Marc Marquez01:50.210+1.8359342.0
15Hector Barbera01:50.400+2.02517320.6
16Ben Spies01:51.105+2.73014340.9
17Colin Edwards01:51.433+3.05819323.5
18Karel Abraham01:51.528+3.15316325.8
19Yonny Hernandez01:51.644+3.26916322.9
20Danilo Petrucci01:51.937+3.56219322.0
21Hiroshi Aoyama01:52.182+3.80717320.9
22Claudio Corti01:53.314+4.93915326.3
23Michael Laverty01:53.480+5.10516321.8
24Bryan Staring01:54.231+5.85618324.4
25Lukas Pesek01:54.829+6.45416312.0
FP3 · 01.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:47.972—18338.6
2Daniel Pedrosa01:48.222+0.25019342.9
3Stefan Bradl01:48.489+0.51720338.9
4Valentino Rossi01:48.580+0.60821337.9
5Alvaro Bautista01:48.703+0.73119340.1
6Cal Crutchlow01:48.749+0.77719338.6
7Andrea Dovizioso01:48.779+0.80716341.4
8Nicky Hayden01:48.798+0.82620341.2
9Michele Pirro01:49.034+1.06215341.7
10Aleix Espargaro01:49.039+1.06718326.1
11Andrea Iannone01:49.135+1.16318340.9
12Marc Marquez01:49.218+1.24617342.6
13Bradley Smith01:49.257+1.28517335.5
14Hector Barbera01:49.551+1.57916322.7
15Randy De Puniet01:49.673+1.70115322.0
16Colin Edwards01:51.101+3.12916322.7
17Danilo Petrucci01:51.251+3.27920322.8
18Yonny Hernandez01:51.560+3.58816321.8
19Karel Abraham01:51.619+3.64716327.3
20Claudio Corti01:52.189+4.21716328.3
21Lukas Pesek01:52.226+4.25418314.5
22Michael Laverty01:52.290+4.31818321.5
23Hiroshi Aoyama01:52.295+4.3238324.0
24Bryan Staring01:53.165+5.19315323.3
RetiredBen Spies—00.0
FP4 · 01.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:48.028—13342.0
2Jorge Lorenzo01:48.123+0.09512339.6
3Stefan Bradl01:48.341+0.31313341.2
4Valentino Rossi01:48.407+0.37916338.3
5Cal Crutchlow01:48.811+0.78314337.1
6Andrea Dovizioso01:48.876+0.84814339.4
7Marc Marquez01:48.952+0.92413340.2
8Alvaro Bautista01:49.120+1.09213339.3
9Nicky Hayden01:49.168+1.14014340.9
10Michele Pirro01:49.374+1.34613337.8
11Bradley Smith01:49.546+1.5189334.7
12Aleix Espargaro01:49.715+1.68713327.7
13Andrea Iannone01:49.816+1.78814341.8
14Randy De Puniet01:49.984+1.95612322.5
15Hector Barbera01:50.393+2.3658323.8
16Claudio Corti01:50.829+2.80112325.6
17Hiroshi Aoyama01:51.216+3.1889324.2
18Karel Abraham01:51.228+3.20012322.4
19Yonny Hernandez01:51.300+3.2729319.3
20Colin Edwards01:51.510+3.48213321.3
21Danilo Petrucci01:51.521+3.49313325.3
22Michael Laverty01:51.672+3.64411322.0
23Bryan Staring01:52.387+4.35912323.1
24Lukas Pesek01:52.474+4.4467316.5
RetiredBen Spies—00.0
Q1 · 01.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:48.524—5336.8
2Bradley Smith01:48.860+0.3366332.6
3Andrea Iannone01:49.265+0.7418339.9
4Randy De Puniet01:49.266+0.7428316.9
5Hector Barbera01:49.847+1.3238322.1
6Danilo Petrucci01:50.518+1.9947313.0
7Colin Edwards01:50.701+2.1778321.7
8Claudio Corti01:50.729+2.2056321.7
9Michael Laverty01:50.787+2.2638320.7
10Karel Abraham01:51.089+2.5658322.6
11Yonny Hernandez01:51.239+2.7158316.9
12Bryan Staring01:51.981+3.4578319.3
13Hiroshi Aoyama01:52.148+3.6247317.0
14Lukas Pesek01:52.345+3.8216312.5
RetiredBen Spies—00.0
Q2 · 01.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:47.157—8340.5
2Jorge Lorenzo01:47.226+0.0698338.7
3Andrea Dovizioso01:47.628+0.4718341.0
4Cal Crutchlow01:47.632+0.4757340.0
5Stefan Bradl01:47.737+0.5808340.8
6Marc Marquez01:47.763+0.6068338.4
7Valentino Rossi01:47.872+0.7159340.6
8Nicky Hayden01:48.006+0.8499339.8
9Alvaro Bautista01:48.355+1.1988342.9
10Michele Pirro01:48.564+1.4078341.8
11Bradley Smith01:48.706+1.5495333.9
12Aleix Espargaro01:48.765+1.6088330.5
Warm Up · 02.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:47.558—11338.9
2Cal Crutchlow01:47.773+0.21511337.9
3Marc Marquez01:48.208+0.65010340.4
4Valentino Rossi01:48.400+0.84211335.6
5Daniel Pedrosa01:48.475+0.91711340.3
6Andrea Iannone01:48.652+1.09411344.6
7Nicky Hayden01:48.768+1.21011339.7
8Alvaro Bautista01:48.952+1.39411339.9
9Stefan Bradl01:48.965+1.40711338.3
10Randy De Puniet01:49.323+1.7659320.2
11Andrea Dovizioso01:49.394+1.83610337.9
12Hector Barbera01:49.406+1.84810323.7
13Michele Pirro01:49.412+1.85411340.8
14Aleix Espargaro01:49.671+2.11310327.7
15Claudio Corti01:50.958+3.40010326.1
16Danilo Petrucci01:50.990+3.43210325.6
17Yonny Hernandez01:51.016+3.45811319.3
18Karel Abraham01:51.098+3.5409326.7
19Colin Edwards01:51.248+3.69010319.0
20Lukas Pesek01:51.725+4.16710316.9
21Hiroshi Aoyama01:51.899+4.3417324.3
22Michael Laverty01:52.201+4.6439317.8
23Bryan Staring01:52.812+5.25411317.0
RetiredBen Spies—00.0
RetiredBradley Smith—00.0
Race · 02.06
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Jorge Lorenzo41:39.7332523
2Daniel Pedrosa+5.4002023
3Cal Crutchlow+6.4121623
4Stefan Bradl+19.3211323
5Andrea Dovizioso+19.5401123
6Nicky Hayden+26.3211023
7Michele Pirro+38.144923
8Aleix Espargaro+39.802823
9Bradley Smith+40.243723
10Hector Barbera+48.392623
11Randy De Puniet+48.480523
12Danilo Petrucci+73.708423
13Andrea Iannone+74.601323
14Colin Edwards+81.249223
15Karel Abraham+85.738123
16Yonny Hernandez+87.339023
17Michael Laverty+87.758023
18Bryan Staring+104.424023
19Lukas Pesek+105.227023
RetiredAlvaro Bautista00
RetiredClaudio Corti017
RetiredHiroshi Aoyama016
RetiredMarc Marquez020
RetiredValentino Rossi00

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceBen Spies25——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BagnaiaS2 · ViñalesS3 · QuartararoS4 · Martin

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,245 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
46%
Front row on the podium
0.80
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2012 edition

36
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
23/23
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
5.223 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P10 to P5.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Valentino Rossi (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
  • 2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2214%
20254/2218%
20243/2413%
20233/2214%
20224/2615%
20215/2223%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet