Round 14 of 18 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2012

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010

28.09 – 30.09.2012

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	42:10.444	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+6.472	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+11.047	16
4	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+11.184	13
5	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+13.786	11
6	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+28.166	10
7	Jonathan Rea	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+32.290	9
8	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+44.432	8
9	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	+57.417	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+58.525	6
11	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+59.863	5
12	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+74.561	4
13	Yonny Hernandez	BQR	Avintia Blusens	+76.159	3
14	James Ellison	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	+76.580	2
15	Michele Pirro	FTR	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+85.815	1
16	Mattia Pasini	ART	Speed Master	+91.801	0
17	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+102.300	0
18	Colin Edwards	Suter	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+0.000	0
DNF	David Salom	BQR	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0
DNF	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

17/23

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

6.472 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P12 to P6.

Longest battle: Colin Edwards vs James Ellison (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Karel Abraham	14	10	+4
James Ellison	20	17	+3
Alvaro Bautista	12	9	+3
Valentino Rossi	8	21	−13
Hector Barbera	10	11	−1
Danilo Petrucci	18	19	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alvaro Bautista	12→6	+3.9
Andrea Dovizioso	6→3	+3.0
Daniel Pedrosa	2→1	+2.5
Hector Barbera	10→12	−3.4
Mattia Pasini	16→16	−3.5
Colin Edwards	17→18	−4.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

16.9 °C

Air

max 17.1 °C

57%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 33 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 28.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Nicky Hayden	02:04.890	—	6	318.0
2	Valentino Rossi	02:05.750	+0.860	7	319.2
3	Aleix Espargaro	02:07.378	+2.488	8	299.2
4	Danilo Petrucci	02:08.706	+3.816	5	302.3
5	Hector Barbera	02:08.873	+3.983	15	323.0
6	David Salom	02:09.236	+4.346	12	296.1
7	Colin Edwards	02:09.348	+4.458	7	301.6
8	Yonny Hernandez	02:10.321	+5.431	4	289.3
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		—	0	0.0
Retired	Andrea Dovizioso		—	0	0.0
Retired	Ben Spies		—	0	0.0
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		—	0	0.0
Retired	Daniel Pedrosa		—	0	0.0
Retired	James Ellison		—	0	0.0
Retired	Jonathan Rea		—	0	0.0
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0
—	Karel Abraham	02:15.152	+10.262	3	297.4
Retired	Mattia Pasini		—	0	0.0
Retired	Michele Pirro		—	0	0.0
Retired	Randy De Puniet		—	0	0.0
Retired	Stefan Bradl		—	0	0.0

FP2 · 28.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Ben Spies	02:00.219	—	17	324.6
2	Daniel Pedrosa	02:00.285	+0.066	16	330.5
3	Jorge Lorenzo	02:00.746	+0.527	15	323.2
4	Nicky Hayden	02:00.996	+0.777	16	322.4
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.379	+1.160	17	325.3
6	Stefan Bradl	02:01.626	+1.407	14	325.2
7	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.665	+1.446	15	324.0
8	Valentino Rossi	02:02.412	+2.193	15	323.8
9	Karel Abraham	02:02.632	+2.413	19	324.2
10	Alvaro Bautista	02:03.263	+3.044	18	322.8
11	Jonathan Rea	02:04.046	+3.827	15	321.5
12	Randy De Puniet	02:04.353	+4.134	15	303.7
13	Aleix Espargaro	02:04.423	+4.204	15	302.4
14	James Ellison	02:04.542	+4.323	14	307.3
15	Mattia Pasini	02:04.722	+4.503	14	301.3
16	Yonny Hernandez	02:04.858	+4.639	16	299.8
17	Michele Pirro	02:06.030	+5.811	16	302.8
18	Hector Barbera	02:06.182	+5.963	11	324.3
19	Danilo Petrucci	02:06.368	+6.149	16	304.0
20	David Salom	02:06.593	+6.374	14	300.7
21	Colin Edwards	02:06.677	+6.458	13	306.7

FP3 · 29.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Daniel Pedrosa	02:00.490	—	17	329.2
2	Jorge Lorenzo	02:00.624	+0.134	15	324.3
3	Ben Spies	02:00.712	+0.222	17	324.6
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.727	+0.237	16	327.4
5	Stefan Bradl	02:00.823	+0.333	16	328.8
6	Cal Crutchlow	02:00.824	+0.334	12	325.4
7	Karel Abraham	02:01.419	+0.929	13	326.9
8	Valentino Rossi	02:01.713	+1.223	18	325.9
9	Jonathan Rea	02:01.947	+1.457	18	323.2
10	Nicky Hayden	02:02.123	+1.633	16	325.9
11	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.607	+2.117	17	325.1
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:03.336	+2.846	17	306.3
13	Yonny Hernandez	02:03.622	+3.132	14	302.7
14	James Ellison	02:03.720	+3.230	14	307.6
15	Mattia Pasini	02:04.020	+3.530	15	304.7
16	Colin Edwards	02:04.162	+3.672	14	309.8
17	Danilo Petrucci	02:04.555	+4.065	14	308.8
18	Randy De Puniet	02:04.612	+4.122	12	308.6
19	Hector Barbera	02:04.647	+4.157	16	330.3
20	Michele Pirro	02:05.016	+4.526	17	307.1
21	David Salom	02:05.898	+5.408	14	302.5

Qualifying · 29.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:49.404	—	22	334.4
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:49.492	+0.088	22	338.4
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.576	+0.172	23	333.4
4	Ben Spies	01:49.748	+0.344	24	332.1
5	Stefan Bradl	01:50.034	+0.630	25	336.2
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:50.241	+0.837	25	333.7
7	Jonathan Rea	01:50.410	+1.006	24	333.8
8	Valentino Rossi	01:50.949	+1.545	23	336.1
9	Nicky Hayden	01:51.013	+1.609	21	331.9
10	Hector Barbera	01:51.072	+1.668	22	335.7
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:51.082	+1.678	23	315.3
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:51.155	+1.751	23	332.2
13	Randy De Puniet	01:51.459	+2.055	26	317.3
14	Karel Abraham	01:51.521	+2.117	27	332.2
15	Michele Pirro	01:52.606	+3.202	22	317.8
16	Mattia Pasini	01:52.638	+3.234	22	314.0
17	Colin Edwards	01:52.853	+3.449	22	314.2
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:53.140	+3.736	20	314.5
19	Yonny Hernandez	01:53.233	+3.829	20	309.9
20	James Ellison	01:53.719	+4.315	21	314.9
21	David Salom	01:55.290	+5.886	20	308.5

Warm Up · 30.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:49.838	—	11	335.2
2	Ben Spies	01:49.856	+0.018	11	335.3
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:50.089	+0.251	10	337.5
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:50.252	+0.414	11	335.2
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:50.564	+0.726	10	333.5
6	Stefan Bradl	01:50.631	+0.793	11	340.8
7	Nicky Hayden	01:51.125	+1.287	10	336.2
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:51.166	+1.328	11	338.9
9	Valentino Rossi	01:51.226	+1.388	11	335.8
10	Randy De Puniet	01:51.611	+1.773	11	320.7
11	Hector Barbera	01:51.946	+2.108	9	338.7
12	Jonathan Rea	01:52.024	+2.186	10	333.1
13	Karel Abraham	01:52.259	+2.421	10	333.7
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:52.267	+2.429	10	315.1
15	Mattia Pasini	01:52.802	+2.964	10	314.2
16	Colin Edwards	01:53.102	+3.264	10	316.8
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:53.445	+3.607	10	312.7
18	James Ellison	01:53.470	+3.632	7	316.5
19	Michele Pirro	01:54.535	+4.697	8	311.9
20	David Salom	01:54.814	+4.976	10	313.0
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.500	+6.662	4	312.6

Race · 30.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Daniel Pedrosa	42:10.444	25	23
2	Jorge Lorenzo	+6.472	20	23
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+11.047	16	23
4	Cal Crutchlow	+11.184	13	23
5	Ben Spies	+13.786	11	23
6	Alvaro Bautista	+28.166	10	23
7	Jonathan Rea	+32.290	9	23
8	Valentino Rossi	+44.432	8	23
9	Karel Abraham	+57.417	7	23
10	Aleix Espargaro	+58.525	6	23
11	Randy De Puniet	+59.863	5	23
12	Hector Barbera	+74.561	4	23
13	Yonny Hernandez	+76.159	3	23
14	James Ellison	+76.580	2	23
15	Michele Pirro	+85.815	1	23
16	Mattia Pasini	+91.801	0	23
17	Danilo Petrucci	+102.300	0	23
18	Colin Edwards	+0.000	0	22
Retired	David Salom		0	3
Retired	Nicky Hayden		0	1
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	4

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.40%	Jorge Martin +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.54%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.54%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%	Enea Bastianini +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.40%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.12%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.15%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.49%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Brad Binder +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.33%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pedro Acosta +0.28%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.43%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.39%
S3	Enea Bastianini	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Miguel Oliveira +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Joan Mir +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%	Joan Mir +0.40%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.16%	Alex Marquez +0.25%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.35%	Jack Miller +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jack Miller +0.77%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.64%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.27%	Danilo Petrucci +0.44%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.51%	Cal Crutchlow +0.58%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.08%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.38%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	270	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	232	−38
3	Casey Stoner	186	−84
4	Andrea Dovizioso	163	−107
5	Cal Crutchlow	122	−148
6	Valentino Rossi	120	−150

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2011 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

8.162 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P17 to P10.

Longest battle: Hiroshi Aoyama vs Valentino Rossi (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	5/22	23%
2022	3/23	13%
2021	2/22	9%
2020	1/21	5%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet