Round 15 of 18 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2012

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

12.10 – 14.10.2012

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	42:31.569	25
2	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+4.275	20
3	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+6.752	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+16.397	13
5	Casey Stoner	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+20.566	11
6	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+24.567	10
7	Valentino Rossi	Ducati	Ducati Team	+26.072	9
8	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+36.724	8
9	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	Yamaha	Yamaha YSP Racing Team	+36.794	7
10	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Pramac Racing Team	+70.729	6
11	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Cardion AB Motoracing	+75.658	5
12	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+82.769	4
13	Colin Edwards	Suter	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+84.968	3
14	James Ellison	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	+89.388	2
15	Michele Pirro	FTR	San Carlo Honda Gresini	+94.612	1
16	Roberto Rolfo	ART	Speed Master	+110.853	0
DNF	Ben Spies	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	Retired	0
DNF	Ivan Silva	BQR	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0
DNF	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	BQR	Avintia Blusens	Retired	0

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/24

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

4.275 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Stefan Bradl, from P8 to P6.

Longest battle: Katsuyuki Nakasuga vs Nicky Hayden (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Roberto Rolfo	21	18	+3
Karel Abraham	15	13	+2
Casey Stoner	7	5	+2
Randy De Puniet	14	22	−8
Nicky Hayden	10	11	−1
Andrea Dovizioso	6	7	−1

Race weather

C25

20.1 °C

Air

max 20.2 °C

60%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

3 km/h

Wind

gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

The layout

Finish line · 4,812 m per lap

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	290	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	257	−33
3	Casey Stoner	186	−104
4	Andrea Dovizioso	179	−111
5	Cal Crutchlow	135	−155
6	Valentino Rossi	128	−162

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2011 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

19/24

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

7.299 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Colin Edwards, from P14 to P8.

Longest battle: Damian Cudlin vs Kousuke Akiyoshi (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%