MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 4 of 18 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2010

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976
04.06 – 06.06.2010
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team42:28.06625
2Jorge LorenzoYamahaFiat Yamaha Team+4.01420
3Andrea DoviziosoHondaRepsol Honda Team+6.19616
4Casey StonerDucatiDucati Team+25.70313
5Marco MelandriHondaSan Carlo Honda Gresini+25.73511
6Randy De PunietHondaLCR Honda MotoGP+25.96510
7Ben SpiesYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+28.8069
8Aleix EspargaroDucatiPramac Racing Team+40.1728
9Marco SimoncelliHondaSan Carlo Honda Gresini+41.3947
10Loris CapirossiSuzukiRizla Suzuki MotoGP+42.1076
11Hiroshi AoyamaHondaInterwetten Honda MotoGP+43.0955
12Hector BarberaDucatiPaginas Amarillas Aspar+43.3634
13Colin EdwardsYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+74.3933
14Alvaro BautistaSuzukiRizla Suzuki MotoGP+84.3892
DNFMika KallioDucatiPramac Racing TeamRetired0
DNFNicky HaydenDucatiDucati TeamRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

35
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
23/23
Laps led by the winner
Daniel Pedrosa
4.014 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marco Melandri, from P14 to P5.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Marco Simoncelli (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Pending · no data yet

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
26.4 °C
Air
max 26.5 °C
55%
Humidity
0.1 mm
Rain
8 km/h
Wind
gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Valentino Rossi01:49.751—26322.4
2Jorge Lorenzo01:50.120+0.36927322.4
3Loris Capirossi01:50.359+0.60822322.8
4Colin Edwards01:50.772+1.02121330.2
5Daniel Pedrosa01:50.773+1.02223322.8
6Ben Spies01:51.004+1.25325322.3
7Casey Stoner01:51.128+1.37715332.0
8Andrea Dovizioso01:51.255+1.50426325.8
9Nicky Hayden01:51.387+1.63625336.7
10Hector Barbera01:51.582+1.83117339.6
11Randy De Puniet01:51.605+1.85425320.5
12Marco Simoncelli01:51.717+1.96621320.4
13Marco Melandri01:51.782+2.03123324.2
14Aleix Espargaro01:52.202+2.45124334.5
15Hiroshi Aoyama01:52.399+2.64826322.6
16Mika Kallio01:52.418+2.66724335.1
17Alvaro Bautista01:55.257+5.50621319.2
FP2 · 05.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:49.282—26333.4
2Andrea Dovizioso01:49.620+0.33825327.6
3Daniel Pedrosa01:49.701+0.41925338.3
4Valentino Rossi01:49.923+0.64115321.3
5Randy De Puniet01:50.214+0.93226319.3
6Casey Stoner01:50.233+0.95117336.7
7Colin Edwards01:50.357+1.07525332.9
8Ben Spies01:50.392+1.11027333.2
9Nicky Hayden01:50.426+1.14423337.5
10Loris Capirossi01:50.495+1.21324322.5
11Hector Barbera01:50.562+1.28023340.6
12Aleix Espargaro01:50.764+1.48224335.4
13Marco Melandri01:50.922+1.64025323.5
14Hiroshi Aoyama01:51.160+1.87824322.0
15Marco Simoncelli01:51.318+2.03623321.8
16Mika Kallio01:51.393+2.11123340.2
17Alvaro Bautista01:53.837+4.55520319.3
Qualifying · 05.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:48.819—24329.3
2Jorge Lorenzo01:48.996+0.17726324.8
3Casey Stoner01:49.432+0.61322339.3
4Nicky Hayden01:49.546+0.72727336.4
5Colin Edwards01:49.683+0.86425323.9
6Randy De Puniet01:49.737+0.91826323.9
7Ben Spies01:49.861+1.04225320.4
8Andrea Dovizioso01:50.065+1.24628327.3
9Aleix Espargaro01:50.168+1.34925335.2
10Hiroshi Aoyama01:50.224+1.40525330.4
11Marco Simoncelli01:50.434+1.61523327.1
12Loris Capirossi01:50.479+1.66025322.8
13Hector Barbera01:50.561+1.74226341.2
14Marco Melandri01:50.664+1.84526328.9
15Mika Kallio01:50.970+2.15125338.5
16Alvaro Bautista01:53.243+4.42425324.7
RetiredValentino Rossi—00.0
Warm Up · 06.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:49.750—10326.7
2Jorge Lorenzo01:50.056+0.30611337.1
3Casey Stoner01:50.126+0.37610337.4
4Andrea Dovizioso01:50.273+0.52310322.7
5Loris Capirossi01:50.312+0.56211324.5
6Colin Edwards01:50.348+0.59811330.6
7Randy De Puniet01:50.380+0.63010333.1
8Ben Spies01:50.453+0.70310324.3
9Nicky Hayden01:50.461+0.71111341.6
10Hiroshi Aoyama01:50.585+0.83511323.1
11Aleix Espargaro01:50.700+0.95011337.8
12Marco Melandri01:50.734+0.98411326.1
13Marco Simoncelli01:50.985+1.23510324.1
14Mika Kallio01:52.197+2.44710332.9
15Alvaro Bautista01:52.469+2.71910319.9
16Hector Barbera01:52.549+2.79911345.7
Race · 06.06
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Daniel Pedrosa42:28.0662523
2Jorge Lorenzo+4.0142023
3Andrea Dovizioso+6.1961623
4Casey Stoner+25.7031323
5Marco Melandri+25.7351123
6Randy De Puniet+25.9651023
7Ben Spies+28.806923
8Aleix Espargaro+40.172823
9Marco Simoncelli+41.394723
10Loris Capirossi+42.107623
11Hiroshi Aoyama+43.095523
12Hector Barbera+43.363423
13Colin Edwards+74.393323
14Alvaro Bautista+84.389223
RetiredMika Kallio08
RetiredNicky Hayden05

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21
Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceValentino Rossi17——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BagnaiaS2 · ViñalesS3 · QuartararoS4 · Martin

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,245 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
46%
Front row on the podium
0.80
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
  • 2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20263/2214%
20254/2218%
20243/2413%
20233/2214%
20224/2615%
20215/2223%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet