Round 13 of 22 Aftermath

Austrian Grand Prix 2025

4.348 m · 28 laps · since 1996

15.08 – 17.08.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	42:11.006	25
2	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.118	20
3	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+3.426	16
4	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.864	13
5	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+8.731	11
6	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+10.132	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.476	9
8	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+12.486	8
9	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+15.472	7
10	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+15.537	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+16.185	5
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+16.241	4
13	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+18.478	3
14	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+18.491	2
15	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+25.256	1
16	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+30.316	0
17	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+34.008	0
18	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+37.478	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	20:56.071	12
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.180	9
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+3.126	7
4	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+4.032	6
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.782	5
6	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.032	4
7	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+8.294	3
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.953	2
9	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+11.999	1
10	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.111	0
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+13.387	0
12	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+13.704	0
13	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+13.822	0
14	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+14.564	0
15	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+18.414	0
16	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+19.365	0
17	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+20.844	0
18	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+21.581	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marco Bezzecchi · 31%	Marc Marquez · 10% · from P4	0.82 / 0.82	2.5 / 2.5
Race (after the grid)	Marco Bezzecchi · 29%	Marc Marquez · 12% · from P4	0.81 / 0.81	2.6 / 2.7
Race (after the sprint)	Alex Marquez · 28%	Marc Marquez · 25% · from P4	0.84 / 0.81	2.3 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fermin Aldeguer	1:30.211	—	+0.884	Medium	26
Pedro Acosta	1:30.336	+0.125	+0.448	Medium	25
Marc Marquez	1:30.380	+0.169	+0.210	Medium	24
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.392	+0.181	+0.553	Medium	26
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.435	+0.224	+0.221	Medium	26
Enea Bastianini	1:30.448	+0.237	+0.319	Medium	26
Joan Mir	1:30.523	+0.312	+0.562	Medium	25
Brad Binder	1:30.556	+0.345	+0.327	Medium	23
Jorge Martin	1:30.578	+0.367	+0.457	Medium	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.668	+0.457	+0.320	Medium	16
Alex Marquez	1:30.721	+0.510	+0.356	Medium	25
Johann Zarco	1:30.738	+0.527	+0.344	Medium	26
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.748	+0.537	+0.512	Medium	24
Raul Fernandez	1:30.793	+0.582	+0.667	Medium	25
Ai Ogura	1:30.804	+0.593	+0.300	Medium	25
Luca Marini	1:30.852	+0.641	+0.308	Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.990	+0.779	+0.275	Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:31.106	+0.895	+0.217	Medium	24
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.252	+1.041	+0.193	Medium	24
Jack Miller	1:31.410	+1.199	+0.105	Medium	24

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

9/28

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.118 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Ai Ogura, from P19 to P14.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Marco Bezzecchi (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/14

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.180 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Di Giannantonio, from P15 to P8.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Marc Marquez (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:14:39	Francesco Bagnaia	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:16:14	Raul Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:03:53	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:07:06	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race	14:23:17	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK - Medical Centre
Race	14:33:28	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	14:41:00	Francesco Bagnaia	Position penalty	To drop 1 position due to gaining advantage at turn 1
Race	14:41:39	Francesco Bagnaia	Position penalty	To drop 1 position - COMPLETE
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for rider #73

Race: 4 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 12 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marco Bezzecchi (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	20	16	+4
Jorge Martin	14	11	+3
Pedro Acosta	7	5	+2
Luca Marini	13	19	−6
Franco Morbidelli	8	13	−5
Fermin Aldeguer	6	8	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Fermin Aldeguer	6→2	+4.0
Marc Marquez	4→1	+3.8
Pedro Acosta	7→4	+2.7
Franco Morbidelli	8→11	−3.7
Francesco Bagnaia	3→8	−3.9
Alex Marquez	2→10	−6.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.54%	+0.042	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.8 °C

Air

max 23.4 °C

64%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 25 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 15.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.376	—	20	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:30.688	+0.62%	6	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.686	+0.310	19	317.1	Soft / Medium	1:30.441	+0.35%	6	Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.762	+0.386	18	311.6	Hard / Medium	1:30.227	+0.11%	5	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:29.788	+0.412	19	311.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.837	+0.461	21	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:30.647	+0.58%	9	Medium
6	Joan Mir	01:29.853	+0.477	18	310.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.924	+0.548	18	307.6	Hard / Medium	1:30.126	—	6	Medium
8	Jorge Martin	01:29.945	+0.569	18	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Pedro Acosta	01:29.956	+0.580	21	315.7	Soft / Medium	1:32.292	+2.40%	5	Medium
10	Enea Bastianini	01:29.957	+0.581	19	311.6	Soft / Medium	1:30.671	+0.61%	5	Medium
11	Luca Marini	01:30.014	+0.638	21	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:31.080	+1.06%	5	Medium
12	Alex Rins	01:30.053	+0.677	19	310.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.089	+0.713	21	314.4	Soft / Medium	1:30.560	+0.48%	6	Medium
14	Brad Binder	01:30.267	+0.891	21	315.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Fermin Aldeguer	01:30.350	+0.974	20	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:30.822	+0.77%	12	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	01:30.410	+1.034	18	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:31.097	+1.08%	5	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	01:30.422	+1.046	17	306.3	Soft / Medium	1:30.567	+0.49%	5	Medium
18	Jack Miller	01:30.565	+1.189	19	310.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
19	Ai Ogura	01:30.581	+1.205	22	306.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.209	+1.20%	8	Medium
20	Maverick Viñales	01:30.683	+1.307	16	310.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.882	+1.506	20	311.6	Hard / Medium	—			—

Practice · 15.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:28.117	—	27	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:29.810	+0.29%	5	Medium
2	Pedro Acosta	01:28.345	+0.228	27	315.7	Medium / Soft	1:29.596	+0.05%	5	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.385	+0.268	26	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:29.550	—	4	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:28.435	+0.318	25	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:29.664	+0.13%	5	Medium
5	Raul Fernandez	01:28.519	+0.402	25	309.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Joan Mir	01:28.694	+0.577	27	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:28.696	+0.579	27	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:29.738	+0.21%	4	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:28.765	+0.648	21	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Fermin Aldeguer	01:28.769	+0.652	25	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:30.029	+0.54%	6	Medium
10	Brad Binder	01:28.845	+0.728	26	315.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Enea Bastianini	01:28.866	+0.749	26	314.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Ai Ogura	01:28.877	+0.760	26	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:31.014	+1.64%	7	Medium
13	Luca Marini	01:28.938	+0.821	28	314.4	Hard / Soft	1:30.452	+1.01%	5	Soft
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.015	+0.898	23	309.0	Hard / Medium	1:29.787	+0.27%	7	Medium
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.058	+0.941	27	314.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Jorge Martin	01:29.066	+0.949	21	315.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:29.160	+1.043	24	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.469	+1.352	29	314.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.633	+1.516	23	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.394	+0.94%	10	Soft
20	Jack Miller	01:29.787	+1.670	24	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Maverick Viñales	01:30.800	+2.683	6	307.6	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 16.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:28.751	—	15	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:29.156	—	6	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.077	+0.326	12	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:29.592	+0.49%	6	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	01:29.115	+0.364	15	315.7	Medium / Soft	1:29.529	+0.42%	5	Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.231	+0.480	15	314.4	Medium / Soft	1:29.594	+0.49%	10	Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:29.231	+0.480	15	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.021	+0.97%	11	Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:29.264	+0.513	13	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Raul Fernandez	01:29.358	+0.607	13	311.6	Medium / Medium	1:29.975	+0.92%	5	Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.360	+0.609	13	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:29.410	+0.29%	5	Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:29.443	+0.692	14	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:29.596	+0.49%	5	Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.484	+0.733	13	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:29.761	+0.68%	5	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.501	+0.750	13	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:29.714	+0.63%	5	Soft
12	Jorge Martin	01:29.544	+0.793	14	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:29.919	+0.86%	5	Soft
13	Enea Bastianini	01:29.601	+0.850	14	314.4	Medium / Soft	1:29.696	+0.61%	5	Soft
14	Fermin Aldeguer	01:29.639	+0.888	14	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.423	+1.42%	5	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.706	+0.955	13	311.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Johann Zarco	01:29.718	+0.967	14	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.281	+1.26%	6	Soft
17	Maverick Viñales	01:29.802	+1.051	10	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Brad Binder	01:29.807	+1.056	16	314.4	Medium / Soft	1:30.097	+1.06%	7	Soft
19	Ai Ogura	01:29.809	+1.058	15	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.311	+1.30%	5	Soft
20	Alex Rins	01:29.898	+1.147	13	311.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Jack Miller	01:30.055	+1.304	13	311.6	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 16.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Enea Bastianini	01:28.353	—	9	314.4	Medium / Soft
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.409	+0.056	9	315.7	Medium / Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:28.628	+0.275	9	311.6	Medium / Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:28.664	+0.311	8	314.4	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:28.687	+0.334	9	315.7	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:28.738	+0.385	8	310.3	Medium / Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:28.884	+0.531	9	313.0	Medium / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.024	+0.671	9	317.1	Medium / Soft
9	Ai Ogura	01:29.080	+0.727	9	318.5	Medium / Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:29.085	+0.732	9	314.4	Medium / Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:29.586	+1.233	3	310.3	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 16.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.060	—	9	314.4	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:28.076	+0.016	9	314.4	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.202	+0.142	8	314.4	Medium / Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:28.220	+0.160	7	314.4	Medium / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:28.236	+0.176	8	318.5	Medium / Soft
6	Fermin Aldeguer	01:28.302	+0.242	9	313.0	Medium / Soft
7	Pedro Acosta	01:28.416	+0.356	7	318.5	Medium / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:28.439	+0.379	8	315.7	Medium / Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	01:28.548	+0.488	8	311.6	Medium / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:28.671	+0.611	9	313.0	Medium / Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:28.761	+0.701	7	317.1	Medium / Soft
12	Johann Zarco	01:28.787	+0.727	6	315.7	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 16.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	20:56.071	12	14	Medium / Soft	1:29.368	—	11	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	+1.180	9	14	Medium / Soft	1:29.416	+0.05%	12	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	+3.126	7	14	Medium / Soft	1:29.631	+0.29%	11	Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	+4.032	6	14	Medium / Soft	1:29.799	+0.48%	12	Soft
5	Brad Binder	+4.782	5	14	Medium / Soft	1:29.777	+0.46%	10	Soft
6	Fermin Aldeguer	+6.032	4	14	Medium / Soft	1:29.756	+0.43%	11	Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	+8.294	3	14	Medium / Soft	1:29.782	+0.46%	10	Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+10.953	2	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.061	+0.78%	12	Soft
9	Johann Zarco	+11.999	1	14	Medium / Medium	1:30.216	+0.95%	12	Medium
10	Jorge Martin	+12.111	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.105	+0.83%	10	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	+13.387	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.222	+0.96%	10	Soft
12	Luca Marini	+13.704	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.339	+1.09%	11	Soft
13	Joan Mir	+13.822	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.358	+1.11%	11	Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	+14.564	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.350	+1.10%	12	Soft
15	Ai Ogura	+18.414	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.491	+1.26%	10	Soft
16	Alex Rins	+19.365	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.530	+1.30%	10	Soft
17	Jack Miller	+20.844	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.575	+1.35%	12	Soft
18	Miguel Oliveira	+21.581	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.833	+1.64%	12	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	8	Medium / Soft	1:30.597	+1.38%	6	Soft
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	9	Medium / Soft	1:29.562	+0.22%	7	Soft

Warm Up · 17.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.350	—	7	314.4	Medium / Medium	1:29.940	+0.01%	5	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.549	+0.199	7	313.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Alex Marquez	01:29.605	+0.255	7	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:29.962	+0.04%	5	Medium
4	Enea Bastianini	01:29.690	+0.340	7	313.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Marc Marquez	01:29.753	+0.403	6	311.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Fermin Aldeguer	01:29.801	+0.451	7	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:30.186	+0.29%	5	Medium
7	Pedro Acosta	01:29.804	+0.454	7	313.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.822	+0.472	6	310.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Raul Fernandez	01:29.843	+0.493	7	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:29.930	—	5	Medium
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.874	+0.524	7	313.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Ai Ogura	01:29.885	+0.535	7	309.0	Medium / Medium	1:30.152	+0.25%	5	Medium
12	Luca Marini	01:29.997	+0.647	6	309.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Joan Mir	01:30.010	+0.660	6	309.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Brad Binder	01:30.100	+0.750	7	309.0	Medium / Medium	1:30.656	+0.81%	5	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.186	+0.836	7	311.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Jorge Martin	01:30.391	+1.041	6	306.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:30.533	+1.183	7	310.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.000	+1.650	6	306.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Johann Zarco	01:31.145	+1.795	6	310.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Jack Miller	01:32.620	+3.270	2	310.3	Medium / Medium	—			—

Race · 17.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	42:11.006	25	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.380	+0.19%	24	Medium
2	Fermin Aldeguer	+1.118	20	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.211	—	26	Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	+3.426	16	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.392	+0.20%	26	Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	+6.864	13	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.336	+0.14%	25	Medium
5	Enea Bastianini	+8.731	11	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.448	+0.26%	26	Medium
6	Joan Mir	+10.132	10	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.523	+0.35%	25	Medium
7	Brad Binder	+10.476	9	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.556	+0.38%	23	Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	+12.486	8	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.435	+0.25%	26	Medium
9	Raul Fernandez	+15.472	7	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.793	+0.65%	25	Medium
10	Alex Marquez	+15.537	6	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.721	+0.57%	25	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	+16.185	5	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.748	+0.60%	24	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	+16.241	4	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.738	+0.58%	26	Medium
13	Luca Marini	+18.478	3	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.852	+0.71%	23	Medium
14	Ai Ogura	+18.491	2	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.804	+0.66%	25	Medium
15	Fabio Quartararo	+25.256	1	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.990	+0.86%	23	Medium
16	Alex Rins	+30.316	0	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.106	+0.99%	24	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	+34.008	0	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.252	+1.15%	24	Medium
18	Jack Miller	+37.478	0	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.410	+1.33%	24	Medium
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	20	Medium / Medium	1:30.668	+0.51%	16	Medium
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	13	Medium / Medium	1:30.578	+0.41%	8	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Luca Marini	1:29.714	—	+0.308	Medium	5
Marc Marquez	1:29.806*	+0.092	+0.210	Medium	3
Pedro Acosta	1:29.855*	+0.141	+0.448	Medium	3
Marco Bezzecchi	1:29.892*	+0.178	+0.553	Medium	4
Raul Fernandez	1:29.913	+0.199	+0.667	Medium	5
Joan Mir	1:30.010	+0.296	+0.562	Medium	5
Ai Ogura	1:30.086*	+0.372	+0.300	Medium	4
Jack Miller	1:30.338*	+0.624	+0.105	Medium	4
Jorge Martin	1:30.391	+0.677	+0.457	Medium	5
Miguel Oliveira	1:30.434	+0.720	+0.193	Medium	9
Brad Binder	1:30.599*	+0.885	+0.327	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jorge Martin	56%	4
2	Fabio Quartararo	43%	6
3	Luca Marini	28%	3
4	Enea Bastianini	21%	1 ✓
5	Marco Bezzecchi	19%	2 ✓
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	11%	5
7	Miguel Oliveira	7%	8
8	Ai Ogura	4%	9
9	Alex Rins	3%	7
10	Maverick Viñales	3%	11
11	Jack Miller	4%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	38%	66%	88%	4
2	Francesco Bagnaia	22%	53%	81%	3
3	Pedro Acosta	14%	46%	76%	7
4	Alex Marquez	5%	32%	67%	2
5	Raul Fernandez	4%	25%	54%	9
6	Joan Mir	6%	22%	55%	10
7	Franco Morbidelli	1%	13%	41%	8
8	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	14%	37%	1
9	Fermin Aldeguer	3%	8%	30%	6
10	Johann Zarco	2%	9%	25%	12
11	Enea Bastianini	2%	9%	28%	5
12	Brad Binder	1%	4%	19%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Sprint	Maverick Viñales	21	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Maverick Viñales	21	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	31%	61%	75%	85%	14%	4
Alex Marquez	2	22%	54%	72%	87%	11%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	3	14%	48%	67%	85%	12%	—
Marc Marquez	4	10%	37%	62%	87%	9%	1
Enea Bastianini	5	7%	29%	54%	86%	8%	7
Fermin Aldeguer	6	5%	23%	48%	87%	4%	6
Pedro Acosta	7	3%	14%	32%	74%	15%	3
Franco Morbidelli	8	2%	11%	28%	76%	7%	14
Raul Fernandez	9	2%	7%	20%	73%	5%	—
Joan Mir	10	1%	4%	11%	50%	25%	13
Brad Binder	11	1%	3%	9%	49%	17%	5
Johann Zarco	12	0%	2%	6%	39%	21%	9
Luca Marini	13	0%	2%	5%	35%	11%	12
Jorge Martin	14	0%	1%	3%	30%	4%	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15	0%	1%	2%	18%	16%	8
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	10%	11
Alex Rins	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	11%	16
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	13%	18
Ai Ogura	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	5%	15
Jack Miller	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	8%	17
Maverick Viñales	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	16%	46%	67%	83%	16%	3
Alex Marquez	2	28%	57%	69%	76%	24%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	3	1%	6%	15%	60%	22%	8
Marc Marquez	4	25%	59%	73%	82%	16%	1
Enea Bastianini	5	10%	36%	60%	81%	17%	5
Fermin Aldeguer	6	3%	18%	37%	70%	23%	2
Pedro Acosta	7	7%	29%	52%	76%	19%	4
Franco Morbidelli	8	0%	5%	14%	59%	16%	11
Raul Fernandez	9	6%	26%	48%	77%	19%	9
Joan Mir	10	0%	1%	4%	31%	36%	6
Brad Binder	11	2%	11%	29%	74%	14%	7
Johann Zarco	12	0%	2%	9%	51%	18%	12
Luca Marini	13	0%	1%	4%	37%	8%	13
Jorge Martin	14	0%	2%	8%	44%	21%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15	0%	2%	7%	48%	15%	—
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	1%	3%	31%	13%	15
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	0%	6%	20%	16
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	0%	4%	22%	17
Ai Ogura	19	0%	0%	0%	7%	26%	14
Jack Miller	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	25%	18
Maverick Viñales	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	37% → 59%	+22	12% → 25%
Raul Fernandez	9% → 26%	+16	2% → 6%
Alex Marquez	47% → 57%	+10	18% → 28%
Dropping
Francesco Bagnaia	42% → 6%	−37	14% → 1%
Marco Bezzecchi	57% → 46%	−11	29% → 16%
Franco Morbidelli	14% → 5%	−10	3% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:29.368	—	+0.210	Soft	11
Alex Marquez	1:29.416	+0.048	+0.356	Soft	12
Raul Fernandez	1:29.562	+0.194	+0.667	Soft	7
Pedro Acosta	1:29.631	+0.263	+0.448	Soft	11
Fermin Aldeguer	1:29.756	+0.388	+0.884	Soft	11
Brad Binder	1:29.777	+0.409	+0.327	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:29.782	+0.414	+0.319	Soft	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:29.799	+0.431	+0.553	Soft	12
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.061	+0.693	+0.320	Soft	12
Jorge Martin	1:30.105	+0.737	+0.457	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:30.216	+0.848	+0.344	Medium	12
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.222	+0.854	+0.275	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:30.339	+0.971	+0.308	Soft	11
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.350	+0.982	+0.512	Soft	12
Joan Mir	1:30.358	+0.990	+0.562	Soft	11
Ai Ogura	1:30.491	+1.123	+0.300	Soft	10
Alex Rins	1:30.530	+1.162	+0.217	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:30.575	+1.207	+0.105	Soft	12
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.597	+1.229	+0.221	Soft	6
Miguel Oliveira	1:30.833	+1.465	+0.193	Soft	12

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,347 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.38%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.34%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.31%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.36%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Jorge Martin +0.36%	Ai Ogura +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.45%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Marc Marquez +0.34%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.46%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Pol Espargaro +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Brad Binder +0.31%
S2	Brad Binder +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.20%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S2	Jack Miller +0.13%	Enea Bastianini +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.54%	Jack Miller +0.62%
S4	Luca Marini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Miguel Oliveira +0.36%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Joan Mir +0.19%	Iker Lecuona +0.19%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Enea Bastianini +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.32%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Danilo Petrucci +0.39%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.23%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.09%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.17%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.70%
S3	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

62/100

Position index

11%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 12% and 65%; 9 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	381	—
2	Alex Marquez	261	−120
3	Francesco Bagnaia	213	−168
4	Marco Bezzecchi	156	−225
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	142	−239
6	Franco Morbidelli	139	−242

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

27/28

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

3.232 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P22 to P14.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Maverick Viñales (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:29.989	—	+0.221	Medium	25
Jorge Martin	1:30.256	+0.267	+0.457	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:30.385	+0.396	+0.319	Medium	25
Marc Marquez	1:30.636	+0.647	+0.210	Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:30.894	+0.905	+0.327	Medium	26
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.922	+0.933	+0.512	Medium	24
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.942	+0.953	+0.553	Medium	24
Maverick Viñales	1:31.093	+1.104	+0.292	Medium	24
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.155	+1.166	+0.193	Medium	23
Pol Espargaro	1:31.162	+1.173	+0.406	Medium	24

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Pedro AcostaKTM
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Brad BinderKTM
2020Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	1/22	5%
2025	2/20	10%
2024	2/24	8%
2023	3/23	13%
2022	5/25	20%
2021	3/20	15%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+1.44%	+0.048	1	3	11.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.