MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 13 of 22 Aftermath

Austrian Grand Prix 2025

Red Bull Ring - Spielberg Austria

4.348 m · 28 laps · since 1996
15.08 – 17.08.2025
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezDucatiDucati Lenovo Team42:11.00625
2Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+1.11820
3Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing+3.42616
4Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+6.86413
5Enea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+8.73111
6Joan MirHondaHonda HRC Castrol+10.13210
7Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+10.4769
8Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+12.4868
9Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+15.4727
10Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+15.5376
11Franco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+16.1855
12Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+16.2414
13Luca MariniHondaHonda HRC Castrol+18.4783
14Ai OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+18.4912
15Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+25.2561
16Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+30.3160
17Miguel OliveiraYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+34.0080
18Jack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+37.4780
DNFFabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing TeamRetired0
DNFJorge MartinApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezDucatiDucati Lenovo Team20:56.07112
2Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+1.1809
3Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+3.1267
4Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing+4.0326
5Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+4.7825
6Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+6.0324
7Enea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+8.2943
8Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+10.9532
9Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+11.9991
10Jorge MartinApriliaAprilia Racing+12.1110
11Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+13.3870
12Luca MariniHondaHonda HRC Castrol+13.7040
13Joan MirHondaHonda HRC Castrol+13.8220
14Franco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+14.5640
15Ai OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+18.4140
16Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+19.3650
17Jack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+20.8440
18Miguel OliveiraYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+21.5810
DNFFrancesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0
DNFRaul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP TeamRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintMarco Bezzecchi · 31%Marc Marquez · 10% · from P40.82 / 0.822.5 / 2.5
Race (after the grid)Marco Bezzecchi · 29%Marc Marquez · 12% · from P40.81 / 0.812.6 / 2.7
Race (after the sprint)Alex Marquez · 28%Marc Marquez · 25% · from P40.84 / 0.812.3 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Fermin Aldeguer1:30.211—+0.884Medium26
Pedro Acosta1:30.336+0.125+0.448Medium25
Marc Marquez1:30.380+0.169+0.210Medium24
Marco Bezzecchi1:30.392+0.181+0.553Medium26
Francesco Bagnaia1:30.435+0.224+0.221Medium26
Enea Bastianini1:30.448+0.237+0.319Medium26
Joan Mir1:30.523+0.312+0.562Medium25
Brad Binder1:30.556+0.345+0.327Medium23
Jorge Martin1:30.578+0.367+0.457Medium8
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:30.668+0.457+0.320Medium16
Alex Marquez1:30.721+0.510+0.356Medium25
Johann Zarco1:30.738+0.527+0.344Medium26
Franco Morbidelli1:30.748+0.537+0.512Medium24
Raul Fernandez1:30.793+0.582+0.667Medium25
Ai Ogura1:30.804+0.593+0.300Medium25
Luca Marini1:30.852+0.641+0.308Medium23
Fabio Quartararo1:30.990+0.779+0.275Medium23
Alex Rins1:31.106+0.895+0.217Medium24
Miguel Oliveira1:31.252+1.041+0.193Medium24
Jack Miller1:31.410+1.199+0.105Medium24

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

52
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
9/28
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
1.118 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Ai Ogura, from P19 to P14.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Marco Bezzecchi (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

44
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
5/14
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
1.180 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Di Giannantonio, from P15 to P8.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Marc Marquez (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:14:39Francesco BagnaiaRetiredEntered pits and retired
Sprint15:16:14Raul FernandezRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:03:53Alex MarquezLong lapLong lap penalty
Race14:07:06Alex MarquezLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETE
Race14:23:17Jorge MartinCrashCrashed out - Rider OK - Medical Centre
Race14:33:28Fabio Di GiannantonioTechnical problemStopped with technical issue
Race14:41:00Francesco BagnaiaPosition penaltyTo drop 1 position due to gaining advantage at turn 1
Race14:41:39Francesco BagnaiaPosition penaltyTo drop 1 position - COMPLETE
RaceSanctionFIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for rider #73

Race: 4 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 12 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium100%+0.54%+0.042139.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
22.8 °C
Air
max 23.4 °C
64%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
10 km/h
Wind
gusts 25 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 15.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez01:29.376—20313.0Soft / Medium1:30.688+0.62%6Medium
2Francesco Bagnaia01:29.686+0.31019317.1Soft / Medium1:30.441+0.35%6Medium
3Marco Bezzecchi01:29.762+0.38618311.6Hard / Medium1:30.227+0.11%5Medium
4Alex Marquez01:29.788+0.41219311.6Soft / Medium——
5Franco Morbidelli01:29.837+0.46121309.0Soft / Medium1:30.647+0.58%9Medium
6Joan Mir01:29.853+0.47718310.3Hard / Medium——
7Fabio Quartararo01:29.924+0.54818307.6Hard / Medium1:30.126—6Medium
8Jorge Martin01:29.945+0.56918310.3Medium / Soft——
9Pedro Acosta01:29.956+0.58021315.7Soft / Medium1:32.292+2.40%5Medium
10Enea Bastianini01:29.957+0.58119311.6Soft / Medium1:30.671+0.61%5Medium
11Luca Marini01:30.014+0.63821313.0Soft / Medium1:31.080+1.06%5Medium
12Alex Rins01:30.053+0.67719310.3Hard / Medium——
13Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.089+0.71321314.4Soft / Medium1:30.560+0.48%6Medium
14Brad Binder01:30.267+0.89121315.7Soft / Medium——
15Fermin Aldeguer01:30.350+0.97420313.0Soft / Medium1:30.822+0.77%12Medium
16Johann Zarco01:30.410+1.03418313.0Soft / Medium1:31.097+1.08%5Medium
17Raul Fernandez01:30.422+1.04617306.3Soft / Medium1:30.567+0.49%5Medium
18Jack Miller01:30.565+1.18919310.3Hard / Medium——
19Ai Ogura01:30.581+1.20522306.3Soft / Medium1:31.209+1.20%8Medium
20Maverick Viñales01:30.683+1.30716310.3Soft / Medium——
21Miguel Oliveira01:30.882+1.50620311.6Hard / Medium——
Practice · 15.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez01:28.117—27310.3Medium / Soft1:29.810+0.29%5Medium
2Pedro Acosta01:28.345+0.22827315.7Medium / Soft1:29.596+0.05%5Medium
3Francesco Bagnaia01:28.385+0.26826311.6Medium / Soft1:29.550—4Medium
4Alex Marquez01:28.435+0.31825309.0Medium / Soft1:29.664+0.13%5Medium
5Raul Fernandez01:28.519+0.40225309.0Medium / Soft——
6Joan Mir01:28.694+0.57727313.0Medium / Soft——
7Franco Morbidelli01:28.696+0.57927310.3Medium / Soft1:29.738+0.21%4Soft
8Johann Zarco01:28.765+0.64821313.0Hard / Soft——
9Fermin Aldeguer01:28.769+0.65225310.3Medium / Soft1:30.029+0.54%6Medium
10Brad Binder01:28.845+0.72826315.7Medium / Soft——
11Enea Bastianini01:28.866+0.74926314.4Medium / Soft——
12Ai Ogura01:28.877+0.76026311.6Medium / Soft1:31.014+1.64%7Medium
13Luca Marini01:28.938+0.82128314.4Hard / Soft1:30.452+1.01%5Soft
14Fabio Quartararo01:29.015+0.89823309.0Hard / Medium1:29.787+0.27%7Medium
15Fabio Di Giannantonio01:29.058+0.94127314.4Medium / Soft——
16Jorge Martin01:29.066+0.94921315.7Medium / Medium——
17Alex Rins01:29.160+1.04324313.0Hard / Soft——
18Marco Bezzecchi01:29.469+1.35229314.4Hard / Soft——
19Miguel Oliveira01:29.633+1.51623311.6Medium / Soft1:30.394+0.94%10Soft
20Jack Miller01:29.787+1.67024313.0Medium / Soft——
21Maverick Viñales01:30.800+2.6836307.6Medium / Medium——
FP2 · 16.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez01:28.751—15313.0Medium / Soft1:29.156—6Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia01:29.077+0.32612313.0Medium / Soft1:29.592+0.49%6Soft
3Pedro Acosta01:29.115+0.36415315.7Medium / Soft1:29.529+0.42%5Soft
4Marco Bezzecchi01:29.231+0.48015314.4Medium / Soft1:29.594+0.49%10Soft
5Alex Marquez01:29.231+0.48015313.0Medium / Soft1:30.021+0.97%11Soft
6Luca Marini01:29.264+0.51313310.3Medium / Soft——
7Raul Fernandez01:29.358+0.60713311.6Medium / Medium1:29.975+0.92%5Soft
8Fabio Di Giannantonio01:29.360+0.60913313.0Medium / Soft1:29.410+0.29%5Soft
9Joan Mir01:29.443+0.69214311.6Medium / Soft1:29.596+0.49%5Soft
10Franco Morbidelli01:29.484+0.73313313.0Medium / Soft1:29.761+0.68%5Soft
11Fabio Quartararo01:29.501+0.75013309.0Medium / Soft1:29.714+0.63%5Soft
12Jorge Martin01:29.544+0.79314310.3Medium / Soft1:29.919+0.86%5Soft
13Enea Bastianini01:29.601+0.85014314.4Medium / Soft1:29.696+0.61%5Soft
14Fermin Aldeguer01:29.639+0.88814313.0Medium / Soft1:30.423+1.42%5Soft
15Miguel Oliveira01:29.706+0.95513311.6Medium / Soft——
16Johann Zarco01:29.718+0.96714313.0Medium / Soft1:30.281+1.26%6Soft
17Maverick Viñales01:29.802+1.05110310.3Medium / Soft——
18Brad Binder01:29.807+1.05616314.4Medium / Soft1:30.097+1.06%7Soft
19Ai Ogura01:29.809+1.05815313.0Medium / Soft1:30.311+1.30%5Soft
20Alex Rins01:29.898+1.14713311.6Medium / Soft——
21Jack Miller01:30.055+1.30413311.6Medium / Soft——
Q1 · 16.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Enea Bastianini01:28.353—9314.4Medium / Soft
2Marco Bezzecchi01:28.409+0.0569315.7Medium / Soft
3Luca Marini01:28.628+0.2759311.6Medium / Soft
4Jorge Martin01:28.664+0.3118314.4Medium / Soft
5Fabio Di Giannantonio01:28.687+0.3349315.7Medium / Soft
6Fabio Quartararo01:28.738+0.3858310.3Medium / Soft
7Alex Rins01:28.884+0.5319313.0Medium / Soft
8Miguel Oliveira01:29.024+0.6719317.1Medium / Soft
9Ai Ogura01:29.080+0.7279318.5Medium / Soft
10Jack Miller01:29.085+0.7329314.4Medium / Soft
11Maverick Viñales01:29.586+1.2333310.3Medium / Soft
Q2 · 16.08
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Marco Bezzecchi01:28.060—9314.4Medium / Soft
2Alex Marquez01:28.076+0.0169314.4Medium / Soft
3Francesco Bagnaia01:28.202+0.1428314.4Medium / Soft
4Marc Marquez01:28.220+0.1607314.4Medium / Soft
5Enea Bastianini01:28.236+0.1768318.5Medium / Soft
6Fermin Aldeguer01:28.302+0.2429313.0Medium / Soft
7Pedro Acosta01:28.416+0.3567318.5Medium / Soft
8Franco Morbidelli01:28.439+0.3798315.7Medium / Soft
9Raul Fernandez01:28.548+0.4888311.6Medium / Soft
10Joan Mir01:28.671+0.6119313.0Medium / Soft
11Brad Binder01:28.761+0.7017317.1Medium / Soft
12Johann Zarco01:28.787+0.7276315.7Medium / Soft
Sprint · 16.08
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez20:56.0711214Medium / Soft1:29.368—11Soft
2Alex Marquez+1.180914Medium / Soft1:29.416+0.05%12Soft
3Pedro Acosta+3.126714Medium / Soft1:29.631+0.29%11Soft
4Marco Bezzecchi+4.032614Medium / Soft1:29.799+0.48%12Soft
5Brad Binder+4.782514Medium / Soft1:29.777+0.46%10Soft
6Fermin Aldeguer+6.032414Medium / Soft1:29.756+0.43%11Soft
7Enea Bastianini+8.294314Medium / Soft1:29.782+0.46%10Soft
8Fabio Di Giannantonio+10.953214Medium / Soft1:30.061+0.78%12Soft
9Johann Zarco+11.999114Medium / Medium1:30.216+0.95%12Medium
10Jorge Martin+12.111014Medium / Soft1:30.105+0.83%10Soft
11Fabio Quartararo+13.387014Medium / Soft1:30.222+0.96%10Soft
12Luca Marini+13.704014Medium / Soft1:30.339+1.09%11Soft
13Joan Mir+13.822014Medium / Soft1:30.358+1.11%11Soft
14Franco Morbidelli+14.564014Medium / Soft1:30.350+1.10%12Soft
15Ai Ogura+18.414014Medium / Soft1:30.491+1.26%10Soft
16Alex Rins+19.365014Medium / Soft1:30.530+1.30%10Soft
17Jack Miller+20.844014Medium / Soft1:30.575+1.35%12Soft
18Miguel Oliveira+21.581014Medium / Soft1:30.833+1.64%12Soft
RetiredFrancesco Bagnaia08Medium / Soft1:30.597+1.38%6Soft
RetiredRaul Fernandez09Medium / Soft1:29.562+0.22%7Soft
Warm Up · 17.08 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi01:29.350—7314.4Medium / Medium1:29.940+0.01%5Medium
2Francesco Bagnaia01:29.549+0.1997313.0Medium / Medium——
3Alex Marquez01:29.605+0.2557309.0Soft / Medium1:29.962+0.04%5Medium
4Enea Bastianini01:29.690+0.3407313.0Soft / Medium——
5Marc Marquez01:29.753+0.4036311.6Soft / Medium——
6Fermin Aldeguer01:29.801+0.4517309.0Soft / Medium1:30.186+0.29%5Medium
7Pedro Acosta01:29.804+0.4547313.0Medium / Medium——
8Franco Morbidelli01:29.822+0.4726310.3Soft / Medium——
9Raul Fernandez01:29.843+0.4937307.6Medium / Medium1:29.930—5Medium
10Fabio Di Giannantonio01:29.874+0.5247313.0Soft / Medium——
11Ai Ogura01:29.885+0.5357309.0Medium / Medium1:30.152+0.25%5Medium
12Luca Marini01:29.997+0.6476309.0Medium / Medium——
13Joan Mir01:30.010+0.6606309.0Medium / Medium——
14Brad Binder01:30.100+0.7507309.0Medium / Medium1:30.656+0.81%5Medium
15Miguel Oliveira01:30.186+0.8367311.6Medium / Medium——
16Jorge Martin01:30.391+1.0416306.3Medium / Medium——
17Alex Rins01:30.533+1.1837310.3Medium / Medium——
18Fabio Quartararo01:31.000+1.6506306.3Medium / Medium——
19Johann Zarco01:31.145+1.7956310.3Soft / Medium——
20Jack Miller01:32.620+3.2702310.3Medium / Medium——
Race · 17.08
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez42:11.0062528Medium / Medium1:30.380+0.19%24Medium
2Fermin Aldeguer+1.1182028Medium / Medium1:30.211—26Medium
3Marco Bezzecchi+3.4261628Medium / Medium1:30.392+0.20%26Medium
4Pedro Acosta+6.8641328Medium / Medium1:30.336+0.14%25Medium
5Enea Bastianini+8.7311128Medium / Medium1:30.448+0.26%26Medium
6Joan Mir+10.1321028Medium / Medium1:30.523+0.35%25Medium
7Brad Binder+10.476928Medium / Medium1:30.556+0.38%23Medium
8Francesco Bagnaia+12.486828Medium / Medium1:30.435+0.25%26Medium
9Raul Fernandez+15.472728Medium / Medium1:30.793+0.65%25Medium
10Alex Marquez+15.537628Medium / Medium1:30.721+0.57%25Medium
11Franco Morbidelli+16.185528Medium / Medium1:30.748+0.60%24Medium
12Johann Zarco+16.241428Medium / Medium1:30.738+0.58%26Medium
13Luca Marini+18.478328Medium / Medium1:30.852+0.71%23Medium
14Ai Ogura+18.491228Medium / Medium1:30.804+0.66%25Medium
15Fabio Quartararo+25.256128Medium / Medium1:30.990+0.86%23Medium
16Alex Rins+30.316028Hard / Medium1:31.106+0.99%24Medium
17Miguel Oliveira+34.008028Medium / Medium1:31.252+1.15%24Medium
18Jack Miller+37.478028Medium / Medium1:31.410+1.33%24Medium
RetiredFabio Di Giannantonio020Medium / Medium1:30.668+0.51%16Medium
RetiredJorge Martin013Medium / Medium1:30.578+0.41%8Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Luca Marini1:29.714—+0.308Medium5
Marc Marquez1:29.806*+0.092+0.210Medium3
Pedro Acosta1:29.855*+0.141+0.448Medium3
Marco Bezzecchi1:29.892*+0.178+0.553Medium4
Raul Fernandez1:29.913+0.199+0.667Medium5
Joan Mir1:30.010+0.296+0.562Medium5
Ai Ogura1:30.086*+0.372+0.300Medium4
Jack Miller1:30.338*+0.624+0.105Medium4
Jorge Martin1:30.391+0.677+0.457Medium5
Miguel Oliveira1:30.434+0.720+0.193Medium9
Brad Binder1:30.599*+0.885+0.327Medium3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
SprintMaverick Viñales21——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
RaceMaverick Viñales21——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marco Bezzecchi131%61%75%85%14%4
Alex Marquez222%54%72%87%11%2
Francesco Bagnaia314%48%67%85%12%—
Marc Marquez410%37%62%87%9%1
Enea Bastianini57%29%54%86%8%7
Fermin Aldeguer65%23%48%87%4%6
Pedro Acosta73%14%32%74%15%3
Franco Morbidelli82%11%28%76%7%14
Raul Fernandez92%7%20%73%5%—
Joan Mir101%4%11%50%25%13
Brad Binder111%3%9%49%17%5
Johann Zarco120%2%6%39%21%9
Luca Marini130%2%5%35%11%12
Jorge Martin140%1%3%30%4%10
Fabio Di Giannantonio150%1%2%18%16%8
Fabio Quartararo160%1%2%15%10%11
Alex Rins170%1%1%9%11%16
Miguel Oliveira180%0%1%7%13%18
Ai Ogura190%0%1%5%5%15
Jack Miller200%0%1%3%8%17
Maverick Viñales210%0%0%2%9%—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marco Bezzecchi116%46%67%83%16%3
Alex Marquez228%57%69%76%24%10
Francesco Bagnaia31%6%15%60%22%8
Marc Marquez425%59%73%82%16%1
Enea Bastianini510%36%60%81%17%5
Fermin Aldeguer63%18%37%70%23%2
Pedro Acosta77%29%52%76%19%4
Franco Morbidelli80%5%14%59%16%11
Raul Fernandez96%26%48%77%19%9
Joan Mir100%1%4%31%36%6
Brad Binder112%11%29%74%14%7
Johann Zarco120%2%9%51%18%12
Luca Marini130%1%4%37%8%13
Jorge Martin140%2%8%44%21%—
Fabio Di Giannantonio150%2%7%48%15%—
Fabio Quartararo160%1%3%31%13%15
Alex Rins170%0%0%6%20%16
Miguel Oliveira180%0%0%4%22%17
Ai Ogura190%0%0%7%26%14
Jack Miller200%0%0%3%25%18
Maverick Viñales210%0%0%2%13%—

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Marc Marquez37% → 59%+2212% → 25%
Raul Fernandez9% → 26%+162% → 6%
Alex Marquez47% → 57%+1018% → 28%
Dropping
Francesco Bagnaia42% → 6%−3714% → 1%
Marco Bezzecchi57% → 46%−1129% → 16%
Franco Morbidelli14% → 5%−103% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marc Marquez1:29.368—+0.210Soft11
Alex Marquez1:29.416+0.048+0.356Soft12
Raul Fernandez1:29.562+0.194+0.667Soft7
Pedro Acosta1:29.631+0.263+0.448Soft11
Fermin Aldeguer1:29.756+0.388+0.884Soft11
Brad Binder1:29.777+0.409+0.327Soft10
Enea Bastianini1:29.782+0.414+0.319Soft10
Marco Bezzecchi1:29.799+0.431+0.553Soft12
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:30.061+0.693+0.320Soft12
Jorge Martin1:30.105+0.737+0.457Soft10
Johann Zarco1:30.216+0.848+0.344Medium12
Fabio Quartararo1:30.222+0.854+0.275Soft10
Luca Marini1:30.339+0.971+0.308Soft11
Franco Morbidelli1:30.350+0.982+0.512Soft12
Joan Mir1:30.358+0.990+0.562Soft11
Ai Ogura1:30.491+1.123+0.300Soft10
Alex Rins1:30.530+1.162+0.217Soft10
Jack Miller1:30.575+1.207+0.105Soft12
Francesco Bagnaia1:30.597+1.229+0.221Soft6
Miguel Oliveira1:30.833+1.465+0.193Soft12

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · A. MarquezS3 · AldeguerS4 · Bezzecchi

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,347 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

62/100
Position index
11%
Pole wins
67%
Front row on the podium
0.77
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 12% and 65%; 9 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

75
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
27/28
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
3.232 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P22 to P14.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Maverick Viñales (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2024 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:29.989—+0.221Medium25
Jorge Martin1:30.256+0.267+0.457Medium23
Enea Bastianini1:30.385+0.396+0.319Medium25
Marc Marquez1:30.636+0.647+0.210Medium24
Brad Binder1:30.894+0.905+0.327Medium26
Franco Morbidelli1:30.922+0.933+0.512Medium24
Marco Bezzecchi1:30.942+0.953+0.553Medium24
Maverick Viñales1:31.093+1.104+0.292Medium24
Miguel Oliveira1:31.155+1.166+0.193Medium23
Pol Espargaro1:31.162+1.173+0.406Medium24

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2026Pedro AcostaKTM
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Brad BinderKTM
  • 2020Andrea DoviziosoDucati
  • 2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20261/225%
20252/2010%
20242/248%
20233/2313%
20225/2520%
20213/2015%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium100%+1.44%+0.0481311.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.