Round 13 of 20 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2024

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

06.09 – 08.09.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	41:52.083	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.102	20
3	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.428	16
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.185	13
5	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+16.725	11
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+17.582	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+17.642	9
8	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+19.327	8
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+27.946	7
10	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+38.781	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+46.386	5
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+62.637	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+70.717	3
14	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	+77.547	2
15	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+0.000	1
16	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.000	0
17	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+0.000	0
18	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+0.000	0
19	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+0.000	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:56.502	12
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.495	9
3	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.832	7
4	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.041	6
5	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.469	5
6	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+6.796	4
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.979	3
8	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.726	2
9	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+11.015	1
10	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+11.352	0
11	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.658	0
12	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.083	0
13	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+21.119	0
14	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+21.542	0
15	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+21.995	0
16	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+23.442	0
17	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+24.280	0
18	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+24.747	0
19	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+24.873	0
20	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+25.154	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 28%	Jorge Martin · 12% · from P4	0.95 / 0.95	1.6 / 1.6
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 26%	Marc Marquez · 2% · from P9	0.53 / 0.53	3.6 / 3.6
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 31%	Marc Marquez · 2% · from P9	0.56 / 0.53	3.7 / 3.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.969	—	+0.221	Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:32.101	+0.132	+0.210	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:32.278	+0.309	+0.319	Soft	22
Jorge Martin	1:32.584	+0.615	+0.457	Soft	18
Pedro Acosta	1:32.719	+0.750	+0.448	Soft	18
Maverick Viñales	1:32.768	+0.799	+0.292	Soft	19
Brad Binder	1:32.822	+0.853	+0.327	Medium	20
Alex Marquez	1:32.828	+0.859	+0.356	Soft	24
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.871	+0.902	+0.553	Soft	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.905	+0.936	+0.275	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.978	+1.009	+0.320	Soft	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.050	+1.081	+0.209	Soft	6
Jack Miller	1:33.071	+1.102	+0.105	Soft	25
Augusto Fernandez	1:33.294	+1.325	+0.437	Medium	4
Raul Fernandez	1:33.357	+1.388	+0.667	Soft	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.564	+1.595	+0.193	Medium	22
Pol Espargaro	1:33.664	+1.695	+0.406	Soft	24
Alex Rins	1:34.080	+2.111	+0.217	Soft	20
Johann Zarco	1:34.082	+2.113	+0.344	Soft	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:34.261	+2.292	+0.359	Soft	21
Stefan Bradl	1:34.760	+2.791	+0.530	Soft	24

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

20/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

3.102 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P9 to P1.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Marco Bezzecchi (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.495 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P9 to P5.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Fabio Quartararo (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:05:03	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:06:59	Stefan Bradl	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:08:29	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:13:17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:19:00	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:20:50	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to incorrect long lap execution
Sprint	15:23:08		Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	13:59:53		Red flag	White flag displayed
Race	14:05:44		Red flag	TPMS not active due to white flag
Race	14:08:06	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:29	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:13:17	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:27:21	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Race: 6 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 14 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	12	8	+4
Augusto Fernandez	17	15	+2
Marc Marquez	9	7	+2
Marco Bezzecchi	3	9	−6
Maverick Viñales	11	16	−5
Alex Marquez	7	11	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marc Marquez	9→1	+7.0
Enea Bastianini	8→3	+4.3
Miguel Oliveira	18→11	+2.8
Maverick Viñales	11→16	−6.7
Jorge Martin	4→15	−10.2
Pedro Acosta	5→17	−11.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	73%	+1.45%	−0.029	0	1	11.8
Medium	27%	+1.29%	−0.021	1	2	5.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

28.3 °C

Air

max 29.5 °C

75%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

5 km/h

Wind

gusts 18 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 06.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:31.707	—	20	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:32.870	+0.13%	6	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:31.744	+0.037	18	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.138	+1.50%	7	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	01:31.920	+0.213	20	297.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.949	+0.242	20	295.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.976	+0.269	23	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:32.749	—	17	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.098	+0.391	18	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.385	+0.69%	4	Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:32.135	+0.428	21	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.365	+1.74%	5	Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.169	+0.462	16	295.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Maverick Viñales	01:32.286	+0.579	21	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:32.804	+0.06%	11	Medium
10	Pedro Acosta	01:32.354	+0.647	21	301.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.178	+0.46%	7	Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:32.426	+0.719	21	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.912	+2.33%	4	Medium
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.453	+0.746	22	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:34.119	+1.48%	5	Medium
13	Enea Bastianini	01:32.468	+0.761	20	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.696	+1.02%	11	Medium
14	Johann Zarco	01:32.486	+0.779	20	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:34.092	+1.45%	5	Medium
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.595	+0.888	19	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:33.113	+0.39%	6	Medium
16	Alex Marquez	01:32.616	+0.909	19	294.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:32.622	+0.915	20	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.419	+1.80%	5	Medium
18	Luca Marini	01:32.824	+1.117	22	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.358	+1.74%	10	Medium
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:33.033	+1.326	18	291.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.046	+1.339	20	293.4	Soft / Medium	1:34.095	+1.45%	5	Medium
21	Raul Fernandez	01:33.163	+1.456	20	293.4	Soft / Medium	1:33.516	+0.83%	7	Medium
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.267	+1.560	18	295.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Stefan Bradl	01:34.400	+2.693	18	291.8	Soft / Medium	1:35.649	+3.13%	5	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Practice · 06.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.685	—	23	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:30.870	+0.185	27	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:30.966	+0.281	27	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.311	+0.47%	4	Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.967	+0.282	25	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.581	+0.76%	5	Medium
5	Enea Bastianini	01:31.067	+0.382	23	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Pedro Acosta	01:31.203	+0.518	24	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.880	—	10	Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.229	+0.544	27	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.788	+0.99%	13	Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:31.301	+0.616	27	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.459	+0.63%	7	Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.313	+0.628	30	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.179	+0.33%	9	Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:31.320	+0.635	27	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.818	+1.02%	10	Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:31.422	+0.737	23	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.433	+0.748	20	294.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Pol Espargaro	01:31.434	+0.749	19	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.724	+1.039	25	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Johann Zarco	01:31.735	+1.050	24	295.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.779	+1.094	22	290.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Rins	01:31.886	+1.201	24	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:34.546	+2.90%	6	Soft
18	Alex Marquez	01:31.908	+1.223	25	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:32.761	+0.96%	12	Medium
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.961	+1.276	23	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.074	+2.39%	5	Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.208	+1.523	25	291.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Raul Fernandez	01:32.227	+1.542	20	295.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Luca Marini	01:32.388	+1.703	24	294.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Stefan Bradl	01:33.816	+3.131	20	291.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 07.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.237	—	17	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.332	+0.095	14	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:31.385	+0.148	15	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Enea Bastianini	01:31.390	+0.153	12	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.768	+0.26%	5	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.394	+0.157	15	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.533	—	5	Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:31.568	+0.331	12	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Marc Marquez	01:31.590	+0.353	14	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Pedro Acosta	01:31.636	+0.399	19	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.027	+0.54%	11	Soft
9	Alex Marquez	01:31.827	+0.590	14	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.832	+1.42%	5	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.833	+0.596	11	299.1	Medium / Soft	1:32.347	+0.89%	5	Soft
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.834	+0.597	12	291.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.136	+0.66%	5	Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:31.840	+0.603	13	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.353	+0.90%	5	Soft
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.911	+0.674	10	291.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.950	+0.713	14	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Jack Miller	01:31.995	+0.758	18	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.365	+0.91%	10	Soft
16	Maverick Viñales	01:32.037	+0.800	14	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.940	+1.54%	5	Soft
17	Alex Rins	01:32.175	+0.938	14	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.232	+0.995	14	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.657	+1.23%	9	Soft
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.405	+1.168	14	293.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Johann Zarco	01:32.490	+1.253	14	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Luca Marini	01:32.550	+1.313	12	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Raul Fernandez	01:32.848	+1.611	11	295.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Stefan Bradl	01:33.615	+2.378	10	294.2	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 07.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Marquez	01:30.903	—	7	294.2	Medium / Soft
2	Brad Binder	01:30.908	+0.005	8	295.8	Medium / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.101	+0.198	8	295.8	Medium / Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.260	+0.357	8	292.6	Medium / Soft
5	Pol Espargaro	01:31.471	+0.568	5	295.0	Medium / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:31.485	+0.582	8	295.8	Medium / Soft
7	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.538	+0.635	8	296.7	Medium / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.543	+0.640	8	298.3	Medium / Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	01:31.591	+0.688	8	295.8	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:31.721	+0.818	8	291.8	Medium / Soft
11	Luca Marini	01:31.923	+1.020	8	295.0	Medium / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.071	+1.168	8	291.8	Soft / Soft
13	Stefan Bradl	01:32.972	+2.069	8	288.0	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 07.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.304	—	7	298.3	Medium / Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.589	+0.285	9	297.5	Medium / Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.609	+0.305	9	297.5	Medium / Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:30.645	+0.341	9	303.3	Medium / Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:30.656	+0.352	9	300.0	Medium / Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:30.748	+0.444	9	298.3	Medium / Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:30.878	+0.574	9	297.5	Medium / Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:30.900	+0.596	9	299.1	Medium / Soft
9	Marc Marquez	01:30.929	+0.625	5	296.7	Medium / Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.054	+0.750	9	294.2	Medium / Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:31.155	+0.851	6	295.0	Medium / Soft
12	Jack Miller	01:31.202	+0.898	9	297.5	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 07.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	19:56.502	12	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.518	—	10	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+1.495	9	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.583	+0.07%	10	Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	+1.832	7	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.694	+0.19%	10	Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	+2.041	6	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.654	+0.15%	10	Soft
5	Marc Marquez	+6.469	5	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.044	+0.58%	11	Soft
6	Pedro Acosta	+6.796	4	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.006	+0.53%	10	Soft
7	Brad Binder	+9.979	3	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.382	+0.94%	10	Soft
8	Jack Miller	+10.726	2	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.412	+0.98%	10	Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	+11.015	1	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.272	+0.82%	10	Soft
10	Alex Marquez	+11.352	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.273	+0.83%	10	Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	+11.658	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.194	+0.74%	10	Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	+12.083	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.044	+0.58%	11	Soft
13	Johann Zarco	+21.119	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.196	+1.83%	11	Soft
14	Pol Espargaro	+21.542	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.955	+1.57%	9	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	+21.995	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.958	+1.57%	11	Soft
16	Augusto Fernandez	+23.442	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.608	+1.19%	8	Soft
17	Raul Fernandez	+24.280	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.185	+1.82%	11	Soft
18	Luca Marini	+24.747	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.158	+1.79%	11	Soft
19	Alex Rins	+24.873	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.226	+1.87%	11	Soft
20	Takaaki Nakagami	+25.154	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.142	+1.78%	10	Soft
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	6	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	4	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	2	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 08.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.687	—	6	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:31.725	+0.038	5	295.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:31.805	+0.118	6	299.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Maverick Viñales	01:31.880	+0.193	7	298.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.923	+0.236	7	293.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Alex Marquez	01:31.946	+0.259	7	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Pedro Acosta	01:32.056	+0.369	7	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Jack Miller	01:32.274	+0.587	7	297.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Enea Bastianini	01:32.351	+0.664	6	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.515	+0.828	7	300.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Brad Binder	01:32.520	+0.833	7	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.521	+0.834	6	295.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Alex Rins	01:32.571	+0.884	7	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:33.021	—	4	Medium
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.575	+0.888	7	295.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.693	+1.006	7	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.728	+1.041	7	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.732	+1.045	6	296.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	01:32.921	+1.234	6	291.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Luca Marini	01:32.951	+1.264	7	296.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Pol Espargaro	01:32.993	+1.306	6	293.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Johann Zarco	01:33.360	+1.673	7	295.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.466	+1.779	6	292.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Stefan Bradl	01:34.354	+2.667	6	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—

Race · 08.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:52.083	25	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.101	+0.14%	23	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+3.102	20	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.969	—	23	Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	+5.428	16	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.278	+0.34%	22	Soft
4	Brad Binder	+14.185	13	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.822	+0.93%	20	Medium
5	Marco Bezzecchi	+16.725	11	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.871	+0.98%	21	Soft
6	Alex Marquez	+17.582	10	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.828	+0.93%	24	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	+17.642	9	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.905	+1.02%	21	Medium
8	Jack Miller	+19.327	8	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.071	+1.20%	25	Soft
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+27.946	7	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.978	+1.10%	20	Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	+38.781	6	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.664	+1.84%	24	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	+46.386	5	27	Medium / Medium	1:33.564	+1.73%	22	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	+62.637	4	27	Medium / Soft	1:34.082	+2.30%	21	Soft
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+70.717	3	27	Medium / Soft	1:34.261	+2.49%	21	Soft
14	Stefan Bradl	+77.547	2	27	Medium / Soft	1:34.760	+3.04%	24	Soft
15	Jorge Martin	+0.000	1	26	Medium / Medium	1:32.584	+0.67%	18	Soft
16	Maverick Viñales	+0.000	0	26	Medium / Soft	1:32.768	+0.87%	19	Soft
17	Pedro Acosta	+0.000	0	26	Medium / Soft	1:32.719	+0.82%	18	Soft
18	Raul Fernandez	+0.000	0	26	Medium / Soft	1:33.357	+1.51%	19	Soft
19	Alex Rins	+0.000	0	26	Medium / Soft	1:34.080	+2.30%	20	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	14	Medium / Soft	1:33.050	+1.18%	6	Soft
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	6	Medium / Medium	1:33.294	+1.44%	4	Medium
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	6	Medium / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.739	—	+0.221	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:32.089*	+0.350	+0.292	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.323	+0.584	+0.275	Medium	5
Alex Marquez	1:32.338*	+0.599	+0.356	Medium	4
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.521	+0.782	+0.209	Medium	5
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.793	+1.054	+0.193	Medium	8
Alex Rins	1:32.842*	+1.103	+0.217	Medium	3
Johann Zarco	1:32.947*	+1.208	+0.344	Medium	3
Luca Marini	1:33.300*	+1.561	+0.308	Medium	3
Raul Fernandez	1:33.774*	+2.035	+0.667	Medium	4
Stefan Bradl	1:34.971*	+3.232	+0.530	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pol Espargaro	56%	5
2	Brad Binder	42%	2 ✓
3	Aleix Espargaro	30%	3
4	Alex Marquez	20%	1 ✓
5	Miguel Oliveira	19%	8
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	10%	4
7	Alex Rins	7%	10
8	Johann Zarco	4%	6
9	Augusto Fernandez	3%	7
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	12
11	Raul Fernandez	4%	9
12	Luca Marini	2%	11
13	Stefan Bradl	1%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	35%	64%	88%	1
2	Franco Morbidelli	22%	51%	80%	2
3	Marco Bezzecchi	14%	46%	76%	3
4	Jorge Martin	5%	33%	67%	4
5	Enea Bastianini	5%	25%	53%	8
6	Marc Marquez	6%	22%	55%	9
7	Pedro Acosta	2%	12%	40%	5
8	Fabio Quartararo	3%	15%	38%	10
9	Alex Marquez	3%	9%	30%	7
10	Maverick Viñales	3%	9%	26%	11
11	Brad Binder	3%	10%	29%	6
12	Jack Miller	1%	4%	20%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Luca Marini	21	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Takaaki Nakagami	21	22	+1
Race	Stefan Bradl	22	23	+1

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	28%	58%	74%	86%	13%	2
Franco Morbidelli	2	20%	55%	75%	90%	8%	3
Marco Bezzecchi	3	13%	42%	61%	81%	16%	—
Jorge Martin	4	12%	40%	64%	90%	5%	1
Pedro Acosta	5	8%	30%	55%	89%	4%	6
Brad Binder	6	6%	23%	46%	82%	10%	7
Alex Marquez	7	4%	15%	33%	75%	14%	10
Enea Bastianini	8	3%	11%	27%	70%	13%	4
Marc Marquez	9	2%	7%	18%	64%	14%	5
Fabio Quartararo	10	2%	5%	13%	58%	10%	9
Maverick Viñales	11	1%	4%	11%	54%	8%	11
Jack Miller	12	1%	3%	7%	45%	5%	8
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	2%	4%	28%	27%	12
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	1%	2%	4%	25%	16%	—
Pol Espargaro	15	0%	1%	2%	19%	15%	14
Johann Zarco	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	18%	13
Augusto Fernandez	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	16%	16
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	14%	15
Raul Fernandez	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	5%	17
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	20%	19
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	10%	20
Stefan Bradl	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	24%	—
Luca Marini	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	31%	58%	69%	74%	24%	2
Franco Morbidelli	2	16%	48%	68%	82%	16%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	3	16%	49%	69%	83%	16%	5
Jorge Martin	4	21%	54%	69%	77%	22%	15
Pedro Acosta	5	5%	24%	48%	79%	18%	17
Brad Binder	6	1%	6%	19%	69%	14%	4
Alex Marquez	7	1%	7%	20%	64%	23%	6
Enea Bastianini	8	7%	29%	54%	81%	17%	3
Marc Marquez	9	2%	12%	32%	75%	17%	1
Fabio Quartararo	10	0%	4%	15%	67%	13%	7
Maverick Viñales	11	0%	4%	16%	66%	13%	16
Jack Miller	12	0%	1%	4%	35%	25%	8
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	3%	12%	55%	23%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	0%	1%	3%	39%	16%	9
Pol Espargaro	15	0%	0%	1%	15%	20%	10
Johann Zarco	16	0%	0%	0%	11%	18%	12
Augusto Fernandez	17	0%	0%	0%	14%	21%	—
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	0%	9%	22%	11
Raul Fernandez	19	0%	0%	0%	2%	22%	18
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	22%	19
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%	13
Stefan Bradl	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	18%	14
Luca Marini	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	36% → 54%	+18	11% → 21%
Enea Bastianini	14% → 29%	+15	3% → 7%
Francesco Bagnaia	51% → 58%	+7	26% → 31%
Dropping
Brad Binder	24% → 6%	−18	6% → 1%
Alex Marquez	17% → 7%	−10	4% → 1%
Pedro Acosta	29% → 24%	−5	7% → 5%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:31.518	—	+0.457	Soft	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.583	+0.065	+0.221	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:31.654	+0.136	+0.319	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.694	+0.176	+0.512	Soft	10
Pedro Acosta	1:32.006	+0.488	+0.448	Soft	10
Marc Marquez	1:32.044	+0.526	+0.210	Soft	11
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.044	+0.526	+0.209	Soft	11
Maverick Viñales	1:32.194	+0.676	+0.292	Soft	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.272	+0.754	+0.275	Soft	10
Alex Marquez	1:32.273	+0.755	+0.356	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:32.382	+0.864	+0.327	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:32.412	+0.894	+0.105	Soft	10
Augusto Fernandez	1:32.608	+1.090	+0.437	Soft	8
Pol Espargaro	1:32.955	+1.437	+0.406	Soft	9
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.958	+1.440	+0.193	Soft	11
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.142	+1.624	+0.359	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:33.158	+1.640	+0.308	Soft	11
Raul Fernandez	1:33.185	+1.667	+0.667	Soft	11
Johann Zarco	1:33.196	+1.678	+0.344	Soft	11
Alex Rins	1:33.226	+1.708	+0.217	Soft	11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.37%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Jack Miller +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%	Raul Fernandez +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.25%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.39%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%
S2	Jorge Martin	Daniel Pedrosa +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.34%	Enea Bastianini +0.55%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.14%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S4	Jack Miller	Johann Zarco +0.40%	Fabio Quartararo +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Enea Bastianini +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.18%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Pol Espargaro +0.22%	Miguel Oliveira +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Pol Espargaro +0.59%
S4	Jack Miller +0.17%	Miguel Oliveira +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.62%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%	Maverick Viñales +0.53%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Valentino Rossi +0.52%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pol Espargaro +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.32%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.54%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Cal Crutchlow +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.45%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.19%	Jack Miller +0.20%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.73

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	299	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	276	−23
3	Marc Marquez	229	−70
4	Enea Bastianini	228	−71
5	Pedro Acosta	148	−151
6	Brad Binder	145	−154

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.350 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P16 to P10.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Marco Bezzecchi (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:32.146	—	+0.457	Medium	22
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.190	+0.044	+0.553	Medium	25
Daniel Pedrosa	1:32.238	+0.092	+0.089	Medium	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.265	+0.119	+0.221	Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:32.362	+0.216	+0.327	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:32.430	+0.284	+0.344	Medium	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.445	+0.299	+0.193	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:32.458	+0.312	+0.292	Medium	22
Raul Fernandez	1:32.474	+0.328	+0.667	Medium	22
Marc Marquez	1:32.485	+0.339	+0.210	Soft	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/21	33%
2025	7/23	30%
2024	3/22	14%
2023	4/23	17%
2022	4/25	16%
2021	3/24	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	83%	+0.39%	−0.006	1	3	9.1
Soft	17%	+1.27%	+0.006	0	0	14.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.