Round 14 of 20 Aftermath

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2024

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli Italy

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

20.09 – 22.09.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:14.653	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.002	20
3	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+7.848	16
4	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+9.200	13
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+13.601	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+15.484	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+20.922	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+22.795	8
9	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+27.704	7
10	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+31.891	6
11	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+33.062	5
12	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+35.411	4
13	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+36.335	3
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+37.395	2
15	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+38.909	1
16	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+40.454	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+46.394	0
18	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+47.755	0
19	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+85.918	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:50.237	12
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+0.285	9
3	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.319	7
4	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+5.386	6
5	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+6.580	5
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.143	4
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+8.405	3
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+8.965	2
9	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+9.271	1
10	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+9.538	0
11	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+11.542	0
12	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.049	0
13	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+16.566	0
14	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+19.411	0
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+20.101	0
16	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+20.598	0
17	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+20.742	0
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+22.819	0
19	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+25.394	0
20	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+25.431	0
21	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+27.208	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 29% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 29% · from P1	0.88 / 0.88	2.5 / 2.6
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 25%	Enea Bastianini · 16% · from P3	0.65 / 0.65	2.8 / 2.9
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 32%	Enea Bastianini · 22% · from P3	0.71 / 0.65	2.6 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:31.324	—	+0.457	Medium	21
Enea Bastianini	1:31.402	+0.078	+0.319	Medium	24
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.524	+0.200	+0.221	Medium	17
Marc Marquez	1:31.661	+0.337	+0.210	Medium	25
Pedro Acosta	1:31.705	+0.381	+0.448	Medium	5
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.736	+0.412	+0.553	Soft	22
Maverick Viñales	1:31.764	+0.440	+0.292	Medium	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.788	+0.464	+0.512	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.789	+0.465	+0.275	Medium	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.068	+0.744	+0.209	Medium	24
Alex Marquez	1:32.326	+1.002	+0.356	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.422	+1.098	+0.320	Medium	20
Raul Fernandez	1:32.588	+1.264	+0.667	Medium	24
Joan Mir	1:32.590	+1.266	+0.562	Medium	25
Johann Zarco	1:32.591	+1.267	+0.344	Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.591	+1.267	+0.193	Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:32.634	+1.310	+0.327	Medium	22
Luca Marini	1:32.679	+1.355	+0.308	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:32.714	+1.390	+0.105	Medium	24
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.874	+1.550	+0.359	Medium	23
Augusto Fernandez	1:33.084	+1.760	+0.437	Medium	23

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

1/27

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

5.002 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P21 to P9.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Jorge Martin (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

6/13

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.285 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P21 to P14.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:17:28	Joan Mir	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:20:08	Raul Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to shortcut at T1 - T2
Sprint	15:20:10	Joan Mir	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:22:28		Long lap	Long lap penalty
Sprint			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 8 seconds penalty for rider #49 for Technical regulations infringement.
Race	13:04:08	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:15:53	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:33:20	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:37:55	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	13:40:26	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED

Race: 7 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 14 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	19	12	+7
Alex Marquez	21	16	+5
Augusto Fernandez	18	15	+3
Raul Fernandez	14	20	−6
Joan Mir	16	21	−5
Luca Marini	15	17	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Marquez	21→9	+6.7
Marc Marquez	7→3	+3.7
Franco Morbidelli	10→5	+3.6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13→14	−3.5
Augusto Fernandez	18→18	−4.2
Brad Binder	4→19	−14.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	95%	+1.15%	−0.001	1	3	10.3
Soft	5%	+0.45%	+0.003	0	0	4.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

21.9 °C

Air

max 22.2 °C

68%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 16 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 20.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:32.082	—	10	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.582	+0.24%	6	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:32.145	+0.063	11	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.060	+0.75%	9	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.268	+0.186	10	296.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.373	+0.291	12	298.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:32.491	+0.409	15	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.375	+1.09%	11	Medium
6	Alex Marquez	01:32.546	+0.464	10	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.659	+0.32%	7	Medium
7	Pedro Acosta	01:32.618	+0.536	12	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:33.357	—	7	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:32.654	+0.572	19	298.3	Soft / Soft	1:35.042	+1.81%	8	Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.741	+0.659	15	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:33.732	+0.40%	8	Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:32.748	+0.666	16	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.149	+0.85%	9	Medium
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.823	+0.741	13	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.245	+0.95%	9	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	01:32.825	+0.743	11	296.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.910	+0.828	12	296.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Raul Fernandez	01:33.133	+1.051	12	293.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:33.237	+1.155	15	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.093	+0.79%	7	Medium
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:33.331	+1.249	9	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:33.631	+0.29%	5	Medium
17	Luca Marini	01:33.390	+1.308	11	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.948	+1.70%	8	Medium
18	Johann Zarco	01:33.430	+1.348	10	293.4	Soft / Medium	1:34.158	+0.86%	8	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.550	+1.468	10	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:35.016	+1.78%	5	Medium
20	Joan Mir	01:33.767	+1.685	12	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:35.410	+2.20%	5	Medium
21	Marco Bezzecchi	01:33.878	+1.796	14	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:36.690	+3.57%	4	Medium
22	Alex Rins	01:37.834	+5.752	3	288.7	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 20.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.286	—	23	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Jorge Martin	01:30.484	+0.198	22	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:30.585	+0.299	25	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Enea Bastianini	01:30.607	+0.321	27	300.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.750	+0.15%	8	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.886	+0.600	26	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:31.613	—	5	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.932	+0.646	26	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.664	+1.15%	5	Medium
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.964	+0.678	26	299.1	Medium / Soft	1:31.928	+0.34%	12	Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	01:30.990	+0.704	26	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:31.685	+0.08%	5	Medium
9	Pedro Acosta	01:30.991	+0.705	21	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.167	+0.881	24	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.542	+1.01%	5	Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:31.217	+0.931	23	297.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.123	+1.65%	5	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	01:31.250	+0.964	25	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.393	+1.107	17	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:32.505	+0.97%	5	Medium
14	Alex Marquez	01:31.513	+1.227	25	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:31.972	+0.39%	9	Medium
15	Brad Binder	01:31.648	+1.362	22	298.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.802	+1.30%	5	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.668	+1.382	17	298.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.058	+0.49%	5	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	01:31.720	+1.434	25	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Luca Marini	01:31.765	+1.479	26	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.671	+1.16%	5	Medium
19	Joan Mir	01:31.924	+1.638	25	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.855	+1.36%	5	Medium
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.100	+1.814	20	297.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.504	+0.97%	6	Soft
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.210	+1.924	24	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Alex Rins		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP2 · 21.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pedro Acosta	01:31.451	—	13	301.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.455	+0.004	15	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.918	+0.20%	11	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.472	+0.021	9	300.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	01:31.490	+0.039	10	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.323	+0.65%	5	Soft
5	Jorge Martin	01:31.575	+0.124	15	302.5	Medium / Soft	1:31.731	—	5	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:31.725	+0.274	14	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.842	+0.391	15	302.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.168	+0.48%	5	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:31.952	+0.501	12	300.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Raul Fernandez	01:32.100	+0.649	13	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.594	+0.94%	5	Soft
10	Brad Binder	01:32.102	+0.651	13	301.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.950	+1.33%	4	Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.117	+0.666	13	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.241	+0.790	15	298.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.243	+0.792	16	302.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Johann Zarco	01:32.276	+0.825	12	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.502	+1.93%	5	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.332	+0.881	13	300.0	Medium / Soft	1:35.256	+3.84%	5	Soft
16	Luca Marini	01:32.428	+0.977	13	297.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Joan Mir	01:32.438	+0.987	12	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Alex Marquez	01:32.474	+1.023	13	300.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Jack Miller	01:32.505	+1.054	12	300.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.583	+1.132	10	295.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.605	+1.154	14	296.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Alex Rins	01:33.179	+1.728	13	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 21.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Brad Binder	01:31.070	—	7	298.3	Medium / Soft
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.146	+0.076	8	300.8	Medium / Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.285	+0.215	8	298.3	Medium / Soft
4	Raul Fernandez	01:31.402	+0.332	8	298.3	Medium / Soft
5	Luca Marini	01:31.428	+0.358	8	297.5	Medium / Soft
6	Joan Mir	01:31.450	+0.380	8	301.6	Medium / Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:31.501	+0.431	8	300.0	Medium / Soft
8	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.554	+0.484	6	297.5	Soft / Soft
9	Jack Miller	01:31.695	+0.625	8	300.0	Soft / Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.061	+0.991	9	295.8	Soft / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:32.332	+1.262	7	299.1	Soft / Soft
Retired	Alex Rins		—	0	0.0	— / —

Q2 · 21.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.031	—	8	301.6	Medium / Soft
2	Jorge Martin	01:30.245	+0.214	8	304.2	Medium / Soft
3	Enea Bastianini	01:30.564	+0.533	8	299.1	Medium / Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:30.636	+0.605	8	302.5	Medium / Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	01:30.731	+0.700	8	303.3	Medium / Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.837	+0.806	8	305.0	Medium / Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:30.880	+0.849	7	297.5	Medium / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:30.909	+0.878	8	298.3	Medium / Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.921	+0.890	9	295.0	Medium / Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.932	+0.901	7	301.6	Medium / Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.037	+1.006	8	300.8	Medium / Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.114	+1.083	8	304.2	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 21.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	19:50.237	12	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.067	—	11	Soft
2	Jorge Martin	+0.285	9	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.158	+0.10%	10	Soft
3	Enea Bastianini	+1.319	7	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.173	+0.12%	10	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	+5.386	6	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.286	+0.24%	11	Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	+6.580	5	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.463	+0.44%	10	Soft
6	Brad Binder	+8.143	4	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.639	+0.63%	11	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	+8.405	3	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.647	+0.64%	10	Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	+8.965	2	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.689	+0.68%	11	Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	+9.271	1	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.730	+0.73%	10	Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	+9.538	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.628	+0.62%	10	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	+11.542	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.680	+0.67%	9	Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	+12.049	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.893	+0.91%	10	Soft
13	Alex Marquez	+16.566	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:32.134	+1.17%	10	Medium
14	Jack Miller	+19.411	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.308	+1.36%	11	Soft
15	Luca Marini	+20.101	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.257	+1.31%	11	Soft
16	Johann Zarco	+20.598	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.331	+1.39%	10	Soft
17	Raul Fernandez	+20.742	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.201	+1.25%	11	Soft
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+22.819	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.997	+1.02%	10	Soft
19	Takaaki Nakagami	+25.394	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.736	+1.83%	10	Soft
20	Augusto Fernandez	+25.431	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.685	+1.78%	10	Soft
21	Joan Mir	+27.208	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.438	+1.51%	8	Soft

Warm Up · 22.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:31.519	—	6	302.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.776	+0.257	7	303.3	Soft / Medium	1:34.981	+2.50%	5	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.956	+0.437	7	292.6	Soft / Medium	1:32.668	—	5	Medium
4	Pedro Acosta	01:31.970	+0.451	7	298.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Brad Binder	01:32.006	+0.487	7	300.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:32.141	+0.622	6	300.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Jorge Martin	01:32.220	+0.701	6	305.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.234	+0.715	6	303.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Alex Marquez	01:32.251	+0.732	7	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.652	+1.06%	5	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.442	+0.923	6	299.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Luca Marini	01:32.446	+0.927	7	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:32.857	+0.20%	5	Medium
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.478	+0.959	7	296.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Raul Fernandez	01:32.589	+1.070	6	296.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Joan Mir	01:32.594	+1.075	7	299.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.607	+1.088	7	301.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.619	+1.100	7	302.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Jack Miller	01:32.713	+1.194	7	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:33.690	+1.10%	5	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.834	+1.315	6	294.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.859	+1.340	6	297.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Johann Zarco	01:32.865	+1.346	6	293.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Maverick Viñales	01:43.465	+11.946	4	291.8	Soft / Medium	—			—

Race · 22.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	41:14.653	25	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.402	+0.09%	24	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+5.002	20	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.324	—	21	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	+7.848	16	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.661	+0.37%	25	Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	+9.200	13	27	Medium / Soft	1:31.736	+0.45%	22	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	+13.601	11	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.788	+0.51%	22	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	+15.484	10	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.764	+0.48%	23	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	+20.922	9	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.789	+0.51%	23	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	+22.795	8	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.068	+0.82%	24	Medium
9	Alex Marquez	+27.704	7	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.326	+1.10%	21	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	+31.891	6	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.591	+1.39%	24	Medium
11	Joan Mir	+33.062	5	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.590	+1.39%	25	Medium
12	Luca Marini	+35.411	4	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.679	+1.48%	23	Medium
13	Raul Fernandez	+36.335	3	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.588	+1.38%	24	Medium
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+37.395	2	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.422	+1.20%	20	Medium
15	Johann Zarco	+38.909	1	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.591	+1.39%	21	Medium
16	Jack Miller	+40.454	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.714	+1.52%	24	Medium
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+46.394	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.874	+1.70%	23	Medium
18	Augusto Fernandez	+47.755	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:33.084	+1.93%	23	Medium
19	Brad Binder	+85.918	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.634	+1.43%	22	Medium
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	20	Medium / Medium	1:31.524	+0.22%	17	Medium
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	8	Medium / Medium	1:31.705	+0.42%	5	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:31.208*	—	+0.457	Medium	3
Enea Bastianini	1:31.507	+0.299	+0.319	Medium	5
Marc Marquez	1:31.602	+0.394	+0.210	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:31.685	+0.477	+0.292	Medium	5
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.967*	+0.759	+0.275	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:31.972	+0.764	+0.356	Medium	5
Brad Binder	1:32.220*	+1.012	+0.327	Medium	3
Jack Miller	1:32.531*	+1.323	+0.105	Medium	3
Joan Mir	1:32.594*	+1.386	+0.562	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Johann Zarco	56%	7
2	Brad Binder	42%	1 ✓
3	Raul Fernandez	30%	4
4	Jack Miller	21%	9
5	Miguel Oliveira	19%	2 ✓
6	Alex Marquez	10%	11
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	7%	3
8	Augusto Fernandez	4%	8
9	Luca Marini	3%	5
10	Joan Mir	3%	6
11	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	36%	65%	88%	1
2	Jorge Martin	22%	51%	80%	2
3	Marc Marquez	14%	46%	76%	7
4	Fabio Quartararo	5%	33%	68%	9
5	Pedro Acosta	4%	25%	53%	5
6	Enea Bastianini	6%	22%	55%	3
7	Franco Morbidelli	2%	12%	40%	10
8	Maverick Viñales	3%	15%	38%	8
9	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	9%	30%	6
10	Brad Binder	3%	9%	26%	4
11	Aleix Espargaro	3%	10%	30%	11
12	Miguel Oliveira	1%	4%	20%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Sprint	Alex Rins	22	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Alex Rins	22	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	29%	60%	75%	86%	13%	1
Jorge Martin	2	22%	58%	77%	93%	5%	2
Enea Bastianini	3	15%	45%	65%	84%	12%	3
Brad Binder	4	11%	38%	61%	86%	10%	6
Pedro Acosta	5	7%	29%	55%	90%	4%	5
Marco Bezzecchi	6	5%	19%	40%	75%	18%	8
Marc Marquez	7	4%	16%	35%	76%	14%	4
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	12%	29%	76%	7%	10
Fabio Quartararo	9	1%	7%	18%	68%	10%	7
Franco Morbidelli	10	1%	5%	14%	62%	7%	9
Aleix Espargaro	11	1%	3%	8%	42%	27%	12
Miguel Oliveira	12	1%	3%	7%	41%	14%	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	0%	2%	4%	31%	18%	18
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	1%	3%	29%	5%	17
Luca Marini	15	0%	1%	2%	20%	16%	15
Joan Mir	16	0%	1%	2%	13%	24%	21
Johann Zarco	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	18%	16
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	15%	20
Jack Miller	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	5%	14
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	10%	19
Alex Marquez	21	0%	0%	1%	3%	14%	13
Alex Rins	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	32%	60%	70%	75%	24%	—
Jorge Martin	2	21%	52%	68%	77%	22%	2
Enea Bastianini	3	22%	57%	73%	83%	16%	1
Brad Binder	4	5%	25%	50%	82%	13%	19
Pedro Acosta	5	7%	32%	56%	82%	17%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	6	2%	12%	29%	74%	16%	4
Marc Marquez	7	6%	28%	52%	80%	17%	3
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	18%	41%	81%	13%	6
Fabio Quartararo	9	1%	7%	22%	74%	13%	7
Franco Morbidelli	10	0%	3%	11%	62%	17%	5
Aleix Espargaro	11	0%	2%	6%	47%	23%	8
Miguel Oliveira	12	0%	5%	15%	62%	22%	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	0%	1%	4%	40%	16%	14
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	0%	1%	25%	22%	13
Luca Marini	15	0%	0%	1%	21%	8%	12
Joan Mir	16	0%	0%	0%	8%	30%	11
Johann Zarco	17	0%	0%	0%	9%	18%	15
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	0%	4%	24%	18
Jack Miller	19	0%	0%	0%	6%	25%	16
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	17
Alex Marquez	21	0%	0%	0%	7%	23%	9
Alex Rins	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	22%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Enea Bastianini	45% → 57%	+12	16% → 22%
Marc Marquez	19% → 28%	+9	4% → 6%
Francesco Bagnaia	52% → 60%	+8	25% → 32%
Dropping
Marco Bezzecchi	25% → 12%	−13	6% → 2%
Brad Binder	38% → 25%	−13	11% → 5%
Franco Morbidelli	7% → 3%	−4	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.067	—	+0.221	Soft	11
Jorge Martin	1:31.158	+0.091	+0.457	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:31.173	+0.106	+0.319	Soft	10
Marc Marquez	1:31.286	+0.219	+0.210	Soft	11
Pedro Acosta	1:31.463	+0.396	+0.448	Soft	10
Maverick Viñales	1:31.628	+0.561	+0.292	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:31.639	+0.572	+0.327	Soft	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.647	+0.580	+0.275	Soft	10
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.680	+0.613	+0.193	Soft	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.689	+0.622	+0.553	Soft	11
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.730	+0.663	+0.512	Soft	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.893	+0.826	+0.209	Soft	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.997	+0.930	+0.320	Soft	10
Alex Marquez	1:32.134	+1.067	+0.356	Medium	10
Raul Fernandez	1:32.201	+1.134	+0.667	Soft	11
Luca Marini	1:32.257	+1.190	+0.308	Soft	11
Jack Miller	1:32.308	+1.241	+0.105	Soft	11
Johann Zarco	1:32.331	+1.264	+0.344	Soft	10
Joan Mir	1:32.438	+1.371	+0.562	Soft	8
Augusto Fernandez	1:32.685	+1.618	+0.437	Soft	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.736	+1.669	+0.359	Soft	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.41%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.58%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%	Maverick Viñales +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.50%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.34%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Franco Morbidelli +0.52%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jack Miller +0.63%	Miguel Oliveira +1.09%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.47%	Alex Rins +0.76%
S4	Jack Miller +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.56%	Pol Espargaro +0.79%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Franco Morbidelli +0.30%
S2	Pol Espargaro +0.07%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.40%	Miguel Oliveira +0.50%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.56%
S4	Joan Mir +0.14%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%	Franco Morbidelli +0.56%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

0/100

Position index

33%

Pole wins

33%

Front row on the podium

0.58

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).

Descriptive, over 3 races (2020–2024). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	312	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	305	−7
3	Marc Marquez	259	−53
4	Enea Bastianini	250	−62
5	Brad Binder	161	−151
6	Pedro Acosta	152	−160

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.859 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P16 to P3.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Marc Marquez (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.536	—	+0.221	Medium	20
Marc Marquez	1:32.645	+0.109	+0.210	Soft	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.966	+0.430	+0.193	Soft	19
Pol Espargaro	1:32.972	+0.436	+0.406	Soft	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.051	+0.515	+0.275	Medium	22
Enea Bastianini	1:33.148	+0.612	+0.319	Soft	23
Maverick Viñales	1:33.292	+0.756	+0.292	Soft	24
Johann Zarco	1:33.321	+0.785	+0.344	Medium	20
Alex Rins	1:33.369	+0.833	+0.217	Soft	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.432	+0.896	+0.209	Soft	24

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2024Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2020Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2024	2/21	10%
2021	8/23	35%
2020	7/20	35%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	83%	+1.10%	+0.005	1	3	8.5
Medium	17%	+0.52%	−0.006	0	0	4.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.