Round 18 of 20 Aftermath

Thailand Grand Prix 2024

4.554 m · 26 laps · since 2018

25.10 – 27.10.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	43:38.108	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+2.905	20
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+3.800	16
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+4.636	13
5	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.532	11
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.898	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+8.498	9
8	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+17.672	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+18.588	7
10	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+21.163	6
11	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+22.251	5
12	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+22.859	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+24.531	3
14	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+27.090	2
15	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+30.870	1
16	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+50.021	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:31.131	12
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.357	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.372	7
4	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+5.402	6
5	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+10.140	5
6	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+11.087	4
7	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+11.538	3
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+11.680	2
9	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.692	1
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+14.483	0
11	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.397	0
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+18.544	0
13	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+19.265	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+19.688	0
15	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+19.988	0
16	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+21.298	0
17	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+21.413	0
18	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+23.400	0
19	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+23.979	0
20	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+29.474	0
21	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+39.389	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 30%	Enea Bastianini · 22% · from P2	0.83 / 0.83	2.8 / 2.8
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 27% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 27% · from P1	0.32 / 0.32	3.8 / 3.8
Race (after the sprint)	Enea Bastianini · 30%	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% · from P1	0.28 / 0.32	4.3 / 3.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:40.354	—	+0.210	Wet-Medium	23
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:40.444	+0.090	+0.320	Wet-Medium	24
Jack Miller	1:40.468	+0.114	+0.105	Wet-Medium	24
Pedro Acosta	1:40.492	+0.138	+0.448	Wet-Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:40.524	+0.170	+0.319	Wet-Medium	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.546	+0.192	+0.221	Wet-Medium	24
Maverick Viñales	1:40.688	+0.334	+0.292	Wet-Medium	24
Jorge Martin	1:40.708	+0.354	+0.457	Wet-Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:40.714	+0.360	+0.327	Wet-Medium	24
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.980	+0.626	+0.359	Wet-Medium	23
Luca Marini	1:41.020	+0.666	+0.308	Wet-Medium	24
Fabio Quartararo	1:41.021	+0.667	+0.275	Wet-Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:41.036	+0.682	+0.217	Wet-Medium	20
Johann Zarco	1:41.048	+0.694	+0.344	Wet-Medium	24
Alex Marquez	1:41.101	+0.747	+0.356	Wet-Medium	24
Aleix Espargaro	1:41.124	+0.770	+0.209	Wet-Medium	23
Augusto Fernandez	1:41.156	+0.802	+0.437	Wet-Medium	21
Joan Mir	1:41.375	+1.021	+0.562	Wet-Medium	24
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.506	+1.152	+0.512	Wet-Medium	5
Raul Fernandez	1:41.854	+1.500	+0.667	Wet-Medium	4
Lorenzo Savadori	1:41.864	+1.510	+0.781	Wet-Medium	13

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/26

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

2.905 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jack Miller, from P15 to P5.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Marc Marquez (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

1.357 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Franco Morbidelli, from P11 to P6.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Franco Morbidelli (9 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:07:10	Pedro Acosta	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:17:48	Pedro Acosta	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:37:32	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out on sighting lap
Race	15:00:18	Alex Marquez	Pit-lane start	Starting warm up from pit lane
Race	15:07:31	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:08:27	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:10:05	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Race	15:11:23	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:11:51	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:13:44	Raul Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:15:14	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:16:58	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:25:09	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:32:45	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:34:16	Lorenzo Savadori	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:40:17	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:41:25	Marc Marquez	Position penalty	To drop 1 position due to irresponsible riding
Race	15:42:12	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Sprint: 7 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	13	6	+7
Franco Morbidelli	11	7	+4
Jack Miller	15	11	+4
Enea Bastianini	2	13	−11
Marco Bezzecchi	4	14	−10
Alex Marquez	9	15	−6

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Jack Miller	15→5	+6.8
Brad Binder	13→6	+4.5
Pedro Acosta	7→3	+3.7
Marc Marquez	5→11	−5.6
Fabio Quartararo	6→16	−10.0
Enea Bastianini	2→14	−10.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Medium	100%	+0.67%	−0.036	1	3	8.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.3 °C

Air

max 26.6 °C

88%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 28 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.492	—	20	332.3	Soft / Hard	1:31.006	+0.14%	11	Hard
2	Jorge Martin	01:30.530	+0.038	21	336.4	Soft / Hard	1:30.878	—	8	Hard
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.692	+0.200	20	334.3	Soft / Hard	1:31.111	+0.26%	11	Hard
4	Marc Marquez	01:30.751	+0.259	19	332.3	Hard / Hard	1:31.560	+0.75%	10	Hard
5	Alex Marquez	01:30.849	+0.357	17	329.2	Soft / Medium	1:31.519	+0.71%	5	Hard
6	Enea Bastianini	01:30.860	+0.368	19	334.3	Hard / Hard	1:31.982	+1.22%	11	Hard
7	Pedro Acosta	01:30.906	+0.414	20	335.4	Soft / Hard	1:31.349	+0.52%	14	Hard
8	Jack Miller	01:30.999	+0.507	22	333.3	Hard / Hard	1:31.760	+0.97%	12	Hard
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.022	+0.530	21	329.2	Soft / Hard	1:31.962	+1.19%	11	Hard
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.140	+0.648	20	330.2	Soft / Hard	1:31.401	+0.58%	13	Hard
11	Brad Binder	01:31.147	+0.655	19	331.2	Soft / Hard	1:31.775	+0.99%	12	Hard
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.171	+0.679	19	333.3	Soft / Hard	1:31.666	+0.87%	9	Hard
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.172	+0.680	19	328.2	Soft / Hard	1:31.673	+0.88%	15	Hard
14	Luca Marini	01:31.186	+0.694	21	330.2	Soft / Hard	1:31.434	+0.61%	7	Hard
15	Maverick Viñales	01:31.199	+0.707	18	329.2	Hard / Hard	1:31.505	+0.69%	6	Hard
16	Johann Zarco	01:31.249	+0.757	20	329.2	Soft / Hard	1:32.561	+1.85%	7	Hard
17	Raul Fernandez	01:31.392	+0.900	17	330.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
18	Joan Mir	01:31.420	+0.928	18	328.2	Soft / Hard	—			—
19	Alex Rins	01:31.513	+1.021	20	331.2	Hard / Hard	1:32.838	+2.16%	6	Hard
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.543	+1.051	19	331.2	Soft / Hard	1:32.431	+1.71%	9	Hard
21	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.001	+1.509	4	330.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.580	+2.088	16	323.3	Soft / Hard	1:33.297	+2.66%	6	Hard

Practice · 25.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.165	—	26	330.2	Soft / Medium	1:30.582	+0.15%	5	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:29.275	+0.110	27	338.5	Hard / Medium	1:30.974	+0.58%	16	Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	01:29.327	+0.162	24	337.5	Hard / Medium	1:31.324	+0.97%	6	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.360	+0.195	22	335.4	Hard / Medium	1:30.451	—	5	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:29.506	+0.341	25	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.492	+1.15%	5	Hard
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.549	+0.384	25	334.3	Hard / Medium	1:30.897	+0.49%	5	Medium
7	Pedro Acosta	01:29.602	+0.437	25	336.4	Hard / Medium	1:30.643	+0.21%	12	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	01:29.613	+0.448	24	330.2	Soft / Medium	1:31.467	+1.12%	11	Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.620	+0.455	28	332.3	Soft / Medium	1:30.774	+0.36%	12	Hard
10	Johann Zarco	01:29.682	+0.517	24	332.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
11	Brad Binder	01:29.683	+0.518	25	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.475	+1.13%	11	Medium
12	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.756	+0.591	25	334.3	Hard / Medium	1:30.478	+0.03%	12	Hard
13	Jack Miller	01:29.837	+0.672	24	332.3	Soft / Medium	1:30.877	+0.47%	5	Hard
14	Raul Fernandez	01:29.857	+0.692	25	332.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.236	+0.87%	6	Hard
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.996	+0.831	26	330.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.999	+0.834	22	330.2	Soft / Medium	1:31.571	+1.24%	5	Hard
17	Luca Marini	01:30.138	+0.973	26	332.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.186	+0.81%	5	Medium
18	Alex Rins	01:30.198	+1.033	27	334.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.442	+1.10%	4	Medium
19	Joan Mir	01:30.217	+1.052	25	334.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.891	+1.59%	5	Medium
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.429	+1.264	23	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.296	+0.93%	10	Hard
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.012	+1.847	21	333.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.383	+2.218	12	333.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.744	+1.43%	5	Medium

FP2 · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.888	—	14	331.2	Hard / Hard	1:30.159	—	7	Hard
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.059	+0.171	15	331.2	Hard / Medium	1:31.038	+0.98%	6	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.122	+0.234	15	334.3	Hard / Medium	1:30.786	+0.70%	7	Medium
4	Jorge Martin	01:30.181	+0.293	16	333.3	Hard / Medium	1:30.964	+0.89%	10	Medium
5	Pedro Acosta	01:30.318	+0.430	15	331.2	Hard / Medium	1:31.486	+1.47%	5	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.369	+0.481	13	330.2	Hard / Medium	1:30.961	+0.89%	5	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:30.442	+0.554	13	329.2	Hard / Medium	1:30.963	+0.89%	5	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:30.452	+0.564	14	329.2	Soft / Medium	1:30.958	+0.89%	10	Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.470	+0.582	16	330.2	Hard / Medium	1:30.953	+0.88%	12	Medium
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.480	+0.592	12	330.2	Hard / Medium	1:30.713	+0.61%	6	Medium
11	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.498	+0.610	13	332.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.146	+1.10%	7	Medium
12	Joan Mir	01:30.514	+0.626	14	330.2	Soft / Hard	1:31.115	+1.06%	5	Medium
13	Alex Marquez	01:30.530	+0.642	15	331.2	Hard / Medium	1:30.864	+0.78%	11	Medium
14	Enea Bastianini	01:30.571	+0.683	15	333.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.004	+0.94%	7	Medium
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.673	+0.785	12	332.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.079	+1.02%	5	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.679	+0.791	15	327.2	Soft / Medium	1:31.075	+1.02%	11	Medium
17	Johann Zarco	01:30.758	+0.870	15	329.2	Hard / Medium	1:31.260	+1.22%	11	Medium
18	Brad Binder	01:30.782	+0.894	16	331.2	Hard / Hard	1:31.251	+1.21%	10	Hard
19	Luca Marini	01:31.031	+1.143	14	327.2	Hard / Medium	1:31.421	+1.40%	9	Medium
20	Alex Rins	01:31.210	+1.322	15	328.2	Hard / Medium	1:31.492	+1.48%	10	Medium
21	Raul Fernandez	01:31.234	+1.346	12	326.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.842	+1.954	13	326.2	Soft / Medium	1:32.292	+2.37%	5	Medium

Q1 · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.406	—	9	331.2	Hard / Medium
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.429	+0.023	8	332.3	Soft / Medium
3	Brad Binder	01:29.535	+0.129	9	330.2	Hard / Medium
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.568	+0.162	8	336.4	Soft / Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:29.773	+0.367	8	331.2	Soft / Medium
6	Augusto Fernandez	01:29.828	+0.422	8	332.3	Hard / Medium
7	Alex Rins	01:29.835	+0.429	9	328.2	Hard / Medium
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.903	+0.497	8	328.2	Soft / Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:30.045	+0.639	8	334.3	Hard / Medium
10	Raul Fernandez	01:30.102	+0.696	9	330.2	Hard / Medium
11	Luca Marini	01:30.137	+0.731	8	333.3	Hard / Medium
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.592	+1.186	6	335.4	Soft / Medium

Q2 · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.700	—	8	333.3	Hard / Medium
2	Enea Bastianini	01:28.932	+0.232	9	334.3	Hard / Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:29.130	+0.430	5	334.3	Hard / Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.324	+0.624	9	330.2	Soft / Medium
5	Marc Marquez	01:29.386	+0.686	5	333.3	Hard / Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.408	+0.708	9	334.3	Hard / Medium
7	Pedro Acosta	01:29.419	+0.719	9	340.6	Hard / Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.435	+0.735	5	330.2	Soft / Medium
9	Alex Marquez	01:29.527	+0.827	9	327.2	Soft / Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:29.628	+0.928	8	333.3	Soft / Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.736	+1.036	5	335.4	Hard / Medium
12	Johann Zarco	01:29.797	+1.097	8	335.4	Hard / Medium

Sprint · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	19:31.131	12	13	Hard / Medium	1:29.892	—	11	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+1.357	9	13	Hard / Medium	1:29.960	+0.08%	9	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+2.372	7	13	Hard / Medium	1:29.944	+0.06%	11	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	+5.402	6	13	Hard / Medium	1:30.077	+0.21%	11	Medium
5	Alex Marquez	+10.140	5	13	Soft / Medium	1:30.577	+0.76%	11	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	+11.087	4	13	Hard / Medium	1:30.642	+0.83%	11	Medium
7	Marco Bezzecchi	+11.538	3	13	Soft / Medium	1:30.734	+0.94%	11	Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+11.680	2	13	Soft / Medium	1:30.602	+0.79%	11	Medium
9	Brad Binder	+13.692	1	13	Hard / Medium	1:30.903	+1.13%	10	Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	+14.483	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:30.645	+0.84%	10	Medium
11	Jack Miller	+18.397	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:31.100	+1.34%	11	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	+18.544	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:31.202	+1.46%	11	Medium
13	Joan Mir	+19.265	0	13	Hard / Hard	1:31.250	+1.51%	11	Hard
14	Raul Fernandez	+19.688	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:31.187	+1.44%	11	Medium
15	Aleix Espargaro	+19.988	0	13	Soft / Medium	1:31.309	+1.58%	11	Medium
16	Augusto Fernandez	+21.298	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:31.173	+1.43%	11	Medium
17	Alex Rins	+21.413	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:31.168	+1.42%	10	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	+23.400	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:31.535	+1.83%	11	Medium
19	Luca Marini	+23.979	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:31.544	+1.84%	10	Medium
20	Maverick Viñales	+29.474	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:31.307	+1.57%	9	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	+39.389	0	13	Hard / Medium	1:32.765	+3.20%	10	Medium
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	10	Hard / Medium	1:31.021	+1.26%	7	Medium

Warm Up · 27.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.056	—	6	316.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:39.200	+0.144	6	321.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
3	Luca Marini	01:39.428	+0.372	6	318.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.538	+0.482	6	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
5	Pedro Acosta	01:39.640	+0.584	6	308.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:39.824	+0.768	6	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:39.880	+0.824	6	310.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:40.011	+0.955	6	313.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.060	+1.004	6	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.249	+1.193	6	314.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:40.251	+1.195	6	311.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
12	Alex Marquez	01:40.254	+1.198	6	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.321	+1.265	6	315.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
14	Raul Fernandez	01:40.367	+1.311	5	316.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
15	Alex Rins	01:40.460	+1.404	6	314.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:40.533	+1.477	6	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
17	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.654	+1.598	6	318.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
18	Enea Bastianini	01:40.710	+1.654	6	303.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.857	+1.801	6	318.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
20	Joan Mir	01:41.085	+2.029	6	315.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:42.126	+3.070	6	306.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
22	Augusto Fernandez	01:42.410	+3.354	3	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium

Race · 27.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	43:38.108	25	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.546	+0.19%	24	Wet-Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+2.905	20	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.708	+0.35%	24	Wet-Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	+3.800	16	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.492	+0.14%	24	Wet-Medium
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+4.636	13	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.444	+0.09%	24	Wet-Medium
5	Jack Miller	+5.532	11	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.468	+0.11%	24	Wet-Medium
6	Brad Binder	+5.898	10	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.714	+0.36%	24	Wet-Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	+8.498	9	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.688	+0.33%	24	Wet-Medium
8	Johann Zarco	+17.672	8	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.048	+0.69%	24	Wet-Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	+18.588	7	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.124	+0.77%	23	Wet-Medium
10	Alex Marquez	+21.163	6	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.101	+0.74%	24	Wet-Medium
11	Marc Marquez	+22.251	5	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.354	—	23	Wet-Medium
12	Luca Marini	+22.859	4	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.020	+0.66%	24	Wet-Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+24.531	3	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.980	+0.62%	23	Wet-Medium
14	Enea Bastianini	+27.090	2	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.524	+0.17%	22	Wet-Medium
15	Joan Mir	+30.870	1	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.375	+1.02%	24	Wet-Medium
16	Fabio Quartararo	+50.021	0	26	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.021	+0.67%	23	Wet-Medium
Retired	Alex Rins		0	22	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.036	+0.68%	20	Wet-Medium
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	23	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.156	+0.80%	21	Wet-Medium
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.506	+1.15%	5	Wet-Medium
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	16	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.864	+1.51%	13	Wet-Medium
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.854	+1.50%	4	Wet-Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Quartararo	56%	1 ✓
2	Jack Miller	42%	5
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	29%	2 ✓
4	Brad Binder	20%	3
5	Takaaki Nakagami	19%	8
6	Augusto Fernandez	11%	6
7	Joan Mir	7%	9
8	Raul Fernandez	4%	10
9	Luca Marini	3%	11
10	Aleix Espargaro	3%	4
11	Alex Rins	4%	7
12	Lorenzo Savadori	2%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	36%	65%	87%	5
2	Jorge Martin	22%	51%	80%	3
3	Francesco Bagnaia	14%	46%	76%	1
4	Franco Morbidelli	5%	33%	68%	11
5	Pedro Acosta	4%	25%	53%	7
6	Maverick Viñales	6%	22%	56%	10
7	Enea Bastianini	1%	13%	40%	2
8	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	15%	38%	4
9	Fabio Quartararo	3%	9%	30%	6
10	Alex Marquez	2%	9%	26%	9
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	10%	30%	8
12	Johann Zarco	1%	4%	19%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	30%	60%	75%	86%	12%	3
Enea Bastianini	2	22%	54%	73%	87%	11%	1
Jorge Martin	3	15%	50%	72%	92%	4%	2
Marco Bezzecchi	4	11%	35%	55%	77%	19%	7
Marc Marquez	5	6%	27%	51%	82%	12%	4
Fabio Quartararo	6	5%	21%	45%	81%	9%	10
Pedro Acosta	7	3%	17%	36%	75%	12%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	3%	12%	28%	70%	17%	8
Alex Marquez	9	2%	7%	18%	65%	15%	5
Maverick Viñales	10	2%	6%	15%	61%	9%	20
Franco Morbidelli	11	1%	4%	11%	56%	7%	6
Johann Zarco	12	1%	2%	6%	40%	19%	12
Brad Binder	13	1%	2%	6%	35%	14%	9
Aleix Espargaro	14	0%	1%	3%	23%	26%	15
Jack Miller	15	0%	1%	3%	24%	7%	11
Augusto Fernandez	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	16%	16
Alex Rins	17	0%	1%	2%	10%	17%	17
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	12%	18
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	27%	13
Raul Fernandez	20	0%	0%	1%	5%	4%	14
Luca Marini	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	19
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%	21

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	25%	55%	69%	76%	24%	1
Enea Bastianini	2	30%	63%	76%	82%	17%	14
Jorge Martin	3	21%	54%	71%	79%	21%	2
Marco Bezzecchi	4	4%	23%	48%	83%	15%	—
Marc Marquez	5	9%	36%	61%	81%	17%	11
Fabio Quartararo	6	4%	22%	47%	83%	12%	16
Pedro Acosta	7	1%	6%	19%	65%	23%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	3%	18%	41%	80%	16%	4
Alex Marquez	9	3%	15%	34%	71%	24%	10
Maverick Viñales	10	0%	0%	2%	33%	13%	7
Franco Morbidelli	11	1%	6%	18%	69%	16%	—
Johann Zarco	12	0%	1%	5%	45%	18%	8
Brad Binder	13	0%	2%	8%	57%	13%	6
Aleix Espargaro	14	0%	0%	0%	13%	24%	9
Jack Miller	15	0%	0%	2%	34%	25%	5
Augusto Fernandez	16	0%	0%	1%	17%	26%	—
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	0%	12%	22%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	14%	13
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	32%	15
Raul Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	11%	20%	—
Luca Marini	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	12
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	28%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Enea Bastianini	51% → 63%	+12	21% → 30%
Jorge Martin	42% → 54%	+12	13% → 21%
Alex Marquez	8% → 15%	+6	2% → 3%
Dropping
Marco Bezzecchi	40% → 23%	−17	13% → 4%
Pedro Acosta	18% → 6%	−11	3% → 1%
Maverick Viñales	8% → 0%	−7	2% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:29.892	—	+0.319	Medium	11
Francesco Bagnaia	1:29.944	+0.052	+0.221	Medium	11
Jorge Martin	1:29.960	+0.068	+0.457	Medium	9
Marc Marquez	1:30.077	+0.185	+0.210	Medium	11
Alex Marquez	1:30.577	+0.685	+0.356	Medium	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.602	+0.710	+0.320	Medium	11
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.642	+0.750	+0.512	Medium	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.645	+0.753	+0.275	Medium	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.734	+0.842	+0.553	Medium	11
Brad Binder	1:30.903	+1.011	+0.327	Medium	10
Pedro Acosta	1:31.021	+1.129	+0.448	Medium	7
Jack Miller	1:31.100	+1.208	+0.105	Medium	11
Alex Rins	1:31.168	+1.276	+0.217	Medium	10
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.173	+1.281	+0.437	Medium	11
Raul Fernandez	1:31.187	+1.295	+0.667	Medium	11
Johann Zarco	1:31.202	+1.310	+0.344	Medium	11
Joan Mir	1:31.250	+1.358	+0.562	Hard	11
Maverick Viñales	1:31.307	+1.415	+0.292	Medium	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.309	+1.417	+0.209	Medium	11
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.535	+1.643	+0.359	Medium	11
Luca Marini	1:31.544	+1.652	+0.308	Medium	10
Lorenzo Savadori	1:32.765	+2.873	+0.781	Medium	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,567 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.41%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.37%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.39%
S3	Raul Fernandez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Raul Fernandez +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S2	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.53%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%
S4	Jack Miller +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Franco Morbidelli +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.60%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%
S4	Jorge Martin	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.53%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.42%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.41%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.39%
S4	Valentino Rossi	Andrea Dovizioso +0.50%	Maverick Viñales +0.51%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

19/100

Position index

71%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 60% of the time (between 31% and 83%; 10 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	424	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	404	−20
3	Marc Marquez	345	−79
4	Enea Bastianini	331	−93
5	Brad Binder	192	−232
6	Pedro Acosta	181	−243

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

23/26

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.114 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Jorge Martin (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:31.170	—	+0.356	Medium	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.267	+0.097	+0.221	Hard	23
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.292	+0.122	+0.553	Hard	23
Brad Binder	1:31.328	+0.158	+0.327	Hard	24
Jorge Martin	1:31.364	+0.194	+0.457	Hard	24
Luca Marini	1:31.443	+0.273	+0.308	Hard	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.516	+0.346	+0.320	Hard	22
Maverick Viñales	1:31.525	+0.355	+0.292	Hard	17
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.563	+0.393	+0.275	Hard	20
Marc Marquez	1:31.615	+0.445	+0.210	Hard	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Miguel OliveiraKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 12% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	2/22	9%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	3/21	14%
2022	1/24	4%
2019	2/22	9%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	95%	+0.55%	+0.022	1	3	9.5
Medium	5%	0.00%	−0.091	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.