Round 12 of 20 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2023

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

08.09 – 10.09.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	41:33.421	25
2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+1.350	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+3.812	16
4	Daniel Pedrosa	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.481	13
5	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+10.510	11
6	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+12.274	10
7	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+13.576	9
8	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+14.091	8
9	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+14.982	7
10	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+15.484	6
11	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+15.702	5
12	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+15.878	4
13	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+15.898	3
14	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+23.778	2
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+24.579	1
16	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+31.230	0
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+32.537	0
18	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Team	+35.330	0
19	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+43.601	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Aruba.it Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:58.785	12
2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+1.445	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.582	7
4	Daniel Pedrosa	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.772	6
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.931	5
6	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.062	4
7	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+6.519	3
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+7.893	2
9	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+9.264	1
10	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.318	0
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+13.365	0
12	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+13.788	0
13	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+14.243	0
14	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+14.154	0
15	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+17.421	0
16	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+17.451	0
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+18.133	0
18	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.749	0
19	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+20.403	0
20	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Aruba.it Racing	+21.454	0
21	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+21.962	0
22	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Team	+23.672	0
23	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+36.100	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Jorge Martin · 28% ✓	Jorge Martin · 28% · from P1	0.90 / 0.90	2.4 / 2.4
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 24% ✓	Jorge Martin · 24% · from P1	0.85 / 0.85	2.5 / 2.6
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 36% ✓	Jorge Martin · 36% · from P1	0.81 / 0.85	2.6 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.350 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P16 to P10.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Marco Bezzecchi (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.445 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Pol Espargaro, from P23 to P15.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Francesco Bagnaia (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:10:02	Joan Mir	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:17:37	Joan Mir	Long lap	double long lap penalty - failed to comply with long lap penalty
Sprint	15:17:53	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:19:00	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:20:25	Joan Mir	Long lap	double long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:21:18	Joan Mir	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:21:47	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:22:10	Pol Espargaro	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:22:15	Stefan Bradl	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:29:01		Long lap	long lap penalty
Sprint	15:29:01		Long lap	long lap penalty
Sprint	15:29:01		Long lap	long lap penalty
Sprint	15:29:01		Long lap	long lap penalty
Sprint	15:29:28	Johann Zarco	Position penalty	1 position penalty due to exceeding track limit on the last lap
Race	14:14:29	Brad Binder	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:16:50	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:16:50	Michele Pirro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:18:31	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:25:52	Pol Espargaro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 10 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 16 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Miguel Oliveira	10	7	+3
Pol Espargaro	23	20	+3
Jack Miller	18	16	+2
Aleix Espargaro	6	11	−5
Augusto Fernandez	17	21	−4
Stefan Bradl	15	18	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Miguel Oliveira	10→6	+2.6
Johann Zarco	16→10	+2.5
Raul Fernandez	12→8	+1.9
Aleix Espargaro	6→12	−6.0
Stefan Bradl	15→18	−6.2
Brad Binder	7→14	−7.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	83%	+0.39%	−0.006	1	3	9.1
Soft	17%	+1.27%	+0.006	0	0	14.7

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

27.6 °C

Air

max 27.7 °C

52%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Quartararo	58%	3
2	Michele Pirro	40%	4
3	Pol Espargaro	30%	13
4	Aleix Espargaro	20%	2 ✓
5	Jack Miller	19%	8
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	9%	11
7	Miguel Oliveira	8%	1 ✓
8	Franco Morbidelli	4%	9
9	Johann Zarco	2%	6
10	Stefan Bradl	3%	5
11	Augusto Fernandez	4%	7
12	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	10
13	Joan Mir	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jorge Martin	34%	63%	88%	1
2	Maverick Viñales	24%	51%	81%	4
3	Luca Marini	14%	49%	78%	8
4	Francesco Bagnaia	5%	33%	68%	3
5	Marco Bezzecchi	4%	27%	52%	2
6	Daniel Pedrosa	7%	23%	55%	5
7	Marc Marquez	1%	11%	39%	9
8	Alex Marquez	3%	13%	38%	11
9	Brad Binder	3%	8%	28%	7
10	Raul Fernandez	2%	8%	26%	12
11	Miguel Oliveira	3%	11%	30%	10
12	Aleix Espargaro	1%	4%	19%	6

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	28%	63%	80%	93%	4%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	2	17%	48%	66%	81%	16%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	3	15%	47%	70%	92%	4%	3
Maverick Viñales	4	9%	34%	57%	85%	10%	6
Daniel Pedrosa	5	7%	25%	48%	81%	10%	4
Aleix Espargaro	6	5%	19%	39%	75%	16%	8
Brad Binder	7	5%	17%	36%	82%	4%	5
Luca Marini	8	3%	11%	26%	67%	16%	7
Marc Marquez	9	2%	8%	18%	68%	5%	10
Miguel Oliveira	10	2%	6%	14%	59%	12%	12
Alex Marquez	11	2%	5%	10%	43%	22%	9
Raul Fernandez	12	2%	5%	9%	45%	5%	11
Fabio Quartararo	13	1%	3%	6%	34%	10%	13
Michele Pirro	14	1%	2%	4%	22%	22%	20
Stefan Bradl	15	1%	2%	5%	22%	8%	22
Johann Zarco	16	1%	2%	3%	16%	10%	14
Augusto Fernandez	17	0%	1%	3%	10%	16%	19
Jack Miller	18	0%	1%	2%	8%	10%	15
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	1%	2%	7%	4%	18
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	1%	1%	4%	16%	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	21	0%	1%	1%	3%	10%	17
Joan Mir	22	0%	0%	1%	2%	27%	23
Pol Espargaro	23	0%	0%	1%	2%	19%	16

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	36%	61%	71%	76%	24%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	2	27%	61%	75%	83%	17%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	3	6%	28%	50%	73%	27%	3
Maverick Viñales	4	12%	44%	67%	86%	13%	5
Daniel Pedrosa	5	3%	20%	45%	83%	12%	4
Aleix Espargaro	6	5%	24%	47%	73%	23%	12
Brad Binder	7	8%	35%	60%	84%	13%	14
Luca Marini	8	3%	19%	45%	87%	8%	9
Marc Marquez	9	0%	4%	16%	69%	17%	7
Miguel Oliveira	10	0%	0%	3%	41%	21%	6
Alex Marquez	11	0%	3%	12%	61%	25%	11
Raul Fernandez	12	0%	1%	7%	52%	21%	8
Fabio Quartararo	13	0%	0%	2%	36%	14%	13
Michele Pirro	14	0%	0%	0%	10%	20%	—
Stefan Bradl	15	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	18
Johann Zarco	16	0%	0%	1%	29%	18%	10
Augusto Fernandez	17	0%	0%	0%	9%	7%	16
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	0%	9%	25%	—
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	0%	22%	16%	15
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	15%	19
Fabio Di Giannantonio	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	17
Joan Mir	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	—
Pol Espargaro	23	0%	0%	0%	6%	20%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Brad Binder	19% → 35%	+16	5% → 8%
Marco Bezzecchi	50% → 61%	+11	20% → 27%
Jorge Martin	52% → 61%	+9	24% → 36%
Dropping
Daniel Pedrosa	32% → 20%	−12	8% → 3%
Francesco Bagnaia	38% → 28%	−11	14% → 6%
Miguel Oliveira	7% → 0%	−6	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.37%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Andrea Iannone +0.39%	Jorge Martin +0.41%

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.73

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	260	—
2	Jorge Martin	210	−50
3	Marco Bezzecchi	189	−71
4	Brad Binder	166	−94
5	Aleix Espargaro	154	−106
6	Johann Zarco	141	−119

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

25/27

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.034 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Raul Fernandez, from P25 to P13.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Maverick Viñales (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:32.486	—	+0.319	Medium	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.489	+0.003	+0.221	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.524	+0.038	+0.275	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:32.600	+0.114	+0.292	Medium	22
Luca Marini	1:32.606	+0.120	+0.308	Medium	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.756	+0.270	+0.209	Medium	24
Alex Rins	1:32.832	+0.346	+0.217	Medium	22
Brad Binder	1:32.873	+0.387	+0.327	Medium	22
Jorge Martin	1:32.952	+0.466	+0.457	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:33.117	+0.631	+0.356	Medium	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/21	33%
2025	7/23	30%
2024	3/22	14%
2023	4/23	17%
2022	4/25	16%
2021	3/24	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.71%	−0.020	1	3	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.