Round 13 of 20 Aftermath

Indian Grand Prix 2023

5.010 m · 21 laps

22.09 – 24.09.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	36:59.157	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+8.649	20
3	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+8.855	16
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.643	13
5	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+13.214	11
6	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+14.673	10
7	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+16.946	9
8	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+17.191	8
9	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+19.118	7
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+26.504	6
11	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+28.521	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+29.088	4
13	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+29.728	3
14	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+31.324	2
15	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+35.782	1
16	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+49.242	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:18.836	12
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.389	9
3	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.405	7
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+2.904	6
5	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+3.266	5
6	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+4.327	4
7	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.172	3
8	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+8.798	2
9	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+10.530	1
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+10.826	0
11	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+11.456	0
12	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+15.415	0
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+17.437	0
14	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+23.714	0
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+36.468	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marco Bezzecchi · 26%	Jorge Martin · 22% · from P2	0.82 / 0.82	2.3 / 2.3
Race (after the grid)	Marco Bezzecchi · 30% ✓	Marco Bezzecchi · 30% · from P1	0.84 / 0.84	2.0 / 1.9
Race (after the sprint)	Marco Bezzecchi · 38% ✓	Marco Bezzecchi · 38% · from P1	0.85 / 0.84	1.9 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:45.475	—	+0.553	Soft	19
Francesco Bagnaia	1:45.715	+0.240	+0.221	Soft	11
Jorge Martin	1:45.767	+0.292	+0.457	Medium	19
Marc Marquez	1:45.926	+0.451	+0.210	Soft	18
Fabio Quartararo	1:45.940	+0.465	+0.275	Soft	19
Joan Mir	1:45.991	+0.516	+0.562	Soft	19
Brad Binder	1:46.001	+0.526	+0.327	Soft	19
Aleix Espargaro	1:46.002	+0.527	+0.209	Soft	9
Johann Zarco	1:46.108	+0.633	+0.344	Soft	19
Maverick Viñales	1:46.189	+0.714	+0.292	Soft	18
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:46.270	+0.795	+0.320	Soft	16
Franco Morbidelli	1:46.322	+0.847	+0.512	Soft	19
Raul Fernandez	1:46.644	+1.169	+0.667	Soft	15
Jack Miller	1:46.699	+1.224	+0.105	Soft	19
Takaaki Nakagami	1:46.710	+1.235	+0.359	Soft	19
Pol Espargaro	1:46.926	+1.451	+0.406	Soft	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:46.973	+1.498	+0.193	Soft	18
Stefan Bradl	1:47.070	+1.595	+0.530	Soft	19
Michele Pirro	1:47.676	+2.201	+0.267	Soft	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

21/21

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

8.649 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P12 to P4.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

11/11

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.389 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P13 to P4.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Marc Marquez (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	17:06:16	Luca Marini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	17:06:16	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	17:06:16	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	17:08:49	Miguel Oliveira	Position penalty	To drop 1 position due to overtake under the yellow flag
Sprint	17:11:37	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	17:15:26	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	17:16:35	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	17:20:01	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:41:35	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:43:23	Augusto Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:52:40	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:56:21	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:06:21	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 4 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marco Bezzecchi (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Pol Espargaro	18	12	+6
Franco Morbidelli	15	10	+5
Brad Binder	12	8	+4
Maverick Viñales	8	19	−11
Raul Fernandez	10	14	−4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	13	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	12→4	+5.9
Franco Morbidelli	15→7	+4.8
Fabio Quartararo	7→3	+3.7
Raul Fernandez	10→10	−1.4
Jack Miller	14→14	−2.8
Marc Marquez	5→9	−3.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	95%	+0.75%	+0.031	1	2	8.9
Medium	5%	+0.28%	+0.036	0	1	2.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

32.3 °C

Air

max 33.0 °C

57%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

11 km/h

Wind

gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 22.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.990	—	26	346.1	— / —	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:46.129	+0.139	25	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:47.509	—	5	Medium
3	Brad Binder	01:46.310	+0.320	25	344.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Raul Fernandez	01:46.371	+0.381	24	339.6	— / —	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:46.478	+0.488	25	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:49.531	+1.88%	13	Medium
6	Johann Zarco	01:46.576	+0.586	24	342.8	Soft / Hard	—			—
7	Luca Marini	01:46.609	+0.619	23	342.8	— / —	—			—
8	Jorge Martin	01:46.610	+0.620	24	351.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.778	+0.788	23	338.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Joan Mir	01:46.805	+0.815	24	341.2	— / —	—			—
11	Augusto Fernandez	01:46.827	+0.837	26	339.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.966	+0.976	24	342.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.974	+0.984	24	341.2	— / —	—			—
14	Alex Marquez	01:47.017	+1.027	26	344.4	Soft / Medium	1:48.655	+1.07%	5	Medium
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.050	+1.060	24	342.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Jack Miller	01:47.371	+1.381	25	339.6	— / —	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.419	+1.429	23	341.2	Soft / Medium	1:48.628	+1.04%	5	Medium
18	Pol Espargaro	01:47.480	+1.490	21	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.514	+1.524	10	341.2	— / —	—			—
20	Michele Pirro	01:48.028	+2.038	23	339.6	— / —	—			—
21	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.105	+2.115	17	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:49.048	+1.43%	6	Medium
22	Stefan Bradl	01:48.745	+2.755	26	341.2	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 22.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Luca Marini	01:44.782	—	25	339.6	— / —	—			—
2	Jorge Martin	01:44.790	+0.008	27	347.8	Medium / Soft	1:46.303	—	10	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:44.833	+0.051	24	341.2	Medium / Medium	1:47.499	+1.13%	5	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:45.117	+0.335	28	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.202	+0.420	24	347.8	Medium / Soft	1:46.746	+0.42%	4	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:45.213	+0.431	21	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:45.280	+0.498	24	341.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.291	+0.509	29	344.4	Medium / Soft	1:47.115	+0.76%	9	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	01:45.305	+0.523	24	344.4	— / —	—			—
10	Joan Mir	01:45.332	+0.550	21	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.406	+0.624	24	338.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Brad Binder	01:45.539	+0.757	24	344.4	— / —	—			—
13	Alex Marquez	01:45.550	+0.768	26	341.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.576	+0.794	27	344.4	Hard / Soft	1:48.470	+2.04%	6	Medium
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:45.589	+0.807	27	339.6	— / —	—			—
16	Raul Fernandez	01:45.712	+0.930	25	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:45.863	+1.081	25	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:47.468	+1.10%	6	Medium
18	Jack Miller	01:45.961	+1.179	25	341.2	— / —	—			—
19	Pol Espargaro	01:46.111	+1.329	20	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Stefan Bradl	01:46.276	+1.494	27	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:47.534	+1.16%	5	Medium
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.310	+1.528	25	341.2	— / —	—			—
22	Michele Pirro	01:46.573	+1.791	26	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 23.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.398	—	13	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:46.081	—	4	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:45.601	+0.203	13	341.2	Medium / Soft	1:46.540	+0.43%	5	Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:45.604	+0.206	13	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Jorge Martin	01:45.659	+0.261	11	347.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Brad Binder	01:45.697	+0.299	14	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:46.777	+0.66%	5	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.701	+0.303	13	341.2	Medium / Soft	1:46.453	+0.35%	6	Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:45.723	+0.325	13	347.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:45.725	+0.327	14	344.4	Hard / Medium	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:45.853	+0.455	13	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:46.909	+0.78%	5	Medium
10	Joan Mir	01:45.860	+0.462	12	344.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.875	+0.477	9	341.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:45.892	+0.494	10	338.0	Medium / Soft	1:46.190	+0.10%	7	Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.896	+0.498	12	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:46.753	+0.63%	5	Soft
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.947	+0.549	13	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:46.298	+0.21%	4	Soft
15	Maverick Viñales	01:46.293	+0.895	12	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.328	+0.930	12	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Pol Espargaro	01:46.341	+0.943	12	344.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Johann Zarco	01:46.354	+0.956	9	341.2	Medium / Soft	1:46.519	+0.41%	5	Soft
19	Raul Fernandez	01:46.367	+0.969	10	338.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.506	+1.108	12	344.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Stefan Bradl	01:46.928	+1.530	13	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Michele Pirro	01:47.197	+1.799	10	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—

Free practice · 23.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:49.017	—	6	347.8	Medium / Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:49.868	+0.851	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:49.932	+0.915	7	342.8	Medium / Soft
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:50.148	+1.131	6	341.2	Medium / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:50.180	+1.163	7	341.2	Soft / Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:50.469	+1.452	7	344.4	Medium / Soft
7	Augusto Fernandez	01:50.756	+1.739	8	341.2	Medium / Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:51.361	+2.344	8	344.4	Medium / Soft
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:51.480	+2.463	6	341.2	Soft / Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	01:53.023	+4.006	5	338.0	Medium / Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:53.780	+4.763	4	338.0	Medium / Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:54.422	+5.405	7	344.4	Medium / Soft
13	Maverick Viñales	01:55.904	+6.887	6	341.2	Medium / Soft
14	Marc Marquez	01:56.227	+7.210	3	338.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
15	Stefan Bradl	01:56.716	+7.699	5	338.0	Soft / Soft
16	Michele Pirro	01:57.519	+8.502	5	338.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:57.664	+8.647	3	334.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.982	+9.965	4	336.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:59.043	+10.026	3	336.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	02:02.497	+13.480	4	334.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
21	Pol Espargaro	02:06.745	+17.728	4	321.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium

Q1 · 23.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Raul Fernandez	01:44.410	—	7	344.4	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:44.519	+0.109	6	342.8	Medium / Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:44.529	+0.119	8	339.6	Medium / Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:44.651	+0.241	7	344.4	Medium / Soft
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.735	+0.325	8	344.4	Medium / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:45.030	+0.620	7	342.8	Soft / Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.037	+0.627	7	341.2	Medium / Soft
8	Augusto Fernandez	01:45.066	+0.656	7	342.8	Medium / Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:45.375	+0.965	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:45.452	+1.042	7	342.8	Medium / Soft
11	Stefan Bradl	01:45.517	+1.107	8	342.8	Medium / Soft
12	Michele Pirro	01:46.147	+1.737	8	341.2	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 23.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:43.947	—	8	346.1	Medium / Soft
2	Jorge Martin	01:43.990	+0.043	8	344.4	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.203	+0.256	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
4	Luca Marini	01:44.215	+0.268	8	344.4	Medium / Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:44.454	+0.507	7	344.4	Medium / Soft
6	Marc Marquez	01:44.469	+0.522	7	344.4	Medium / Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:44.515	+0.568	8	344.4	Medium / Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.724	+0.777	8	346.1	Medium / Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	01:44.741	+0.794	7	344.4	Medium / Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:44.750	+0.803	8	341.2	Medium / Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	01:45.194	+1.247	7	339.6	Medium / Soft
Retired	Alex Marquez		—	0	0.0	— / —

Sprint · 23.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	19:18.836	12	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.138	+0.29%	9	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+1.389	9	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.303	+0.45%	9	Soft
3	Marc Marquez	+2.405	7	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.342	+0.48%	9	Soft
4	Brad Binder	+2.904	6	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.422	+0.56%	9	Soft
5	Marco Bezzecchi	+3.266	5	11	Medium / Soft	1:44.836	—	8	Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	+4.327	4	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.372	+0.51%	9	Soft
7	Jack Miller	+7.172	3	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.651	+0.78%	9	Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	+8.798	2	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.981	+1.09%	9	Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	+10.530	1	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.911	+1.03%	9	Soft
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+10.826	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.741	+0.86%	9	Soft
11	Augusto Fernandez	+11.456	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.898	+1.01%	9	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	+15.415	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.214	+1.31%	9	Soft
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+17.437	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.589	+1.67%	9	Soft
14	Michele Pirro	+23.714	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.884	+1.95%	7	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	+36.468	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.126	+1.23%	8	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	7	Medium / Soft	1:46.091	+1.20%	4	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	3	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:45.726	+0.85%	4	Soft
Out on lap 1	Luca Marini		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Pol Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Stefan Bradl		0	0	— / —	—			—

Warm Up · 24.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:45.402	—	6	349.5	Medium / Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.541	+0.139	6	347.8	Medium / Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.713	+0.311	6	339.6	Medium / Medium
4	Augusto Fernandez	01:45.800	+0.398	6	341.2	Medium / Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:45.830	+0.428	6	342.8	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.864	+0.462	6	339.6	Medium / Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:45.902	+0.500	6	346.1	Medium / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:45.979	+0.577	6	342.8	Medium / Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.014	+0.612	6	347.8	Medium / Medium
10	Raul Fernandez	01:46.064	+0.662	6	338.0	Medium / Medium
11	Marc Marquez	01:46.081	+0.679	6	342.8	Medium / Medium
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.082	+0.680	6	341.2	Medium / Soft
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.142	+0.740	6	352.9	Medium / Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	01:46.207	+0.805	6	344.4	Medium / Soft
15	Pol Espargaro	01:46.239	+0.837	6	344.4	Medium / Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.466	+1.064	6	344.4	Medium / Soft
17	Jack Miller	01:46.616	+1.214	6	339.6	Medium / Medium
18	Stefan Bradl	01:46.629	+1.227	6	342.8	Medium / Soft
19	Michele Pirro	01:47.041	+1.639	6	346.1	Medium / Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.735	+3.333	2	344.4	Hard / Soft

Race · 24.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	36:59.157	25	21	Medium / Soft	1:45.475	—	19	Soft
2	Jorge Martin	+8.649	20	21	Medium / Medium	1:45.767	+0.28%	19	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	+8.855	16	21	Medium / Soft	1:45.940	+0.44%	19	Soft
4	Brad Binder	+12.643	13	21	Medium / Soft	1:46.001	+0.50%	19	Soft
5	Joan Mir	+13.214	11	21	Medium / Soft	1:45.991	+0.49%	19	Soft
6	Johann Zarco	+14.673	10	21	Medium / Soft	1:46.108	+0.60%	19	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	+16.946	9	21	Hard / Soft	1:46.322	+0.80%	19	Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	+17.191	8	21	Medium / Soft	1:46.189	+0.68%	18	Soft
9	Marc Marquez	+19.118	7	21	Medium / Soft	1:45.926	+0.43%	18	Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	+26.504	6	21	Medium / Soft	1:46.644	+1.11%	15	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	+28.521	5	21	Medium / Soft	1:46.710	+1.17%	19	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	+29.088	4	21	Medium / Soft	1:46.973	+1.42%	18	Soft
13	Pol Espargaro	+29.728	3	21	Medium / Soft	1:46.926	+1.38%	19	Soft
14	Jack Miller	+31.324	2	21	Medium / Soft	1:46.699	+1.16%	19	Soft
15	Stefan Bradl	+35.782	1	21	Medium / Soft	1:47.070	+1.51%	19	Soft
16	Michele Pirro	+49.242	0	21	Medium / Soft	1:47.676	+2.09%	18	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	11	Medium / Soft	1:46.002	+0.50%	9	Soft
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	6	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	19	Medium / Soft	1:46.270	+0.75%	16	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	13	Hard / Soft	1:45.715	+0.23%	11	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:45.953*	—	+0.275	Medium	3
Jorge Martin	1:45.979	+0.026	+0.457	Medium	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:46.612*	+0.659	+0.209	Medium	4
Luca Marini	1:46.668*	+0.715	+0.308	Medium	3
Brad Binder	1:46.746*	+0.793	+0.327	Medium	4
Jack Miller	1:46.877*	+0.924	+0.105	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:47.084*	+1.131	+0.193	Medium	4
Michele Pirro	1:47.315*	+1.362	+0.267	Medium	3
Stefan Bradl	1:47.534	+1.581	+0.530	Medium	5
Pol Espargaro	1:47.790*	+1.837	+0.406	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Marquez	57%	2 ✓
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	40%	3
3	Franco Morbidelli	30%	7
4	Brad Binder	21%	4
5	Raul Fernandez	19%	1 ✓
6	Jack Miller	9%	6
7	Pol Espargaro	8%	10
8	Miguel Oliveira	4%	9
9	Augusto Fernandez	2%	8
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	5
11	Stefan Bradl	4%	11
12	Michele Pirro	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marco Bezzecchi	34%	63%	89%	1
2	Jorge Martin	24%	51%	81%	2
3	Marc Marquez	14%	48%	78%	6
4	Francesco Bagnaia	5%	34%	68%	3
5	Luca Marini	4%	27%	52%	4
6	Aleix Espargaro	7%	23%	56%	10
7	Joan Mir	1%	10%	39%	5
8	Fabio Quartararo	3%	13%	38%	8
9	Maverick Viñales	3%	8%	28%	9
10	Raul Fernandez	2%	8%	26%	11
11	Johann Zarco	3%	11%	30%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Sprint	Alex Marquez	12	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Luca Marini	4	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Alex Marquez	12	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	26%	57%	73%	85%	15%	5
Jorge Martin	2	22%	58%	77%	93%	4%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	3	16%	50%	72%	93%	4%	2
Joan Mir	4	9%	31%	49%	71%	24%	—
Marc Marquez	5	8%	30%	55%	89%	4%	3
Johann Zarco	6	5%	20%	42%	80%	9%	—
Fabio Quartararo	7	4%	15%	35%	77%	9%	6
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	11%	27%	72%	9%	8
Aleix Espargaro	9	2%	7%	17%	62%	15%	—
Raul Fernandez	10	2%	6%	15%	63%	4%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	1%	4%	10%	50%	9%	10
Brad Binder	12	1%	4%	8%	46%	4%	4
Takaaki Nakagami	13	1%	2%	5%	30%	15%	13
Jack Miller	14	1%	2%	4%	27%	9%	7
Franco Morbidelli	15	1%	2%	4%	21%	4%	15
Augusto Fernandez	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	15%	11
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	1%	2%	9%	10%	12
Pol Espargaro	18	0%	1%	1%	6%	17%	—
Stefan Bradl	19	0%	1%	1%	5%	7%	—
Michele Pirro	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	19%	14
Luca Marini	21	0%	0%	1%	3%	15%	—
Alex Marquez	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	38%	68%	78%	83%	16%	1
Jorge Martin	2	23%	56%	68%	75%	23%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	3	16%	48%	63%	73%	26%	—
Joan Mir	4	8%	33%	55%	72%	27%	5
Marc Marquez	5	10%	38%	63%	80%	17%	9
Johann Zarco	6	2%	17%	40%	76%	18%	6
Fabio Quartararo	7	3%	20%	44%	80%	14%	3
Maverick Viñales	8	0%	7%	23%	71%	13%	8
Aleix Espargaro	9	0%	1%	8%	50%	23%	—
Raul Fernandez	10	0%	1%	9%	52%	20%	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	0%	3%	13%	60%	19%	—
Brad Binder	12	0%	8%	24%	72%	13%	4
Takaaki Nakagami	13	0%	0%	1%	28%	15%	11
Jack Miller	14	0%	2%	9%	48%	25%	14
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	0%	1%	17%	16%	7
Augusto Fernandez	16	0%	0%	2%	36%	6%	—
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	0%	16%	20%	12
Pol Espargaro	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	21%	13
Stefan Bradl	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	15
Michele Pirro	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	21%	16
Luca Marini	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	7%	—
Alex Marquez	22	0%	0%	0%	0%	25%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	45% → 56%	+10	18% → 23%
Marco Bezzecchi	59% → 68%	+10	30% → 38%
Francesco Bagnaia	39% → 48%	+9	13% → 16%
Dropping
Maverick Viñales	17% → 7%	−10	4% → 0%
Aleix Espargaro	10% → 1%	−9	2% → 0%
Johann Zarco	24% → 17%	−7	6% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:44.836	—	+0.553	Soft	8
Jorge Martin	1:45.138	+0.302	+0.457	Soft	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:45.303	+0.467	+0.221	Soft	9
Marc Marquez	1:45.342	+0.506	+0.210	Soft	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:45.372	+0.536	+0.275	Soft	9
Brad Binder	1:45.422	+0.586	+0.327	Soft	9
Jack Miller	1:45.651	+0.815	+0.105	Soft	9
Johann Zarco	1:45.726	+0.890	+0.344	Soft	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:45.741	+0.905	+0.320	Soft	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:45.898	+1.062	+0.437	Soft	9
Raul Fernandez	1:45.911	+1.075	+0.667	Soft	9
Maverick Viñales	1:45.981	+1.145	+0.292	Soft	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:46.091	+1.255	+0.209	Soft	4
Franco Morbidelli	1:46.126	+1.290	+0.512	Soft	8
Miguel Oliveira	1:46.214	+1.378	+0.193	Soft	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:46.589	+1.753	+0.359	Soft	9
Michele Pirro	1:46.884	+2.048	+0.267	Soft	7

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,974 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%	Augusto Fernandez +0.40%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.15%	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.64%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Luca Marini +0.20%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%	Augusto Fernandez +0.40%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.15%	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.64%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

Pending · no data yet

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	283	—
2	Jorge Martin	247	−36
3	Marco Bezzecchi	218	−65
4	Brad Binder	173	−110
5	Aleix Espargaro	160	−123
6	Johann Zarco	147	−136

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2023Marco BezzecchiDucati

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2023	4/20	20%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet