MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 13 of 20 Aftermath

Indian Grand Prix 2023

Buddh International Circuit India

5.010 m · 21 laps
22.09 – 24.09.2023
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team36:59.15725
2Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+8.64920
3Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+8.85516
4Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+12.64313
5Joan MirHondaRepsol Honda Team+13.21411
6Johann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+14.67310
7Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+16.9469
8Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+17.1918
9Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+19.1187
10Raul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+26.5046
11Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+28.5215
12Miguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+29.0884
13Pol EspargaroKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+29.7283
14Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+31.3242
15Stefan BradlHondaLCR Honda CASTROL+35.7821
16Michele PirroDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+49.2420
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0
DNFAugusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3Retired0
DNFFabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPRetired0
DNFFrancesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing19:18.83612
2Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+1.3899
3Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+2.4057
4Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+2.9046
5Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+3.2665
6Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+4.3274
7Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+7.1723
8Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+8.7982
9Raul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+10.5301
10Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+10.8260
11Augusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+11.4560
12Miguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+15.4150
13Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+17.4370
14Michele PirroDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+23.7140
15Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+36.4680
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFJohann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac RacingRetired0
DNFLuca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing TeamOut on lap 10
DNFPol EspargaroKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3Out on lap 10
DNFStefan BradlHondaLCR Honda CASTROLOut on lap 10

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintMarco Bezzecchi · 26%Jorge Martin · 22% · from P20.82 / 0.822.3 / 2.3
Race (after the grid)Marco Bezzecchi · 30% ✓Marco Bezzecchi · 30% · from P10.84 / 0.842.0 / 1.9
Race (after the sprint)Marco Bezzecchi · 38% ✓Marco Bezzecchi · 38% · from P10.85 / 0.841.9 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marco Bezzecchi1:45.475—+0.553Soft19
Francesco Bagnaia1:45.715+0.240+0.221Soft11
Jorge Martin1:45.767+0.292+0.457Medium19
Marc Marquez1:45.926+0.451+0.210Soft18
Fabio Quartararo1:45.940+0.465+0.275Soft19
Joan Mir1:45.991+0.516+0.562Soft19
Brad Binder1:46.001+0.526+0.327Soft19
Aleix Espargaro1:46.002+0.527+0.209Soft9
Johann Zarco1:46.108+0.633+0.344Soft19
Maverick Viñales1:46.189+0.714+0.292Soft18
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:46.270+0.795+0.320Soft16
Franco Morbidelli1:46.322+0.847+0.512Soft19
Raul Fernandez1:46.644+1.169+0.667Soft15
Jack Miller1:46.699+1.224+0.105Soft19
Takaaki Nakagami1:46.710+1.235+0.359Soft19
Pol Espargaro1:46.926+1.451+0.406Soft19
Miguel Oliveira1:46.973+1.498+0.193Soft18
Stefan Bradl1:47.070+1.595+0.530Soft19
Michele Pirro1:47.676+2.201+0.267Soft18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

66
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
21/21
Laps led by the winner
Marco Bezzecchi
8.649 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P12 to P4.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

33
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
11/11
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Martin
1.389 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P13 to P4.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Marc Marquez (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint17:06:16Luca MariniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint17:06:16Stefan BradlCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint17:06:16Pol EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint17:08:49Miguel OliveiraPosition penaltyTo drop 1 position due to overtake under the yellow flag
Sprint17:11:37Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint17:15:26Johann ZarcoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint17:16:35Johann ZarcoRetiredEntered pits and retired
Sprint17:20:01Aleix EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:41:35Marc MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:43:23Augusto FernandezRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race15:52:40Aleix EspargaroRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race15:56:21Francesco BagnaiaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race16:06:21Fabio Di GiannantonioRetiredEntered pits and retired

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 4 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft95%+0.75%+0.031128.9
Medium5%+0.28%+0.036012.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
32.3 °C
Air
max 33.0 °C
57%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
11 km/h
Wind
gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 22.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi01:45.990—26346.1— / ———
2Marc Marquez01:46.129+0.13925342.8Medium / Medium1:47.509—5Medium
3Brad Binder01:46.310+0.32025344.4Soft / Medium——
4Raul Fernandez01:46.371+0.38124339.6— / ———
5Maverick Viñales01:46.478+0.48825342.8Soft / Medium1:49.531+1.88%13Medium
6Johann Zarco01:46.576+0.58624342.8Soft / Hard——
7Luca Marini01:46.609+0.61923342.8— / ———
8Jorge Martin01:46.610+0.62024351.2Medium / Soft——
9Fabio Di Giannantonio01:46.778+0.78823338.0Soft / Medium——
10Joan Mir01:46.805+0.81524341.2— / ———
11Augusto Fernandez01:46.827+0.83726339.6Medium / Medium——
12Takaaki Nakagami01:46.966+0.97624342.8Soft / Medium——
13Aleix Espargaro01:46.974+0.98424341.2— / ———
14Alex Marquez01:47.017+1.02726344.4Soft / Medium1:48.655+1.07%5Medium
15Francesco Bagnaia01:47.050+1.06024342.8Soft / Medium——
16Jack Miller01:47.371+1.38125339.6— / ———
17Miguel Oliveira01:47.419+1.42923341.2Soft / Medium1:48.628+1.04%5Medium
18Pol Espargaro01:47.480+1.49021346.1Soft / Medium——
19Fabio Quartararo01:47.514+1.52410341.2— / ———
20Michele Pirro01:48.028+2.03823339.6— / ———
21Franco Morbidelli01:48.105+2.11517342.8Soft / Medium1:49.048+1.43%6Medium
22Stefan Bradl01:48.745+2.75526341.2Soft / Medium——
Practice · 22.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Luca Marini01:44.782—25339.6— / ———
2Jorge Martin01:44.790+0.00827347.8Medium / Soft1:46.303—10Medium
3Aleix Espargaro01:44.833+0.05124341.2Medium / Medium1:47.499+1.13%5Medium
4Marc Marquez01:45.117+0.33528346.1Medium / Soft——
5Marco Bezzecchi01:45.202+0.42024347.8Medium / Soft1:46.746+0.42%4Soft
6Maverick Viñales01:45.213+0.43121346.1Soft / Medium——
7Francesco Bagnaia01:45.280+0.49824341.2Medium / Soft——
8Fabio Quartararo01:45.291+0.50929344.4Medium / Soft1:47.115+0.76%9Medium
9Johann Zarco01:45.305+0.52324344.4— / ———
10Joan Mir01:45.332+0.55021346.1Medium / Soft——
11Fabio Di Giannantonio01:45.406+0.62424338.0Medium / Soft——
12Brad Binder01:45.539+0.75724344.4— / ———
13Alex Marquez01:45.550+0.76826341.2Medium / Soft——
14Franco Morbidelli01:45.576+0.79427344.4Hard / Soft1:48.470+2.04%6Medium
15Augusto Fernandez01:45.589+0.80727339.6— / ———
16Raul Fernandez01:45.712+0.93025339.6Medium / Soft——
17Miguel Oliveira01:45.863+1.08125342.8Medium / Soft1:47.468+1.10%6Medium
18Jack Miller01:45.961+1.17925341.2— / ———
19Pol Espargaro01:46.111+1.32920346.1Medium / Soft——
20Stefan Bradl01:46.276+1.49427346.1Medium / Medium1:47.534+1.16%5Medium
21Takaaki Nakagami01:46.310+1.52825341.2— / ———
22Michele Pirro01:46.573+1.79126339.6Medium / Soft——
FP2 · 23.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi01:45.398—13346.1Medium / Soft1:46.081—4Soft
2Alex Marquez01:45.601+0.20313341.2Medium / Soft1:46.540+0.43%5Soft
3Luca Marini01:45.604+0.20613339.6Medium / Soft——
4Jorge Martin01:45.659+0.26111347.8Medium / Medium——
5Brad Binder01:45.697+0.29914346.1Medium / Soft1:46.777+0.66%5Medium
6Aleix Espargaro01:45.701+0.30313341.2Medium / Soft1:46.453+0.35%6Soft
7Marc Marquez01:45.723+0.32513347.8Medium / Soft——
8Francesco Bagnaia01:45.725+0.32714344.4Hard / Medium——
9Jack Miller01:45.853+0.45513342.8Medium / Soft1:46.909+0.78%5Medium
10Joan Mir01:45.860+0.46212344.4Medium / Soft——
11Fabio Di Giannantonio01:45.875+0.4779341.2Medium / Soft——
12Augusto Fernandez01:45.892+0.49410338.0Medium / Soft1:46.190+0.10%7Soft
13Franco Morbidelli01:45.896+0.49812342.8Medium / Soft1:46.753+0.63%5Soft
14Fabio Quartararo01:45.947+0.54913342.8Medium / Soft1:46.298+0.21%4Soft
15Maverick Viñales01:46.293+0.89512346.1Medium / Soft——
16Takaaki Nakagami01:46.328+0.93012339.6Medium / Soft——
17Pol Espargaro01:46.341+0.94312344.4Medium / Soft——
18Johann Zarco01:46.354+0.9569341.2Medium / Soft1:46.519+0.41%5Soft
19Raul Fernandez01:46.367+0.96910338.0Medium / Soft——
20Miguel Oliveira01:46.506+1.10812344.4Medium / Soft——
21Stefan Bradl01:46.928+1.53013339.6Medium / Soft——
22Michele Pirro01:47.197+1.79910339.6Medium / Soft——
Free practice · 23.09 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Jorge Martin01:49.017—6347.8Medium / Soft
2Johann Zarco01:49.868+0.8517346.1Medium / Soft
3Francesco Bagnaia01:49.932+0.9157342.8Medium / Soft
4Miguel Oliveira01:50.148+1.1316341.2Medium / Soft
5Jack Miller01:50.180+1.1637341.2Soft / Soft
6Luca Marini01:50.469+1.4527344.4Medium / Soft
7Augusto Fernandez01:50.756+1.7398341.2Medium / Soft
8Marco Bezzecchi01:51.361+2.3448344.4Medium / Soft
9Fabio Quartararo01:51.480+2.4636341.2Soft / Soft
10Raul Fernandez01:53.023+4.0065338.0Medium / Soft
11Joan Mir01:53.780+4.7634338.0Medium / Soft
12Brad Binder01:54.422+5.4057344.4Medium / Soft
13Maverick Viñales01:55.904+6.8876341.2Medium / Soft
14Marc Marquez01:56.227+7.2103338.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
15Stefan Bradl01:56.716+7.6995338.0Soft / Soft
16Michele Pirro01:57.519+8.5025338.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
17Franco Morbidelli01:57.664+8.6473334.8Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
18Aleix Espargaro01:58.982+9.9654336.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
19Fabio Di Giannantonio01:59.043+10.0263336.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
20Takaaki Nakagami02:02.497+13.4804334.8Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
21Pol Espargaro02:06.745+17.7284321.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
Q1 · 23.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Raul Fernandez01:44.410—7344.4Medium / Soft
2Alex Marquez01:44.519+0.1096342.8Medium / Soft
3Fabio Di Giannantonio01:44.529+0.1198339.6Medium / Soft
4Brad Binder01:44.651+0.2417344.4Medium / Soft
5Takaaki Nakagami01:44.735+0.3258344.4Medium / Soft
6Jack Miller01:45.030+0.6207342.8Soft / Soft
7Franco Morbidelli01:45.037+0.6277341.2Medium / Soft
8Augusto Fernandez01:45.066+0.6567342.8Medium / Soft
9Miguel Oliveira01:45.375+0.9657346.1Medium / Soft
10Pol Espargaro01:45.452+1.0427342.8Medium / Soft
11Stefan Bradl01:45.517+1.1078342.8Medium / Soft
12Michele Pirro01:46.147+1.7378341.2Medium / Soft
Q2 · 23.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Marco Bezzecchi01:43.947—8346.1Medium / Soft
2Jorge Martin01:43.990+0.0438344.4Medium / Soft
3Francesco Bagnaia01:44.203+0.2567346.1Medium / Soft
4Luca Marini01:44.215+0.2688344.4Medium / Soft
5Joan Mir01:44.454+0.5077344.4Medium / Soft
6Marc Marquez01:44.469+0.5227344.4Medium / Soft
7Johann Zarco01:44.515+0.5688344.4Medium / Soft
8Fabio Quartararo01:44.724+0.7778346.1Medium / Soft
9Maverick Viñales01:44.741+0.7947344.4Medium / Soft
10Aleix Espargaro01:44.750+0.8038341.2Medium / Soft
11Raul Fernandez01:45.194+1.2477339.6Medium / Soft
RetiredAlex Marquez—00.0— / —
Sprint · 23.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin19:18.8361211Medium / Soft1:45.138+0.29%9Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia+1.389911Medium / Soft1:45.303+0.45%9Soft
3Marc Marquez+2.405711Medium / Soft1:45.342+0.48%9Soft
4Brad Binder+2.904611Medium / Soft1:45.422+0.56%9Soft
5Marco Bezzecchi+3.266511Medium / Soft1:44.836—8Soft
6Fabio Quartararo+4.327411Medium / Soft1:45.372+0.51%9Soft
7Jack Miller+7.172311Medium / Soft1:45.651+0.78%9Soft
8Maverick Viñales+8.798211Medium / Soft1:45.981+1.09%9Soft
9Raul Fernandez+10.530111Medium / Soft1:45.911+1.03%9Soft
10Fabio Di Giannantonio+10.826011Medium / Soft1:45.741+0.86%9Soft
11Augusto Fernandez+11.456011Medium / Soft1:45.898+1.01%9Soft
12Miguel Oliveira+15.415011Medium / Soft1:46.214+1.31%9Soft
13Takaaki Nakagami+17.437011Medium / Soft1:46.589+1.67%9Soft
14Michele Pirro+23.714011Medium / Soft1:46.884+1.95%7Soft
15Franco Morbidelli+36.468011Medium / Soft1:46.126+1.23%8Soft
RetiredAleix Espargaro07Medium / Soft1:46.091+1.20%4Soft
RetiredJoan Mir03Medium / Soft——
RetiredJohann Zarco06Medium / Soft1:45.726+0.85%4Soft
Out on lap 1Luca Marini00— / ———
Out on lap 1Pol Espargaro00— / ———
Out on lap 1Stefan Bradl00— / ———
Warm Up · 24.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Jorge Martin01:45.402—6349.5Medium / Medium
2Marco Bezzecchi01:45.541+0.1396347.8Medium / Medium
3Fabio Quartararo01:45.713+0.3116339.6Medium / Medium
4Augusto Fernandez01:45.800+0.3986341.2Medium / Soft
5Joan Mir01:45.830+0.4286342.8Medium / Soft
6Fabio Di Giannantonio01:45.864+0.4626339.6Medium / Soft
7Brad Binder01:45.902+0.5006346.1Medium / Soft
8Johann Zarco01:45.979+0.5776342.8Medium / Medium
9Aleix Espargaro01:46.014+0.6126347.8Medium / Medium
10Raul Fernandez01:46.064+0.6626338.0Medium / Medium
11Marc Marquez01:46.081+0.6796342.8Medium / Medium
12Franco Morbidelli01:46.082+0.6806341.2Medium / Soft
13Francesco Bagnaia01:46.142+0.7406352.9Medium / Medium
14Maverick Viñales01:46.207+0.8056344.4Medium / Soft
15Pol Espargaro01:46.239+0.8376344.4Medium / Soft
16Takaaki Nakagami01:46.466+1.0646344.4Medium / Soft
17Jack Miller01:46.616+1.2146339.6Medium / Medium
18Stefan Bradl01:46.629+1.2276342.8Medium / Soft
19Michele Pirro01:47.041+1.6396346.1Medium / Medium
20Miguel Oliveira01:48.735+3.3332344.4Hard / Soft
Race · 24.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi36:59.1572521Medium / Soft1:45.475—19Soft
2Jorge Martin+8.6492021Medium / Medium1:45.767+0.28%19Medium
3Fabio Quartararo+8.8551621Medium / Soft1:45.940+0.44%19Soft
4Brad Binder+12.6431321Medium / Soft1:46.001+0.50%19Soft
5Joan Mir+13.2141121Medium / Soft1:45.991+0.49%19Soft
6Johann Zarco+14.6731021Medium / Soft1:46.108+0.60%19Soft
7Franco Morbidelli+16.946921Hard / Soft1:46.322+0.80%19Soft
8Maverick Viñales+17.191821Medium / Soft1:46.189+0.68%18Soft
9Marc Marquez+19.118721Medium / Soft1:45.926+0.43%18Soft
10Raul Fernandez+26.504621Medium / Soft1:46.644+1.11%15Soft
11Takaaki Nakagami+28.521521Medium / Soft1:46.710+1.17%19Soft
12Miguel Oliveira+29.088421Medium / Soft1:46.973+1.42%18Soft
13Pol Espargaro+29.728321Medium / Soft1:46.926+1.38%19Soft
14Jack Miller+31.324221Medium / Soft1:46.699+1.16%19Soft
15Stefan Bradl+35.782121Medium / Soft1:47.070+1.51%19Soft
16Michele Pirro+49.242021Medium / Soft1:47.676+2.09%18Soft
RetiredAleix Espargaro011Medium / Soft1:46.002+0.50%9Soft
RetiredAugusto Fernandez06Medium / Soft——
RetiredFabio Di Giannantonio019Medium / Soft1:46.270+0.75%16Soft
RetiredFrancesco Bagnaia013Hard / Soft1:45.715+0.23%11Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Fabio Quartararo1:45.953*—+0.275Medium3
Jorge Martin1:45.979+0.026+0.457Medium9
Aleix Espargaro1:46.612*+0.659+0.209Medium4
Luca Marini1:46.668*+0.715+0.308Medium3
Brad Binder1:46.746*+0.793+0.327Medium4
Jack Miller1:46.877*+0.924+0.105Medium3
Miguel Oliveira1:47.084*+1.131+0.193Medium4
Michele Pirro1:47.315*+1.362+0.267Medium3
Stefan Bradl1:47.534+1.581+0.530Medium5
Pol Espargaro1:47.790*+1.837+0.406Medium3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
SprintAlex Marquez12——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
RaceLuca Marini4——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
RaceAlex Marquez12——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marco Bezzecchi126%57%73%85%15%5
Jorge Martin222%58%77%93%4%1
Francesco Bagnaia316%50%72%93%4%2
Joan Mir49%31%49%71%24%—
Marc Marquez58%30%55%89%4%3
Johann Zarco65%20%42%80%9%—
Fabio Quartararo74%15%35%77%9%6
Maverick Viñales83%11%27%72%9%8
Aleix Espargaro92%7%17%62%15%—
Raul Fernandez102%6%15%63%4%9
Fabio Di Giannantonio111%4%10%50%9%10
Brad Binder121%4%8%46%4%4
Takaaki Nakagami131%2%5%30%15%13
Jack Miller141%2%4%27%9%7
Franco Morbidelli151%2%4%21%4%15
Augusto Fernandez160%1%2%14%15%11
Miguel Oliveira170%1%2%9%10%12
Pol Espargaro180%1%1%6%17%—
Stefan Bradl190%1%1%5%7%—
Michele Pirro200%0%1%4%19%14
Luca Marini210%0%1%3%15%—
Alex Marquez220%0%0%2%20%—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marco Bezzecchi138%68%78%83%16%1
Jorge Martin223%56%68%75%23%2
Francesco Bagnaia316%48%63%73%26%—
Joan Mir48%33%55%72%27%5
Marc Marquez510%38%63%80%17%9
Johann Zarco62%17%40%76%18%6
Fabio Quartararo73%20%44%80%14%3
Maverick Viñales80%7%23%71%13%8
Aleix Espargaro90%1%8%50%23%—
Raul Fernandez100%1%9%52%20%10
Fabio Di Giannantonio110%3%13%60%19%—
Brad Binder120%8%24%72%13%4
Takaaki Nakagami130%0%1%28%15%11
Jack Miller140%2%9%48%25%14
Franco Morbidelli150%0%1%17%16%7
Augusto Fernandez160%0%2%36%6%—
Miguel Oliveira170%0%0%16%20%12
Pol Espargaro180%0%0%5%21%13
Stefan Bradl190%0%0%3%19%15
Michele Pirro200%0%0%3%21%16
Luca Marini210%0%0%1%7%—
Alex Marquez220%0%0%0%25%—

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Jorge Martin45% → 56%+1018% → 23%
Marco Bezzecchi59% → 68%+1030% → 38%
Francesco Bagnaia39% → 48%+913% → 16%
Dropping
Maverick Viñales17% → 7%−104% → 0%
Aleix Espargaro10% → 1%−92% → 0%
Johann Zarco24% → 17%−76% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marco Bezzecchi1:44.836—+0.553Soft8
Jorge Martin1:45.138+0.302+0.457Soft9
Francesco Bagnaia1:45.303+0.467+0.221Soft9
Marc Marquez1:45.342+0.506+0.210Soft9
Fabio Quartararo1:45.372+0.536+0.275Soft9
Brad Binder1:45.422+0.586+0.327Soft9
Jack Miller1:45.651+0.815+0.105Soft9
Johann Zarco1:45.726+0.890+0.344Soft4
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:45.741+0.905+0.320Soft9
Augusto Fernandez1:45.898+1.062+0.437Soft9
Raul Fernandez1:45.911+1.075+0.667Soft9
Maverick Viñales1:45.981+1.145+0.292Soft9
Aleix Espargaro1:46.091+1.255+0.209Soft4
Franco Morbidelli1:46.126+1.290+0.512Soft8
Miguel Oliveira1:46.214+1.378+0.193Soft9
Takaaki Nakagami1:46.589+1.753+0.359Soft9
Michele Pirro1:46.884+2.048+0.267Soft7

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · MartinS2 · BezzecchiS3 · MartinS4 · Bezzecchi

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,974 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15
Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2023Marco BezzecchiDucati

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20234/2020%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet