Round 17 of 20 Aftermath

Thailand Grand Prix 2023

4.554 m · 26 laps · since 2018

27.10 – 29.10.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	39:40.045	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.253	20
3	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.114	16
4	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+2.005	13
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+4.550	11
6	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+5.362	10
7	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+6.778	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+7.303	8
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+7.569	7
10	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+9.377	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+11.168	5
12	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.990	4
13	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+12.323	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+14.537	2
15	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+15.093	1
16	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+17.640	0
17	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+21.307	0
18	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+21.435	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:41.593	12
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.933	9
3	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+1.841	7
4	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+3.503	6
5	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+3.581	5
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+4.029	4
7	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.121	3
8	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.727	2
9	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+7.323	1
10	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.240	0
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+9.339	0
12	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+10.356	0
13	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+12.312	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+15.390	0
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+15.535	0
16	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+15.644	0
17	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+17.753	0
18	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+22.675	0
19	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+37.854	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Jorge Martin · 32% ✓	Jorge Martin · 32% · from P1	0.80 / 0.80	2.4 / 2.4
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 26% ✓	Jorge Martin · 26% · from P1	0.76 / 0.76	2.9 / 3.0
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 35% ✓	Jorge Martin · 35% · from P1	0.82 / 0.76	2.3 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:31.170	—	+0.356	Medium	10
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.267	+0.097	+0.221	Hard	23
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.292	+0.122	+0.553	Hard	23
Brad Binder	1:31.328	+0.158	+0.327	Hard	24
Jorge Martin	1:31.364	+0.194	+0.457	Hard	24
Luca Marini	1:31.443	+0.273	+0.308	Hard	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.516	+0.346	+0.320	Hard	22
Maverick Viñales	1:31.525	+0.355	+0.292	Hard	17
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.563	+0.393	+0.275	Hard	20
Marc Marquez	1:31.615	+0.445	+0.210	Hard	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.661	+0.491	+0.209	Hard	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.674	+0.504	+0.512	Hard	21
Enea Bastianini	1:31.686	+0.516	+0.319	Hard	23
Joan Mir	1:31.736	+0.566	+0.562	Hard	23
Johann Zarco	1:31.751	+0.581	+0.344	Hard	23
Raul Fernandez	1:31.896	+0.726	+0.667	Hard	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.905	+0.735	+0.359	Hard	23
Jack Miller	1:31.955	+0.785	+0.105	Hard	24
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.985	+0.815	+0.437	Hard	24
Pol Espargaro	1:32.129	+0.959	+0.406	Hard	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.293	+1.123	+0.193	Hard	4

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

23/26

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.114 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Jorge Martin (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

0.933 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Luca Marini (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:05:14	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:11:31	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:21	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Retired	entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:20:25	Maverick Viñales	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:21:45	Maverick Viñales	Long lap	long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:11:58		Red flag	Miguel OLIVEIRA black flag with orange disc
Race	15:12:21	Miguel Oliveira	Technical problem	stopped with technical issue
Race	15:21:34	Alex Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:37:52	Maverick Viñales	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	15:42:20	Brad Binder	Position penalty	1 position penalty due to exceeding track limit on the last lap
Race	16:14:59	Aleix Espargaro	Time penalty	3 seconds penalty
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards time penalty for rider #41 due to technical infringement.

Race: 4 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 16 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Joan Mir	19	14	+5
Raul Fernandez	14	11	+3
Miguel Oliveira	20	17	+3
Augusto Fernandez	12	21	−9
Marco Bezzecchi	4	10	−6
Pol Espargaro	17	19	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	6→2	+4.0
Fabio Quartararo	10→5	+3.6
Franco Morbidelli	18→11	+2.8
Jack Miller	15→16	−4.2
Pol Espargaro	17→18	−4.9
Augusto Fernandez	12→17	−7.1

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	95%	+0.55%	+0.022	1	3	9.5
Medium	5%	0.00%	−0.091	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.2 °C

Air

max 27.9 °C

85%

Humidity

1.9 mm

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 30 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:30.520	—	22	334.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.918	—	15	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:30.758	+0.238	20	333.3	Hard / Hard	1:32.249	+0.36%	5	Hard
3	Pol Espargaro	01:31.012	+0.492	18	333.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.735	+0.89%	5	Hard
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.171	+0.651	19	333.3	Hard / Hard	1:32.139	+0.24%	13	Hard
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.270	+0.750	22	332.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.343	+0.46%	13	Hard
6	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.343	+0.823	21	330.2	Soft / Hard	1:33.362	+1.57%	7	Hard
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.482	+0.962	19	330.2	Soft / Hard	1:32.465	+0.60%	7	Hard
8	Raul Fernandez	01:31.482	+0.962	20	330.2	Hard / Hard	1:32.320	+0.44%	5	Hard
9	Alex Marquez	01:31.486	+0.966	19	331.2	Soft / Hard	1:32.030	+0.12%	5	Hard
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.507	+0.987	21	334.3	Soft / Hard	1:31.965	+0.05%	4	Hard
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.599	+1.079	22	328.2	Soft / Hard	1:31.980	+0.07%	6	Hard
12	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.650	+1.130	20	332.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.008	+0.10%	7	Hard
13	Jack Miller	01:31.682	+1.162	20	332.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.517	+0.65%	11	Hard
14	Brad Binder	01:31.755	+1.235	21	332.3	Hard / Hard	1:32.187	+0.29%	14	Hard
15	Luca Marini	01:31.789	+1.269	22	332.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.131	+0.23%	15	Hard
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.824	+1.304	19	332.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.528	+0.66%	10	Hard
17	Enea Bastianini	01:31.853	+1.333	20	332.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.925	+1.10%	11	Hard
18	Marc Marquez	01:31.857	+1.337	21	332.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.764	+0.92%	11	Hard
19	Johann Zarco	01:31.913	+1.393	20	333.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.928	+1.10%	6	Hard
20	Joan Mir	01:31.997	+1.477	21	331.2	Soft / Hard	1:33.988	+2.25%	5	Hard
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.121	+1.601	18	333.3	Soft / Hard	1:32.578	+0.72%	10	Hard

Practice · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:29.826	—	22	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.716	+1.00%	6	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:29.924	+0.098	25	336.4	Medium / Medium	1:30.811	—	7	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.986	+0.160	26	336.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.770	+1.06%	8	Hard
4	Johann Zarco	01:30.006	+0.180	22	334.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Luca Marini	01:30.025	+0.199	27	333.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.238	+0.47%	10	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.034	+0.208	26	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.609	+0.88%	13	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.069	+0.243	23	334.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.074	+0.248	26	333.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.095	+0.31%	12	Medium
9	Brad Binder	01:30.121	+0.295	23	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.593	+0.86%	5	Medium
10	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.130	+0.304	24	333.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.864	+1.16%	8	Medium
11	Marc Marquez	01:30.195	+0.369	26	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:32.787	+2.18%	4	Hard
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.217	+0.391	24	334.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.468	+0.72%	10	Medium
13	Jack Miller	01:30.224	+0.398	27	334.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.477	+1.84%	7	Medium
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.262	+0.436	26	333.3	Medium / Medium	1:30.954	+0.16%	5	Medium
15	Pol Espargaro	01:30.268	+0.442	21	336.4	Medium / Medium	1:32.412	+1.76%	5	Medium
16	Joan Mir	01:30.295	+0.469	23	333.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	01:30.343	+0.517	23	332.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.487	+0.74%	6	Hard
18	Alex Marquez	01:30.367	+0.541	20	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Enea Bastianini	01:30.915	+1.089	24	334.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.963	+1.27%	11	Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.990	+1.164	27	331.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.104	+1.278	23	334.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.968	+1.27%	8	Medium

FP2 · 28.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:30.550	—	15	335.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.591	+0.041	14	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.736	+0.82%	7	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.598	+0.048	15	333.3	Medium / Hard	1:31.070	+0.09%	11	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.617	+0.067	15	331.2	Medium / Medium	1:30.991	—	6	Medium
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.660	+0.110	16	332.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.441	+0.50%	9	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.764	+0.214	15	333.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Johann Zarco	01:30.795	+0.245	13	332.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.312	+1.45%	6	Medium
8	Jorge Martin	01:30.809	+0.259	15	331.2	Medium / Medium	1:31.406	+0.46%	11	Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.817	+0.267	9	329.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Alex Marquez	01:30.822	+0.272	15	330.2	Medium / Medium	1:31.071	+0.09%	7	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:30.964	+0.414	17	331.2	Medium / Hard	1:31.365	+0.41%	13	Hard
12	Pol Espargaro	01:30.966	+0.416	11	332.3	Medium / Hard	1:31.332	+0.38%	5	Hard
13	Jack Miller	01:30.996	+0.446	17	330.2	Medium / Medium	1:31.921	+1.02%	5	Hard
14	Marc Marquez	01:31.008	+0.458	15	333.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.420	+1.57%	11	Medium
15	Luca Marini	01:31.023	+0.473	16	331.2	Medium / Hard	1:31.596	+0.67%	5	Medium
16	Raul Fernandez	01:31.175	+0.625	14	329.2	Medium / Medium	1:31.467	+0.52%	10	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.216	+0.666	15	330.2	Medium / Medium	1:31.520	+0.58%	6	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.231	+0.681	16	327.2	Medium / Hard	1:31.843	+0.94%	6	Hard
19	Joan Mir	01:31.282	+0.732	15	332.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.498	+0.56%	9	Medium
20	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.342	+0.792	15	327.2	Medium / Medium	1:31.952	+1.06%	10	Hard
21	Enea Bastianini	01:31.391	+0.841	11	331.2	Medium / Medium	1:32.595	+1.76%	6	Medium

Q1 · 28.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Marquez	01:29.743	—	8	329.2	Medium / Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:29.830	+0.087	8	335.4	Medium / Medium
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.850	+0.107	8	332.3	Medium / Medium
4	Raul Fernandez	01:29.914	+0.171	8	332.3	missing / missing
5	Jack Miller	01:30.096	+0.353	8	331.2	Medium / Medium
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.115	+0.372	8	329.2	Medium / Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	01:30.124	+0.381	8	335.4	Medium / Medium
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.158	+0.415	8	330.2	Medium / Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:30.263	+0.520	8	334.3	Medium / Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.442	+0.699	8	335.4	Medium / Medium
11	Enea Bastianini	01:30.677	+0.934	8	335.4	Medium / Medium

Q2 · 28.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:29.287	—	8	333.3	Medium / Medium
2	Luca Marini	01:29.425	+0.138	8	333.3	Medium / Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.461	+0.174	8	334.3	Medium / Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.483	+0.196	9	335.4	Medium / Medium
5	Brad Binder	01:29.496	+0.209	8	335.4	Medium / Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.527	+0.240	8	335.4	Medium / Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:29.600	+0.313	4	329.2	Medium / Medium
8	Marc Marquez	01:29.622	+0.335	6	333.3	Medium / Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	01:29.701	+0.414	7	331.2	Medium / Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.707	+0.420	9	332.3	Medium / Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:29.923	+0.636	9	334.3	Medium / Medium
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.077	+0.790	8	330.2	Medium / Medium

Sprint · 28.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	19:41.593	12	13	Medium / Medium	1:30.736	—	11	Medium
2	Brad Binder	+0.933	9	13	Medium / Medium	1:30.751	+0.02%	11	Medium
3	Luca Marini	+1.841	7	13	Medium / Medium	1:30.882	+0.16%	11	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	+3.503	6	13	Medium / Medium	1:30.973	+0.26%	10	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	+3.581	5	13	Medium / Medium	1:30.952	+0.24%	10	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+4.029	4	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.000	+0.29%	10	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	+4.121	3	13	Medium / Medium	1:30.896	+0.18%	10	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	+6.727	2	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.074	+0.37%	10	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	+7.323	1	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.037	+0.33%	9	Medium
10	Jack Miller	+9.240	0	13	Medium / Hard	1:31.374	+0.70%	10	Hard
11	Fabio Quartararo	+9.339	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.298	+0.62%	9	Medium
12	Joan Mir	+10.356	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.302	+0.62%	11	Medium
13	Enea Bastianini	+12.312	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.423	+0.76%	11	Medium
14	Raul Fernandez	+15.390	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.730	+1.10%	10	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	+15.535	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.496	+0.84%	9	Medium
16	Pol Espargaro	+15.644	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.762	+1.13%	10	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	+17.753	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.541	+0.89%	10	Medium
18	Maverick Viñales	+22.675	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.073	+0.37%	8	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	+37.854	0	13	Medium / Medium	1:31.261	+0.58%	9	Medium
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	5	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	9	Medium / Medium	1:31.280	+0.60%	6	Medium

Warm Up · 29.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.257	—	7	328.2	Medium / Hard	1:30.392	—	5	Hard
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.259	+0.002	7	331.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.390	+0.133	7	329.2	Medium / Hard	1:30.678	+0.32%	5	Hard
4	Pol Espargaro	01:30.401	+0.144	7	334.3	Hard / Hard	1:30.986	+0.66%	5	Hard
5	Alex Marquez	01:30.498	+0.241	7	330.2	Medium / Hard	1:30.713	+0.36%	5	Hard
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.503	+0.246	7	332.3	Medium / Hard	1:30.788	+0.44%	5	Hard
7	Maverick Viñales	01:30.503	+0.246	7	335.4	Hard / Hard	—			—
8	Johann Zarco	01:30.521	+0.264	7	334.3	Medium / Hard	1:31.212	+0.91%	5	Hard
9	Jorge Martin	01:30.564	+0.307	7	334.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
10	Luca Marini	01:30.566	+0.309	7	331.2	Medium / Hard	1:31.178	+0.87%	5	Hard
11	Joan Mir	01:30.605	+0.348	7	330.2	Medium / Hard	1:30.839	+0.50%	4	Hard
12	Brad Binder	01:30.630	+0.373	7	328.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.649	+0.392	7	330.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
14	Marc Marquez	01:30.741	+0.484	7	331.2	Medium / Hard	1:30.904	+0.57%	4	Hard
15	Enea Bastianini	01:30.810	+0.553	7	329.2	Medium / Hard	1:31.520	+1.25%	5	Hard
16	Jack Miller	01:30.811	+0.554	7	329.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	01:30.852	+0.595	6	328.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.896	+0.639	7	329.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.914	+0.657	7	327.2	Medium / Hard	1:31.408	+1.12%	5	Hard
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.935	+0.678	7	329.2	Hard / Hard	1:31.233	+0.93%	5	Hard
21	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.245	+0.988	7	334.3	Hard / Hard	1:32.218	+2.02%	5	Hard

Race · 29.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	39:40.045	25	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.364	+0.21%	24	Hard
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+0.253	20	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.267	+0.11%	23	Hard
3	Brad Binder	+0.114	16	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.328	+0.17%	24	Hard
4	Marco Bezzecchi	+2.005	13	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.292	+0.13%	23	Hard
5	Fabio Quartararo	+4.550	11	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.563	+0.43%	20	Hard
6	Marc Marquez	+5.362	10	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.615	+0.49%	23	Hard
7	Luca Marini	+6.778	9	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.443	+0.30%	21	Hard
8	Aleix Espargaro	+7.303	8	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.661	+0.54%	23	Hard
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+7.569	7	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.516	+0.38%	22	Hard
10	Johann Zarco	+9.377	6	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.751	+0.64%	23	Hard
11	Franco Morbidelli	+11.168	5	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.674	+0.55%	21	Hard
12	Joan Mir	+11.990	4	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.736	+0.62%	23	Hard
13	Enea Bastianini	+12.323	3	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.686	+0.57%	23	Hard
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+14.537	2	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.905	+0.81%	23	Hard
15	Raul Fernandez	+15.093	1	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.896	+0.80%	23	Hard
16	Jack Miller	+17.640	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.955	+0.86%	24	Hard
17	Augusto Fernandez	+21.307	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:31.985	+0.89%	24	Hard
18	Pol Espargaro	+21.435	0	26	Hard / Hard	1:32.129	+1.05%	23	Hard
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	12	Medium / Medium	1:31.170	—	10	Medium
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	23	Medium / Hard	1:31.525	+0.39%	17	Hard
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	6	Medium / Hard	1:32.293	+1.23%	4	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Aleix Espargaro	1:29.605*	—	+0.209	Medium	3
Luca Marini	1:29.622*	+0.017	+0.308	Medium	3
Francesco Bagnaia	1:29.725*	+0.120	+0.221	Medium	3
Marc Marquez	1:29.768*	+0.163	+0.210	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:30.006*	+0.401	+0.344	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.074	+0.469	+0.275	Medium	5
Augusto Fernandez	1:30.130*	+0.525	+0.437	Medium	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.262*	+0.657	+0.320	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:30.822	+1.217	+0.356	Medium	5
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.109	+1.504	+0.193	Medium	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.242*	+1.637	+0.359	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.276	+1.671	+0.512	Medium	7
Joan Mir	1:31.282	+1.677	+0.562	Medium	5
Raul Fernandez	1:31.307	+1.702	+0.667	Medium	7
Enea Bastianini	1:31.590	+1.985	+0.319	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	58%	3
2	Marc Marquez	40%	2 ✓
3	Jack Miller	30%	5
4	Pol Espargaro	20%	7
5	Franco Morbidelli	19%	8
6	Alex Marquez	9%	1 ✓
7	Miguel Oliveira	8%	10
8	Raul Fernandez	4%	4
9	Joan Mir	3%	9
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	6
11	Enea Bastianini	4%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	34%	64%	89%	9
2	Aleix Espargaro	24%	51%	81%	3
3	Jorge Martin	14%	47%	77%	1
4	Francesco Bagnaia	5%	33%	68%	6
5	Johann Zarco	4%	27%	53%	11
6	Marco Bezzecchi	7%	23%	55%	4
7	Fabio Quartararo	1%	11%	39%	10
8	Luca Marini	3%	13%	38%	2
9	Brad Binder	3%	9%	28%	5
10	Alex Marquez	2%	8%	25%	7
11	Marc Marquez	3%	11%	29%	8
12	Augusto Fernandez	1%	4%	20%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	32%	68%	85%	95%	3%	1
Luca Marini	2	18%	48%	65%	79%	19%	3
Aleix Espargaro	3	10%	35%	53%	69%	27%	5
Marco Bezzecchi	4	10%	37%	60%	83%	13%	6
Brad Binder	5	8%	30%	57%	90%	3%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	6	6%	24%	48%	88%	3%	7
Alex Marquez	7	4%	14%	32%	70%	21%	8
Marc Marquez	8	3%	12%	28%	74%	10%	4
Maverick Viñales	9	2%	8%	19%	68%	8%	18
Fabio Quartararo	10	2%	5%	14%	62%	8%	11
Johann Zarco	11	1%	5%	11%	50%	13%	9
Augusto Fernandez	12	1%	4%	8%	43%	13%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	1%	2%	5%	36%	8%	—
Raul Fernandez	14	1%	2%	5%	30%	4%	14
Jack Miller	15	1%	2%	4%	20%	8%	10
Takaaki Nakagami	16	0%	2%	3%	16%	13%	19
Pol Espargaro	17	0%	1%	2%	9%	21%	16
Franco Morbidelli	18	0%	1%	2%	8%	3%	15
Joan Mir	19	0%	1%	1%	4%	26%	12
Miguel Oliveira	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	9%	17
Enea Bastianini	21	0%	0%	1%	4%	12%	13

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	35%	61%	70%	76%	24%	1
Luca Marini	2	26%	62%	81%	91%	9%	7
Aleix Espargaro	3	7%	28%	51%	75%	23%	8
Marco Bezzecchi	4	7%	32%	58%	83%	15%	4
Brad Binder	5	15%	48%	70%	85%	14%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	6	5%	26%	49%	73%	26%	2
Alex Marquez	7	2%	12%	30%	69%	24%	—
Marc Marquez	8	3%	20%	42%	78%	17%	6
Maverick Viñales	9	0%	5%	17%	73%	12%	—
Fabio Quartararo	10	0%	2%	10%	62%	13%	5
Johann Zarco	11	0%	3%	12%	63%	19%	10
Augusto Fernandez	12	0%	1%	4%	44%	19%	17
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	0%	1%	5%	47%	19%	9
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	0%	0%	11%	18%	15
Jack Miller	15	0%	0%	0%	17%	25%	16
Takaaki Nakagami	16	0%	0%	1%	22%	14%	14
Pol Espargaro	17	0%	0%	0%	5%	21%	18
Franco Morbidelli	18	0%	0%	0%	6%	16%	11
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	0%	12%	28%	12
Miguel Oliveira	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	—
Enea Bastianini	21	0%	0%	0%	6%	20%	13

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Brad Binder	31% → 48%	+17	8% → 15%
Jorge Martin	52% → 61%	+9	26% → 35%
Marc Marquez	12% → 20%	+7	3% → 3%
Dropping
Aleix Espargaro	41% → 28%	−12	14% → 7%
Marco Bezzecchi	38% → 32%	−6	11% → 7%
Alex Marquez	17% → 12%	−5	3% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:30.736	—	+0.457	Medium	11
Brad Binder	1:30.751	+0.015	+0.327	Medium	11
Luca Marini	1:30.882	+0.146	+0.308	Medium	11
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.896	+0.160	+0.221	Medium	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.952	+0.216	+0.209	Medium	10
Marc Marquez	1:30.973	+0.237	+0.210	Medium	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.000	+0.264	+0.553	Medium	10
Johann Zarco	1:31.037	+0.301	+0.344	Medium	9
Maverick Viñales	1:31.073	+0.337	+0.292	Medium	8
Alex Marquez	1:31.074	+0.338	+0.356	Medium	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.261	+0.525	+0.359	Medium	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.280	+0.544	+0.320	Medium	6
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.298	+0.562	+0.275	Medium	9
Joan Mir	1:31.302	+0.566	+0.562	Medium	11
Jack Miller	1:31.374	+0.638	+0.105	Hard	10
Enea Bastianini	1:31.423	+0.687	+0.319	Medium	11
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.496	+0.760	+0.512	Medium	9
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.541	+0.805	+0.193	Medium	10
Raul Fernandez	1:31.730	+0.994	+0.667	Medium	10
Pol Espargaro	1:31.762	+1.026	+0.406	Medium	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,567 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.41%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.37%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.39%
S3	Raul Fernandez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Raul Fernandez +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S2	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.53%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%
S4	Jack Miller +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Franco Morbidelli +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.60%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%
S4	Jorge Martin	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.53%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.42%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.41%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.39%
S4	Valentino Rossi	Andrea Dovizioso +0.50%	Maverick Viñales +0.51%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

19/100

Position index

71%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 60% of the time (between 31% and 83%; 10 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	366	—
2	Jorge Martin	339	−27
3	Marco Bezzecchi	293	−73
4	Brad Binder	224	−142
5	Johann Zarco	187	−179
6	Aleix Espargaro	185	−181

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

12/25

Laps led by the winner

Miguel Oliveira

0.730 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P20 to P8.

Longest battle: Jack Miller vs Miguel Oliveira (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:39.896	—	+0.344	Wet-Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.924	+0.028	+0.193	Wet-Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:39.989	+0.093	+0.105	Wet-Medium	23
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.026	+0.130	+0.221	Wet-Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:40.163	+0.267	+0.210	Wet-Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:40.329	+0.433	+0.292	Wet-Medium	19
Enea Bastianini	1:40.347	+0.451	+0.319	Wet-Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:40.446	+0.550	+0.356	Wet-Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.446	+0.550	+0.209	Wet-Medium	22
Alex Rins	1:40.556	+0.660	+0.217	Wet-Medium	20

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Miguel OliveiraKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 12% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	2/22	9%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	3/21	14%
2022	1/24	4%
2019	2/22	9%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Medium	96%	+0.67%	−0.019	1	3	11.6
Wet-Soft	4%	+1.72%	−0.060	0	0	22.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.