Round 14 of 20 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2023

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

29.09 – 01.10.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	24:06.314	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.413	20
3	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.013	16
4	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+2.943	13
5	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+3.181	11
6	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.837	10
7	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+7.587	9
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+8.602	8
9	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+11.229	7
10	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+12.244	6
11	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+14.714	5
12	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.924	4
13	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Yamalube RS4GP Racing Team	+16.057	3
14	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+17.253	2
15	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+24.921	1
16	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+33.962	0
17	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+74.934	0
18	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+0.000	0
19	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.000	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	21:00.734	12
2	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+1.390	9
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.279	7
4	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.194	6
5	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+6.315	5
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+8.919	4
7	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+9.298	3
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+10.189	2
9	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.404	1
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+15.366	0
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+15.473	0
12	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+15.592	0
13	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+17.052	0
14	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+18.092	0
15	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.333	0
16	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.645	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+21.862	0
18	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Yamalube RS4GP Racing Team	+26.026	0
19	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+27.911	0
20	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+28.178	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Jorge Martin · 30% ✓	Jorge Martin · 30% · from P1	0.97 / 0.97	1.6 / 1.4
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 26% ✓	Jorge Martin · 26% · from P1	0.73 / 0.73	2.7 / 2.7
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 36% ✓	Jorge Martin · 36% · from P1	0.74 / 0.73	2.8 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:58.365	—	+0.344	Wet-Medium	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:58.487	+0.122	+0.209	Wet-Soft	9
Marc Marquez	1:58.549	+0.184	+0.210	Wet-Medium	9
Joan Mir	1:58.685	+0.320	+0.562	Wet-Medium	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:58.804	+0.439	+0.553	Wet-Medium	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:58.812	+0.447	+0.221	Wet-Medium	9
Maverick Viñales	1:58.826	+0.461	+0.292	Wet-Medium	8
Jorge Martin	1:58.845	+0.480	+0.457	Wet-Medium	9
Cal Crutchlow	1:58.859	+0.494	+0.729	Wet-Medium	8
Augusto Fernandez	1:58.999	+0.634	+0.437	Wet-Soft	9
Miguel Oliveira	1:59.018	+0.653	+0.193	Wet-Medium	8
Raul Fernandez	1:59.078	+0.713	+0.667	Wet-Medium	9
Stefan Bradl	1:59.085	+0.720	+0.530	Wet-Medium	8
Fabio Quartararo	1:59.177	+0.812	+0.275	Wet-Medium	8
Jack Miller	1:59.534	+1.169	+0.105	Wet-Soft	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:59.558	+1.193	+0.320	Wet-Medium	9
Takaaki Nakagami	2:00.117	+1.752	+0.359	Wet-Medium	9
Pol Espargaro	2:00.703	+2.338	+0.406	Wet-Soft	9
Michele Pirro	2:01.315	+2.950	+0.267	Wet-Medium	8
Franco Morbidelli	2:05.638	+7.273	+0.512	Medium	8

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

162

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

7/12

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.413 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P18 to P12.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (6 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

12/12

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.390 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P10 to P5.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jack Miller (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:13:41	Cal Crutchlow	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:15:34	Cal Crutchlow	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:18:40	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:02:39		Red flag	White flag displayed
Race	15:02:42	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:13:14	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:14:20	Maverick Viñales	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to incorrect bike change
Race	15:14:27	Cal Crutchlow	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to incorrect bike change
Race	15:14:58	Maverick Viñales	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:15:31	Cal Crutchlow	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:24:32	Raul Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to incorrect bike change
Race	15:25:23	Raul Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:28:24	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:28:31		Red flag	Red flag

Sprint: 9 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Michele Pirro (started P21).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Michele Pirro	21	1	+20
Stefan Bradl	20	3	+17
Cal Crutchlow	19	5	+14
Brad Binder	5	19	−14
Johann Zarco	10	20	−10
Jorge Martin	1	9	−8

Race stopped with a red flag: this compares with Saturday’s grid, but the restart used the order from the first part. Places gained are approximate.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marc Marquez	7→3	+3.7
Augusto Fernandez	13→7	+3.5
Aleix Espargaro	9→5	+3.0
Pol Espargaro	12→15	−5.1
Miguel Oliveira	16→18	−5.5
Maverick Viñales	8→19	−11.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Medium	71%	+1.00%	+0.034	1	3	10.0
Wet-Soft	24%	+1.12%	+0.067	0	0	8.3
Medium	5%	+6.76%	−1.244	0	0	17.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

23.0 °C

Air

max 23.3 °C

94%

Humidity

2.0 mm

Rain

4 km/h

Wind

gusts 19 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 29.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:45.192	—	16	311.2	Hard / Medium	1:47.373	+1.09%	5	Medium
2	Augusto Fernandez	01:45.330	+0.138	19	306.8	Hard / Soft	1:47.571	+1.27%	7	Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.510	+0.318	17	313.0	Medium / Medium	1:46.238	+0.02%	10	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:45.631	+0.439	18	313.0	Medium / Medium	1:46.690	+0.44%	5	Medium
5	Joan Mir	01:45.685	+0.493	15	310.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Brad Binder	01:45.747	+0.555	17	313.0	Medium / Medium	1:46.802	+0.55%	7	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:45.819	+0.627	18	313.0	Medium / Medium	1:46.449	+0.22%	5	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:45.902	+0.710	18	311.2	Medium / Medium	1:46.596	+0.36%	5	Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.952	+0.760	20	309.4	Medium / Medium	1:46.445	+0.21%	4	Medium
10	Raul Fernandez	01:45.966	+0.774	19	310.3	Medium / Medium	1:46.218	—	10	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:46.018	+0.826	15	312.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.027	+0.835	20	310.3	Medium / Medium	1:47.057	+0.79%	13	Medium
13	Marc Marquez	01:46.033	+0.841	19	313.0	Medium / Medium	1:46.901	+0.64%	6	Medium
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.160	+0.968	19	308.5	Medium / Medium	1:47.443	+1.15%	5	Medium
15	Pol Espargaro	01:46.181	+0.989	15	313.9	Medium / Medium	1:46.359	+0.13%	5	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.198	+1.006	18	312.1	Medium / Medium	1:47.845	+1.53%	4	Medium
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.229	+1.037	16	312.1	Medium / Medium	1:47.189	+0.91%	5	Medium
18	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.302	+1.110	16	312.1	Medium / Medium	1:50.026	+3.59%	5	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.334	+1.142	16	308.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Michele Pirro	01:47.132	+1.940	16	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:48.546	+2.19%	4	Medium
21	Alex Rins	01:47.587	+2.395	16	311.2	Soft / Medium	1:48.534	+2.18%	6	Medium

Practice · 29.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	01:43.489	—	22	315.7	Hard / Soft	1:45.060	—	5	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:43.518	+0.029	22	314.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:43.784	+0.295	20	309.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Jorge Martin	01:43.843	+0.354	24	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:45.552	+0.47%	7	Soft
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:43.945	+0.456	25	315.7	Hard / Soft	1:45.515	+0.43%	11	Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:43.947	+0.458	21	305.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Johann Zarco	01:44.062	+0.573	21	314.8	Hard / Soft	1:45.511	+0.43%	5	Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:44.117	+0.628	24	314.8	Hard / Soft	1:45.219	+0.15%	5	Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:44.219	+0.730	19	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Jack Miller	01:44.261	+0.772	23	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:45.412	+0.34%	7	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:44.317	+0.828	24	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:45.821	+0.72%	7	Medium
12	Joan Mir	01:44.428	+0.939	21	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.520	+1.031	21	309.4	Hard / Soft	1:45.176	+0.11%	8	Medium
14	Marc Marquez	01:44.574	+1.085	23	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:44.657	+1.168	20	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:46.404	+1.28%	7	Medium
16	Cal Crutchlow	01:44.709	+1.220	22	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	01:44.811	+1.322	17	309.4	Hard / Soft	1:45.727	+0.64%	5	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.928	+1.439	23	309.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:45.231	+1.742	24	306.8	Hard / Soft	1:46.902	+1.75%	8	Medium
20	Michele Pirro	01:45.866	+2.377	22	308.5	Hard / Soft	1:47.362	+2.19%	5	Soft
21	Alex Rins	01:47.236	+3.747	6	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 30.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:44.622	—	14	315.7	Hard / Soft	1:45.472	+0.16%	5	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.989	+0.367	14	315.7	Hard / Soft	1:45.300	—	6	Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:45.007	+0.385	12	314.8	Soft / Soft	1:45.812	+0.49%	5	Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.021	+0.399	10	307.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Brad Binder	01:45.058	+0.436	10	312.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:45.089	+0.467	10	314.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Jorge Martin	01:45.148	+0.526	15	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:45.462	+0.15%	6	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.160	+0.538	13	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:45.594	+0.28%	6	Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	01:45.185	+0.563	10	309.4	Hard / Soft	1:45.763	+0.44%	5	Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:45.186	+0.564	13	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:45.202	+0.580	13	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:46.429	+1.07%	6	Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.245	+0.623	13	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:45.423	+0.12%	4	Soft
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:45.318	+0.696	11	306.8	Hard / Soft	1:45.628	+0.31%	9	Soft
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.335	+0.713	8	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Johann Zarco	01:45.343	+0.721	11	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	01:45.537	+0.915	10	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:46.071	+0.73%	5	Soft
17	Joan Mir	01:45.862	+1.240	11	313.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.009	+1.387	13	309.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Stefan Bradl	01:46.287	+1.665	12	311.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.490	+1.868	12	311.2	Hard / Soft	1:46.866	+1.49%	4	Soft
21	Michele Pirro	01:46.617	+1.995	10	308.5	Hard / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 30.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:43.997	—	7	312.1	Hard / Soft
2	Raul Fernandez	01:44.049	+0.052	7	309.4	Hard / Soft
3	Augusto Fernandez	01:44.129	+0.132	7	309.4	Hard / Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.138	+0.141	8	309.4	Hard / Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:44.150	+0.153	7	311.2	Hard / Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:44.427	+0.430	7	313.9	Hard / Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:44.521	+0.524	7	311.2	Hard / Soft
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.626	+0.629	8	309.4	Hard / Soft
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:45.273	+1.276	4	311.2	Hard / Soft
10	Stefan Bradl	01:45.451	+1.454	8	310.3	Hard / Soft
11	Michele Pirro	01:45.707	+1.710	7	311.2	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 30.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:43.198	—	8	316.7	Hard / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:43.369	+0.171	8	314.8	Hard / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:43.551	+0.353	8	313.0	Soft / Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:43.624	+0.426	6	315.7	Medium / Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:43.709	+0.511	8	315.7	Hard / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:43.808	+0.610	8	306.8	Hard / Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:43.812	+0.614	7	313.0	Hard / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:43.815	+0.617	7	313.9	Hard / Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:43.822	+0.624	8	313.0	Hard / Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:43.851	+0.653	8	314.8	Hard / Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	01:44.054	+0.856	8	309.4	Hard / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:44.096	+0.898	8	312.1	Hard / Soft

Sprint · 30.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	21:00.734	12	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.385	—	10	Soft
2	Brad Binder	+1.390	9	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.661	+0.26%	9	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+5.279	7	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.794	+0.39%	10	Soft
4	Jack Miller	+6.194	6	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.809	+0.41%	10	Soft
5	Johann Zarco	+6.315	5	12	Hard / Soft	1:44.917	+0.51%	10	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+8.919	4	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.112	+0.70%	10	Soft
7	Marc Marquez	+9.298	3	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.282	+0.86%	10	Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+10.189	2	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.134	+0.72%	9	Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	+12.404	1	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.377	+0.95%	8	Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	+15.366	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.593	+1.16%	9	Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	+15.473	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.621	+1.18%	9	Soft
12	Augusto Fernandez	+15.592	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.554	+1.12%	10	Soft
13	Joan Mir	+17.052	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.782	+1.34%	9	Soft
14	Miguel Oliveira	+18.092	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:45.810	+1.37%	10	Soft
15	Fabio Quartararo	+19.333	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:46.106	+1.65%	8	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	+19.645	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:46.020	+1.57%	10	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+21.862	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:46.104	+1.65%	8	Soft
18	Cal Crutchlow	+26.026	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:46.420	+1.95%	7	Soft
19	Michele Pirro	+27.911	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:46.546	+2.07%	10	Soft
20	Stefan Bradl	+28.178	0	12	Hard / Soft	1:46.484	+2.01%	10	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	8	Hard / Soft	1:44.902	+0.50%	6	Soft

Warm Up · 01.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jack Miller	01:46.047	—	6	309.4	Soft / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:46.544	+0.497	5	305.0	Soft / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.630	+0.583	6	305.9	Medium / Soft
4	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.063	+1.016	5	304.2	Soft / Medium
5	Raul Fernandez	01:47.206	+1.159	5	306.8	Soft / Soft
6	Jorge Martin	01:47.342	+1.295	5	311.2	Hard / Soft
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.639	+1.592	5	313.0	Medium / Soft
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.670	+1.623	5	307.6	Medium / Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:47.870	+1.823	5	305.9	Soft / Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:48.122	+2.075	5	310.3	Soft / Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:48.481	+2.434	5	312.1	Soft / Soft
12	Michele Pirro	01:48.850	+2.803	5	305.9	Soft / Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:49.148	+3.101	5	306.8	Medium / Soft
14	Stefan Bradl	01:49.447	+3.400	5	304.2	Soft / Soft
15	Johann Zarco	01:52.910	+6.863	5	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:53.144	+7.097	4	298.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.048	+8.001	5	303.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.498	+8.451	5	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
19	Brad Binder	01:55.053	+9.006	5	309.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:55.069	+9.022	4	300.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium
21	Maverick Viñales	01:55.681	+9.634	5	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium

Race · 01.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	24:06.314	25	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:58.845	+0.41%	9	Wet-Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+1.413	20	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:58.812	+0.38%	9	Wet-Medium
3	Marc Marquez	+2.013	16	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:58.549	+0.16%	9	Wet-Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	+2.943	13	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:58.804	+0.37%	9	Wet-Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	+3.181	11	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.487	+0.10%	9	Wet-Soft
6	Jack Miller	+6.837	10	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:59.534	+0.99%	9	Wet-Soft
7	Augusto Fernandez	+7.587	9	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:58.999	+0.54%	9	Wet-Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+8.602	8	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:59.558	+1.01%	9	Wet-Medium
9	Raul Fernandez	+11.229	7	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:59.078	+0.60%	9	Wet-Medium
10	Fabio Quartararo	+12.244	6	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:59.177	+0.69%	8	Wet-Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	+14.714	5	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:00.117	+1.48%	9	Wet-Medium
12	Joan Mir	+14.924	4	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:58.685	+0.27%	9	Wet-Medium
13	Cal Crutchlow	+16.057	3	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:58.859	+0.42%	8	Wet-Medium
14	Stefan Bradl	+17.253	2	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:59.085	+0.61%	8	Wet-Medium
15	Pol Espargaro	+24.921	1	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:00.703	+1.98%	9	Wet-Soft
16	Michele Pirro	+33.962	0	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:01.315	+2.49%	8	Wet-Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	+74.934	0	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:05.638	+6.15%	8	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	+0.000	0	11	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:59.018	+0.55%	8	Wet-Medium
19	Maverick Viñales	+0.000	0	11	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:58.826	+0.39%	8	Wet-Medium
Retired	Brad Binder		0	5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	12	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:58.365	—	9	Wet-Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Miguel Oliveira	57%	6
2	Marc Marquez	40%	1 ✓
3	Raul Fernandez	30%	2 ✓
4	Fabio Quartararo	21%	4
5	Joan Mir	20%	5
6	Franco Morbidelli	9%	7
7	Augusto Fernandez	8%	3
8	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	8
9	Cal Crutchlow	2%	9
10	Stefan Bradl	3%	10
11	Michele Pirro	4%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	34%	63%	89%	2
2	Marco Bezzecchi	24%	51%	81%	4
3	Brad Binder	14%	48%	78%	5
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	5%	34%	68%	6
5	Jorge Martin	4%	27%	53%	1
6	Aleix Espargaro	7%	23%	55%	9
7	Jack Miller	1%	10%	39%	3
8	Marc Marquez	3%	13%	38%	7
9	Maverick Viñales	3%	8%	27%	8
10	Johann Zarco	2%	8%	26%	10
11	Raul Fernandez	3%	11%	30%	11
12	Pol Espargaro	1%	4%	19%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	30%	64%	81%	93%	4%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	2	21%	56%	77%	94%	4%	3
Jack Miller	3	13%	44%	66%	86%	9%	4
Marco Bezzecchi	4	10%	34%	55%	81%	14%	6
Brad Binder	5	7%	27%	52%	89%	4%	2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	4%	19%	41%	82%	9%	8
Marc Marquez	7	5%	17%	36%	81%	5%	7
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	12%	27%	75%	9%	9
Aleix Espargaro	9	2%	6%	16%	59%	20%	—
Johann Zarco	10	2%	5%	13%	56%	14%	5
Raul Fernandez	11	2%	5%	11%	55%	4%	10
Pol Espargaro	12	1%	2%	6%	34%	25%	11
Augusto Fernandez	13	1%	2%	5%	31%	14%	12
Fabio Quartararo	14	0%	2%	4%	26%	9%	15
Joan Mir	15	0%	1%	3%	16%	30%	13
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	10%	14
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	1%	2%	10%	4%	16
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	1%	2%	8%	14%	17
Cal Crutchlow	19	0%	1%	1%	5%	12%	18
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	16%	20
Michele Pirro	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	36%	63%	72%	77%	23%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	2	20%	48%	62%	71%	27%	2
Jack Miller	3	14%	44%	62%	75%	25%	6
Marco Bezzecchi	4	5%	25%	48%	80%	16%	4
Brad Binder	5	17%	52%	72%	86%	13%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	3%	21%	43%	76%	21%	8
Marc Marquez	7	2%	11%	30%	73%	17%	3
Maverick Viñales	8	1%	8%	25%	75%	13%	19
Aleix Espargaro	9	2%	12%	30%	68%	24%	5
Johann Zarco	10	2%	13%	34%	75%	18%	—
Raul Fernandez	11	0%	1%	7%	49%	20%	9
Pol Espargaro	12	0%	1%	6%	48%	21%	15
Augusto Fernandez	13	0%	1%	7%	54%	11%	7
Fabio Quartararo	14	0%	0%	1%	21%	14%	10
Joan Mir	15	0%	0%	1%	24%	26%	12
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	0%	1%	20%	20%	18
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	0%	0%	14%	16%	17
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	0%	8%	15%	11
Cal Crutchlow	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	26%	13
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	14
Michele Pirro	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	21%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Brad Binder	33% → 52%	+19	9% → 17%
Jorge Martin	53% → 63%	+10	26% → 36%
Johann Zarco	7% → 13%	+6	2% → 2%
Dropping
Marco Bezzecchi	39% → 25%	−14	13% → 5%
Marc Marquez	19% → 11%	−8	4% → 2%
Maverick Viñales	15% → 8%	−7	4% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:44.385	—	+0.457	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:44.661	+0.276	+0.327	Soft	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:44.794	+0.409	+0.221	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:44.809	+0.424	+0.105	Soft	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:44.902	+0.517	+0.209	Soft	6
Johann Zarco	1:44.917	+0.532	+0.344	Soft	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:45.112	+0.727	+0.553	Soft	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:45.134	+0.749	+0.320	Soft	9
Marc Marquez	1:45.282	+0.897	+0.210	Soft	10
Maverick Viñales	1:45.377	+0.992	+0.292	Soft	8
Augusto Fernandez	1:45.554	+1.169	+0.437	Soft	10
Raul Fernandez	1:45.593	+1.208	+0.667	Soft	9
Pol Espargaro	1:45.621	+1.236	+0.406	Soft	9
Joan Mir	1:45.782	+1.397	+0.562	Soft	9
Miguel Oliveira	1:45.810	+1.425	+0.193	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:46.020	+1.635	+0.512	Soft	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:46.104	+1.719	+0.359	Soft	8
Fabio Quartararo	1:46.106	+1.721	+0.275	Soft	8
Cal Crutchlow	1:46.420	+2.035	+0.729	Soft	7
Stefan Bradl	1:46.484	+2.099	+0.530	Soft	10
Michele Pirro	1:46.546	+2.161	+0.267	Soft	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	292	—
2	Jorge Martin	279	−13
3	Marco Bezzecchi	248	−44
4	Brad Binder	192	−100
5	Aleix Espargaro	160	−132
6	Johann Zarco	157	−135

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/24

Laps led by the winner

Jack Miller

3.409 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Cal Crutchlow, from P23 to P15.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Miguel Oliveira (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:45.779	—	+0.105	Hard	22
Brad Binder	1:46.004	+0.225	+0.327	Hard	19
Jorge Martin	1:46.106	+0.327	+0.457	Medium	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:46.146	+0.367	+0.193	Hard	22
Marc Marquez	1:46.161	+0.382	+0.210	Soft	21
Luca Marini	1:46.168	+0.389	+0.308	Hard	22
Enea Bastianini	1:46.194	+0.415	+0.319	Soft	21
Maverick Viñales	1:46.238	+0.459	+0.292	Medium	20
Francesco Bagnaia	1:46.265	+0.486	+0.221	Hard	19
Fabio Quartararo	1:46.278	+0.499	+0.275	Medium	20

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	40%	+0.75%	−0.002	0	1	11.1
Hard	36%	+0.46%	−0.003	1	2	8.7
Soft	24%	+0.72%	+0.006	0	0	11.8

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.