Round 15 of 20 Aftermath

Indonesian Grand Prix 2023

4.313 m · 27 laps · since 2022

13.10 – 15.10.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:20.293	25
2	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.306	20
3	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+0.433	16
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.962	13
5	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+11.111	11
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.228	10
7	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.474	9
8	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+12.684	8
9	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+22.540	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+30.468	6
11	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+30.823	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+36.639	4
13	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+42.864	3
14	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+0.000	2
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	19:49.711	12
2	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+1.131	9
3	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+2.081	7
4	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+2.720	6
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+3.121	5
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+4.203	4
7	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.981	3
8	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.465	2
9	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.852	1
10	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+8.942	0
11	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+12.034	0
12	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+14.015	0
13	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+14.823	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+15.699	0
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+23.331	0
16	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+24.894	0
17	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+27.169	0
18	Alex Rins	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+28.980	0
19	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+43.090	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Luca Marini · 26%	Jorge Martin · 6% · from P6	0.69 / 0.69	2.6 / 2.6
Race (after the grid)	Luca Marini · 30%	Francesco Bagnaia · 1% · from P13	0.56 / 0.56	3.0 / 3.1
Race (after the sprint)	Luca Marini · 39%	Francesco Bagnaia · 1% · from P13	0.71 / 0.56	2.3 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:31.359	—	+0.457	Medium	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.500	+0.141	+0.275	Medium	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.541	+0.182	+0.221	Medium	25
Maverick Viñales	1:31.601	+0.242	+0.292	Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:31.629	+0.270	+0.319	Medium	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.680	+0.321	+0.320	Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:31.827	+0.468	+0.327	Medium	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.852	+0.493	+0.553	Medium	25
Joan Mir	1:31.957	+0.598	+0.562	Medium	9
Jack Miller	1:31.971	+0.612	+0.105	Medium	25
Augusto Fernandez	1:32.092	+0.733	+0.437	Medium	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.123	+0.764	+0.512	Medium	19
Alex Rins	1:32.245	+0.886	+0.217	Medium	25
Marc Marquez	1:32.261	+0.902	+0.210	Medium	5
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.490	+1.131	+0.209	Soft	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.540	+1.181	+0.193	Soft	24
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.578	+1.219	+0.359	Soft	24
Raul Fernandez	1:32.788	+1.429	+0.667	Soft	24
Johann Zarco	1:33.718	+2.359	+0.344	Medium	12

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

8/27

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.306 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P21 to P9.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Francesco Bagnaia (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/13

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.131 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P20 to P11.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Francesco Bagnaia (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:03:27	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:05:34	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:05:34	Brad Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:13:28	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:03:45	Enea Bastianini	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	15:03:45	Luca Marini	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	15:04:44	Luca Marini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:05:20	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:06:20	Enea Bastianini	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:08:11	Luca Marini	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:09:19	Brad Binder	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Race	15:10:47	Brad Binder	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:11:05	Luca Marini	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:14:21	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:20:29	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:20:44	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:21:37	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:23:32	Brad Binder	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Race	15:24:23	Brad Binder	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	15:25:18	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for riders #10 & #23

Sprint: 5 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P6).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Takaaki Nakagami	20	12	+8
Francesco Bagnaia	13	6	+7
Pol Espargaro	16	10	+6
Enea Bastianini	11	21	−10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	14	−7
Franco Morbidelli	15	20	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	13→1	+9.5
Alex Rins	21→9	+6.7
Takaaki Nakagami	20→11	+4.0
Miguel Oliveira	12→12	−2.1
Franco Morbidelli	15→14	−2.2
Aleix Espargaro	3→10	−5.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	76%	+0.60%	−0.032	1	3	5.9
Soft	24%	+1.31%	+0.082	0	0	11.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

30.3 °C

Air

max 31.0 °C

67%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

19 km/h

Wind

gusts 43 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 13.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:31.811	—	21	313.0	— / —	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:31.913	+0.102	21	309.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.347	+0.536	20	311.2	Medium / Medium	1:35.371	+1.58%	8	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.541	+0.730	22	308.5	— / —	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.552	+0.741	18	307.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.570	+0.759	20	310.3	Soft / Medium	1:34.768	+0.93%	5	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:32.646	+0.835	21	312.1	Hard / Medium	1:34.920	+1.10%	7	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:32.668	+0.857	17	311.2	— / —	—			—
9	Enea Bastianini	01:32.763	+0.952	19	306.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Luca Marini	01:32.811	+1.000	19	306.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.194	+0.32%	10	Medium
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.851	+1.040	20	305.0	Soft / Medium	1:35.409	+1.62%	5	Medium
12	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.868	+1.057	19	310.3	— / —	—			—
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.878	+1.067	20	308.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
14	Marc Marquez	01:32.893	+1.082	22	311.2	Hard / Medium	1:35.219	+1.41%	11	Medium
15	Johann Zarco	01:33.101	+1.290	19	310.3	— / —	—			—
16	Augusto Fernandez	01:33.139	+1.328	20	307.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	01:33.248	+1.437	19	306.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.891	—	5	Medium
18	Joan Mir	01:33.431	+1.620	19	311.2	Hard / Medium	1:36.314	+2.58%	8	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.447	+1.636	15	308.5	— / —	—			—
20	Alex Marquez	01:33.556	+1.745	13	309.4	— / —	—			—
21	Alex Rins	01:33.660	+1.849	18	305.9	Soft / Medium	1:35.950	+2.19%	10	Medium
22	Pol Espargaro	01:34.547	+2.736	18	307.6	Soft / Medium	1:38.480	+4.89%	9	Medium

Practice · 13.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.474	—	23	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:32.994	+0.88%	6	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:30.628	+0.154	25	313.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.918	+0.79%	5	Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.644	+0.170	25	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:32.456	+0.29%	6	Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:30.762	+0.288	19	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.467	+2.47%	5	Medium
5	Jorge Martin	01:30.874	+0.400	27	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:32.237	+0.06%	5	Soft
6	Marc Marquez	01:31.106	+0.632	26	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:34.277	+2.27%	5	Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.199	+0.725	26	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:33.682	+1.62%	10	Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.207	+0.733	22	307.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.186	—	5	Soft
9	Jack Miller	01:31.216	+0.742	22	313.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.229	+0.755	26	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:32.506	+0.35%	11	Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:31.276	+0.802	23	313.0	Soft / Soft	1:35.026	+3.08%	6	Soft
12	Luca Marini	01:31.367	+0.893	20	311.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Johann Zarco	01:31.457	+0.983	24	313.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.784	+0.65%	10	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	01:31.500	+1.026	25	311.2	Soft / Soft	1:32.404	+0.24%	6	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.561	+1.087	23	311.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.635	+1.161	23	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:33.936	+1.90%	6	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.655	+1.181	27	309.4	Soft / Soft	1:34.054	+2.03%	5	Medium
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.806	+1.332	23	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:34.122	+2.10%	10	Medium
19	Joan Mir	01:32.127	+1.653	21	312.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Enea Bastianini	01:32.208	+1.734	20	309.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.378	+1.29%	6	Medium
21	Alex Rins	01:32.426	+1.952	20	309.4	Hard / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:30.998	—	16	314.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.028	+0.030	17	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:31.552	—	8	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:31.094	+0.096	15	314.8	Soft / Soft	1:32.512	+1.05%	6	Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.207	+0.209	16	311.2	Soft / Soft	1:31.574	+0.02%	7	Soft
5	Luca Marini	01:31.252	+0.254	15	312.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Johann Zarco	01:31.374	+0.376	13	314.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.445	+0.447	13	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.483	+1.02%	5	Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:31.463	+0.465	17	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:32.650	+1.20%	10	Medium
9	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.537	+0.539	13	311.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.140	+1.74%	5	Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.590	+0.592	15	307.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.857	+1.43%	5	Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.630	+0.632	14	314.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.703	+0.705	16	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.396	+0.92%	10	Soft
13	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.709	+0.711	13	314.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Enea Bastianini	01:31.727	+0.729	14	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:35.410	+4.21%	6	Soft
15	Brad Binder	01:31.761	+0.763	14	314.8	Hard / Soft	1:32.671	+1.22%	5	Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.769	+0.771	9	313.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.986	+1.57%	4	Soft
17	Pol Espargaro	01:31.807	+0.809	15	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.084	+2.77%	5	Soft
18	Raul Fernandez	01:31.818	+0.820	12	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.689	+1.24%	5	Soft
19	Marc Marquez	01:31.992	+0.994	15	312.1	Hard / Soft	1:32.487	+1.02%	6	Soft
20	Joan Mir	01:32.134	+1.136	16	312.1	Soft / Soft	1:32.899	+1.47%	9	Soft
21	Alex Rins	01:32.410	+1.412	10	305.9	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Luca Marini	01:30.383	—	9	314.8	Soft / Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	01:30.527	+0.144	9	313.0	Hard / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.626	+0.243	9	316.7	Soft / Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:30.713	+0.330	6	316.7	Soft / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.729	+0.346	9	311.2	Soft / Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:31.006	+0.623	9	314.8	Soft / Soft
7	Raul Fernandez	01:31.031	+0.648	9	311.2	Soft / Soft
8	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.034	+0.651	9	311.2	Soft / Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:31.143	+0.760	9	312.1	Soft / Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.192	+0.809	9	309.4	Soft / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:31.458	+1.075	9	307.6	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Luca Marini	01:29.978	—	5	313.9	Soft / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:30.009	+0.031	8	314.8	Soft / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.132	+0.154	9	313.0	Soft / Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.516	+0.538	9	313.9	Soft / Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:30.698	+0.720	9	315.7	Soft / Soft
6	Jorge Martin	01:30.742	+0.764	7	316.7	Hard / Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.766	+0.788	9	310.3	Soft / Soft
8	Marc Marquez	01:30.864	+0.886	7	313.0	Soft / Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.908	+0.930	6	314.8	Hard / Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:30.970	+0.992	8	313.0	Soft / Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:31.061	+1.083	7	313.0	Soft / Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.193	+1.215	8	315.7	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	19:49.711	12	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.124	—	10	Soft
2	Luca Marini	+1.131	9	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.186	+0.07%	11	Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	+2.081	7	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.127	+0.00%	11	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	+2.720	6	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.264	+0.15%	11	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	+3.121	5	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.523	+0.44%	11	Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+4.203	4	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.345	+0.24%	10	Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	+4.981	3	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.429	+0.34%	11	Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	+5.465	2	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.441	+0.35%	10	Soft
9	Jack Miller	+7.852	1	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.376	+0.28%	11	Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	+8.942	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.650	+0.58%	11	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	+12.034	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:31.788	+0.73%	10	Soft
12	Johann Zarco	+14.015	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:31.841	+0.79%	11	Soft
13	Augusto Fernandez	+14.823	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.114	+1.09%	10	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	+15.699	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.027	+0.99%	11	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	+23.331	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.470	+1.48%	11	Soft
16	Joan Mir	+24.894	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:32.094	+1.06%	11	Soft
17	Pol Espargaro	+27.169	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.591	+1.61%	11	Soft
18	Alex Rins	+28.980	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.742	+1.78%	11	Soft
19	Brad Binder	+43.090	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.201	+1.18%	10	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	7	Soft / Soft	1:31.559	+0.48%	4	Soft
Out on lap 1	Marc Marquez		0	0	— / —	—			—

Warm Up · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:31.043	—	7	313.9	Medium / Medium	1:31.683	—	5	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:31.127	+0.084	7	313.9	Soft / Medium	1:31.826	+0.16%	5	Medium
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.279	+0.236	7	306.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.339	+0.296	6	310.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	01:31.362	+0.319	7	313.0	Hard / Medium	1:32.536	+0.93%	5	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.409	+0.366	7	311.2	Soft / Medium	1:33.961	+2.49%	5	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.448	+0.405	7	313.9	Hard / Medium	1:32.242	+0.61%	5	Medium
8	Enea Bastianini	01:31.470	+0.427	7	308.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:31.501	+0.458	7	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:32.961	+1.39%	5	Medium
10	Luca Marini	01:31.524	+0.481	7	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.833	+3.44%	5	Medium
11	Marc Marquez	01:31.666	+0.623	7	311.2	Soft / Medium	1:32.899	+1.33%	5	Medium
12	Brad Binder	01:31.670	+0.627	7	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:32.538	+0.93%	5	Soft
13	Pol Espargaro	01:31.701	+0.658	7	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.299	+0.67%	5	Soft
14	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.746	+0.703	7	308.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.573	+0.97%	5	Soft
15	Alex Rins	01:31.820	+0.777	7	308.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.980	+1.42%	5	Medium
16	Joan Mir	01:31.879	+0.836	7	311.2	Soft / Medium	1:32.471	+0.86%	5	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	01:31.900	+0.857	6	309.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.916	+0.873	7	311.2	Soft / Medium	1:32.666	+1.07%	4	Medium
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.057	+1.014	7	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:32.752	+1.17%	5	Medium
20	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.409	+1.366	7	314.8	Soft / Medium	1:32.968	+1.40%	5	Medium
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.494	+2.451	4	308.5	Soft / Medium	—			—

Race · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	41:20.293	25	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.541	+0.20%	25	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	+0.306	20	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.601	+0.27%	24	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	+0.433	16	27	Soft / Medium	1:31.500	+0.15%	25	Medium
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+6.962	13	27	Soft / Medium	1:31.680	+0.35%	24	Medium
5	Marco Bezzecchi	+11.111	11	27	Soft / Medium	1:31.852	+0.54%	25	Medium
6	Brad Binder	+11.228	10	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.827	+0.51%	25	Medium
7	Jack Miller	+12.474	9	27	Soft / Medium	1:31.971	+0.67%	25	Medium
8	Enea Bastianini	+12.684	8	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.629	+0.30%	25	Medium
9	Alex Rins	+22.540	7	27	Soft / Medium	1:32.245	+0.97%	25	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	+30.468	6	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.490	+1.24%	25	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	+30.823	5	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.578	+1.33%	24	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	+36.639	4	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.540	+1.29%	24	Soft
13	Raul Fernandez	+42.864	3	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.788	+1.56%	24	Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	+0.000	2	23	Soft / Medium	1:32.123	+0.84%	19	Medium
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	11	Medium / Medium	1:32.092	+0.80%	9	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	11	Soft / Medium	1:31.957	+0.66%	9	Medium
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	14	Hard / Medium	1:33.718	+2.58%	12	Medium
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	12	Soft / Medium	1:31.359	—	10	Medium
Retired	Luca Marini		0	4	Soft / Medium	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	7	Soft / Medium	1:32.261	+0.99%	5	Medium
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	1	Medium / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Augusto Fernandez	1:33.479	—	+0.437	Medium	5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Luca Marini	57%	1 ✓
2	Johann Zarco	40%	4
3	Franco Morbidelli	30%	5
4	Pol Espargaro	21%	6
5	Francesco Bagnaia	20%	3
6	Augusto Fernandez	9%	8
7	Takaaki Nakagami	8%	10
8	Raul Fernandez	4%	7
9	Enea Bastianini	2%	2 ✓
10	Joan Mir	3%	9
11	Alex Rins	4%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	34%	64%	89%	3
2	Maverick Viñales	24%	51%	81%	2
3	Jorge Martin	14%	48%	78%	6
4	Marco Bezzecchi	5%	34%	69%	9
5	Fabio Quartararo	4%	27%	53%	4
6	Brad Binder	7%	23%	55%	5
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	11%	39%	7
8	Jack Miller	3%	13%	38%	10
9	Luca Marini	3%	8%	27%	1
10	Marc Marquez	2%	8%	26%	8
11	Miguel Oliveira	3%	11%	29%	12
12	Enea Bastianini	1%	4%	19%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Luca Marini	1	26%	55%	69%	79%	20%	2
Maverick Viñales	2	22%	56%	74%	89%	9%	4
Aleix Espargaro	3	12%	39%	56%	73%	24%	—
Fabio Quartararo	4	11%	36%	61%	88%	9%	5
Brad Binder	5	7%	29%	56%	90%	4%	19
Jorge Martin	6	6%	24%	47%	87%	4%	1
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	5%	18%	36%	80%	9%	6
Marc Marquez	8	3%	12%	29%	78%	4%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	9	2%	8%	19%	65%	14%	3
Jack Miller	10	2%	6%	14%	59%	9%	9
Enea Bastianini	11	1%	4%	10%	48%	13%	7
Miguel Oliveira	12	1%	4%	8%	43%	10%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	13	1%	3%	6%	36%	4%	8
Johann Zarco	14	1%	2%	4%	24%	14%	12
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	2%	4%	22%	4%	15
Pol Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	12%	23%	17
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	1%	2%	10%	4%	14
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	1%	1%	6%	14%	13
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	28%	16
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	1%	1%	4%	14%	11
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	1%	3%	14%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Luca Marini	1	39%	71%	83%	91%	7%	—
Maverick Viñales	2	23%	58%	75%	86%	13%	2
Aleix Espargaro	3	1%	11%	25%	65%	23%	10
Fabio Quartararo	4	3%	21%	43%	81%	13%	3
Brad Binder	5	0%	2%	9%	54%	14%	6
Jorge Martin	6	14%	43%	61%	75%	23%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	6%	27%	49%	75%	20%	4
Marc Marquez	8	1%	11%	28%	71%	17%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	9	10%	35%	59%	81%	15%	5
Jack Miller	10	1%	7%	20%	60%	25%	7
Enea Bastianini	11	1%	8%	21%	64%	21%	8
Miguel Oliveira	12	0%	2%	8%	49%	20%	12
Francesco Bagnaia	13	1%	5%	17%	57%	27%	1
Johann Zarco	14	0%	0%	2%	31%	19%	—
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	0%	0%	10%	16%	14
Pol Espargaro	16	0%	0%	0%	5%	21%	—
Raul Fernandez	17	0%	0%	0%	14%	19%	13
Augusto Fernandez	18	0%	0%	0%	10%	11%	—
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	26%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	0%	15%	15%	11
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	22%	9

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marco Bezzecchi	9% → 35%	+26	2% → 10%
Jorge Martin	20% → 43%	+23	5% → 14%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16% → 27%	+11	4% → 6%
Dropping
Aleix Espargaro	40% → 11%	−29	12% → 1%
Brad Binder	29% → 2%	−27	7% → 0%
Fabio Quartararo	37% → 21%	−16	12% → 3%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:31.124	—	+0.457	Soft	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.127	+0.003	+0.553	Soft	11
Luca Marini	1:31.186	+0.062	+0.308	Soft	11
Maverick Viñales	1:31.264	+0.140	+0.292	Soft	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.345	+0.221	+0.320	Soft	10
Jack Miller	1:31.376	+0.252	+0.105	Soft	11
Enea Bastianini	1:31.429	+0.305	+0.319	Soft	11
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.441	+0.317	+0.221	Soft	10
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.523	+0.399	+0.275	Soft	11
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.559	+0.435	+0.209	Soft	4
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.650	+0.526	+0.193	Soft	11
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.788	+0.664	+0.359	Soft	10
Johann Zarco	1:31.841	+0.717	+0.344	Soft	11
Raul Fernandez	1:32.027	+0.903	+0.667	Soft	11
Joan Mir	1:32.094	+0.970	+0.562	Soft	11
Augusto Fernandez	1:32.114	+0.990	+0.437	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:32.201	+1.077	+0.327	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.470	+1.346	+0.512	Soft	11
Pol Espargaro	1:32.591	+1.467	+0.406	Soft	11
Alex Rins	1:32.742	+1.618	+0.217	Soft	11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,313 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Pedro Acosta +0.36%	Enea Bastianini +0.51%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.46%	Maverick Viñales +0.52%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Aleix Espargaro +0.48%	Franco Morbidelli +0.50%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Pedro Acosta +0.11%	Luca Marini +0.23%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.58%	Alex Rins +0.91%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Luca Marini +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.19%	Miguel Oliveira +0.47%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Jorge Martin +0.42%	Enea Bastianini +0.50%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.21%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Maverick Viñales +0.36%	Enea Bastianini +0.43%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.39%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.03%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.68%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%	Miguel Oliveira +0.77%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

38/100

Position index

25%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.65

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 4 races (2022–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	319	—
2	Jorge Martin	316	−3
3	Marco Bezzecchi	265	−54
4	Brad Binder	201	−118
5	Aleix Espargaro	171	−148
6	Johann Zarco	162	−157

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

17/20

Laps led by the winner

Miguel Oliveira

2.205 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Darryn Binder, from P22 to P10.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Luca Marini (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:39.690	—	+0.275	Wet-Medium	18
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.696	+0.006	+0.193	Wet-Medium	18
Johann Zarco	1:39.733	+0.043	+0.344	Wet-Medium	18
Joan Mir	1:39.938	+0.248	+0.562	Wet-Medium	18
Alex Rins	1:40.067	+0.377	+0.217	Wet-Medium	18
Jack Miller	1:40.154	+0.464	+0.105	Wet-Medium	18
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.773	+1.083	+0.512	Wet-Medium	18
Enea Bastianini	1:40.954	+1.264	+0.319	Wet-Medium	18
Raul Fernandez	1:40.980	+1.290	+0.667	Wet-Medium	18
Darryn Binder	1:40.994	+1.304	+0.272	Wet-Medium	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Fermin AldeguerDucati
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Miguel OliveiraKTM

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/19	26%
2024	9/21	43%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	2/23	9%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Medium	100%	+1.44%	−0.144	1	3	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.