MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 15 of 20 Aftermath

Indonesian Grand Prix 2023

Pertamina Mandalika Circuit Indonesia

4.313 m · 27 laps · since 2022
13.10 – 15.10.2023
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team41:20.29325
2Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+0.30620
3Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+0.43316
4Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+6.96213
5Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+11.11111
6Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+11.22810
7Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+12.4749
8Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+12.6848
9Alex RinsHondaLCR Honda CASTROL+22.5407
10Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+30.4686
11Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+30.8235
12Miguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+36.6394
13Raul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+42.8643
14Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+0.0002
DNFAugusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3Retired0
DNFJoan MirHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFJohann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac RacingRetired0
DNFJorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac RacingRetired0
DNFLuca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing TeamRetired0
DNFMarc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFPol EspargaroKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3Retired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing19:49.71112
2Luca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+1.1319
3Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+2.0817
4Maverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia Racing+2.7206
5Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+3.1215
6Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+4.2034
7Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+4.9813
8Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+5.4652
9Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+7.8521
10Miguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+8.9420
11Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+12.0340
12Johann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+14.0150
13Augusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+14.8230
14Raul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+15.6990
15Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+23.3310
16Joan MirHondaRepsol Honda Team+24.8940
17Pol EspargaroKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+27.1690
18Alex RinsHondaLCR Honda CASTROL+28.9800
19Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+43.0900
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0
DNFMarc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda TeamOut on lap 10

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintLuca Marini · 26%Jorge Martin · 6% · from P60.69 / 0.692.6 / 2.6
Race (after the grid)Luca Marini · 30%Francesco Bagnaia · 1% · from P130.56 / 0.563.0 / 3.1
Race (after the sprint)Luca Marini · 39%Francesco Bagnaia · 1% · from P130.71 / 0.562.3 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Jorge Martin1:31.359—+0.457Medium10
Fabio Quartararo1:31.500+0.141+0.275Medium25
Francesco Bagnaia1:31.541+0.182+0.221Medium25
Maverick Viñales1:31.601+0.242+0.292Medium24
Enea Bastianini1:31.629+0.270+0.319Medium25
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:31.680+0.321+0.320Medium24
Brad Binder1:31.827+0.468+0.327Medium25
Marco Bezzecchi1:31.852+0.493+0.553Medium25
Joan Mir1:31.957+0.598+0.562Medium9
Jack Miller1:31.971+0.612+0.105Medium25
Augusto Fernandez1:32.092+0.733+0.437Medium9
Franco Morbidelli1:32.123+0.764+0.512Medium19
Alex Rins1:32.245+0.886+0.217Medium25
Marc Marquez1:32.261+0.902+0.210Medium5
Aleix Espargaro1:32.490+1.131+0.209Soft25
Miguel Oliveira1:32.540+1.181+0.193Soft24
Takaaki Nakagami1:32.578+1.219+0.359Soft24
Raul Fernandez1:32.788+1.429+0.667Soft24
Johann Zarco1:33.718+2.359+0.344Medium12

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

61
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
3 leaders
8/27
Laps led by the winner
Francesco Bagnaia
0.306 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P21 to P9.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Francesco Bagnaia (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

65
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
5/13
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Martin
1.131 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P20 to P11.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Francesco Bagnaia (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:03:27Marc MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:05:34Aleix EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:05:34Brad BinderCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:13:28Aleix EspargaroRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race15:03:45Enea BastianiniLong lapLong lap penalty
Race15:03:45Luca MariniLong lapLong lap penalty
Race15:04:44Luca MariniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:05:20Pol EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:06:20Enea BastianiniLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race15:08:11Luca MariniLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race15:09:19Brad BinderLong lapLong lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Race15:10:47Brad BinderLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race15:11:05Luca MariniRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race15:14:21Marc MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:20:29Augusto FernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:20:44Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:21:37Jorge MartinCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:23:32Brad BinderLong lapLong lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Race15:24:23Brad BinderLong lapLong lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race15:25:18Johann ZarcoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
RaceSanctionFIM MotoGP Stewards long lap penalty for riders #10 & #23

Sprint: 5 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium76%+0.60%−0.032135.9
Soft24%+1.31%+0.0820011.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
30.3 °C
Air
max 31.0 °C
67%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
19 km/h
Wind
gusts 43 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 13.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin01:31.811—21313.0— / ———
2Maverick Viñales01:31.913+0.10221309.4Medium / Medium——
3Aleix Espargaro01:32.347+0.53620311.2Medium / Medium1:35.371+1.58%8Medium
4Franco Morbidelli01:32.541+0.73022308.5— / ———
5Marco Bezzecchi01:32.552+0.74118307.6Soft / Medium——
6Francesco Bagnaia01:32.570+0.75920310.3Soft / Medium1:34.768+0.93%5Medium
7Jack Miller01:32.646+0.83521312.1Hard / Medium1:34.920+1.10%7Medium
8Brad Binder01:32.668+0.85717311.2— / ———
9Enea Bastianini01:32.763+0.95219306.8Soft / Medium——
10Luca Marini01:32.811+1.00019306.8Soft / Medium1:34.194+0.32%10Medium
11Fabio Di Giannantonio01:32.851+1.04020305.0Soft / Medium1:35.409+1.62%5Medium
12Fabio Quartararo01:32.868+1.05719310.3— / ———
13Takaaki Nakagami01:32.878+1.06720308.5Hard / Medium——
14Marc Marquez01:32.893+1.08222311.2Hard / Medium1:35.219+1.41%11Medium
15Johann Zarco01:33.101+1.29019310.3— / ———
16Augusto Fernandez01:33.139+1.32820307.6Soft / Medium——
17Raul Fernandez01:33.248+1.43719306.8Medium / Medium1:33.891—5Medium
18Joan Mir01:33.431+1.62019311.2Hard / Medium1:36.314+2.58%8Medium
19Miguel Oliveira01:33.447+1.63615308.5— / ———
20Alex Marquez01:33.556+1.74513309.4— / ———
21Alex Rins01:33.660+1.84918305.9Soft / Medium1:35.950+2.19%10Medium
22Pol Espargaro01:34.547+2.73618307.6Soft / Medium1:38.480+4.89%9Medium
Practice · 13.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Aleix Espargaro01:30.474—23313.9Soft / Soft1:32.994+0.88%6Soft
2Maverick Viñales01:30.628+0.15425313.0Soft / Soft1:32.918+0.79%5Soft
3Marco Bezzecchi01:30.644+0.17025313.9Soft / Soft1:32.456+0.29%6Soft
4Brad Binder01:30.762+0.28819313.9Soft / Soft1:34.467+2.47%5Medium
5Jorge Martin01:30.874+0.40027312.1Soft / Soft1:32.237+0.06%5Soft
6Marc Marquez01:31.106+0.63226312.1Soft / Soft1:34.277+2.27%5Soft
7Miguel Oliveira01:31.199+0.72526312.1Soft / Soft1:33.682+1.62%10Soft
8Fabio Di Giannantonio01:31.207+0.73322307.6Soft / Soft1:32.186—5Soft
9Jack Miller01:31.216+0.74222313.0Soft / Soft——
10Fabio Quartararo01:31.229+0.75526312.1Soft / Soft1:32.506+0.35%11Soft
11Pol Espargaro01:31.276+0.80223313.0Soft / Soft1:35.026+3.08%6Soft
12Luca Marini01:31.367+0.89320311.2Soft / Soft——
13Johann Zarco01:31.457+0.98324313.0Soft / Soft1:32.784+0.65%10Soft
14Raul Fernandez01:31.500+1.02625311.2Soft / Soft1:32.404+0.24%6Soft
15Franco Morbidelli01:31.561+1.08723311.2Soft / Soft——
16Francesco Bagnaia01:31.635+1.16123313.9Soft / Soft1:33.936+1.90%6Soft
17Takaaki Nakagami01:31.655+1.18127309.4Soft / Soft1:34.054+2.03%5Medium
18Augusto Fernandez01:31.806+1.33223310.3Soft / Soft1:34.122+2.10%10Medium
19Joan Mir01:32.127+1.65321312.1Soft / Soft——
20Enea Bastianini01:32.208+1.73420309.4Soft / Soft1:33.378+1.29%6Medium
21Alex Rins01:32.426+1.95220309.4Hard / Soft——
FP2 · 14.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin01:30.998—16314.8Soft / Soft——
2Aleix Espargaro01:31.028+0.03017312.1Soft / Soft1:31.552—8Soft
3Maverick Viñales01:31.094+0.09615314.8Soft / Soft1:32.512+1.05%6Soft
4Fabio Quartararo01:31.207+0.20916311.2Soft / Soft1:31.574+0.02%7Soft
5Luca Marini01:31.252+0.25415312.1Soft / Soft——
6Johann Zarco01:31.374+0.37613314.8Soft / Soft——
7Franco Morbidelli01:31.445+0.44713310.3Soft / Soft1:32.483+1.02%5Soft
8Jack Miller01:31.463+0.46517313.9Soft / Soft1:32.650+1.20%10Medium
9Augusto Fernandez01:31.537+0.53913311.2Medium / Soft1:33.140+1.74%5Soft
10Takaaki Nakagami01:31.590+0.59215307.6Soft / Soft1:32.857+1.43%5Soft
11Francesco Bagnaia01:31.630+0.63214314.8Hard / Soft——
12Fabio Di Giannantonio01:31.703+0.70516310.3Soft / Soft1:32.396+0.92%10Soft
13Marco Bezzecchi01:31.709+0.71113314.8Soft / Soft——
14Enea Bastianini01:31.727+0.72914312.1Hard / Soft1:35.410+4.21%6Soft
15Brad Binder01:31.761+0.76314314.8Hard / Soft1:32.671+1.22%5Soft
16Miguel Oliveira01:31.769+0.7719313.0Soft / Soft1:32.986+1.57%4Soft
17Pol Espargaro01:31.807+0.80915313.9Soft / Soft1:34.084+2.77%5Soft
18Raul Fernandez01:31.818+0.82012310.3Soft / Soft1:32.689+1.24%5Soft
19Marc Marquez01:31.992+0.99415312.1Hard / Soft1:32.487+1.02%6Soft
20Joan Mir01:32.134+1.13616312.1Soft / Soft1:32.899+1.47%9Soft
21Alex Rins01:32.410+1.41210305.9Soft / Soft——
Q1 · 14.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Luca Marini01:30.383—9314.8Soft / Soft
2Enea Bastianini01:30.527+0.1449313.0Hard / Soft
3Francesco Bagnaia01:30.626+0.2439316.7Soft / Soft
4Johann Zarco01:30.713+0.3306316.7Soft / Soft
5Franco Morbidelli01:30.729+0.3469311.2Soft / Soft
6Pol Espargaro01:31.006+0.6239314.8Soft / Soft
7Raul Fernandez01:31.031+0.6489311.2Soft / Soft
8Augusto Fernandez01:31.034+0.6519311.2Soft / Soft
9Joan Mir01:31.143+0.7609312.1Soft / Soft
10Takaaki Nakagami01:31.192+0.8099309.4Soft / Soft
11Alex Rins01:31.458+1.0759307.6Soft / Soft
Q2 · 14.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Luca Marini01:29.978—5313.9Soft / Soft
2Maverick Viñales01:30.009+0.0318314.8Soft / Soft
3Aleix Espargaro01:30.132+0.1549313.0Soft / Soft
4Fabio Quartararo01:30.516+0.5389313.9Soft / Soft
5Brad Binder01:30.698+0.7209315.7Soft / Soft
6Jorge Martin01:30.742+0.7647316.7Hard / Soft
7Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.766+0.7889310.3Soft / Soft
8Marc Marquez01:30.864+0.8867313.0Soft / Soft
9Marco Bezzecchi01:30.908+0.9306314.8Hard / Soft
10Jack Miller01:30.970+0.9928313.0Soft / Soft
11Enea Bastianini01:31.061+1.0837313.0Soft / Soft
12Miguel Oliveira01:31.193+1.2158315.7Soft / Soft
Sprint · 14.10
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin19:49.7111213Soft / Soft1:31.124—10Soft
2Luca Marini+1.131913Soft / Soft1:31.186+0.07%11Soft
3Marco Bezzecchi+2.081713Soft / Soft1:31.127+0.00%11Soft
4Maverick Viñales+2.720613Soft / Soft1:31.264+0.15%11Soft
5Fabio Quartararo+3.121513Soft / Soft1:31.523+0.44%11Soft
6Fabio Di Giannantonio+4.203413Soft / Soft1:31.345+0.24%10Soft
7Enea Bastianini+4.981313Hard / Soft1:31.429+0.34%11Soft
8Francesco Bagnaia+5.465213Hard / Soft1:31.441+0.35%10Soft
9Jack Miller+7.852113Soft / Soft1:31.376+0.28%11Soft
10Miguel Oliveira+8.942013Soft / Soft1:31.650+0.58%11Soft
11Takaaki Nakagami+12.034013Soft / Soft1:31.788+0.73%10Soft
12Johann Zarco+14.015013Hard / Soft1:31.841+0.79%11Soft
13Augusto Fernandez+14.823013Medium / Soft1:32.114+1.09%10Soft
14Raul Fernandez+15.699013Soft / Soft1:32.027+0.99%11Soft
15Franco Morbidelli+23.331013Hard / Soft1:32.470+1.48%11Soft
16Joan Mir+24.894013Soft / Soft1:32.094+1.06%11Soft
17Pol Espargaro+27.169013Hard / Soft1:32.591+1.61%11Soft
18Alex Rins+28.980013Hard / Soft1:32.742+1.78%11Soft
19Brad Binder+43.090013Hard / Soft1:32.201+1.18%10Soft
RetiredAleix Espargaro07Soft / Soft1:31.559+0.48%4Soft
Out on lap 1Marc Marquez00— / ———
Warm Up · 15.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Maverick Viñales01:31.043—7313.9Medium / Medium1:31.683—5Medium
2Jorge Martin01:31.127+0.0847313.9Soft / Medium1:31.826+0.16%5Medium
3Takaaki Nakagami01:31.279+0.2367306.8Soft / Soft——
4Franco Morbidelli01:31.339+0.2966310.3Soft / Medium——
5Johann Zarco01:31.362+0.3197313.0Hard / Medium1:32.536+0.93%5Medium
6Fabio Quartararo01:31.409+0.3667311.2Soft / Medium1:33.961+2.49%5Medium
7Francesco Bagnaia01:31.448+0.4057313.9Hard / Medium1:32.242+0.61%5Medium
8Enea Bastianini01:31.470+0.4277308.5Hard / Medium——
9Jack Miller01:31.501+0.4587313.0Soft / Medium1:32.961+1.39%5Medium
10Luca Marini01:31.524+0.4817313.0Soft / Medium1:34.833+3.44%5Medium
11Marc Marquez01:31.666+0.6237311.2Soft / Medium1:32.899+1.33%5Medium
12Brad Binder01:31.670+0.6277313.9Medium / Soft1:32.538+0.93%5Soft
13Pol Espargaro01:31.701+0.6587310.3Medium / Soft1:32.299+0.67%5Soft
14Augusto Fernandez01:31.746+0.7037308.5Medium / Soft1:32.573+0.97%5Soft
15Alex Rins01:31.820+0.7777308.5Soft / Medium1:32.980+1.42%5Medium
16Joan Mir01:31.879+0.8367311.2Soft / Medium1:32.471+0.86%5Medium
17Raul Fernandez01:31.900+0.8576309.4Soft / Soft——
18Aleix Espargaro01:31.916+0.8737311.2Soft / Medium1:32.666+1.07%4Medium
19Fabio Di Giannantonio01:32.057+1.0147310.3Hard / Medium1:32.752+1.17%5Medium
20Marco Bezzecchi01:32.409+1.3667314.8Soft / Medium1:32.968+1.40%5Medium
21Miguel Oliveira01:33.494+2.4514308.5Soft / Medium——
Race · 15.10
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Francesco Bagnaia41:20.2932527Hard / Medium1:31.541+0.20%25Medium
2Maverick Viñales+0.3062027Medium / Medium1:31.601+0.27%24Medium
3Fabio Quartararo+0.4331627Soft / Medium1:31.500+0.15%25Medium
4Fabio Di Giannantonio+6.9621327Soft / Medium1:31.680+0.35%24Medium
5Marco Bezzecchi+11.1111127Soft / Medium1:31.852+0.54%25Medium
6Brad Binder+11.2281027Medium / Medium1:31.827+0.51%25Medium
7Jack Miller+12.474927Soft / Medium1:31.971+0.67%25Medium
8Enea Bastianini+12.684827Hard / Medium1:31.629+0.30%25Medium
9Alex Rins+22.540727Soft / Medium1:32.245+0.97%25Medium
10Aleix Espargaro+30.468627Soft / Soft1:32.490+1.24%25Soft
11Takaaki Nakagami+30.823527Soft / Soft1:32.578+1.33%24Soft
12Miguel Oliveira+36.639427Soft / Soft1:32.540+1.29%24Soft
13Raul Fernandez+42.864327Soft / Soft1:32.788+1.56%24Soft
14Franco Morbidelli+0.000223Soft / Medium1:32.123+0.84%19Medium
RetiredAugusto Fernandez011Medium / Medium1:32.092+0.80%9Medium
RetiredJoan Mir011Soft / Medium1:31.957+0.66%9Medium
RetiredJohann Zarco014Hard / Medium1:33.718+2.58%12Medium
RetiredJorge Martin012Soft / Medium1:31.359—10Medium
RetiredLuca Marini04Soft / Medium——
RetiredMarc Marquez07Soft / Medium1:32.261+0.99%5Medium
RetiredPol Espargaro01Medium / Soft——

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Augusto Fernandez1:33.479—+0.437Medium5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Luca Marini126%55%69%79%20%2
Maverick Viñales222%56%74%89%9%4
Aleix Espargaro312%39%56%73%24%—
Fabio Quartararo411%36%61%88%9%5
Brad Binder57%29%56%90%4%19
Jorge Martin66%24%47%87%4%1
Fabio Di Giannantonio75%18%36%80%9%6
Marc Marquez83%12%29%78%4%—
Marco Bezzecchi92%8%19%65%14%3
Jack Miller102%6%14%59%9%9
Enea Bastianini111%4%10%48%13%7
Miguel Oliveira121%4%8%43%10%10
Francesco Bagnaia131%3%6%36%4%8
Johann Zarco141%2%4%24%14%12
Franco Morbidelli150%2%4%22%4%15
Pol Espargaro160%1%2%12%23%17
Raul Fernandez170%1%2%10%4%14
Augusto Fernandez180%1%1%6%14%13
Joan Mir190%0%1%5%28%16
Takaaki Nakagami200%1%1%4%14%11
Alex Rins210%0%1%3%14%18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Luca Marini139%71%83%91%7%—
Maverick Viñales223%58%75%86%13%2
Aleix Espargaro31%11%25%65%23%10
Fabio Quartararo43%21%43%81%13%3
Brad Binder50%2%9%54%14%6
Jorge Martin614%43%61%75%23%—
Fabio Di Giannantonio76%27%49%75%20%4
Marc Marquez81%11%28%71%17%—
Marco Bezzecchi910%35%59%81%15%5
Jack Miller101%7%20%60%25%7
Enea Bastianini111%8%21%64%21%8
Miguel Oliveira120%2%8%49%20%12
Francesco Bagnaia131%5%17%57%27%1
Johann Zarco140%0%2%31%19%—
Franco Morbidelli150%0%0%10%16%14
Pol Espargaro160%0%0%5%21%—
Raul Fernandez170%0%0%14%19%13
Augusto Fernandez180%0%0%10%11%—
Joan Mir190%0%0%5%26%—
Takaaki Nakagami200%0%0%15%15%11
Alex Rins210%0%0%1%22%9

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Marco Bezzecchi9% → 35%+262% → 10%
Jorge Martin20% → 43%+235% → 14%
Fabio Di Giannantonio16% → 27%+114% → 6%
Dropping
Aleix Espargaro40% → 11%−2912% → 1%
Brad Binder29% → 2%−277% → 0%
Fabio Quartararo37% → 21%−1612% → 3%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Jorge Martin1:31.124—+0.457Soft10
Marco Bezzecchi1:31.127+0.003+0.553Soft11
Luca Marini1:31.186+0.062+0.308Soft11
Maverick Viñales1:31.264+0.140+0.292Soft11
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:31.345+0.221+0.320Soft10
Jack Miller1:31.376+0.252+0.105Soft11
Enea Bastianini1:31.429+0.305+0.319Soft11
Francesco Bagnaia1:31.441+0.317+0.221Soft10
Fabio Quartararo1:31.523+0.399+0.275Soft11
Aleix Espargaro1:31.559+0.435+0.209Soft4
Miguel Oliveira1:31.650+0.526+0.193Soft11
Takaaki Nakagami1:31.788+0.664+0.359Soft10
Johann Zarco1:31.841+0.717+0.344Soft11
Raul Fernandez1:32.027+0.903+0.667Soft11
Joan Mir1:32.094+0.970+0.562Soft11
Augusto Fernandez1:32.114+0.990+0.437Soft10
Brad Binder1:32.201+1.077+0.327Soft10
Franco Morbidelli1:32.470+1.346+0.512Soft11
Pol Espargaro1:32.591+1.467+0.406Soft11
Alex Rins1:32.742+1.618+0.217Soft11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · MartinS2 · ViñalesS3 · MartinS4 · Quartararo

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,313 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

38/100
Position index
25%
Pole wins
50%
Front row on the podium
0.65
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 4 races (2022–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

83
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
2 leaders
17/20
Laps led by the winner
Miguel Oliveira
2.205 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Darryn Binder, from P22 to P10.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Luca Marini (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2022 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Fabio Quartararo1:39.690—+0.275Wet-Medium18
Miguel Oliveira1:39.696+0.006+0.193Wet-Medium18
Johann Zarco1:39.733+0.043+0.344Wet-Medium18
Joan Mir1:39.938+0.248+0.562Wet-Medium18
Alex Rins1:40.067+0.377+0.217Wet-Medium18
Jack Miller1:40.154+0.464+0.105Wet-Medium18
Franco Morbidelli1:40.773+1.083+0.512Wet-Medium18
Enea Bastianini1:40.954+1.264+0.319Wet-Medium18
Raul Fernandez1:40.980+1.290+0.667Wet-Medium18
Darryn Binder1:40.994+1.304+0.272Wet-Medium18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2025Fermin AldeguerDucati
  • 2024Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Miguel OliveiraKTM

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20255/1926%
20249/2143%
20237/2133%
20222/239%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Wet-Medium100%+1.44%−0.1441311.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.