Round 16 of 20 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2023

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

20.10 – 22.10.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	40:39.446	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.201	20
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.477	16
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.816	13
5	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.008	11
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+8.827	10
7	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.283	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+9.387	8
9	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+9.696	7
10	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+12.523	6
11	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+13.992	5
12	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+17.078	4
13	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+19.443	3
14	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+20.949	2
15	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+21.118	1
16	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+32.538	0
17	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+37.663	0
18	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+37.668	0
19	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+37.758	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 27%	Johann Zarco · 7% · from P5	0.78 / 0.78	2.9 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:30.009	—	+0.344	Medium	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.029	+0.020	+0.320	Medium	25
Augusto Fernandez	1:30.188	+0.179	+0.437	Medium	10
Brad Binder	1:30.197	+0.188	+0.327	Medium	25
Jorge Martin	1:30.211	+0.202	+0.457	Soft	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.217	+0.208	+0.221	Medium	25
Joan Mir	1:30.239	+0.230	+0.562	Medium	8
Alex Marquez	1:30.239	+0.230	+0.356	Medium	25
Jack Miller	1:30.337	+0.328	+0.105	Medium	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.399	+0.390	+0.553	Medium	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.475	+0.466	+0.209	Medium	25
Luca Marini	1:30.495	+0.486	+0.308	Medium	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:30.523	+0.514	+0.193	Medium	25
Marc Marquez	1:30.534	+0.525	+0.210	Soft	25
Enea Bastianini	1:30.565	+0.556	+0.319	Medium	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.570	+0.561	+0.275	Medium	25
Maverick Viñales	1:30.588	+0.579	+0.292	Medium	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:30.891	+0.882	+0.359	Medium	25
Raul Fernandez	1:30.972	+0.963	+0.667	Soft	25
Pol Espargaro	1:31.146	+1.137	+0.406	Soft	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.160	+1.151	+0.512	Medium	25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

1/27

Laps led by the winner

Johann Zarco

0.201 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Luca Marini, from P18 to P12.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Johann Zarco (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	15:28:10	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:29:28	Joan Mir	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:31:08	Augusto Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #37

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	8	3	+5
Luca Marini	18	15	+3
Pol Espargaro	11	9	+2
Fabio Quartararo	16	20	−4
Marco Bezzecchi	10	13	−3
Raul Fernandez	14	17	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Johann Zarco	5→1	+4.4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6→3	+3.0
Marco Bezzecchi	10→6	+2.6
Raul Fernandez	14→16	−4.8
Marc Marquez	7→15	−8.3
Pol Espargaro	11→18	−8.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	81%	+0.43%	+0.073	1	3	9.1
Soft	19%	+0.83%	+0.154	0	0	13.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

18.3 °C

Air

max 18.8 °C

62%

Humidity

0.4 mm

Rain

12 km/h

Wind

gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 20.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:29.039	—	19	349.5	— / —	—			—
2	Augusto Fernandez	01:29.759	+0.720	20	340.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:29.777	+0.738	21	347.3	Medium / Medium	1:31.982	+1.33%	6	Medium
4	Brad Binder	01:30.285	+1.246	22	347.3	— / —	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	01:30.311	+1.272	20	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.434	+1.395	20	348.4	Soft / Medium	1:30.774	—	12	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:30.434	+1.395	21	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:31.056	+0.31%	6	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:30.453	+1.414	21	345.0	— / —	—			—
9	Enea Bastianini	01:30.464	+1.425	19	348.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.178	+0.45%	6	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.480	+1.441	21	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:31.218	+0.49%	10	Medium
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.518	+1.479	19	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:32.376	+1.77%	4	Medium
12	Marc Marquez	01:30.614	+1.575	18	346.1	— / —	—			—
13	Pol Espargaro	01:30.675	+1.636	19	350.6	Medium / Medium	1:32.433	+1.83%	5	Medium
14	Alex Rins	01:30.678	+1.639	17	341.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Raul Fernandez	01:30.753	+1.714	19	341.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.819	+1.780	18	342.9	— / —	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.834	+1.795	22	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:31.536	+0.84%	10	Medium
18	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.858	+1.819	20	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:31.389	+0.68%	15	Medium
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.940	+1.901	16	345.0	— / —	—			—
20	Joan Mir	01:30.972	+1.933	19	347.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.163	+2.124	19	340.7	Medium / Medium	1:31.708	+1.03%	6	Medium
22	Luca Marini	01:31.332	+2.293	19	344.0	Medium / Medium	1:32.553	+1.96%	5	Medium

Practice · 20.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	01:27.943	—	25	347.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.399	+0.44%	13	Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:28.091	+0.148	27	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:30.342	+0.38%	4	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:28.212	+0.269	23	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.343	+0.38%	11	Medium
4	Jorge Martin	01:28.222	+0.279	26	347.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.206	+0.23%	9	Soft
5	Pol Espargaro	01:28.363	+0.420	24	344.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.368	+0.425	27	344.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.653	+0.72%	14	Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:28.452	+0.509	27	345.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.001	—	5	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:28.453	+0.510	23	350.6	Hard / Soft	1:32.039	+2.26%	9	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:28.456	+0.513	21	340.7	Hard / Soft	1:30.551	+0.61%	5	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	01:28.456	+0.513	25	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.572	+0.63%	6	Medium
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.642	+0.699	25	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
12	Alex Rins	01:28.644	+0.701	24	341.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:28.656	+0.713	24	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:30.578	+0.64%	8	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	01:28.659	+0.716	27	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:30.314	+0.35%	11	Soft
15	Alex Marquez	01:28.661	+0.718	26	347.3	Medium / Soft	1:30.356	+0.39%	14	Soft
16	Marc Marquez	01:28.790	+0.847	22	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Fabio Quartararo	01:28.937	+0.994	27	344.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.399	+0.44%	11	Medium
18	Joan Mir	01:29.007	+1.064	23	341.8	Hard / Soft	1:31.044	+1.16%	5	Soft
19	Luca Marini	01:29.164	+1.221	24	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.228	+1.36%	4	Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.711	+1.768	25	342.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.750	+1.807	27	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:30.904	+1.00%	10	Soft
22	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.908	+1.965	21	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.165	+1.29%	5	Soft

FP2 · 21.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:29.299	—	16	348.4	Medium / Medium	1:29.423	—	8	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:29.412	+0.113	15	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:32.071	+2.96%	7	Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.599	+0.300	14	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:30.616	+1.33%	10	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.685	+0.386	15	346.1	Hard / Medium	1:29.932	+0.57%	6	Medium
5	Johann Zarco	01:29.745	+0.446	14	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.545	+2.37%	5	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	01:29.810	+0.511	15	342.9	Medium / Medium	1:30.489	+1.19%	11	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.826	+0.527	15	340.7	Medium / Medium	1:30.526	+1.23%	11	Soft
8	Raul Fernandez	01:29.949	+0.650	13	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.613	+1.33%	8	Medium
9	Alex Marquez	01:29.986	+0.687	14	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:30.749	+1.48%	7	Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:30.034	+0.735	15	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.998	+2.88%	11	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:30.092	+0.793	15	341.8	Hard / Medium	1:30.750	+1.48%	11	Medium
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.159	+0.860	13	340.7	Medium / Medium	1:30.910	+1.66%	11	Medium
13	Joan Mir	01:30.250	+0.951	15	341.8	Medium / Medium	1:31.466	+2.29%	11	Soft
14	Luca Marini	01:30.268	+0.969	16	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:32.835	+3.82%	6	Medium
15	Enea Bastianini	01:30.303	+1.004	15	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.857	+1.60%	10	Soft
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.310	+1.011	16	349.5	Medium / Medium	1:30.770	+1.51%	6	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.341	+1.042	12	345.0	Hard / Medium	1:31.172	+1.96%	5	Medium
18	Jack Miller	01:30.365	+1.066	14	342.9	Hard / Medium	1:30.828	+1.57%	6	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.494	+1.195	16	342.9	Medium / Medium	1:30.891	+1.64%	8	Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.783	+1.484	14	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.726	+3.69%	10	Soft
21	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.051	+1.752	10	344.0	Medium / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 21.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.160	—	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:28.237	+0.077	7	347.3	Medium / Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:28.324	+0.164	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
4	Augusto Fernandez	01:28.435	+0.275	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
5	Raul Fernandez	01:28.607	+0.447	7	342.9	Medium / Soft
6	Joan Mir	01:28.841	+0.681	7	341.8	Medium / Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:28.925	+0.765	7	344.0	Medium / Soft
8	Luca Marini	01:29.047	+0.887	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.182	+1.022	8	341.8	Medium / Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.419	+1.259	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.832	+1.672	7	335.4	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 21.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:27.246	—	7	348.4	Medium / Soft
2	Brad Binder	01:27.662	+0.416	8	349.5	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:27.714	+0.468	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:27.844	+0.598	6	344.0	Medium / Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:27.903	+0.657	6	348.4	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:27.919	+0.673	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:28.012	+0.766	5	347.3	Medium / Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:28.074	+0.828	7	347.3	Medium / Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	01:28.093	+0.847	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.121	+0.875	7	351.8	Medium / Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:28.234	+0.988	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
12	Enea Bastianini	01:28.287	+1.041	8	350.6	Medium / Soft

Race · 21.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	40:39.446	25	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.009	—	25	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+0.201	20	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.217	+0.23%	25	Medium
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+0.477	16	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.029	+0.02%	25	Medium
4	Brad Binder	+0.816	13	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.197	+0.21%	25	Medium
5	Jorge Martin	+1.008	11	27	Hard / Soft	1:30.211	+0.22%	25	Soft
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+8.827	10	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.399	+0.43%	25	Medium
7	Jack Miller	+9.283	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.337	+0.36%	25	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	+9.387	8	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.475	+0.52%	25	Medium
9	Alex Marquez	+9.696	7	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.239	+0.26%	25	Medium
10	Enea Bastianini	+12.523	6	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.565	+0.62%	25	Medium
11	Maverick Viñales	+13.992	5	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.588	+0.64%	25	Medium
12	Luca Marini	+17.078	4	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.495	+0.54%	25	Medium
13	Miguel Oliveira	+19.443	3	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.523	+0.57%	25	Medium
14	Fabio Quartararo	+20.949	2	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.570	+0.62%	25	Medium
15	Marc Marquez	+21.118	1	27	Hard / Soft	1:30.534	+0.58%	25	Soft
16	Raul Fernandez	+32.538	0	27	Medium / Soft	1:30.972	+1.07%	25	Soft
17	Franco Morbidelli	+37.663	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.160	+1.28%	25	Medium
18	Pol Espargaro	+37.668	0	27	Hard / Soft	1:31.146	+1.26%	25	Soft
19	Takaaki Nakagami	+37.758	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.891	+0.98%	25	Medium
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	12	Hard / Medium	1:30.188	+0.20%	10	Medium
Retired	Joan Mir		0	10	Medium / Medium	1:30.239	+0.26%	8	Medium

Warm Up · 22.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:39.036	—	6	322.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
2	Jorge Martin	01:40.240	+1.204	6	323.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:40.302	+1.266	6	315.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:40.469	+1.433	6	315.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:40.722	+1.686	6	299.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
6	Augusto Fernandez	01:40.875	+1.839	6	304.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:41.051	+2.015	6	311.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:41.129	+2.093	6	326.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	01:41.179	+2.143	6	301.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:41.361	+2.325	5	314.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:41.540	+2.504	6	301.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
12	Luca Marini	01:41.634	+2.598	6	316.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
13	Johann Zarco	01:41.716	+2.680	5	303.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.857	+2.821	5	319.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:42.646	+3.610	6	290.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:42.792	+3.756	5	297.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:42.818	+3.782	6	304.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
18	Enea Bastianini	01:43.178	+4.142	6	311.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:43.577	+4.541	5	300.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
20	Francesco Bagnaia	01:43.748	+4.712	6	299.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.352	+7.316	5	282.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:29.864*	—	+0.275	Medium	4
Maverick Viñales	1:30.344	+0.480	+0.292	Medium	7
Raul Fernandez	1:30.535	+0.671	+0.667	Medium	6
Miguel Oliveira	1:30.687	+0.823	+0.193	Medium	9
Jack Miller	1:30.705	+0.841	+0.105	Medium	5
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.724	+0.860	+0.553	Medium	5
Augusto Fernandez	1:30.854	+0.990	+0.437	Medium	7
Johann Zarco	1:31.290*	+1.426	+0.344	Medium	4
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.367*	+1.503	+0.512	Medium	3
Luca Marini	1:31.837*	+1.973	+0.308	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Francesco Bagnaia	57%	1 ✓
2	Marc Marquez	40%	2 ✓
3	Raul Fernandez	30%	5
4	Augusto Fernandez	21%	4
5	Alex Marquez	20%	3
6	Fabio Quartararo	9%	7
7	Joan Mir	8%	6
8	Luca Marini	4%	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	3%	9
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	11
11	Franco Morbidelli	4%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jorge Martin	34%	64%	89%	1
2	Brad Binder	24%	51%	81%	2
3	Maverick Viñales	14%	48%	78%	9
4	Aleix Espargaro	5%	34%	68%	4
5	Pol Espargaro	4%	27%	53%	11
6	Marc Marquez	7%	23%	55%	7
7	Jack Miller	1%	11%	39%	8
8	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	13%	37%	3
9	Johann Zarco	3%	9%	28%	5
10	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	8%	25%	10
11	Enea Bastianini	3%	11%	29%	12
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	4%	19%	6

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Augusto Fernandez	14	17	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #37

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)
Jorge Martin	1	29%	65%	83%	95%	3%
Brad Binder	2	21%	57%	77%	94%	3%
Francesco Bagnaia	3	14%	49%	72%	93%	3%
Aleix Espargaro	4	8%	27%	46%	69%	27%
Johann Zarco	5	7%	25%	48%	82%	13%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	5%	20%	43%	83%	8%
Marc Marquez	7	4%	16%	35%	79%	10%
Jack Miller	8	3%	11%	27%	75%	8%
Maverick Viñales	9	2%	7%	17%	68%	8%
Marco Bezzecchi	10	2%	6%	14%	59%	13%
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	9%	44%	21%
Enea Bastianini	12	1%	4%	7%	43%	12%
Alex Marquez	13	1%	3%	5%	30%	21%
Raul Fernandez	14	1%	2%	5%	29%	4%
Joan Mir	15	0%	1%	3%	16%	26%
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	2%	3%	16%	8%
Augusto Fernandez	17	0%	1%	2%	9%	13%
Luca Marini	18	0%	1%	1%	6%	19%
Miguel Oliveira	19	0%	1%	1%	5%	9%
Franco Morbidelli	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	3%
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	1%	2%	13%

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	27%	54%	66%	75%	24%	5
Brad Binder	2	23%	54%	71%	83%	14%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	3	14%	40%	57%	71%	27%	2
Aleix Espargaro	4	11%	35%	54%	73%	23%	8
Johann Zarco	5	7%	30%	52%	76%	19%	1
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	5%	23%	43%	74%	20%	3
Marc Marquez	7	4%	20%	38%	73%	17%	15
Jack Miller	8	3%	14%	29%	63%	25%	7
Maverick Viñales	9	2%	10%	25%	72%	13%	11
Marco Bezzecchi	10	1%	7%	19%	64%	15%	6
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	5%	13%	53%	21%	18
Enea Bastianini	12	0%	3%	10%	47%	20%	10
Alex Marquez	13	1%	3%	7%	38%	25%	9
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	2%	6%	36%	19%	16
Joan Mir	15	0%	1%	4%	26%	27%	—
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	13%	14
Augusto Fernandez	17	0%	1%	2%	17%	15%	—
Luca Marini	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	9%	12
Miguel Oliveira	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	20%	13
Franco Morbidelli	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	16%	17
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	15%	19

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	346	—
2	Jorge Martin	328	−18
3	Marco Bezzecchi	283	−63
4	Brad Binder	211	−135
5	Aleix Espargaro	177	−169
6	Maverick Viñales	165	−181

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

158

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

3/27

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

0.186 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P24 to P12.

Longest battle: Franco Morbidelli vs Raul Fernandez (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:30.309	—	+0.319	Hard	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.372	+0.063	+0.275	Hard	8
Jack Miller	1:30.424	+0.115	+0.105	Medium	6
Luca Marini	1:30.445	+0.136	+0.308	Hard	25
Brad Binder	1:30.463	+0.154	+0.327	Hard	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.470	+0.161	+0.553	Hard	25
Alex Rins	1:30.486	+0.177	+0.217	Hard	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.498	+0.189	+0.221	Hard	25
Jorge Martin	1:30.523	+0.214	+0.457	Hard	25
Johann Zarco	1:30.547	+0.238	+0.344	Hard	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	75%	+0.28%	+0.020	1	2	10.3
Medium	21%	+0.63%	+0.024	0	0	14.3
Soft	4%	+0.27%	+0.009	0	1	2.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.