Round 18 of 20 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2022

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989

14.10 – 16.10.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	40:50.654	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.186	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.224	16
4	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+0.534	13
5	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.557	11
6	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+0.688	10
7	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+0.884	9
8	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+3.141	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+4.548	7
10	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+5.940	6
11	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.048	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.606	4
13	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+13.890	3
14	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+14.526	2
15	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+19.470	1
16	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+20.645	0
17	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+22.167	0
18	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+23.489	0
19	Tetsuta Nagashima	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+39.618	0
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+39.633	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 27%	Alex Rins · 2% · from P10	0.71 / 0.71	3.1 / 3.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:30.309	—	+0.319	Hard	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.372	+0.063	+0.275	Hard	8
Jack Miller	1:30.424	+0.115	+0.105	Medium	6
Luca Marini	1:30.445	+0.136	+0.308	Hard	25
Brad Binder	1:30.463	+0.154	+0.327	Hard	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.470	+0.161	+0.553	Hard	25
Alex Rins	1:30.486	+0.177	+0.217	Hard	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.498	+0.189	+0.221	Hard	25
Jorge Martin	1:30.523	+0.214	+0.457	Hard	25
Johann Zarco	1:30.547	+0.238	+0.344	Hard	25
Marc Marquez	1:30.554	+0.245	+0.210	Soft	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.571	+0.262	+0.209	Hard	25
Alex Marquez	1:30.610	+0.301	+0.356	Medium	6
Maverick Viñales	1:30.698	+0.389	+0.292	Hard	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:30.714	+0.405	+0.193	Hard	25
Pol Espargaro	1:30.882	+0.573	+0.406	Medium	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.901	+0.592	+0.512	Hard	19
Joan Mir	1:30.926	+0.617	+0.562	Hard	25
Darryn Binder	1:30.937	+0.628	+0.272	Hard	25
Cal Crutchlow	1:30.969	+0.660	+0.729	Medium	25
Raul Fernandez	1:31.006	+0.697	+0.667	Hard	25
Remy Gardner	1:31.096	+0.787	+1.660	Hard	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.534	+1.225	+0.320	Hard	25
Tetsuta Nagashima	1:31.909	+1.600	—	Medium	25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

158

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

3/27

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

0.186 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P24 to P12.

Longest battle: Franco Morbidelli vs Raul Fernandez (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:08	Miguel Oliveira	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:13:23	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:13:23	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:16:15	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:33:16	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:34:51	Franco Morbidelli	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #88 & long lap penalty for rider #88

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Marquez	11	7	+4
Darryn Binder	18	14	+4
Remy Gardner	19	16	+3
Johann Zarco	6	18	−12
Cal Crutchlow	17	20	−3
Enea Bastianini	15	17	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	10→1	+7.6
Enea Bastianini	15→5	+6.8
Miguel Oliveira	24→12	+5.6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	20→20	−5.0
Joan Mir	14→18	−6.8
Maverick Viñales	12→17	−7.1

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	75%	+0.28%	+0.020	1	2	10.3
Medium	21%	+0.63%	+0.024	0	0	14.3
Soft	4%	+0.27%	+0.009	0	1	2.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

13.0 °C

Air

max 13.1 °C

63%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

18 km/h

Wind

gusts 47 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 14.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:30.368	—	21	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:33.098	+1.65%	12	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:30.459	+0.091	19	348.4	missing / missing	1:34.788	+3.50%	7	Medium
3	Alex Marquez	01:30.493	+0.125	19	348.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.165	+1.72%	11	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:30.511	+0.143	20	347.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.239	+0.71%	12	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.687	+0.319	21	348.4	Medium / Medium	1:32.450	+0.94%	9	Medium
6	Enea Bastianini	01:30.790	+0.422	19	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.284	+1.85%	8	Medium
7	Marc Marquez	01:30.897	+0.529	22	349.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.291	+0.77%	15	Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.077	+0.709	20	348.4	Soft / Medium	1:32.945	+1.48%	12	Medium
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.087	+0.719	20	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:32.914	+1.45%	14	Medium
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.166	+0.798	22	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.929	+0.37%	16	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	01:31.194	+0.826	23	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.276	+0.75%	19	Medium
12	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.195	+0.827	25	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:31.587	—	19	Medium
13	Jorge Martin	01:31.419	+1.051	22	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:32.788	+1.31%	13	Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	01:31.436	+1.068	23	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.664	+1.18%	18	Medium
15	Joan Mir	01:31.531	+1.163	21	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:32.656	+1.17%	12	Medium
16	Darryn Binder	01:31.700	+1.332	20	336.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.685	+3.38%	8	Medium
17	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.868	+1.500	22	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:33.420	+2.00%	16	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.950	+1.582	23	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:32.822	+1.35%	18	Medium
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.178	+1.810	22	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:32.915	+1.45%	14	Medium
20	Remy Gardner	01:32.207	+1.839	20	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.834	+2.45%	10	Medium
21	Brad Binder	01:32.566	+2.198	20	341.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.595	+2.19%	12	Medium
22	Luca Marini	01:32.831	+2.463	19	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:36.710	+5.59%	5	Medium
23	Raul Fernandez	01:32.947	+2.579	19	337.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.405	+3.08%	5	Medium
24	Tetsuta Nagashima	01:34.437	+4.069	21	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:35.485	+4.26%	12	Medium

FP2 · 14.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:29.475	—	18	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:31.300	+0.79%	10	Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.513	+0.038	21	347.3	Medium / Soft	1:30.929	+0.38%	12	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	01:29.527	+0.052	22	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.427	+0.93%	13	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.614	+0.139	20	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:30.720	+0.15%	12	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:29.745	+0.270	19	347.3	Medium / Soft	1:30.589	—	8	Medium
6	Marc Marquez	01:29.775	+0.300	20	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.064	+0.52%	6	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.832	+0.357	20	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:31.317	+0.80%	11	Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.838	+0.363	18	348.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Enea Bastianini	01:29.849	+0.374	20	348.4	Medium / Soft	1:31.091	+0.55%	7	Medium
10	Jorge Martin	01:29.881	+0.406	21	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.434	+0.93%	8	Medium
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.923	+0.448	20	330.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.673	+1.20%	12	Medium
12	Joan Mir	01:29.944	+0.469	18	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:31.250	+0.73%	6	Medium
13	Jack Miller	01:30.021	+0.546	16	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Alex Marquez	01:30.088	+0.613	20	347.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.799	+1.34%	11	Soft
15	Brad Binder	01:30.099	+0.624	20	340.7	Hard / Soft	1:32.140	+1.71%	10	Medium
16	Alex Rins	01:30.138	+0.663	22	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:30.962	+0.41%	6	Hard
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.158	+0.683	17	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.276	+0.76%	6	Medium
18	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.206	+0.731	21	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:31.122	+0.59%	6	Medium
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.619	+1.144	20	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:31.954	+1.51%	10	Soft
20	Luca Marini	01:30.725	+1.250	17	340.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Raul Fernandez	01:30.841	+1.366	20	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:31.980	+1.54%	10	Medium
22	Remy Gardner	01:30.940	+1.465	20	334.4	Medium / Soft	1:32.328	+1.92%	12	Medium
23	Darryn Binder	01:31.078	+1.603	20	336.5	Medium / Soft	1:31.860	+1.40%	8	Medium
24	Tetsuta Nagashima	01:31.577	+2.102	19	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.553	+3.27%	5	Medium

FP3 · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:28.462	—	20	348.4	— / —	—			—
2	Luca Marini	01:28.592	+0.130	20	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:31.298	+1.38%	4	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:28.616	+0.154	20	351.8	Medium / Soft	1:30.992	+1.04%	5	Medium
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:28.639	+0.177	21	348.4	— / —	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.690	+0.228	21	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:28.721	+0.259	22	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:30.054	—	8	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:28.765	+0.303	22	347.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.768	+0.306	19	351.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Maverick Viñales	01:28.777	+0.315	20	348.4	Medium / Soft	1:30.970	+1.02%	6	Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:28.858	+0.396	23	348.4	Soft / Soft	1:31.187	+1.26%	7	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:28.903	+0.441	20	350.6	— / —	—			—
12	Joan Mir	01:28.920	+0.458	20	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:28.945	+0.483	20	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.129	+1.19%	5	Medium
14	Enea Bastianini	01:29.023	+0.561	20	354.1	— / —	—			—
15	Pol Espargaro	01:29.095	+0.633	18	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.133	+0.671	19	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.628	+0.64%	9	Soft
17	Alex Rins	01:29.144	+0.682	20	348.4	Soft / Medium	1:30.759	+0.78%	5	Medium
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.526	+1.064	20	346.1	— / —	—			—
19	Raul Fernandez	01:29.527	+1.065	17	340.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Brad Binder	01:29.589	+1.127	22	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:31.476	+1.58%	11	Soft
21	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.654	+1.192	22	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Remy Gardner	01:29.691	+1.229	21	340.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Tetsuta Nagashima	01:30.073	+1.611	19	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.915	+2.07%	7	Soft
24	Darryn Binder	01:30.336	+1.874	20	340.7	Soft / Medium	1:31.187	+1.26%	11	Soft

FP4 · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:28.976	—	17	350.6	Medium / Medium	1:29.636	+0.08%	12	Hard
2	Johann Zarco	01:29.198	+0.222	16	347.3	Medium / Hard	1:29.615	+0.06%	7	Hard
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.323	+0.347	17	350.6	Medium / Hard	1:29.823	+0.29%	12	Hard
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.333	+0.357	16	351.8	Medium / Hard	1:29.564	—	7	Hard
5	Joan Mir	01:29.406	+0.430	15	347.3	Medium / Medium	1:30.363	+0.89%	10	Hard
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.417	+0.441	16	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:29.586	+0.03%	10	Hard
7	Jorge Martin	01:29.440	+0.464	16	351.8	Hard / Hard	1:29.894	+0.37%	8	Hard
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.463	+0.487	17	350.6	Hard / Hard	1:30.096	+0.59%	8	Hard
9	Jack Miller	01:29.481	+0.505	19	349.5	Hard / Hard	1:30.484	+1.03%	15	Hard
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.504	+0.528	15	342.9	Hard / Hard	1:30.336	+0.86%	10	Hard
11	Pol Espargaro	01:29.513	+0.537	15	344.0	Hard / Soft	1:29.952	+0.43%	5	Hard
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:29.539	+0.563	15	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:30.384	+0.92%	9	Hard
13	Marc Marquez	01:29.599	+0.623	15	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:29.821	+0.29%	7	Hard
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.656	+0.680	17	339.6	Hard / Hard	1:30.434	+0.97%	14	Hard
15	Enea Bastianini	01:29.666	+0.690	16	355.2	Medium / Hard	1:30.896	+1.49%	8	Hard
16	Luca Marini	01:29.703	+0.727	18	346.1	Hard / Hard	1:29.955	+0.44%	9	Hard
17	Alex Rins	01:29.863	+0.887	16	348.4	Hard / Hard	1:30.496	+1.04%	10	Hard
18	Brad Binder	01:29.946	+0.970	16	347.3	Hard / Hard	1:30.208	+0.72%	6	Hard
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.071	+1.095	16	346.1	Medium / Hard	1:30.195	+0.71%	7	Hard
20	Alex Marquez	01:30.205	+1.229	13	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:31.507	+2.17%	5	Medium
21	Remy Gardner	01:30.217	+1.241	14	344.0	Hard / Hard	1:30.577	+1.13%	6	Hard
22	Tetsuta Nagashima	01:30.222	+1.246	15	344.0	Medium / Hard	1:30.888	+1.48%	6	Hard
23	Raul Fernandez	01:30.260	+1.284	12	338.6	Hard / Hard	1:30.570	+1.12%	4	Hard
24	Darryn Binder	01:30.270	+1.294	13	345.0	Medium / Hard	1:30.476	+1.02%	5	Hard

Q1 · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:28.132	—	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:28.347	+0.215	6	348.4	Medium / Soft
3	Pol Espargaro	01:28.392	+0.260	6	344.0	Hard / Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:28.492	+0.360	6	347.3	Medium / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:28.647	+0.515	7	351.8	Medium / Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:28.652	+0.520	7	344.0	Hard / Soft
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:28.677	+0.545	6	345.0	Medium / Soft
8	Darryn Binder	01:28.760	+0.628	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
9	Remy Gardner	01:28.820	+0.688	7	344.0	Medium / Soft
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:28.830	+0.698	7	348.4	Medium / Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:28.859	+0.727	7	340.7	Hard / Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:28.966	+0.834	8	342.9	Hard / Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.146	+1.014	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
14	Tetsuta Nagashima	01:29.624	+1.492	9	345.0	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 15.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:27.767	—	8	355.2	Medium / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:27.780	+0.013	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:27.953	+0.186	8	351.8	Medium / Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:27.957	+0.190	8	347.3	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:27.973	+0.206	8	347.3	Medium / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:28.007	+0.240	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:28.029	+0.262	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:28.116	+0.349	8	352.9	Soft / Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.185	+0.418	8	351.8	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:28.541	+0.774	7	348.4	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:28.733	+0.966	8	348.4	Hard / Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	01:28.765	+0.998	7	348.4	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 16.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:36.804	—	8	330.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
2	Maverick Viñales	01:38.231	+1.427	7	306.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.204	+2.400	7	314.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.417	+2.613	11	318.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.378	—	8	Wet-Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:39.705	+2.901	7	323.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:40.093	+3.289	8	318.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
7	Darryn Binder	01:40.313	+3.509	8	306.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:40.890	+4.086	7	318.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
9	Jorge Martin	01:41.060	+4.256	8	301.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Joan Mir	01:41.112	+4.308	7	308.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.506	+4.702	8	304.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
12	Enea Bastianini	01:41.815	+5.011	8	312.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:44.808	+3.38%	6	Wet-Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.937	+5.133	7	308.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
14	Luca Marini	01:42.042	+5.238	7	303.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:42.244	+5.440	7	315.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:42.439	+5.635	6	306.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	01:42.590	+5.786	6	292.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
18	Remy Gardner	01:42.862	+6.058	7	290.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
19	Brad Binder	01:43.118	+6.314	7	302.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Marco Bezzecchi	01:43.596	+6.792	6	306.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
21	Tetsuta Nagashima	01:45.290	+8.486	6	301.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
22	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.584	+8.780	6	300.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
23	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.481	+9.677	7	293.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Race · 16.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	40:50.654	25	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.486	+0.20%	25	Hard
2	Marc Marquez	+0.186	20	27	Hard / Soft	1:30.554	+0.27%	25	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+0.224	16	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.498	+0.21%	25	Hard
4	Marco Bezzecchi	+0.534	13	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.470	+0.18%	25	Hard
5	Enea Bastianini	+0.557	11	27	Hard / Hard	1:30.309	—	25	Hard
6	Luca Marini	+0.688	10	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.445	+0.15%	25	Hard
7	Jorge Martin	+0.884	9	27	Hard / Hard	1:30.523	+0.24%	25	Hard
8	Johann Zarco	+3.141	8	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.547	+0.26%	25	Hard
9	Aleix Espargaro	+4.548	7	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.571	+0.29%	25	Hard
10	Brad Binder	+5.940	6	27	Hard / Hard	1:30.463	+0.17%	25	Hard
11	Pol Espargaro	+11.048	5	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.882	+0.63%	25	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	+13.606	4	27	Hard / Hard	1:30.714	+0.45%	25	Hard
13	Cal Crutchlow	+13.890	3	27	Hard / Medium	1:30.969	+0.73%	25	Medium
14	Darryn Binder	+14.526	2	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.937	+0.70%	25	Hard
15	Remy Gardner	+19.470	1	27	Medium / Hard	1:31.096	+0.87%	25	Hard
16	Raul Fernandez	+20.645	0	27	Hard / Hard	1:31.006	+0.77%	25	Hard
17	Maverick Viñales	+22.167	0	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.698	+0.43%	25	Hard
18	Joan Mir	+23.489	0	27	Medium / Hard	1:30.926	+0.68%	25	Hard
19	Tetsuta Nagashima	+39.618	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.909	+1.77%	25	Medium
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+39.633	0	27	Medium / Hard	1:31.534	+1.36%	25	Hard
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	8	Hard / Medium	1:30.610	+0.33%	6	Medium
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	10	Medium / Hard	1:30.372	+0.07%	8	Hard
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	21	Hard / Hard	1:30.901	+0.66%	19	Hard
Retired	Jack Miller		0	8	Medium / Medium	1:30.424	+0.13%	6	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:29.358*	—	+0.292	Medium	4
Joan Mir	1:29.569*	+0.211	+0.562	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.680	+1.322	+0.275	Medium	5
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.689*	+1.331	+0.221	Medium	3
Pol Espargaro	1:30.850*	+1.492	+0.406	Medium	4
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.873	+1.515	+0.553	Medium	7
Alex Rins	1:30.916	+1.558	+0.217	Medium	6
Enea Bastianini	1:30.934	+1.576	+0.319	Medium	5
Jack Miller	1:31.040*	+1.682	+0.105	Medium	3
Cal Crutchlow	1:31.076	+1.718	+0.729	Medium	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.132	+1.774	+0.209	Medium	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.160*	+1.802	+0.320	Medium	3
Jorge Martin	1:31.207*	+1.849	+0.457	Medium	3
Johann Zarco	1:31.255	+1.897	+0.344	Medium	7
Luca Marini	1:31.339	+1.981	+0.308	Medium	5
Raul Fernandez	1:31.426*	+2.068	+0.667	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:31.432*	+2.074	+0.356	Medium	4
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.626*	+2.268	+0.512	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.628*	+2.270	+0.193	Medium	4
Brad Binder	1:31.869	+2.511	+0.327	Medium	5
Remy Gardner	1:32.188*	+2.830	+1.660	Medium	4
Darryn Binder	1:32.796*	+3.438	+0.272	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Joan Mir	57%	4
2	Cal Crutchlow	42%	7
3	Pol Espargaro	31%	3
4	Miguel Oliveira	21%	11
5	Johann Zarco	18%	1 ✓
6	Franco Morbidelli	9%	13
7	Raul Fernandez	8%	12
8	Brad Binder	4%	6
9	Enea Bastianini	2%	5
10	Remy Gardner	3%	9
11	Alex Rins	4%	2 ✓
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	10
13	Tetsuta Nagashima	1%	14
14	Darryn Binder	0%	8

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Luca Marini	35%	64%	89%	7
2	Jorge Martin	25%	51%	82%	1
3	Marco Bezzecchi	14%	49%	78%	9
4	Jack Miller	4%	33%	69%	8
5	Francesco Bagnaia	4%	27%	53%	3
6	Maverick Viñales	7%	23%	55%	12
7	Johann Zarco	1%	11%	39%	6
8	Fabio Quartararo	2%	12%	37%	5
9	Aleix Espargaro	3%	9%	27%	4
10	Marc Marquez	2%	7%	25%	2
11	Alex Rins	3%	11%	29%	10
12	Alex Marquez	1%	4%	18%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Miguel Oliveira	21	24	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #88 & long lap penalty for rider #88

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	27%	52%	64%	74%	25%	7
Marc Marquez	2	22%	52%	70%	83%	15%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	3	13%	36%	52%	67%	29%	3
Aleix Espargaro	4	10%	34%	53%	73%	24%	9
Fabio Quartararo	5	7%	31%	53%	81%	14%	—
Johann Zarco	6	6%	24%	44%	75%	18%	8
Luca Marini	7	6%	23%	46%	86%	3%	6
Jack Miller	8	3%	12%	28%	64%	24%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	9	2%	9%	23%	64%	18%	4
Alex Rins	10	2%	7%	19%	57%	22%	1
Alex Marquez	11	1%	5%	12%	51%	22%	—
Maverick Viñales	12	1%	4%	11%	52%	11%	17
Pol Espargaro	13	1%	3%	8%	41%	20%	11
Joan Mir	14	0%	2%	6%	33%	22%	18
Enea Bastianini	15	0%	1%	4%	27%	20%	5
Brad Binder	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	13%	10
Cal Crutchlow	17	0%	1%	2%	13%	27%	13
Darryn Binder	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	27%	14
Remy Gardner	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	14%	15
Fabio Di Giannantonio	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	18%	20
Raul Fernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	15%	16
Franco Morbidelli	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	18%	—
Tetsuta Nagashima	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	27%	19
Miguel Oliveira	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	17%	12

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.53%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.40%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%	Raul Fernandez +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez +0.43%	Alex Marquez +0.55%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi	Brad Binder +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.14%
S2	Jorge Martin	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%
S3	Jorge Martin	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.26%
S2	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.75%	Marc Marquez +0.83%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.51%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Brad Binder +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.11%	Enea Bastianini +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Remy Gardner +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Cal Crutchlow +0.67%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%	Andrea Iannone +0.59%
S2	Jack Miller +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.87%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.59%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100

Position index

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	219	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	217	−2
3	Aleix Espargaro	199	−20
4	Enea Bastianini	180	−39
5	Jack Miller	179	−40
6	Brad Binder	154	−65

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

2/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

11.413 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Francesco Bagnaia, from P15 to P4.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Pol Espargaro (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:30.019	—	+0.292	Soft	24
Marc Marquez	1:30.164	+0.145	+0.210	Soft	25
Joan Mir	1:30.511	+0.492	+0.562	Hard	25
Cal Crutchlow	1:30.515	+0.496	+0.729	Hard	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.579	+0.560	+0.221	Hard	25
Jack Miller	1:30.686	+0.667	+0.105	Hard	25
Andrea Dovizioso	1:30.737	+0.718	+0.226	Hard	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.818	+0.799	+0.209	Soft	25
Alex Rins	1:30.831	+0.812	+0.217	Hard	25
Valentino Rossi	1:30.847	+0.828	+0.508	Soft	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Raul FernandezAprilia
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Johann ZarcoDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2017Marc MarquezHonda
2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	2/21	10%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/21	24%
2018	5/23	22%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	53%	+0.99%	+0.057	1	1	9.9
Hard	47%	+0.80%	+0.062	0	2	7.1

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.