Round 19 of 20 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2022

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

21.10 – 23.10.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:14.332	25
2	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.270	20
3	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+2.773	16
4	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+5.446	13
5	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+11.923	11
6	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+13.472	10
7	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.304	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.805	8
9	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+18.358	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+21.591	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+23.235	5
12	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+24.641	4
13	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+24.918	3
14	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+25.586	2
15	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+27.039	1
16	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+30.427	0
17	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+33.322	0
18	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+33.691	0
19	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+41.838	0
DNF	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0
DNF	Tetsuta Nagashima	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 25%	Francesco Bagnaia · 2% · from P9	0.60 / 0.60	3.4 / 3.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:59.696	—	+0.457	Soft	4
Marco Bezzecchi	2:00.470	+0.774	+0.553	Soft	18
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.482	+0.786	+0.275	Soft	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:00.528	+0.832	+0.221	Soft	18
Enea Bastianini	2:00.553	+0.857	+0.319	Soft	18
Jack Miller	2:00.937	+1.241	+0.105	Soft	18
Darryn Binder	2:01.039	+1.343	+0.272	Soft	7
Joan Mir	2:01.061	+1.365	+0.562	Soft	17
Alex Rins	2:01.065	+1.369	+0.217	Soft	18
Johann Zarco	2:01.085	+1.389	+0.344	Soft	18
Maverick Viñales	2:01.105	+1.409	+0.292	Soft	17
Marc Marquez	2:01.118	+1.422	+0.210	Soft	18
Aleix Espargaro	2:01.269	+1.573	+0.209	Soft	18
Brad Binder	2:01.318	+1.622	+0.327	Soft	18
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:01.326	+1.630	+0.320	Soft	8
Franco Morbidelli	2:01.358	+1.662	+0.512	Soft	18
Miguel Oliveira	2:01.580	+1.884	+0.193	Soft	18
Cal Crutchlow	2:01.616	+1.920	+0.729	Soft	18
Raul Fernandez	2:01.654	+1.958	+0.667	Soft	18
Pol Espargaro	2:01.679	+1.983	+0.406	Soft	18
Alex Marquez	2:01.876	+2.180	+0.356	Soft	18
Remy Gardner	2:01.890	+2.194	+1.660	Soft	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

11/20

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.270 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P12 to P3.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Francesco Bagnaia (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	15:02:54	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	Double long lap penalty
Race	15:02:56	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	15:03:15	Luca Marini	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	15:10:16	Tetsuta Nagashima	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:13:44	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:22:04	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:22:04	Darryn Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:50:44	Franco Morbidelli	Time penalty	3 seconds penalty due to irresponsible riding
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #44, long lap penalty for rider #73 & double long lap penalty for rider #21

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Darryn Binder	24	12	+12
Fabio Quartararo	12	5	+7
Francesco Bagnaia	9	2	+7
Luca Marini	6	24	−18
Maverick Viñales	8	19	−11
Marco Bezzecchi	4	11	−7

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	9→1	+7.0
Fabio Quartararo	12→3	+6.9
Jack Miller	14→6	+5.2
Franco Morbidelli	7→11	−4.3
Maverick Viñales	8→16	−8.7
Joan Mir	11→19	−9.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+1.19%	+0.069	1	3	10.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

29.6 °C

Air

max 30.4 °C

69%

Humidity

0.6 mm

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 22 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 21.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Brad Binder	01:59.479	—	18	330.2	Medium / Medium	2:02.244	+0.89%	10	Medium
2	Alex Rins	01:59.576	+0.097	17	333.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:59.623	+0.144	15	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Enea Bastianini	01:59.875	+0.396	15	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Joan Mir	01:59.951	+0.472	16	331.2	Medium / Medium	2:01.476	+0.25%	6	Hard
6	Jorge Martin	01:59.966	+0.487	17	329.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	02:00.543	+1.064	18	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.250	+0.07%	11	Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:00.552	+1.073	15	329.2	Medium / Soft	2:02.932	+1.45%	5	Medium
9	Luca Marini	02:00.733	+1.254	14	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Marco Bezzecchi	02:00.767	+1.288	13	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.170	—	5	Medium
11	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.770	+1.291	15	334.3	Soft / Medium	2:01.310	+0.12%	5	Medium
12	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.771	+1.292	17	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.490	+0.26%	11	Medium
13	Alex Marquez	02:01.015	+1.536	16	328.2	Medium / Soft	2:02.233	+0.88%	5	Medium
14	Jack Miller	02:01.034	+1.555	15	333.3	Soft / Medium	2:02.649	+1.22%	5	Medium
15	Johann Zarco	02:01.048	+1.569	16	330.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	02:01.200	+1.721	15	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	02:01.247	+1.768	17	327.2	Medium / Medium	2:02.383	+1.00%	11	Medium
18	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.251	+1.772	16	328.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Maverick Viñales	02:01.328	+1.849	16	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.601	+0.36%	4	Medium
20	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.654	+2.175	5	324.3	Soft / Hard	—			—
21	Remy Gardner	02:01.704	+2.225	17	323.3	Medium / Medium	2:04.348	+2.62%	10	Medium
22	Darryn Binder	02:01.831	+2.352	10	324.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Raul Fernandez	02:01.831	+2.352	16	325.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
24	Tetsuta Nagashima	02:02.866	+3.387	17	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:04.808	+3.00%	5	Medium

FP2 · 21.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Cal Crutchlow	02:05.710	—	15	323.3	Medium / Medium	2:17.563	+4.11%	5	Wet-Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	02:06.610	+0.900	17	323.3	Medium / Soft	2:13.623	+1.13%	8	Wet-Medium
3	Alex Marquez	02:06.896	+1.186	11	319.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Jack Miller	02:07.553	+1.843	14	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	02:08.589	+2.879	18	307.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.799	+1.26%	12	Wet-Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	02:09.353	+3.643	15	310.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:12.752	+0.47%	4	Wet-Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	02:09.390	+3.680	17	314.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:14.322	+1.66%	8	Wet-Medium
8	Joan Mir	02:09.749	+4.039	15	314.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	02:09.753	+4.043	18	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.048	+0.70%	10	Wet-Medium
10	Luca Marini	02:09.825	+4.115	15	308.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
11	Miguel Oliveira	02:09.898	+4.188	15	316.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:15.183	+2.31%	10	Wet-Medium
12	Alex Rins	02:09.960	+4.250	15	310.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:15.330	+2.42%	5	Wet-Medium
13	Marco Bezzecchi	02:09.992	+4.282	18	317.6	Soft / Medium	2:14.490	+1.79%	13	Wet-Medium
14	Raul Fernandez	02:10.392	+4.682	16	300.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:15.406	+2.48%	11	Wet-Medium
15	Marc Marquez	02:10.411	+4.701	14	318.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:16.628	+3.40%	6	Wet-Medium
16	Brad Binder	02:10.485	+4.775	15	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:15.448	+2.51%	9	Wet-Medium
17	Jorge Martin	02:10.572	+4.862	16	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.728	+1.21%	8	Wet-Medium
18	Remy Gardner	02:10.592	+4.882	16	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:20.080	+6.02%	12	Wet-Medium
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:10.604	+4.894	13	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:12.130	—	4	Wet-Medium
20	Tetsuta Nagashima	02:10.639	+4.929	14	311.2	Soft / Hard	—			—
21	Aleix Espargaro	02:11.433	+5.723	11	309.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
22	Enea Bastianini	02:11.568	+5.858	13	303.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:17.676	+4.20%	6	Wet-Medium
—	Darryn Binder	02:12.878	+7.168	15	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:14.188	+1.56%	6	Wet-Medium
—	Pol Espargaro	02:12.414	+6.704	10	296.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—

FP3 · 22.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:58.583	—	15	334.3	— / —	—			—
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.772	+0.189	18	329.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:58.796	+0.213	15	331.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Luca Marini	01:58.806	+0.223	17	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Joan Mir	01:58.920	+0.337	17	330.2	— / —	—			—
6	Enea Bastianini	01:59.003	+0.420	15	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.067	+0.484	18	332.3	Medium / Soft	1:59.872	—	6	Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:59.126	+0.543	18	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.155	+0.572	16	331.2	— / —	—			—
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.167	+0.584	15	328.2	Medium / Soft	2:01.316	+1.21%	5	Medium
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.167	+0.584	14	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Johann Zarco	01:59.236	+0.653	18	331.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Brad Binder	01:59.322	+0.739	15	331.2	— / —	—			—
14	Jack Miller	01:59.343	+0.760	15	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:00.317	+0.37%	5	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.405	+0.822	15	327.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.419	+0.46%	5	Soft
16	Marc Marquez	01:59.618	+1.035	17	331.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Marquez	01:59.934	+1.351	15	330.2	— / —	—			—
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:59.952	+1.369	13	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.999	+1.416	15	328.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Remy Gardner	02:00.126	+1.543	14	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Pol Espargaro	02:00.234	+1.651	9	329.2	— / —	—			—
22	Darryn Binder	02:00.405	+1.822	15	329.2	— / —	—			—
23	Raul Fernandez	02:00.475	+1.892	14	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Tetsuta Nagashima	02:01.208	+2.625	16	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 22.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.925	—	13	328.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.321	—	5	Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	01:59.996	+0.071	10	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	02:00.021	+0.096	11	332.3	Medium / Soft	2:00.435	+0.10%	6	Medium
4	Alex Rins	02:00.289	+0.364	13	329.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.898	+0.48%	5	Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.297	+0.372	10	335.4	Medium / Soft	2:00.635	+0.26%	5	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.319	+0.394	14	327.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.636	+0.26%	9	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	02:00.343	+0.418	10	330.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
8	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.355	+0.430	13	327.2	Hard / Soft	2:01.228	+0.75%	10	Soft
9	Jack Miller	02:00.480	+0.555	13	335.4	Medium / Soft	2:00.842	+0.43%	8	Soft
10	Joan Mir	02:00.490	+0.565	11	330.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.911	+0.49%	5	Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	02:00.508	+0.583	13	331.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Johann Zarco	02:00.510	+0.585	9	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.616	+0.691	12	328.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Brad Binder	02:00.620	+0.695	10	330.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Marc Marquez	02:00.660	+0.735	8	326.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	02:00.709	+0.784	6	318.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Luca Marini	02:00.781	+0.856	12	333.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.210	+0.74%	7	Soft
18	Darryn Binder	02:00.784	+0.859	10	326.2	Medium / Soft	2:01.666	+1.12%	4	Soft
19	Cal Crutchlow	02:00.913	+0.988	11	327.2	Medium / Soft	2:01.500	+0.98%	5	Soft
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:00.994	+1.069	9	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Raul Fernandez	02:01.028	+1.103	10	323.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Remy Gardner	02:01.029	+1.104	13	323.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.556	+1.03%	9	Soft
23	Alex Marquez	02:01.392	+1.467	13	325.3	Hard / Soft	2:02.646	+1.93%	6	Soft
24	Tetsuta Nagashima	02:01.540	+1.615	12	325.3	Medium / Soft	2:02.296	+1.64%	5	Soft

Q1 · 22.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.645	—	6	335.4	Medium / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:58.878	+0.233	6	330.2	Medium / Soft
3	Brad Binder	01:59.053	+0.408	7	330.2	Medium / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:59.064	+0.419	5	332.3	Soft / Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:59.256	+0.611	7	327.2	Medium / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:59.278	+0.633	7	330.2	Medium / Soft
7	Pol Espargaro	01:59.363	+0.718	6	319.5	Medium / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:59.690	+1.045	6	331.2	Medium / Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.699	+1.054	7	325.3	Medium / Soft
10	Remy Gardner	01:59.803	+1.158	6	324.3	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	02:00.008	+1.363	4	326.2	Medium / Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	02:00.077	+1.432	7	323.3	Medium / Soft
13	Tetsuta Nagashima	02:00.803	+2.158	6	327.2	Medium / Soft
14	Darryn Binder	02:10.717	+12.072	6	325.3	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 22.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:57.790	—	6	334.3	Medium / Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	01:58.246	+0.456	7	336.4	Medium / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:58.454	+0.664	6	330.2	Medium / Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.490	+0.700	7	326.2	Medium / Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:58.575	+0.785	7	332.3	Medium / Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:58.579	+0.789	7	332.3	Medium / Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:58.654	+0.864	6	327.2	Medium / Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	01:58.766	+0.976	7	329.2	Medium / Soft
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.862	+1.072	5	332.3	Medium / Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.935	+1.145	5	330.2	Medium / Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:59.145	+1.355	6	331.2	Medium / Soft
12	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.215	+1.425	6	330.2	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 23.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	02:02.442	—	9	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	02:03.134	+0.692	7	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Alex Marquez	02:03.617	+1.175	7	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Miguel Oliveira	02:03.998	+1.556	9	312.1	Medium / Soft	2:09.746	+0.17%	5	Wet-Medium
5	Alex Rins	02:04.089	+1.647	9	320.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Cal Crutchlow	02:04.552	+2.110	9	320.4	Soft / Soft	2:09.927	+0.31%	5	Wet-Medium
7	Joan Mir	02:04.646	+2.204	8	325.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Francesco Bagnaia	02:04.713	+2.271	9	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:05.186	+2.744	9	316.7	Soft / Soft	2:11.315	+1.38%	5	Wet-Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	02:05.435	+2.993	7	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Luca Marini	02:06.415	+3.973	9	312.1	Soft / Soft	2:10.882	+1.04%	5	Wet-Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	02:06.435	+3.993	9	318.5	Soft / Soft	2:09.825	+0.23%	5	Wet-Medium
13	Darryn Binder	02:06.991	+4.549	9	304.2	Medium / Soft	2:10.980	+1.12%	5	Wet-Medium
14	Brad Binder	02:07.768	+5.326	9	318.5	Medium / Soft	2:11.285	+1.35%	5	Wet-Medium
15	Aleix Espargaro	02:08.483	+6.041	8	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
16	Maverick Viñales	02:08.597	+6.155	8	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
17	Fabio Quartararo	02:08.630	+6.188	8	318.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	02:09.422	+6.980	9	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:09.532	—	4	Wet-Medium
19	Marco Bezzecchi	02:09.722	+7.280	8	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
20	Jack Miller	02:10.188	+7.746	8	319.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
21	Remy Gardner	02:10.532	+8.090	9	298.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.506	+1.52%	5	Wet-Medium
22	Tetsuta Nagashima	02:10.828	+8.386	9	317.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.154	+1.25%	6	Wet-Medium
23	Jorge Martin	02:11.019	+8.577	6	309.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
24	Franco Morbidelli	02:11.214	+8.772	9	312.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:12.786	+2.51%	7	Wet-Medium

Race · 23.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:14.332	25	20	Medium / Soft	2:00.528	+0.70%	18	Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	+0.270	20	20	Medium / Soft	2:00.553	+0.72%	18	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	+2.773	16	20	Medium / Soft	2:00.482	+0.66%	18	Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	+5.446	13	20	Medium / Soft	2:00.470	+0.65%	18	Soft
5	Alex Rins	+11.923	11	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.065	+1.14%	18	Soft
6	Jack Miller	+13.472	10	20	Medium / Soft	2:00.937	+1.04%	18	Soft
7	Marc Marquez	+14.304	9	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.118	+1.19%	18	Soft
8	Brad Binder	+16.805	8	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.318	+1.36%	18	Soft
9	Johann Zarco	+18.358	7	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.085	+1.16%	18	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	+21.591	6	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.269	+1.31%	18	Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	+23.235	5	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.358	+1.39%	18	Soft
12	Cal Crutchlow	+24.641	4	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.616	+1.60%	18	Soft
13	Miguel Oliveira	+24.918	3	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.580	+1.57%	18	Soft
14	Pol Espargaro	+25.586	2	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.679	+1.66%	18	Soft
15	Raul Fernandez	+27.039	1	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.654	+1.64%	18	Soft
16	Maverick Viñales	+30.427	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.105	+1.18%	17	Soft
17	Alex Marquez	+33.322	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.876	+1.82%	18	Soft
18	Remy Gardner	+33.691	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.890	+1.83%	18	Soft
19	Joan Mir	+41.838	0	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.061	+1.14%	17	Soft
Retired	Darryn Binder		0	10	Medium / Soft	2:01.039	+1.12%	7	Soft
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	10	Medium / Soft	2:01.326	+1.36%	8	Soft
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:59.696	—	4	Soft
Retired	Luca Marini		0	1	— / —	—			—
Retired	Tetsuta Nagashima		0	4	Medium / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	2:00.731*	—	+0.292	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Francesco Bagnaia	57%	1 ✓
2	Jack Miller	42%	4
3	Miguel Oliveira	31%	9
4	Brad Binder	21%	3
5	Marc Marquez	19%	2 ✓
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	9%	6
7	Cal Crutchlow	8%	5
8	Raul Fernandez	4%	12
9	Johann Zarco	2%	8
10	Remy Gardner	3%	10
11	Pol Espargaro	4%	7
12	Darryn Binder	1%	14
13	Alex Marquez	1%	11
14	Tetsuta Nagashima	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marco Bezzecchi	35%	64%	89%	4
2	Maverick Viñales	25%	52%	82%	8
3	Enea Bastianini	14%	48%	78%	2
4	Fabio Quartararo	4%	32%	68%	12
5	Franco Morbidelli	4%	27%	53%	7
6	Francesco Bagnaia	7%	23%	55%	9
7	Alex Rins	1%	11%	39%	5
8	Marc Marquez	2%	12%	38%	3
9	Joan Mir	3%	9%	27%	11
10	Jorge Martin	2%	8%	26%	1
11	Luca Marini	3%	11%	29%	6
12	Aleix Espargaro	1%	4%	18%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Pol Espargaro	17	20	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #44, long lap penalty for rider #73 & double long lap penalty for rider #21

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	25%	50%	64%	74%	24%	—
Enea Bastianini	2	21%	50%	66%	79%	19%	2
Marc Marquez	3	15%	45%	65%	82%	15%	7
Marco Bezzecchi	4	12%	38%	58%	78%	17%	4
Alex Rins	5	7%	28%	47%	72%	22%	5
Luca Marini	6	7%	27%	52%	88%	3%	—
Franco Morbidelli	7	4%	18%	36%	71%	19%	11
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	15%	33%	76%	11%	16
Francesco Bagnaia	9	2%	8%	19%	56%	28%	1
Aleix Espargaro	10	1%	6%	16%	56%	24%	10
Joan Mir	11	1%	5%	13%	50%	22%	19
Fabio Quartararo	12	1%	4%	11%	49%	15%	3
Brad Binder	13	0%	2%	7%	42%	13%	8
Jack Miller	14	0%	2%	6%	30%	24%	6
Cal Crutchlow	15	0%	1%	3%	24%	27%	12
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16	0%	1%	2%	21%	17%	—
Johann Zarco	17	0%	1%	1%	16%	18%	9
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	17%	13
Remy Gardner	19	0%	0%	0%	9%	13%	18
Pol Espargaro	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	20%	14
Alex Marquez	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	24%	17
Raul Fernandez	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	15
Tetsuta Nagashima	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	24%	—
Darryn Binder	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	233	—
2	Fabio Quartararo	219	−14
3	Aleix Espargaro	206	−27
4	Enea Bastianini	191	−42
5	Jack Miller	179	−54
6	Brad Binder	160	−73

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

3.059 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P11 to P2.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Valentino Rossi (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	2:00.216	—	+0.292	Medium	18
Marc Marquez	2:00.427	+0.211	+0.210	Soft	18
Andrea Dovizioso	2:00.633	+0.417	+0.226	Soft	18
Alex Rins	2:00.646	+0.430	+0.217	Medium	18
Valentino Rossi	2:00.746	+0.530	+0.508	Medium	18
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.810	+0.594	+0.275	Soft	18
Cal Crutchlow	2:00.871	+0.655	+0.729	Medium	12
Franco Morbidelli	2:00.905	+0.689	+0.512	Medium	18
Johann Zarco	2:00.996	+0.780	+0.344	Medium	14
Joan Mir	2:01.058	+0.842	+0.562	Medium	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	75%	+0.76%	+0.053	1	1	9.7
Soft	25%	+0.50%	+0.055	0	2	7.4

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.