Round 15 of 19 Aftermath

Thailand Grand Prix 2019

4.554 m · 26 laps · since 2018

04.10 – 06.10.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	39:36.223	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+0.171	20
3	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+1.380	16
4	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+11.218	13
5	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+11.449	11
6	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+14.466	10
7	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+18.729	9
8	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.162	8
9	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+23.425	7
10	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+29.423	6
11	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+30.103	5
12	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+33.216	4
13	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+35.667	3
14	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+39.736	2
15	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+40.038	1
16	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+40.136	0
17	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+44.589	0
18	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+54.723	0
19	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+56.012	0
20	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+61.431	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Mika Kallio	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 27%	Marc Marquez · 16% · from P3	0.89 / 0.89	2.6 / 2.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.191	—	+0.275	Soft	24
Marc Marquez	1:31.226	+0.035	+0.210	Soft	24
Maverick Viñales	1:31.239	+0.048	+0.292	Soft	23
Alex Rins	1:31.612	+0.421	+0.217	Soft	24
Andrea Dovizioso	1:31.656	+0.465	+0.226	Soft	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.768	+0.577	+0.512	Soft	23
Valentino Rossi	1:31.912	+0.721	+0.508	Soft	24
Joan Mir	1:31.925	+0.734	+0.562	Soft	23
Danilo Petrucci	1:31.974	+0.783	+0.574	Soft	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.172	+0.981	+0.209	Soft	15
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.274	+1.083	+0.221	Soft	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.302	+1.111	+0.359	Soft	24
Jack Miller	1:32.306	+1.115	+0.105	Soft	23
Cal Crutchlow	1:32.307	+1.116	+0.729	Soft	23
Pol Espargaro	1:32.406	+1.215	+0.406	Soft	23
Andrea Iannone	1:32.585	+1.394	+0.224	Soft	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.726	+1.535	+0.193	Soft	24
Tito Rabat	1:32.810	+1.619	+0.229	Soft	23
Jorge Lorenzo	1:33.164	+1.973	+1.158	Soft	24
Karel Abraham	1:33.197	+2.006	—	Soft	23
Hafizh Syahrin	1:33.434	+2.243	+0.491	Soft	24

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

1/26

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.171 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P10 to P5.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Marc Marquez (26 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:00:45	Jack Miller	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	14:01:26		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:06:39	Mika Kallio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:27:02	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Fabio Quartararo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Mika Kallio	21	16	+5
Francesco Bagnaia	15	11	+4
Andrea Dovizioso	7	4	+3
Jack Miller	6	22	−16
Danilo Petrucci	5	9	−4
Cal Crutchlow	13	17	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	10→5	+3.6
Marc Marquez	3→1	+3.1
Andrea Dovizioso	7→4	+2.7
Pol Espargaro	11→13	−3.7
Karel Abraham	20→19	−4.0
Jack Miller	6→14	−8.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+1.20%	−0.004	1	3	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

28.0 °C

Air

max 28.6 °C

77%

Humidity

2.3 mm

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 31 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:30.979	—	21	326.2	Medium / Medium	1:33.247	+1.59%	5	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.170	+0.191	21	326.2	Medium / Soft	1:32.212	+0.46%	12	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:31.187	+0.208	17	330.2	Soft / Medium	1:31.792	—	13	Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.205	+0.226	20	329.2	Hard / Soft	1:34.545	+3.00%	5	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:31.227	+0.248	18	328.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Valentino Rossi	01:31.482	+0.503	22	327.2	Medium / Hard	1:32.494	+0.77%	12	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.569	+0.590	22	325.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.639	+0.92%	12	Medium
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.593	+0.614	18	327.2	Medium / Medium	1:32.902	+1.21%	5	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:31.753	+0.774	22	327.2	Medium / Soft	1:32.846	+1.15%	12	Medium
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.799	+0.820	20	326.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.085	+1.41%	7	Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:31.847	+0.868	20	327.2	Medium / Soft	1:32.981	+1.30%	5	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.865	+0.886	17	327.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.384	+1.73%	4	Medium
13	Pol Espargaro	01:31.895	+0.916	20	323.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.097	+1.42%	5	Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.947	+0.968	19	325.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.564	+1.93%	6	Medium
15	Andrea Iannone	01:32.239	+1.260	19	325.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.688	+2.07%	8	Medium
16	Tito Rabat	01:32.280	+1.301	21	328.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.058	+2.47%	12	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.524	+1.545	15	316.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.339	+1.69%	6	Medium
18	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.554	+1.575	19	327.2	Soft / Medium	1:33.261	+1.60%	10	Medium
19	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.838	+1.859	19	330.2	Soft / Medium	1:34.559	+3.01%	8	Medium
20	Mika Kallio	01:32.877	+1.898	23	321.4	Soft / Medium	1:33.534	+1.90%	19	Medium
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.033	+2.054	18	318.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.591	+3.05%	5	Medium
22	Karel Abraham	01:33.129	+2.150	17	326.2	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 04.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.404	—	22	324.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.608	+0.34%	8	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:30.597	+0.193	21	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.970	+0.74%	6	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.625	+0.221	21	324.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.214	+1.01%	10	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:30.698	+0.294	18	330.2	Soft / Soft	1:32.095	+0.88%	6	Soft
5	Valentino Rossi	01:30.733	+0.329	21	325.3	Soft / Soft	1:32.129	+0.91%	11	Medium
6	Marc Marquez	01:30.891	+0.487	23	329.2	Hard / Soft	1:31.296	—	13	Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.007	+0.603	18	325.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.706	+1.54%	7	Soft
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.027	+0.623	20	329.2	Soft / Soft	1:31.937	+0.70%	11	Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:31.086	+0.682	18	326.2	Medium / Soft	1:32.331	+1.13%	6	Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:31.094	+0.690	23	326.2	Hard / Soft	1:31.948	+0.71%	11	Soft
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.115	+0.711	19	327.2	Medium / Soft	1:32.324	+1.13%	6	Medium
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.154	+0.750	19	326.2	Hard / Soft	1:32.741	+1.58%	6	Soft
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.344	+0.940	20	328.2	Medium / Soft	1:32.806	+1.65%	11	Hard
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.424	+1.020	21	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.492	+1.31%	10	Soft
15	Pol Espargaro	01:31.499	+1.095	21	325.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.438	+1.25%	11	Hard
16	Andrea Iannone	01:31.512	+1.108	19	323.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.739	+2.68%	4	Soft
17	Karel Abraham	01:31.588	+1.184	18	327.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.914	+2.87%	5	Soft
18	Tito Rabat	01:31.932	+1.528	21	323.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.140	+2.02%	11	Hard
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.936	+1.532	15	320.4	Hard / Soft	1:33.274	+2.17%	5	Soft
20	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.949	+1.545	19	328.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Mika Kallio	01:31.991	+1.587	20	320.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.100	+1.98%	9	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.584	+2.180	18	322.3	Hard / Soft	1:33.658	+2.59%	10	Soft

FP3 · 05.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:36.250	—	13	319.5	Soft / Soft	1:43.615	+3.31%	7	Wet-Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.074	+0.824	16	317.6	Soft / Soft	1:42.727	+2.43%	5	Wet-Medium
3	Alex Rins	01:37.644	+1.394	14	317.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	01:38.864	+2.614	13	314.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.011	+1.72%	7	Wet-Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:38.949	+2.699	14	305.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.802	+2.50%	8	Wet-Medium
6	Karel Abraham	01:39.057	+2.807	14	304.2	Soft / Soft	1:45.744	+5.44%	5	Wet-Medium
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.502	+3.252	14	295.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.105	+0.81%	5	Wet-Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:39.926	+3.676	14	308.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:41.136	+0.84%	5	Wet-Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.019	+3.769	14	314.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:40.291	—	4	Wet-Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.152	+3.902	14	294.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.851	+3.55%	6	Wet-Medium
11	Valentino Rossi	01:40.232	+3.982	16	312.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.794	+2.50%	9	Wet-Medium
12	Jack Miller	01:40.289	+4.039	12	309.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.500	+2.20%	6	Wet-Medium
13	Mika Kallio	01:40.389	+4.139	13	300.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.463	+4.213	16	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.722	+3.42%	10	Wet-Medium
15	Jorge Lorenzo	01:40.886	+4.636	13	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.251	+5.001	15	313.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.633	+2.34%	9	Wet-Medium
17	Tito Rabat	01:41.351	+5.101	16	308.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.348	+3.05%	9	Wet-Medium
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.409	+5.159	14	309.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.570	+5.320	9	307.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.823	+2.53%	6	Wet-Medium
20	Andrea Iannone	01:42.301	+6.051	8	300.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Pol Espargaro	01:42.559	+6.309	10	297.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
—	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.425	+9.175	5	287.2	missing / missing	—			—

FP4 · 05.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.755	—	16	328.2	Hard / Soft	1:31.622	+0.47%	7	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	01:30.782	+0.027	16	327.2	Hard / Soft	1:31.190	—	8	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:30.953	+0.198	17	325.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.676	+0.53%	12	Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:31.253	+0.498	15	330.2	Hard / Soft	1:31.601	+0.45%	9	Soft
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.389	+0.634	15	328.2	Hard / Soft	1:32.277	+1.19%	6	Soft
6	Valentino Rossi	01:31.411	+0.656	16	325.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.690	+0.55%	8	Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:31.427	+0.672	15	327.2	Hard / Soft	1:32.102	+1.00%	11	Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.471	+0.716	17	325.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.871	+0.75%	12	Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:31.472	+0.717	14	326.2	Hard / Soft	1:32.069	+0.96%	5	Soft
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.495	+0.740	14	332.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.711	+1.67%	5	Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:31.527	+0.772	17	326.2	Hard / Soft	1:32.663	+1.62%	7	Medium
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.610	+0.855	14	327.2	Hard / Medium	1:32.411	+1.34%	12	Medium
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:31.780	+1.025	16	324.3	Hard / Soft	1:33.594	+2.64%	5	Soft
14	Andrea Iannone	01:32.026	+1.271	15	323.3	Hard / Medium	1:32.213	+1.12%	5	Medium
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.125	+1.370	12	324.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.132	+1.377	17	323.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.629	+1.58%	12	Soft
17	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.235	+1.480	16	321.4	Hard / Soft	1:32.630	+1.58%	7	Soft
18	Mika Kallio	01:32.244	+1.489	16	322.3	Hard / Soft	1:33.212	+2.22%	12	Soft
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.294	+1.539	15	319.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.604	+1.55%	7	Soft
20	Tito Rabat	01:32.371	+1.616	15	327.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.559	+2.60%	6	Medium
21	Karel Abraham	01:32.797	+2.042	12	326.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.631	+2.68%	5	Soft
22	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.894	+2.139	13	325.3	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 05.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.685	—	9	327.2	Hard / Soft
2	Pol Espargaro	01:30.956	+0.271	8	325.3	Hard / Soft
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:30.969	+0.284	8	329.2	Hard / Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.388	+0.703	8	323.3	Medium / Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.416	+0.731	5	324.3	Medium / Soft
6	Andrea Iannone	01:31.428	+0.743	8	323.3	Hard / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.499	+0.814	8	320.4	Hard / Soft
8	Tito Rabat	01:31.554	+0.869	9	328.2	Medium / Soft
9	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.605	+0.920	8	327.2	Soft / Soft
10	Karel Abraham	01:31.773	+1.088	8	328.2	Medium / Soft
11	Mika Kallio	01:31.849	+1.164	9	321.4	Hard / Soft
12	Hafizh Syahrin	01:31.979	+1.294	8	319.5	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 05.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.719	—	8	326.2	Hard / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:29.825	+0.106	9	325.3	Hard / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:29.931	+0.212	7	327.2	Hard / Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.431	+0.712	9	321.4	Hard / Soft
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:30.522	+0.803	7	330.2	Medium / Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:30.597	+0.878	8	331.2	Soft / Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.692	+0.973	8	327.2	Hard / Soft
8	Joan Mir	01:30.735	+1.016	9	326.2	Medium / Soft
9	Valentino Rossi	01:30.741	+1.022	6	321.4	Hard / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:30.778	+1.059	8	326.2	Hard / Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:31.065	+1.346	3	325.3	Medium / Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.258	+1.539	6	325.3	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 06.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:30.921	—	13	326.2	Hard / Soft	1:31.312	—	10	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.149	+0.228	13	320.4	Hard / Soft	1:31.448	+0.15%	10	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:31.181	+0.260	12	320.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Valentino Rossi	01:31.329	+0.408	13	320.4	Hard / Soft	1:31.737	+0.47%	8	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.421	+0.500	13	318.5	Hard / Soft	1:31.784	+0.52%	9	Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.463	+0.542	7	329.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:31.485	+0.564	13	324.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.734	+0.46%	9	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.579	+0.658	12	323.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.754	+1.58%	8	Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:31.583	+0.662	13	325.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.929	+0.68%	10	Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:31.678	+0.757	13	329.2	Hard / Soft	1:31.848	+0.59%	10	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.694	+0.773	13	322.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.492	+1.29%	10	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.798	+0.877	13	319.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.536	+1.34%	10	Soft
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.825	+0.904	10	326.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Pol Espargaro	01:31.832	+0.911	13	322.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.446	+1.24%	10	Soft
15	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.948	+1.027	13	324.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.899	+1.74%	10	Soft
16	Andrea Iannone	01:32.110	+1.189	12	322.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.666	+1.48%	6	Soft
17	Tito Rabat	01:32.136	+1.215	13	323.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.869	+1.71%	11	Soft
18	Mika Kallio	01:32.159	+1.238	13	319.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.694	+1.51%	10	Soft
19	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.204	+1.283	11	324.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.450	+1.25%	5	Soft
20	Karel Abraham	01:32.465	+1.544	13	325.3	Hard / Soft	1:34.594	+3.59%	7	Soft
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:32.975	+2.054	12	314.8	Hard / Soft	1:33.586	+2.49%	8	Soft
22	Jorge Lorenzo	01:33.008	+2.087	12	326.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.174	+2.04%	5	Soft

Race · 06.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	39:36.223	25	26	Hard / Soft	1:31.226	+0.04%	24	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	+0.171	20	26	Hard / Soft	1:31.191	—	24	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	+1.380	16	26	Hard / Soft	1:31.239	+0.05%	23	Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	+11.218	13	26	Hard / Soft	1:31.656	+0.51%	23	Soft
5	Alex Rins	+11.449	11	26	Hard / Soft	1:31.612	+0.46%	24	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	+14.466	10	26	Hard / Soft	1:31.768	+0.63%	23	Soft
7	Joan Mir	+18.729	9	26	Hard / Soft	1:31.925	+0.81%	23	Soft
8	Valentino Rossi	+19.162	8	26	Hard / Soft	1:31.912	+0.79%	24	Soft
9	Danilo Petrucci	+23.425	7	26	Hard / Soft	1:31.974	+0.86%	23	Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	+29.423	6	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.302	+1.22%	24	Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	+30.103	5	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.274	+1.19%	22	Soft
12	Cal Crutchlow	+33.216	4	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.307	+1.22%	23	Soft
13	Pol Espargaro	+35.667	3	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.406	+1.33%	23	Soft
14	Jack Miller	+39.736	2	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.306	+1.22%	23	Soft
15	Andrea Iannone	+40.038	1	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.585	+1.53%	21	Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	+40.136	0	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.726	+1.68%	24	Soft
17	Tito Rabat	+44.589	0	26	Hard / Soft	1:32.810	+1.78%	23	Soft
18	Jorge Lorenzo	+54.723	0	26	Medium / Soft	1:33.164	+2.16%	24	Soft
19	Karel Abraham	+56.012	0	26	Hard / Soft	1:33.197	+2.20%	23	Soft
20	Hafizh Syahrin	+61.431	0	26	Hard / Soft	1:33.434	+2.46%	24	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	17	Hard / Soft	1:32.172	+1.08%	15	Soft
Retired	Mika Kallio		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:31.794	—	+0.292	Medium	5
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.037	+0.243	+0.512	Medium	7
Jorge Lorenzo	1:32.838*	+1.044	+1.158	Medium	3
Mika Kallio	1:33.436*	+1.642	+0.462	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Danilo Petrucci	58%	1 ✓
2	Francesco Bagnaia	42%	5
3	Cal Crutchlow	33%	3
4	Takaaki Nakagami	19%	4
5	Pol Espargaro	17%	2 ✓
6	Andrea Iannone	8%	6
7	Karel Abraham	10%	10
8	Tito Rabat	4%	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	3%	7
10	Jorge Lorenzo	3%	9
11	Mika Kallio	2%	11
12	Hafizh Syahrin	1%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	37%	69%	90%	1
2	Maverick Viñales	25%	51%	84%	2
3	Franco Morbidelli	17%	50%	83%	4
4	Jack Miller	4%	33%	69%	6
5	Valentino Rossi	3%	28%	56%	9
6	Marc Marquez	7%	21%	54%	3
7	Aleix Espargaro	1%	12%	45%	12
8	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	12%	36%	7
9	Joan Mir	1%	7%	28%	8
10	Alex Rins	3%	7%	22%	10
11	Danilo Petrucci	1%	7%	22%	5
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	1%	13%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	27%	55%	68%	76%	21%	2
Maverick Viñales	2	22%	54%	71%	85%	12%	3
Marc Marquez	3	16%	47%	67%	84%	13%	1
Franco Morbidelli	4	11%	36%	55%	77%	20%	6
Danilo Petrucci	5	7%	28%	49%	75%	20%	9
Jack Miller	6	5%	20%	39%	67%	27%	14
Andrea Dovizioso	7	4%	18%	40%	78%	13%	4
Joan Mir	8	3%	12%	28%	66%	23%	7
Valentino Rossi	9	2%	9%	25%	72%	9%	8
Alex Rins	10	1%	6%	18%	58%	22%	5
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	11%	53%	21%	13
Aleix Espargaro	12	1%	3%	8%	46%	25%	—
Cal Crutchlow	13	1%	2%	6%	34%	28%	12
Takaaki Nakagami	14	0%	2%	5%	37%	14%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	36%	11
Andrea Iannone	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	25%	15
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	2%	17%	11%	16
Tito Rabat	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	18%	17
Jorge Lorenzo	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	11%	18
Karel Abraham	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	30%	19
Mika Kallio	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	34%	—
Hafizh Syahrin	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	22%	20

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,567 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.41%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.37%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.39%
S3	Raul Fernandez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%	Alex Marquez +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Raul Fernandez +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S2	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.53%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%
S4	Jack Miller +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Franco Morbidelli +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.60%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%
S4	Jorge Martin	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.53%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.42%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.41%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.39%
S4	Valentino Rossi	Andrea Dovizioso +0.50%	Maverick Viñales +0.51%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

19/100

Position index

71%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 60% of the time (between 31% and 83%; 10 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	300	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	202	−98
3	Alex Rins	156	−144
4	Danilo Petrucci	155	−145
5	Maverick Viñales	147	−153
6	Valentino Rossi	137	−163

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

5/26

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.115 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Scott Redding, from P23 to P16.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Marc Marquez (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Daniel Pedrosa	1:31.855	—	+0.089	Hard	15
Maverick Viñales	1:31.924	+0.069	+0.292	Hard	24
Marc Marquez	1:31.950	+0.095	+0.210	Hard	24
Johann Zarco	1:31.965	+0.110	+0.344	Hard	24
Alex Rins	1:31.980	+0.125	+0.217	Hard	24
Valentino Rossi	1:31.994	+0.139	+0.508	Hard	24
Andrea Dovizioso	1:32.024	+0.169	+0.226	Hard	24
Alvaro Bautista	1:32.082	+0.227	+0.086	Hard	24
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.110	+0.255	+0.574	Hard	24
Jack Miller	1:32.184	+0.329	+0.105	Hard	24

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Miguel OliveiraKTM
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 12% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	2/22	9%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	3/21	14%
2022	1/24	4%
2019	2/22	9%

Tyres at the last edition

2018 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	96%	+0.37%	−0.002	1	3	11.4
Soft	4%	+0.93%	+0.013	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.