Round 1 of 19 Aftermath

Qatar Grand Prix 2019

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004

08.03 – 10.03.2019

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	42:36.902	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.023	20
3	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+0.320	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+0.457	13
5	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+0.600	11
6	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Mission Winnow Ducati	+2.320	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+2.481	9
8	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+5.088	8
9	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+7.406	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+9.636	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+9.647	5
12	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.774	4
13	Jorge Lorenzo	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.307	3
14	Andrea Iannone	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+14.349	2
15	Johann Zarco	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+15.093	1
16	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+15.905	0
17	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+16.377	0
18	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+22.972	0
19	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+23.039	0
20	Hafizh Syahrin	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech 3	+43.242	0
DNF	Bradley Smith	Aprilia	Aprilia Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Maverick Viñales · 30%	Andrea Dovizioso · 21% · from P2	0.76 / 0.76	2.9 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	1:55.858	—	+0.217	Medium	20
Valentino Rossi	1:55.882	+0.024	+0.508	Medium	20
Marc Marquez	1:55.895	+0.037	+0.210	Medium	20
Andrea Dovizioso	1:55.929	+0.071	+0.226	Medium	20
Cal Crutchlow	1:55.938	+0.080	+0.729	Medium	20
Danilo Petrucci	1:55.967	+0.109	+0.574	Soft	20
Maverick Viñales	1:55.990	+0.132	+0.292	Medium	20
Joan Mir	1:56.056	+0.198	+0.562	Soft	20
Jack Miller	1:56.078	+0.220	+0.105	Medium	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:56.081	+0.223	+0.359	Soft	20
Fabio Quartararo	1:56.108	+0.250	+0.275	Soft	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:56.225	+0.367	+0.209	Soft	20
Franco Morbidelli	1:56.232	+0.374	+0.512	Soft	20
Andrea Iannone	1:56.324	+0.466	+0.224	Soft	20
Pol Espargaro	1:56.397	+0.539	+0.406	Soft	20
Jorge Lorenzo	1:56.414	+0.556	+1.158	Medium	20
Johann Zarco	1:56.458	+0.600	+0.344	Medium	20
Miguel Oliveira	1:56.602	+0.744	+0.193	Soft	20
Karel Abraham	1:56.710	+0.852	—	Soft	20
Tito Rabat	1:56.840	+0.982	+0.229	Soft	20
Francesco Bagnaia	1:56.900	+1.042	+0.221	Soft	6
Hafizh Syahrin	1:57.517	+1.659	+0.491	Soft	20
Bradley Smith	1:57.554	+1.696	+0.085	Soft	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

18/22

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

0.023 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P14 to P5.

Longest battle: Miguel Oliveira vs Pol Espargaro (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	20:01:07	Fabio Quartararo	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	20:03:38		Jump start	Jump start
Race	20:22:22	Francesco Bagnaia	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	20:26:27	Jack Miller	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	20:40:46	Bradley Smith	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Andrea Dovizioso (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Joan Mir	11	6	+5
Johann Zarco	21	17	+4
Takaaki Nakagami	9	5	+4
Fabio Quartararo	5	23	−18
Maverick Viñales	1	7	−6
Franco Morbidelli	8	13	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	14→5	+6.2
Alex Rins	10→4	+4.6
Cal Crutchlow	6→3	+3.0
Maverick Viñales	1→7	−4.2
Tito Rabat	18→19	−5.2
Fabio Quartararo	5→16	−10.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	61%	+0.43%	+0.007	0	0	13.3
Medium	39%	+0.07%	−0.047	1	3	6.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

16.5 °C

Air

max 17.7 °C

59%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 19 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 08.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Valentino Rossi	01:55.048	—	18	336.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.127	+0.079	16	337.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:55.164	+0.116	17	341.9	Hard / Medium	1:55.667	+0.01%	5	Medium
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.217	+0.169	17	342.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:55.267	+0.219	17	341.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Maverick Viñales	01:55.312	+0.264	19	332.9	Hard / Medium	1:55.659	—	7	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.324	+0.276	18	331.3	Medium / Medium	1:56.568	+0.79%	5	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:55.396	+0.348	17	344.8	Medium / Medium	1:56.369	+0.61%	5	Medium
9	Alex Rins	01:55.409	+0.361	16	338.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:55.496	+0.448	17	338.1	Hard / Medium	1:56.432	+0.67%	4	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:55.509	+0.461	16	335.9	Hard / Medium	—			—
12	Pol Espargaro	01:55.620	+0.572	15	338.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.778	+0.730	14	336.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
14	Joan Mir	01:55.828	+0.780	17	339.1	Medium / Medium	1:56.482	+0.71%	5	Medium
15	Andrea Iannone	01:55.828	+0.780	17	336.6	Medium / Medium	1:59.820	+3.60%	5	Medium
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:55.835	+0.787	15	337.0	Medium / Medium	1:57.320	+1.44%	5	Medium
17	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.869	+0.821	17	346.1	Hard / Medium	1:57.082	+1.23%	5	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:56.061	+1.013	16	336.1	Hard / Medium	—			—
19	Johann Zarco	01:56.206	+1.158	17	334.1	Hard / Medium	1:57.305	+1.42%	5	Medium
20	Karel Abraham	01:56.249	+1.201	16	335.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Tito Rabat	01:56.289	+1.241	16	340.1	Medium / Medium	1:57.030	+1.19%	5	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:57.181	+2.133	12	330.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
23	Bradley Smith	01:57.189	+2.141	16	338.9	Medium / Medium	1:57.950	+1.98%	6	Medium

FP2 · 08.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:53.380	—	18	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:55.474	—	10	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:53.854	+0.474	16	337.1	Soft / Soft	1:55.477	+0.00%	6	Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:53.908	+0.528	19	351.6	Soft / Soft	1:55.760	+0.25%	10	Medium
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:54.053	+0.673	16	343.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:54.154	+0.774	17	337.3	Medium / Soft	1:55.533	+0.05%	5	Soft
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:54.256	+0.876	17	349.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:54.275	+0.895	16	343.1	Soft / Soft	1:55.599	+0.11%	9	Medium
8	Alex Rins	01:54.320	+0.940	19	341.2	Soft / Soft	1:55.516	+0.04%	9	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.367	+0.987	15	346.9	Medium / Soft	1:55.608	+0.12%	5	Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:54.402	+1.022	17	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:55.633	+0.14%	5	Medium
11	Jorge Lorenzo	01:54.428	+1.048	17	342.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.444	+1.064	17	347.3	Medium / Soft	1:56.573	+0.95%	5	Medium
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:54.452	+1.072	17	350.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:54.801	+1.421	16	343.2	Medium / Soft	1:55.605	+0.11%	5	Soft
15	Tito Rabat	01:55.032	+1.652	18	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	01:55.053	+1.673	17	344.7	Medium / Soft	2:00.116	+4.02%	5	Medium
17	Valentino Rossi	01:55.137	+1.757	16	343.0	Soft / Soft	1:56.166	+0.60%	6	Medium
18	Johann Zarco	01:55.412	+2.032	17	341.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Andrea Iannone	01:55.432	+2.052	16	343.1	Soft / Soft	1:56.452	+0.85%	4	Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.635	+2.255	18	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:56.858	+1.20%	7	Medium
21	Karel Abraham	01:55.654	+2.274	16	342.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:56.437	+3.057	17	337.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Bradley Smith	01:56.834	+3.454	16	345.6	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 09.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:54.677	—	14	343.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:54.740	+0.063	15	336.2	Soft / Soft	1:57.278	+1.74%	5	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	01:54.879	+0.202	16	338.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Valentino Rossi	01:55.098	+0.421	19	330.6	Medium / Soft	1:55.802	+0.46%	5	Medium
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:55.141	+0.464	18	334.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Alex Rins	01:55.142	+0.465	14	333.2	Hard / Medium	1:55.275	—	5	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.161	+0.484	19	334.2	Medium / Soft	1:56.187	+0.79%	5	Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	01:55.220	+0.543	18	328.4	Hard / Medium	1:56.370	+0.95%	5	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	01:55.460	+0.783	18	338.7	Medium / Soft	1:56.209	+0.81%	5	Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.557	+0.880	16	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Jack Miller	01:55.766	+1.089	15	339.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.806	+1.129	17	343.2	Hard / Soft	1:56.337	+0.92%	5	Soft
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:55.855	+1.178	15	338.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.887	+1.210	16	341.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Fabio Quartararo	01:56.005	+1.328	18	332.2	Medium / Soft	1:56.417	+0.99%	11	Soft
16	Andrea Iannone	01:56.161	+1.484	17	334.3	Hard / Soft	1:56.796	+1.32%	5	Soft
17	Joan Mir	01:56.310	+1.633	17	338.2	Medium / Medium	1:57.058	+1.55%	5	Soft
18	Karel Abraham	01:56.381	+1.704	15	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Tito Rabat	01:56.532	+1.855	18	337.1	Medium / Medium	1:57.114	+1.60%	5	Medium
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.559	+1.882	10	337.6	Medium / Soft	1:56.946	+1.45%	5	Soft
21	Bradley Smith	01:56.902	+2.225	16	339.0	Medium / Medium	1:57.780	+2.17%	6	Medium
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:57.392	+2.715	12	326.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP4 · 09.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:54.854	—	13	345.1	Soft / Soft	1:55.090	—	9	Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:54.867	+0.013	13	344.7	Medium / Medium	1:56.243	+1.00%	5	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:54.940	+0.086	14	331.6	Medium / Soft	1:55.470	+0.33%	8	Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:55.092	+0.238	16	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:56.107	+0.88%	14	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:55.203	+0.349	16	336.6	missing / missing	1:55.391	+0.26%	14	missing
6	Marc Marquez	01:55.242	+0.388	11	344.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:55.359	+0.505	16	343.2	Soft / Soft	1:55.670	+0.50%	14	Soft
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:55.364	+0.510	15	332.9	Medium / Medium	1:55.872	+0.68%	8	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.380	+0.526	12	345.6	Medium / Soft	1:55.858	+0.67%	5	Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:55.434	+0.580	10	340.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.476	+0.622	12	345.4	Medium / Soft	1:57.642	+2.22%	5	Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.591	+0.737	12	338.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Andrea Iannone	01:55.647	+0.793	12	339.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Tito Rabat	01:55.812	+0.958	11	345.4	Soft / Soft	1:56.135	+0.91%	9	Soft
15	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.961	+1.107	13	335.5	Soft / Medium	1:56.254	+1.01%	6	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:56.011	+1.157	10	334.8	Medium / Medium	1:56.240	+1.00%	5	Soft
17	Francesco Bagnaia	01:56.077	+1.223	10	338.9	Medium / Soft	1:56.418	+1.15%	5	Soft
18	Valentino Rossi	01:56.086	+1.232	13	329.9	Soft / Medium	1:56.521	+1.24%	5	Medium
19	Pol Espargaro	01:56.245	+1.391	13	338.3	Soft / Soft	1:57.710	+2.28%	7	Soft
20	Johann Zarco	01:56.629	+1.775	6	335.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:56.827	+1.973	8	340.1	Soft / Soft	1:57.453	+2.05%	6	Soft
22	Bradley Smith	01:56.926	+2.072	12	339.1	Soft / Soft	1:57.333	+1.95%	5	Medium
23	Hafizh Syahrin	01:57.051	+2.197	11	336.9	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 09.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:54.270	—	6	344.7	Medium / Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.431	+0.161	7	337.3	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:54.472	+0.202	7	338.8	Soft / Soft
4	Valentino Rossi	01:54.537	+0.267	7	336.3	Soft / Soft
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:54.563	+0.293	4	339.6	Soft / Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:54.740	+0.470	7	333.9	Medium / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.122	+0.852	7	338.9	Medium / Soft
8	Tito Rabat	01:55.428	+1.158	5	344.0	Soft / Soft
9	Andrea Iannone	01:55.464	+1.194	7	343.4	Soft / Soft
10	Karel Abraham	01:55.642	+1.372	7	341.3	Soft / Soft
11	Johann Zarco	01:55.797	+1.527	6	332.5	Soft / Soft
12	Hafizh Syahrin	01:55.937	+1.667	7	337.3	Soft / Soft
13	Bradley Smith	01:56.036	+1.766	6	335.7	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 09.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:53.546	—	7	329.3	Soft / Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:53.744	+0.198	7	342.0	missing / missing
3	Marc Marquez	01:53.745	+0.199	7	346.0	Medium / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:53.809	+0.263	6	344.7	Soft / Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.946	+0.400	7	335.1	missing / missing
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:54.095	+0.549	7	346.4	Medium / Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:54.200	+0.654	7	338.7	Soft / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:54.236	+0.690	7	332.4	Soft / Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.239	+0.693	7	336.7	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:54.257	+0.711	7	335.5	Soft / Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:54.390	+0.844	7	338.7	Soft / Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.917	+1.371	7	342.2	Medium / missing

Warm Up · 10.03 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:54.807	—	10	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:55.342	+0.15%	8	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:54.864	+0.057	11	336.4	Medium / Medium	1:55.169	—	9	Medium
3	Alex Rins	01:54.943	+0.136	10	334.9	Hard / Medium	1:55.581	+0.36%	6	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:55.100	+0.293	10	334.0	Medium / Medium	1:55.606	+0.38%	8	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.177	+0.370	11	329.7	Medium / Soft	1:55.301	+0.12%	9	Soft
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:55.247	+0.440	10	335.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.286	+0.479	10	340.3	Medium / Medium	1:56.068	+0.78%	8	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:55.482	+0.675	10	345.1	Medium / Medium	1:56.126	+0.83%	8	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.494	+0.687	10	338.8	Hard / Soft	1:56.236	+0.93%	7	Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:55.554	+0.747	9	337.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Valentino Rossi	01:55.558	+0.751	9	329.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:55.635	+0.828	9	336.2	Medium / Soft	1:55.831	+0.58%	5	Soft
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:55.663	+0.856	10	333.3	Medium / Soft	1:55.900	+0.64%	7	Soft
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.673	+0.866	10	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:55.836	+0.58%	6	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.829	+1.022	10	327.7	Hard / Soft	1:56.114	+0.82%	7	Soft
16	Joan Mir	01:55.843	+1.036	10	334.1	Medium / Medium	1:56.116	+0.82%	7	Medium
17	Andrea Iannone	01:55.931	+1.124	10	338.0	Medium / Soft	1:56.333	+1.01%	7	Soft
18	Johann Zarco	01:56.105	+1.298	10	332.5	Medium / Medium	1:56.618	+1.26%	7	Medium
19	Tito Rabat	01:56.140	+1.333	10	340.5	Medium / missing	1:56.182	+0.88%	7	missing
20	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.507	+1.700	10	335.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	01:56.558	+1.751	8	333.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Hafizh Syahrin	01:56.617	+1.810	8	326.4	Hard / Medium	1:57.370	+1.91%	5	Medium
23	Bradley Smith	01:56.635	+1.828	10	338.3	Soft / Soft	1:56.961	+1.56%	8	Soft

Race · 10.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	42:36.902	25	22	Medium / Medium	1:55.929	+0.06%	20	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	+0.023	20	22	Medium / Medium	1:55.895	+0.03%	20	Medium
3	Cal Crutchlow	+0.320	16	22	Medium / Medium	1:55.938	+0.07%	20	Medium
4	Alex Rins	+0.457	13	22	Medium / Medium	1:55.858	—	20	Medium
5	Valentino Rossi	+0.600	11	22	Medium / Medium	1:55.882	+0.02%	20	Medium
6	Danilo Petrucci	+2.320	10	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.967	+0.09%	20	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	+2.481	9	22	Medium / Medium	1:55.990	+0.11%	20	Medium
8	Joan Mir	+5.088	8	22	Medium / Soft	1:56.056	+0.17%	20	Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	+7.406	7	22	Medium / Soft	1:56.081	+0.19%	20	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	+9.636	6	22	Medium / Soft	1:56.225	+0.32%	20	Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	+9.647	5	22	Medium / Soft	1:56.232	+0.32%	20	Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	+12.774	4	22	Medium / Soft	1:56.397	+0.47%	20	Soft
13	Jorge Lorenzo	+14.307	3	22	Medium / Medium	1:56.414	+0.48%	20	Medium
14	Andrea Iannone	+14.349	2	22	Medium / Soft	1:56.324	+0.40%	20	Soft
15	Johann Zarco	+15.093	1	22	Medium / Medium	1:56.458	+0.52%	20	Medium
16	Fabio Quartararo	+15.905	0	22	Medium / Soft	1:56.108	+0.22%	20	Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	+16.377	0	22	Medium / Soft	1:56.602	+0.64%	20	Soft
18	Karel Abraham	+22.972	0	22	Medium / Soft	1:56.710	+0.74%	20	Soft
19	Tito Rabat	+23.039	0	22	Soft / Soft	1:56.840	+0.85%	20	Soft
20	Hafizh Syahrin	+43.242	0	22	Medium / Soft	1:57.517	+1.43%	20	Soft
Retired	Bradley Smith		0	20	Soft / Soft	1:57.554	+1.46%	18	Soft
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	9	Medium / Soft	1:56.900	+0.90%	6	Soft
Retired	Jack Miller		0	12	Medium / Medium	1:56.078	+0.19%	10	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:54.939*	—	+0.292	Medium	3
Jorge Lorenzo	1:55.486*	+0.547	+1.158	Medium	3
Cal Crutchlow	1:55.525*	+0.586	+0.729	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:55.599*	+0.660	+0.512	Medium	3
Alex Rins	1:55.684	+0.745	+0.217	Medium	14
Andrea Dovizioso	1:55.758	+0.819	+0.226	Medium	8
Pol Espargaro	1:56.174*	+1.235	+0.406	Medium	4
Valentino Rossi	1:56.314	+1.375	+0.508	Medium	10
Andrea Iannone	1:56.349*	+1.410	+0.224	Medium	3
Joan Mir	1:56.788	+1.849	+0.562	Medium	6
Francesco Bagnaia	1:57.018*	+2.079	+0.221	Medium	3
Karel Abraham	1:57.070*	+2.131	—	Medium	3
Tito Rabat	1:57.078	+2.139	+0.229	Medium	10
Bradley Smith	1:57.510	+2.571	+0.085	Medium	13
Hafizh Syahrin	1:57.880	+2.941	+0.491	Medium	5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jorge Lorenzo	58%	5
2	Takaaki Nakagami	46%	2 ✓
3	Cal Crutchlow	34%	1 ✓
4	Francesco Bagnaia	18%	3
5	Pol Espargaro	17%	6
6	Tito Rabat	8%	8
7	Valentino Rossi	9%	4
8	Johann Zarco	4%	11
9	Andrea Iannone	3%	9
10	Miguel Oliveira	3%	7
11	Karel Abraham	2%	10
12	Hafizh Syahrin	0%	12
13	Bradley Smith	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	37%	70%	92%	3
2	Maverick Viñales	23%	51%	84%	1
3	Jack Miller	15%	47%	82%	4
4	Danilo Petrucci	5%	36%	69%	7
5	Fabio Quartararo	4%	28%	57%	5
6	Andrea Dovizioso	8%	22%	56%	2
7	Franco Morbidelli	1%	10%	45%	8
8	Alex Rins	3%	14%	36%	10
9	Aleix Espargaro	1%	7%	26%	12
10	Joan Mir	3%	8%	22%	11
11	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	7%	20%	9
12	Cal Crutchlow	0%	1%	11%	6

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Maverick Viñales	1	30%	62%	78%	87%	10%	7
Andrea Dovizioso	2	21%	52%	69%	84%	13%	1
Marc Marquez	3	15%	45%	66%	82%	14%	2
Jack Miller	4	9%	31%	50%	70%	27%	—
Fabio Quartararo	5	7%	28%	48%	76%	19%	16
Cal Crutchlow	6	5%	21%	38%	65%	28%	3
Danilo Petrucci	7	4%	18%	35%	70%	22%	6
Franco Morbidelli	8	3%	14%	33%	76%	10%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	9	2%	9%	23%	67%	13%	9
Alex Rins	10	1%	6%	17%	56%	22%	4
Joan Mir	11	1%	4%	12%	51%	19%	8
Aleix Espargaro	12	1%	3%	8%	42%	25%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	13	1%	3%	7%	39%	19%	—
Valentino Rossi	14	0%	2%	6%	37%	8%	5
Jorge Lorenzo	15	0%	1%	4%	30%	10%	13
Pol Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	23%	12
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	2%	14%	19%	17
Tito Rabat	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	16%	19
Andrea Iannone	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	27%	14
Karel Abraham	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	31%	18
Johann Zarco	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	10%	15
Hafizh Syahrin	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	20
Bradley Smith	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.50%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%	Ai Ogura +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Alex Marquez +0.41%	Alex Rins +0.51%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Franco Morbidelli +0.31%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.55%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.19%	Raul Fernandez +0.43%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.21%
S4	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%	Joan Mir +0.37%
S2	Pol Espargaro +0.40%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S3	Alex Rins +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.19%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Franco Morbidelli +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.27%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.47%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%
S4	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Danilo Petrucci +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.26%
S2	Valentino Rossi +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.45%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.15%	Alex Rins +0.32%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%

Fastest per sector: 2019

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

57/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

2018 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

5/22

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

0.027 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P21 to P13.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Marc Marquez (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2018 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	n
Maverick Viñales	1:55.693	—	+0.292	20
Andrea Dovizioso	1:55.762	+0.069	+0.226	20
Alex Rins	1:55.778	+0.085	+0.217	10
Valentino Rossi	1:55.784	+0.091	+0.508	20
Marc Marquez	1:55.826	+0.133	+0.210	20
Cal Crutchlow	1:55.844	+0.151	+0.729	20
Jorge Lorenzo	1:55.922	+0.229	+1.158	10
Danilo Petrucci	1:55.975	+0.282	+0.574	20
Daniel Pedrosa	1:56.020	+0.327	+0.089	20
Johann Zarco	1:56.021	+0.328	+0.344	20

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	1/22	5%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	6/24	25%
2021	3/22	14%
2019	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet