Round 2 of 19 Aftermath

Argentine Grand Prix 2018

4.805 m · 25 laps · since 2014

06.04 – 08.04.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	40:36.342	25
2	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+0.251	20
3	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.501	16
4	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+4.390	13
5	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+14.941	11
6	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+22.533	10
7	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+23.026	9
8	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+23.921	8
9	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+24.311	7
10	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+26.003	6
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+31.022	5
12	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+31.891	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+32.452	3
14	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+42.061	2
15	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+42.274	1
16	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+42.625	0
17	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+43.350	0
18	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+43.860	0
19	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+52.082	0
20	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+63.944	0
21	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+70.144	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jack Miller · 25%	Cal Crutchlow · 1% · from P10	0.52 / 0.52	4.2 / 4.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:40.482	—	+0.210	Medium	20
Cal Crutchlow	1:41.189	+0.707	+0.729	Medium	22
Alex Rins	1:41.212	+0.730	+0.217	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:41.264	+0.782	+0.344	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:41.280	+0.798	+0.105	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:41.407	+0.925	+0.292	Medium	22
Hafizh Syahrin	1:41.890	+1.408	+0.491	Medium	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:41.946	+1.464	+0.574	Medium	22
Valentino Rossi	1:41.957	+1.475	+0.508	Medium	21
Pol Espargaro	1:41.969	+1.487	+0.406	Medium	22
Jorge Lorenzo	1:41.980	+1.498	+1.158	Medium	22
Andrea Dovizioso	1:42.169	+1.687	+0.226	Medium	22
Tito Rabat	1:42.184	+1.702	+0.229	Medium	22
Scott Redding	1:42.304	+1.822	+0.263	Medium	22
Andrea Iannone	1:42.319	+1.837	+0.224	Medium	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:42.470	+1.988	+0.359	Medium	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:42.746	+2.264	+0.512	Medium	22
Thomas Luthi	1:42.809	+2.327	+0.237	Medium	22
Karel Abraham	1:42.950	+2.468	—	Medium	21
Alvaro Bautista	1:43.018	+2.536	+0.086	Medium	22
Bradley Smith	1:43.134	+2.652	+0.085	Medium	15
Xavier Simeon	1:43.362	+2.880	—	Medium	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:43.854	+3.372	+0.209	Medium	11

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

122

Overtakes

Lead changes

5 leaders

4/24

Laps led by the winner

Cal Crutchlow

0.251 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hafizh Syahrin, from P23 to P10.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Johann Zarco (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	15:22:34		Jump start	Jump start
Race	15:22:41	Daniel Pedrosa	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:29:26	Marc Marquez	Ride through	Ride through penalty
Race	15:31:08		Ride through	Ride through
Race	15:37:47	Marc Marquez	Position penalty	To drop 1 position
Race	15:45:30	Aleix Espargaro	Retired	Retired
Race	15:51:12	Bradley Smith	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:55:03	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:06:20	Marc Marquez	Ride through	Ride through penalty time - 30 seconds

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jack Miller (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Bradley Smith	21	9	+12
Hafizh Syahrin	23	15	+8
Cal Crutchlow	10	5	+5
Jorge Lorenzo	14	23	−9
Aleix Espargaro	7	13	−6
Karel Abraham	13	17	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Hafizh Syahrin	23→9	+8.0
Cal Crutchlow	10→1	+7.6
Takaaki Nakagami	24→13	+4.6
Karel Abraham	13→20	−9.5
Valentino Rossi	11→19	−9.7
Marc Marquez	6→18	−12.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+1.68%	−0.100	1	3	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.8 °C

Air

max 24.9 °C

74%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

5 km/h

Wind

gusts 19 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 06.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.303	—	18	328.3	Medium / Medium	1:43.800	+2.21%	5	Soft
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.345	+0.042	18	332.4	Medium / Soft	1:43.307	+1.73%	6	Hard
3	Andrea Iannone	01:40.386	+0.083	18	324.4	Medium / Soft	1:41.983	+0.42%	4	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:40.614	+0.311	20	325.5	Soft / Medium	1:43.222	+1.64%	7	Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:40.715	+0.412	18	326.2	Soft / Medium	1:42.985	+1.41%	6	Hard
6	Marc Marquez	01:40.781	+0.478	19	333.0	Soft / Soft	1:41.554	—	10	Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	01:40.825	+0.522	19	328.0	Medium / Soft	1:43.121	+1.54%	6	Medium
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.938	+0.635	17	329.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.019	+0.716	17	330.1	Soft / Medium	1:43.170	+1.59%	6	Hard
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.066	+0.763	15	331.5	Medium / Medium	1:43.888	+2.30%	5	Hard
11	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.094	+0.791	17	323.7	Medium / Medium	1:43.156	+1.58%	5	Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.163	+0.860	20	325.6	Medium / Medium	1:43.531	+1.95%	7	Soft
13	Maverick Viñales	01:41.224	+0.921	20	328.7	Soft / Soft	1:43.207	+1.63%	7	Soft
14	Bradley Smith	01:41.286	+0.983	18	325.6	Medium / Medium	1:43.946	+2.36%	5	Soft
15	Scott Redding	01:41.346	+1.043	15	322.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Pol Espargaro	01:41.355	+1.052	18	327.6	Medium / Medium	1:43.175	+1.60%	5	Soft
17	Tito Rabat	01:41.421	+1.118	22	329.2	Medium / Medium	1:42.411	+0.84%	13	Soft
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.449	+1.146	20	322.6	Soft / Soft	1:43.466	+1.88%	7	Soft
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.538	+1.235	19	320.8	Medium / Medium	1:43.462	+1.88%	10	Soft
20	Alvaro Bautista	01:41.624	+1.321	19	330.9	Soft / Medium	1:43.610	+2.03%	10	Soft
21	Alex Rins	01:41.802	+1.499	20	326.1	Soft / Soft	1:42.926	+1.35%	10	Medium
22	Xavier Simeon	01:42.192	+1.889	17	321.9	Soft / Medium	1:47.657	+6.01%	5	Soft
23	Thomas Luthi	01:42.698	+2.395	19	319.3	Soft / Soft	1:43.566	+1.98%	14	Soft
24	Karel Abraham	01:42.857	+2.554	17	323.5	Medium / Medium	1:45.963	+4.34%	5	Soft

FP2 · 06.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.395	—	16	325.0	Medium / Medium	1:40.655	—	5	Soft
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:39.799	+0.404	14	325.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Tito Rabat	01:40.346	+0.951	18	324.8	Medium / Medium	1:42.778	+2.11%	5	Medium
4	Andrea Iannone	01:40.455	+1.060	17	316.8	Soft / Medium	1:42.812	+2.14%	5	Hard
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.494	+1.099	14	319.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Maverick Viñales	01:40.510	+1.115	18	320.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.440	+0.78%	6	Medium
7	Valentino Rossi	01:40.577	+1.182	14	317.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Alex Rins	01:40.592	+1.197	14	318.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.766	+1.371	16	320.5	Medium / Medium	1:42.265	+1.60%	7	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.800	+1.405	13	314.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Scott Redding	01:40.839	+1.444	13	314.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Jack Miller	01:40.842	+1.447	14	316.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.863	+1.468	15	327.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Johann Zarco	01:40.974	+1.579	18	319.4	Medium / Soft	1:42.951	+2.28%	5	Medium
15	Bradley Smith	01:41.198	+1.803	17	318.0	Medium / Medium	1:43.189	+2.52%	5	Medium
16	Hafizh Syahrin	01:41.257	+1.862	14	315.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.334	+1.939	18	323.5	Soft / Medium	1:46.104	+5.41%	5	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.357	+1.962	17	314.4	Medium / Medium	1:42.590	+1.92%	4	Medium
19	Karel Abraham	01:41.784	+2.389	18	322.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.832	+2.437	19	313.8	Medium / Soft	1:42.646	+1.98%	10	Medium
21	Pol Espargaro	01:41.867	+2.472	15	320.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Thomas Luthi	01:41.898	+2.503	18	314.4	Medium / Medium	1:42.797	+2.13%	6	Medium
23	Xavier Simeon	01:42.242	+2.847	13	320.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
24	Andrea Dovizioso	01:42.973	+3.578	13	319.4	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 07.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:48.896	—	14	317.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	—			—
2	Johann Zarco	01:49.503	+0.607	21	311.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:51.797	+0.25%	16	Wet-Medium
3	Alvaro Bautista	01:49.828	+0.932	20	313.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:52.801	+1.15%	16	Wet-Medium
4	Karel Abraham	01:49.892	+0.996	15	311.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:54.735	+2.89%	7	Wet-Medium
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.948	+1.052	15	316.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:50.149	+1.253	13	314.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	1:51.514	—	5	Wet-Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	01:50.245	+1.349	15	309.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.230	+1.54%	5	Wet-Medium
8	Hafizh Syahrin	01:50.261	+1.365	18	308.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:52.015	+0.45%	5	Wet-Medium
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:50.396	+1.500	17	313.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.413	+1.70%	13	Wet-Medium
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:50.463	+1.567	16	311.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	1:51.850	+0.30%	5	Wet-Medium
11	Valentino Rossi	01:50.645	+1.749	19	309.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:54.128	+2.34%	7	Wet-Medium
12	Andrea Iannone	01:50.679	+1.783	17	307.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:58.087	+5.89%	5	Wet-Medium
13	Maverick Viñales	01:50.685	+1.789	17	311.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.812	+2.06%	13	Wet-Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:50.747	+1.851	14	312.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
15	Scott Redding	01:50.972	+2.076	12	306.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
16	Jorge Lorenzo	01:51.001	+2.105	18	315.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:54.368	+2.56%	14	Wet-Medium
17	Tito Rabat	01:51.051	+2.155	20	314.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.721	+1.98%	15	Wet-Medium
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:51.170	+2.274	19	307.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.784	+2.04%	12	Wet-Medium
19	Alex Rins	01:51.197	+2.301	17	309.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.858	+2.10%	10	Wet-Medium
20	Bradley Smith	01:51.296	+2.400	13	308.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.361	+1.66%	9	Wet-Medium
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:51.636	+2.740	20	306.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	1:55.004	+3.13%	14	Wet-Medium
22	Thomas Luthi	01:52.352	+3.456	17	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:54.344	+2.54%	10	Wet-Medium
23	Xavier Simeon	01:52.462	+3.566	18	310.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.664	+1.93%	9	Wet-Medium
24	Jack Miller	01:52.648	+3.752	6	304.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—

FP4 · 07.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:49.358	—	13	318.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:49.709	—	4	Wet-Medium
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:50.502	+1.144	13	312.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:52.632	+2.66%	5	Wet-Medium
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:50.577	+1.219	12	315.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:52.836	+2.85%	6	Wet-Medium
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:50.778	+1.420	13	318.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:51.194	+1.35%	5	Wet-Medium
5	Danilo Petrucci	01:50.974	+1.616	10	319.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:52.072	+2.15%	5	Wet-Medium
6	Scott Redding	01:50.997	+1.639	11	306.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	1:51.373	+1.52%	5	Wet-Medium
7	Andrea Iannone	01:51.034	+1.676	12	307.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Johann Zarco	01:51.089	+1.731	8	313.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:51.224	+1.866	12	312.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
10	Valentino Rossi	01:51.267	+1.909	10	313.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:51.280	+1.922	13	309.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:51.418	+2.060	14	311.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	1:53.223	+3.20%	7	Wet-Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:51.471	+2.113	14	306.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	1:53.274	+3.25%	6	Wet-Medium
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:51.500	+2.142	10	314.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
15	Tito Rabat	01:51.605	+2.247	14	312.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:52.688	+2.72%	10	Wet-Soft
16	Karel Abraham	01:51.709	+2.351	10	309.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
17	Maverick Viñales	01:51.722	+2.364	13	314.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.599	+3.55%	6	Wet-Medium
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:51.940	+2.582	11	306.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.318	+3.29%	5	Wet-Medium
19	Xavier Simeon	01:51.958	+2.600	11	308.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:52.046	+2.688	9	312.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:52.057	+2.699	14	305.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.738	+3.67%	6	Wet-Medium
22	Bradley Smith	01:52.072	+2.714	11	303.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	—			—
23	Pol Espargaro	01:52.534	+3.176	10	302.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
24	Thomas Luthi	01:53.165	+3.807	10	301.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

Q1 · 07.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.128	—	8	314.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:51.226	+0.66%	4	Wet-Medium
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.518	+0.390	6	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Karel Abraham	01:49.878	+0.750	8	311.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:50.063	+0.935	7	318.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
5	Scott Redding	01:50.175	+1.047	7	312.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:50.498	—	4	Wet-Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:50.324	+1.196	7	308.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
7	Xavier Simeon	01:50.364	+1.236	7	313.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:50.449	+1.321	8	318.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:50.606	+1.478	8	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:51.433	+0.85%	6	Wet-Medium
10	Thomas Luthi	01:50.833	+1.705	7	307.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:51.971	+1.33%	5	Wet-Medium
11	Bradley Smith	01:51.007	+1.879	8	310.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.113	+2.37%	5	Wet-Medium
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:51.012	+1.884	8	305.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
13	Hafizh Syahrin	01:51.142	+2.014	8	307.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:51.854	+1.23%	4	Wet-Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:51.387	+2.259	8	312.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:53.215	+2.46%	6	Wet-Medium

Q2 · 07.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:47.153	—	8	318.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:47.330	+0.177	7	309.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
3	Johann Zarco	01:47.365	+0.212	7	314.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Tito Rabat	01:47.681	+0.528	7	312.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
5	Alex Rins	01:47.743	+0.590	8	309.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:47.754	+0.601	7	314.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.845	+0.692	8	316.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:48.646	—	4	Wet-Medium
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.247	+1.094	6	312.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
9	Maverick Viñales	01:49.044	+1.891	8	314.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:50.930	+2.10%	5	Wet-Medium
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.304	+2.151	7	316.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
11	Valentino Rossi	01:49.326	+2.173	8	310.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:51.333	+2.47%	5	Wet-Medium
12	Andrea Iannone	01:49.975	+2.822	7	309.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—

Warm Up · 08.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:48.428	—	11	317.7	— / —	—			—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:48.998	+0.570	11	307.9	— / —	—			—
3	Scott Redding	01:49.043	+0.615	8	314.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:50.360	+0.57%	4	Wet-Medium
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:49.230	+0.802	11	316.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:49.732	—	9	Wet-Medium
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.343	+0.915	11	315.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:50.097	+0.33%	9	Wet-Medium
6	Alex Rins	01:49.510	+1.082	11	310.7	— / —	—			—
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.512	+1.084	11	314.4	— / —	—			—
8	Valentino Rossi	01:49.514	+1.086	11	317.6	— / —	—			—
9	Andrea Iannone	01:49.524	+1.096	8	311.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:49.719	+1.291	11	312.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:50.760	+0.94%	9	Wet-Medium
11	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.740	+1.312	10	314.3	Wet-Medium / missing	1:51.708	+1.80%	6	missing
12	Karel Abraham	01:49.762	+1.334	11	310.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
13	Hafizh Syahrin	01:49.836	+1.408	11	309.1	— / —	—			—
14	Pol Espargaro	01:49.842	+1.414	11	316.6	— / —	—			—
15	Alvaro Bautista	01:49.848	+1.420	10	311.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.896	+1.468	9	320.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
17	Jack Miller	01:49.918	+1.490	11	316.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:50.536	+0.73%	9	Wet-Medium
18	Johann Zarco	01:49.969	+1.541	11	316.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:50.899	+1.06%	6	Wet-Medium
19	Bradley Smith	01:50.029	+1.601	10	312.5	— / —	—			—
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:50.031	+1.603	11	311.8	— / —	—			—
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:50.418	+1.990	10	312.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
22	Xavier Simeon	01:50.454	+2.026	9	312.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
23	Thomas Luthi	01:50.544	+2.116	11	303.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:51.143	+1.29%	9	Wet-Medium
24	Tito Rabat	01:50.545	+2.117	11	316.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:51.544	+1.65%	9	Wet-Medium

Race · 08.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Cal Crutchlow	40:36.342	25	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.189	+0.70%	22	Medium
2	Johann Zarco	+0.251	20	24	Soft / Medium	1:41.264	+0.78%	22	Medium
3	Alex Rins	+2.501	16	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.212	+0.73%	22	Medium
4	Jack Miller	+4.390	13	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.280	+0.79%	22	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	+14.941	11	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.407	+0.92%	22	Medium
6	Andrea Dovizioso	+22.533	10	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.169	+1.68%	22	Medium
7	Tito Rabat	+23.026	9	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.184	+1.69%	22	Medium
8	Andrea Iannone	+23.921	8	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.319	+1.83%	22	Medium
9	Hafizh Syahrin	+24.311	7	24	Soft / Medium	1:41.890	+1.40%	22	Medium
10	Danilo Petrucci	+26.003	6	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.946	+1.46%	22	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	+31.022	5	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.969	+1.48%	22	Medium
12	Scott Redding	+31.891	4	24	Soft / Medium	1:42.304	+1.81%	22	Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+32.452	3	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.470	+1.98%	22	Medium
14	Franco Morbidelli	+42.061	2	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.746	+2.25%	22	Medium
15	Jorge Lorenzo	+42.274	1	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.980	+1.49%	22	Medium
16	Alvaro Bautista	+42.625	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:43.018	+2.52%	22	Medium
17	Thomas Luthi	+43.350	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.809	+2.32%	22	Medium
18	Marc Marquez	+43.860	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.482	—	20	Medium
19	Valentino Rossi	+52.082	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.957	+1.47%	21	Medium
20	Karel Abraham	+63.944	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:42.950	+2.46%	21	Medium
21	Xavier Simeon	+70.144	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:43.362	+2.87%	21	Medium
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	13	Medium / Medium	1:43.854	+3.36%	11	Medium
Retired	Bradley Smith		0	17	Medium / Medium	1:43.134	+2.64%	15	Medium
Out on lap 1	Daniel Pedrosa		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:40.158	—	+0.210	Medium	10
Maverick Viñales	1:41.078*	+0.920	+0.292	Medium	4
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.874*	+1.716	+0.359	Medium	4
Bradley Smith	1:42.080*	+1.922	+0.085	Medium	4
Pol Espargaro	1:42.391*	+2.233	+0.406	Medium	3
Thomas Luthi	1:42.418	+2.260	+0.237	Medium	5
Jorge Lorenzo	1:42.551*	+2.393	+1.158	Medium	3
Johann Zarco	1:42.687*	+2.529	+0.344	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:42.860*	+2.702	+0.512	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alvaro Bautista	56%	9
2	Aleix Espargaro	48%	1 ✓
3	Scott Redding	37%	5
4	Danilo Petrucci	17%	8
5	Andrea Dovizioso	17%	2 ✓
6	Jorge Lorenzo	5%	4
7	Hafizh Syahrin	8%	13
8	Bradley Smith	3%	11
9	Pol Espargaro	3%	6
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	14
11	Franco Morbidelli	2%	12
12	Karel Abraham	0%	3
13	Thomas Luthi	0%	10
14	Xavier Simeon	0%	7

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	43%	74%	93%	6
2	Cal Crutchlow	21%	53%	85%	10
3	Daniel Pedrosa	17%	49%	85%	2
4	Tito Rabat	3%	34%	66%	4
5	Andrea Iannone	3%	29%	60%	12
6	Maverick Viñales	6%	21%	60%	9
7	Valentino Rossi	1%	11%	45%	11
8	Alex Rins	3%	14%	34%	5
9	Johann Zarco	1%	6%	26%	3
10	Jack Miller	1%	5%	17%	1
11	Aleix Espargaro	0%	3%	18%	7
12	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	1%	13%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jack Miller	1	25%	49%	62%	71%	28%	4
Daniel Pedrosa	2	24%	55%	72%	87%	10%	—
Johann Zarco	3	17%	49%	69%	87%	9%	2
Tito Rabat	4	11%	39%	61%	84%	12%	7
Alex Rins	5	7%	28%	48%	73%	21%	3
Marc Marquez	6	5%	23%	45%	77%	15%	18
Aleix Espargaro	7	3%	16%	34%	66%	23%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	8	3%	14%	32%	74%	12%	6
Maverick Viñales	9	1%	9%	24%	71%	10%	5
Cal Crutchlow	10	1%	5%	14%	52%	29%	1
Valentino Rossi	11	1%	5%	14%	58%	9%	19
Andrea Iannone	12	0%	3%	8%	42%	28%	8
Karel Abraham	13	0%	2%	5%	30%	32%	20
Jorge Lorenzo	14	0%	2%	5%	35%	10%	15
Scott Redding	15	0%	1%	4%	28%	14%	12
Pol Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	19%	22%	11
Xavier Simeon	17	0%	0%	2%	14%	16%	21
Danilo Petrucci	18	0%	0%	1%	9%	24%	10
Alvaro Bautista	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	21%	16
Thomas Luthi	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	16%	17
Bradley Smith	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	12%	—
Franco Morbidelli	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	14
Hafizh Syahrin	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	9
Takaaki Nakagami	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	13

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,820 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Pedro Acosta +0.38%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.37%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.02%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.42%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.79%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Maverick Viñales +0.05%	Jorge Martin +0.44%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.10%	Luca Marini +0.13%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.25%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Pol Espargaro +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Aleix Espargaro +0.00%	Alex Rins +0.32%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%
S4	Brad Binder	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Franco Morbidelli +0.27%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Cal Crutchlow +0.16%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Cal Crutchlow +0.22%	Valentino Rossi +0.58%
S2	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.39%	Cal Crutchlow +0.93%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

10/100

Position index

60%

Pole wins

60%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 20% of the time (between 4% and 62%; 5 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Andrea Dovizioso	25	—
2	Marc Marquez	20	−5
3	Valentino Rossi	16	−9
4	Cal Crutchlow	13	−12
5	Danilo Petrucci	11	−14
6	Maverick Viñales	10	−15

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

0/25

Laps led by the winner

2.915 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Johann Zarco, from P14 to P5.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Valentino Rossi (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Cal CrutchlowHonda
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2016Marc MarquezHonda
2015Valentino RossiYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	2/20	10%
2023	0/17	0%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/22	23%
2018	3/24	13%
2017	7/23	30%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet