MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 16 of 18 Aftermath

Australian Grand Prix 2017

Phillip Island Australia

4.445 m · 27 laps · since 1989
20.10 – 22.10.2017
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team40:49.77225
2Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+1.79920
3Maverick ViñalesYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+1.82616
4Johann ZarcoYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+1.84213
5Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+3.84511
6Andrea IannoneSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+3.87110
7Jack MillerHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+5.6199
8Alex RinsSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+12.2088
9Pol EspargaroKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+16.2517
10Bradley SmithKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+16.2626
11Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Racing+21.6525
12Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+21.6684
13Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+21.6923
14Karel AbrahamDucatiPull&Bear Aspar Team+26.1102
15Jorge LorenzoDucatiDucati Team+26.1681
16Tito RabatHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+26.2520
17Alvaro BautistaDucatiPull&Bear Aspar Team+36.3770
18Loris BazDucatiReale Avintia Racing+39.6540
19Sam LowesApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+40.4000
20Hector BarberaDucatiReale Avintia Racing+45.9010
21Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Racing+48.7680
22Broc ParkesYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+57.7110
DNFAleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing Team GresiniRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 27% ✓Marc Marquez · 27% · from P10.88 / 0.883.0 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

97
Overtakes
5
Lead changes
4 leaders
7/27
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
1.799 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Scott Redding, from P20 to P11.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Daniel Pedrosa (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race16:02:03Jump startJump start
Race16:11:21Aleix EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
14.2 °C
Air
max 14.5 °C
73%
Humidity
0.3 mm
Rain
26 km/h
Wind
gusts 57 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 20.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:29.602—22328.4
2Johann Zarco01:29.695+0.09322332.2
3Jack Miller01:29.724+0.12221335.2
4Andrea Dovizioso01:29.753+0.15121335.6
5Maverick Viñales01:29.781+0.17921330.7
6Andrea Iannone01:29.857+0.25520333.8
7Pol Espargaro01:29.878+0.27618333.1
8Jorge Lorenzo01:30.059+0.45720328.0
9Bradley Smith01:30.279+0.67718332.9
10Cal Crutchlow01:30.384+0.78221332.1
11Daniel Pedrosa01:30.400+0.79822327.1
12Aleix Espargaro01:30.494+0.89219325.3
13Valentino Rossi01:30.553+0.95121331.0
14Karel Abraham01:30.879+1.27718335.4
15Scott Redding01:31.001+1.39918320.5
16Danilo Petrucci01:31.174+1.57221330.8
17Alex Rins01:31.329+1.72723331.6
18Hector Barbera01:31.457+1.85512333.0
19Tito Rabat01:31.599+1.99724323.4
20Loris Baz01:31.614+2.01222325.7
21Alvaro Bautista01:31.994+2.39219329.7
22Sam Lowes01:32.426+2.82416321.5
23Broc Parkes01:33.054+3.45219313.2
FP2 · 20.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Aleix Espargaro01:29.225—20333.2
2Marc Marquez01:29.230+0.00521333.6
3Andrea Dovizioso01:29.322+0.09719338.0
4Cal Crutchlow01:29.329+0.10421333.8
5Maverick Viñales01:29.423+0.19820333.9
6Jack Miller01:29.466+0.24123333.6
7Andrea Iannone01:29.604+0.37920336.5
8Johann Zarco01:29.667+0.44217333.8
9Daniel Pedrosa01:29.702+0.47722327.1
10Pol Espargaro01:29.760+0.53522336.5
11Jorge Lorenzo01:29.820+0.59519330.0
12Valentino Rossi01:29.977+0.75223333.9
13Karel Abraham01:29.987+0.76220338.3
14Bradley Smith01:30.046+0.82121336.9
15Alex Rins01:30.085+0.86023333.7
16Scott Redding01:30.140+0.91520327.7
17Danilo Petrucci01:30.269+1.04421339.0
18Loris Baz01:30.274+1.04916332.5
19Tito Rabat01:30.546+1.32124332.1
20Sam Lowes01:30.682+1.45715326.6
21Hector Barbera01:30.777+1.55217334.3
22Alvaro Bautista01:31.688+2.46315334.4
23Broc Parkes01:32.152+2.92719324.7
FP3 · 21.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:38.522—12314.8
2Johann Zarco01:38.983+0.46117319.6
3Pol Espargaro01:39.056+0.53416317.2
4Karel Abraham01:39.212+0.69017314.2
5Danilo Petrucci01:39.356+0.83411326.7
6Daniel Pedrosa01:39.556+1.03415296.2
7Cal Crutchlow01:39.704+1.18212307.8
8Andrea Dovizioso01:39.760+1.23813312.3
9Hector Barbera01:39.802+1.28014311.8
10Jack Miller01:39.889+1.36711298.9
11Jorge Lorenzo01:39.956+1.43413311.8
12Valentino Rossi01:40.009+1.48713316.5
13Maverick Viñales01:40.122+1.60012316.1
14Bradley Smith01:40.162+1.6408308.5
15Sam Lowes01:40.204+1.68211305.8
16Alvaro Bautista01:40.801+2.27924316.5
17Loris Baz01:40.879+2.35717312.6
18Scott Redding01:41.267+2.74515293.6
19Alex Rins01:41.420+2.89814313.4
20Broc Parkes01:41.818+3.29617302.3
21Tito Rabat01:41.822+3.30019301.7
22Andrea Iannone01:41.886+3.36410308.5
23Aleix Espargaro01:43.415+4.8937307.3
FP4 · 21.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:29.541—17339.0
2Johann Zarco01:29.739+0.19817335.2
3Andrea Iannone01:29.808+0.26714338.2
4Aleix Espargaro01:30.080+0.53915333.9
5Pol Espargaro01:30.159+0.61815337.8
6Andrea Dovizioso01:30.189+0.64814338.7
7Cal Crutchlow01:30.244+0.70316333.3
8Maverick Viñales01:30.248+0.70717333.9
9Loris Baz01:30.386+0.84514332.2
10Jack Miller01:30.404+0.86314334.9
11Daniel Pedrosa01:30.542+1.00114326.1
12Alex Rins01:30.694+1.1539334.8
13Bradley Smith01:30.701+1.16011335.5
14Hector Barbera01:30.810+1.26913336.3
15Valentino Rossi01:30.929+1.38813332.8
16Danilo Petrucci01:30.965+1.42412336.4
17Jorge Lorenzo01:31.013+1.47216337.2
18Tito Rabat01:31.153+1.61217328.1
19Scott Redding01:31.345+1.80411328.4
20Alvaro Bautista01:31.346+1.80516337.8
21Sam Lowes01:31.796+2.25510327.3
22Karel Abraham01:31.980+2.43912336.7
23Broc Parkes01:32.264+2.72315328.3
Q1 · 21.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Valentino Rossi01:29.346—8334.5
2Bradley Smith01:29.705+0.3597334.1
3Alex Rins01:29.824+0.4788335.0
4Tito Rabat01:29.847+0.5018333.6
5Karel Abraham01:29.961+0.6158341.9
6Jorge Lorenzo01:30.085+0.7397333.2
7Loris Baz01:30.224+0.8787333.9
8Danilo Petrucci01:30.471+1.1257338.0
9Hector Barbera01:30.543+1.1978342.0
10Scott Redding01:30.806+1.4608329.6
11Broc Parkes01:30.889+1.5437329.5
12Alvaro Bautista01:30.900+1.5548340.6
13Sam Lowes01:31.158+1.8128328.3
Q2 · 21.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:28.386—8335.5
2Maverick Viñales01:28.719+0.3339337.0
3Johann Zarco01:28.744+0.3588336.9
4Andrea Iannone01:28.937+0.5518337.8
5Jack Miller01:28.964+0.5788336.2
6Pol Espargaro01:29.030+0.6448340.4
7Valentino Rossi01:29.203+0.8178336.1
8Aleix Espargaro01:29.271+0.8859335.9
9Bradley Smith01:29.321+0.9358338.0
10Cal Crutchlow01:29.429+1.0435336.3
11Andrea Dovizioso01:29.496+1.1109336.8
12Daniel Pedrosa01:29.546+1.1609327.9
Warm Up · 22.10
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:39.085—12315.9
2Maverick Viñales01:39.322+0.23712320.4
3Daniel Pedrosa01:39.512+0.42711295.6
4Jack Miller01:39.975+0.89010306.3
5Pol Espargaro01:40.001+0.91612316.8
6Andrea Dovizioso01:40.089+1.00412318.4
7Danilo Petrucci01:40.182+1.09712325.4
8Sam Lowes01:40.188+1.10310305.3
9Hector Barbera01:40.193+1.10812315.7
10Valentino Rossi01:40.256+1.17112313.3
11Karel Abraham01:40.301+1.21611307.6
12Andrea Iannone01:40.545+1.46010312.5
13Cal Crutchlow01:40.593+1.5089313.9
14Loris Baz01:40.854+1.7699312.0
15Jorge Lorenzo01:40.901+1.81610313.3
16Aleix Espargaro01:40.934+1.84911315.7
17Alvaro Bautista01:41.014+1.92912308.0
18Johann Zarco01:41.041+1.95612316.0
19Bradley Smith01:41.131+2.04612311.6
20Scott Redding01:41.161+2.0769303.4
21Alex Rins01:41.359+2.27410314.3
22Broc Parkes01:42.491+3.40612301.6
23Tito Rabat01:42.524+3.4398295.0
Race · 22.10
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Marc Marquez40:49.7722527
2Valentino Rossi+1.7992027
3Maverick Viñales+1.8261627
4Johann Zarco+1.8421327
5Cal Crutchlow+3.8451127
6Andrea Iannone+3.8711027
7Jack Miller+5.619927
8Alex Rins+12.208827
9Pol Espargaro+16.251727
10Bradley Smith+16.262627
11Scott Redding+21.652527
12Daniel Pedrosa+21.668427
13Andrea Dovizioso+21.692327
14Karel Abraham+26.110227
15Jorge Lorenzo+26.168127
16Tito Rabat+26.252027
17Alvaro Bautista+36.377027
18Loris Baz+39.654027
19Sam Lowes+40.400027
20Hector Barbera+45.901027
21Danilo Petrucci+48.768027
22Broc Parkes+57.711027
RetiredAleix Espargaro07

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez127%58%73%82%15%1
Maverick Viñales221%53%72%86%11%3
Johann Zarco315%46%68%87%10%4
Andrea Iannone410%31%49%67%29%6
Jack Miller57%24%41%66%30%7
Pol Espargaro65%22%43%73%21%9
Valentino Rossi75%21%42%80%9%2
Aleix Espargaro83%13%28%67%22%—
Bradley Smith92%10%24%69%13%10
Cal Crutchlow101%6%15%50%30%5
Andrea Dovizioso111%5%14%58%12%13
Daniel Pedrosa121%3%10%50%11%12
Alex Rins131%3%8%41%13%8
Tito Rabat140%2%5%34%14%16
Karel Abraham150%1%3%21%32%14
Jorge Lorenzo160%1%3%23%9%15
Loris Baz170%1%2%15%20%18
Danilo Petrucci180%0%1%9%24%21
Hector Barbera190%0%1%8%15%20
Scott Redding200%0%1%6%14%11
Broc Parkes210%0%0%5%17%22
Alvaro Bautista220%0%0%2%21%17
Sam Lowes230%0%0%2%34%19

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · MartinS3 · ViñalesS4 · Martin

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,454 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

5/100
Position index
0%
Pole wins
44%
Front row on the podium
0.71
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2016 edition

75
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
18/27
Laps led by the winner
Cal Crutchlow
4.218 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P15 to P2.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Yonny Hernandez (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2025Raul FernandezAprilia
  • 2024Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2023Johann ZarcoDucati
  • 2022Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Maverick ViñalesYamaha
  • 2017Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2016Cal CrutchlowHonda

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20254/2218%
20242/2110%
20232/2110%
20224/2417%
20195/2124%
20185/2322%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet