MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 18 of 18 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2016

Circuit Ricardo Tormo Spain

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999
11.11 – 13.11.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP45:54.22825
2Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+1.18520
3Andrea IannoneDucatiDucati Team+6.60316
4Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+7.66813
5Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+10.61011
6Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+18.37810
7Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+18.4179
8Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+18.6788
9Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+25.9937
10Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+35.0656
11Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+36.4255
12Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+42.4154
13Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+49.8233
14Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+52.0352
15Jack MillerHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+55.6251
16Eugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+58.2540
17Tito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+58.5550
18Loris BazDucatiAvintia Racing+66.1640
DNFCal CrutchlowHondaLCR HondaRetired0
DNFDaniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda TeamRetired0
DNFMika KallioKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFYonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGPRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Jorge Lorenzo · 30% ✓Jorge Lorenzo · 30% · from P10.91 / 0.911.6 / 1.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

32
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
30/30
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
1.185 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P18 to P10.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Pol Espargaro (27 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:01:24Jump startJump start
Race14:08:01Yonny HernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:10:20Daniel PedrosaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:27:02Cal CrutchlowCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:30:32Mika KallioRetiredEntered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

RiderGrid→Pos.Beats the grid
Alvaro Bautista18→10+3.8
Andrea Iannone7→3+3.7
Jorge Lorenzo1→1+1.8
Scott Redding14→14−2.8
Jack Miller15→15−3.2
Loris Baz16→18−5.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
— °C
Air
max — °C
—
Humidity
Dry
Rain
— km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 11.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:31.045—21318.4
2Valentino Rossi01:31.432+0.38718314.6
3Marc Marquez01:31.442+0.39720314.1
4Andrea Dovizioso01:31.532+0.48720320.0
5Pol Espargaro01:31.785+0.74022315.7
6Maverick Viñales01:31.926+0.88121319.4
7Aleix Espargaro01:31.942+0.89720315.0
8Jack Miller01:32.155+1.11019314.1
9Scott Redding01:32.212+1.16719314.7
10Andrea Iannone01:32.265+1.22021322.3
11Hector Barbera01:32.285+1.24025318.5
12Daniel Pedrosa01:32.453+1.40816317.9
13Danilo Petrucci01:32.479+1.43419315.7
14Cal Crutchlow01:32.576+1.53119315.2
15Tito Rabat01:32.637+1.59223311.9
16Stefan Bradl01:32.845+1.80021315.7
17Alvaro Bautista01:32.924+1.87921316.8
18Bradley Smith01:33.056+2.01119314.7
19Yonny Hernandez01:33.161+2.11618317.5
20Eugene Laverty01:33.349+2.30419317.2
21Loris Baz01:33.506+2.46121311.4
22Mika Kallio01:33.985+2.94019313.3
FP2 · 11.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:30.463—17316.5
2Marc Marquez01:30.710+0.24721314.4
3Maverick Viñales01:30.775+0.31222321.5
4Pol Espargaro01:31.000+0.53721316.2
5Andrea Dovizioso01:31.066+0.60318320.9
6Aleix Espargaro01:31.186+0.72319317.4
7Andrea Iannone01:31.189+0.72619322.1
8Valentino Rossi01:31.257+0.79423314.0
9Danilo Petrucci01:31.295+0.83219315.4
10Daniel Pedrosa01:31.358+0.89520318.4
11Cal Crutchlow01:31.462+0.99921314.4
12Scott Redding01:31.733+1.27019312.9
13Hector Barbera01:31.742+1.27918315.3
14Jack Miller01:31.754+1.29121314.4
15Eugene Laverty01:31.776+1.31319315.3
16Stefan Bradl01:32.014+1.55122314.7
17Alvaro Bautista01:32.206+1.74321314.6
18Yonny Hernandez01:32.218+1.75518312.9
19Bradley Smith01:32.280+1.81720315.0
20Loris Baz01:32.476+2.01320309.9
21Tito Rabat01:32.646+2.18322312.1
22Mika Kallio01:33.574+3.11119312.1
FP3 · 12.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:30.258—21317.2
2Maverick Viñales01:30.361+0.10323317.8
3Andrea Dovizioso01:30.643+0.38520319.9
4Daniel Pedrosa01:30.711+0.45322319.4
5Jorge Lorenzo01:30.743+0.48522315.4
6Pol Espargaro01:30.745+0.48720315.3
7Aleix Espargaro01:30.769+0.51121317.2
8Andrea Iannone01:30.834+0.57620322.0
9Valentino Rossi01:30.852+0.59422317.5
10Bradley Smith01:31.002+0.74421315.4
11Cal Crutchlow01:31.023+0.76521317.8
12Scott Redding01:31.147+0.88920316.6
13Hector Barbera01:31.308+1.05019318.5
14Stefan Bradl01:31.410+1.15222315.2
15Jack Miller01:31.550+1.29220315.4
16Danilo Petrucci01:31.589+1.33121316.6
17Alvaro Bautista01:31.894+1.63622316.3
18Tito Rabat01:31.976+1.71824312.4
19Yonny Hernandez01:31.991+1.73319314.9
20Eugene Laverty01:32.240+1.98219315.9
21Loris Baz01:32.464+2.20620310.3
22Mika Kallio01:32.772+2.51419314.4
FP4 · 12.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:30.906—13315.9
2Jorge Lorenzo01:30.961+0.05517314.6
3Maverick Viñales01:30.996+0.09017316.0
4Andrea Iannone01:31.296+0.39013319.1
5Valentino Rossi01:31.308+0.40216315.6
6Cal Crutchlow01:31.317+0.41115314.6
7Aleix Espargaro01:31.451+0.54517315.3
8Pol Espargaro01:31.509+0.60317312.0
9Andrea Dovizioso01:31.658+0.75214319.1
10Daniel Pedrosa01:31.786+0.88015317.2
11Bradley Smith01:31.889+0.98312314.1
12Alvaro Bautista01:32.133+1.22716312.9
13Eugene Laverty01:32.190+1.28413316.9
14Scott Redding01:32.206+1.30012315.7
15Danilo Petrucci01:32.283+1.37710314.1
16Hector Barbera01:32.357+1.45117312.1
17Stefan Bradl01:32.395+1.48917312.0
18Tito Rabat01:32.835+1.92917315.6
19Loris Baz01:32.951+2.04515309.5
20Jack Miller01:32.959+2.05312314.3
21Yonny Hernandez01:33.154+2.24810311.4
22Mika Kallio01:33.597+2.69114310.7
Q1 · 12.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Cal Crutchlow01:30.544—7314.3
2Danilo Petrucci01:30.815+0.2718312.3
3Hector Barbera01:30.894+0.3509314.4
4Scott Redding01:31.406+0.8628315.9
5Jack Miller01:31.686+1.1429313.9
6Loris Baz01:31.749+1.2057311.1
7Stefan Bradl01:31.813+1.2698313.4
8Alvaro Bautista01:31.847+1.3036317.6
9Eugene Laverty01:31.956+1.4126314.9
10Mika Kallio01:32.092+1.5488311.0
11Tito Rabat01:32.181+1.6379311.3
12Yonny Hernandez01:32.240+1.6969310.4
Q2 · 12.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:29.401—9316.0
2Marc Marquez01:29.741+0.3408315.4
3Valentino Rossi01:30.128+0.7279314.7
4Maverick Viñales01:30.276+0.8758316.8
5Andrea Dovizioso01:30.338+0.9379321.2
6Pol Espargaro01:30.392+0.9918314.3
7Andrea Iannone01:30.420+1.0199318.7
8Daniel Pedrosa01:30.574+1.1739317.9
9Aleix Espargaro01:30.885+1.4845313.3
10Bradley Smith01:30.949+1.5489317.4
11Cal Crutchlow01:31.030+1.6296313.4
12Danilo Petrucci01:31.203+1.8024311.7
Warm Up · 13.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:31.095—12313.6
2Maverick Viñales01:31.216+0.12113316.9
3Andrea Dovizioso01:31.270+0.17513319.3
4Pol Espargaro01:31.281+0.18613314.0
5Andrea Iannone01:31.334+0.23912321.5
6Valentino Rossi01:31.371+0.27611315.6
7Jorge Lorenzo01:31.435+0.34012314.9
8Aleix Espargaro01:31.591+0.49611315.3
9Bradley Smith01:31.614+0.51913314.9
10Cal Crutchlow01:31.693+0.59812313.1
11Daniel Pedrosa01:31.997+0.90213319.7
12Scott Redding01:32.169+1.07411314.7
13Hector Barbera01:32.248+1.15313317.1
14Danilo Petrucci01:32.382+1.28713313.4
15Jack Miller01:32.458+1.36313314.4
16Alvaro Bautista01:32.491+1.39613315.2
17Eugene Laverty01:32.575+1.48013316.0
18Stefan Bradl01:32.660+1.5658311.7
19Loris Baz01:32.683+1.58813308.8
20Tito Rabat01:32.770+1.67512311.4
21Yonny Hernandez01:32.930+1.83513311.4
22Mika Kallio01:33.749+2.65413309.6
Race · 13.11
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Jorge Lorenzo45:54.2282530
2Marc Marquez+1.1852030
3Andrea Iannone+6.6031630
4Valentino Rossi+7.6681330
5Maverick Viñales+10.6101130
6Pol Espargaro+18.3781030
7Andrea Dovizioso+18.417930
8Aleix Espargaro+18.678830
9Bradley Smith+25.993730
10Alvaro Bautista+35.065630
11Hector Barbera+36.425530
12Danilo Petrucci+42.415430
13Stefan Bradl+49.823330
14Scott Redding+52.035230
15Jack Miller+55.625130
16Eugene Laverty+58.254030
17Tito Rabat+58.555030
18Loris Baz+66.164030
RetiredCal Crutchlow016
RetiredDaniel Pedrosa06
RetiredMika Kallio019
RetiredYonny Hernandez04

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Lorenzo130%62%79%90%8%1
Marc Marquez221%52%70%84%15%2
Valentino Rossi315%47%68%87%9%4
Maverick Viñales411%38%59%84%10%5
Andrea Dovizioso57%28%51%81%13%7
Pol Espargaro65%20%39%72%19%6
Andrea Iannone73%14%30%62%29%3
Daniel Pedrosa83%13%32%76%9%—
Aleix Espargaro92%8%20%63%20%8
Bradley Smith102%7%17%64%12%9
Cal Crutchlow111%4%10%46%28%—
Danilo Petrucci121%3%8%41%23%12
Hector Barbera130%2%6%40%15%11
Scott Redding140%2%4%34%14%14
Jack Miller150%1%3%19%34%15
Loris Baz160%1%2%18%23%18
Stefan Bradl170%0%1%14%21%13
Alvaro Bautista180%0%1%10%19%10
Eugene Laverty190%0%1%7%13%16
Mika Kallio200%0%0%4%32%—
Tito Rabat210%0%0%4%14%17
Yonny Hernandez220%0%0%2%28%—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · MartinS2 · AcostaS3 · AcostaS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100
Position index
43%
Pole wins
71%
Front row on the podium
0.83
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

56
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
30/30
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
0.263 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P26 to P4.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (30 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
  • 2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20257/2429%
20237/2133%
20227/2429%
20212/2010%
20203/2114%
20197/2232%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet