Round 17 of 18 Aftermath

Malaysian Grand Prix 2016

Petronas Sepang International Circuit Malaysia

5.543 m · 20 laps · since 1999

28.10 – 30.10.2016

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	42:27.333	25
2	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+3.115	20
3	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+11.924	16
4	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+19.916	13
5	Loris Baz	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+21.353	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+22.932	10
7	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+25.829	9
8	Jack Miller	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	+32.746	8
9	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+33.704	7
10	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+34.280	6
11	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+36.480	5
12	Eugene Laverty	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+36.638	4
13	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+36.897	3
14	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+45.609	2
15	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+49.779	1
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+52.665	0
17	Stefan Bradl	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+52.784	0
18	Tito Rabat	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	+54.891	0
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Andrea Dovizioso · 30% ✓	Andrea Dovizioso · 30% · from P1	0.77 / 0.77	2.9 / 2.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

5/19

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

3.115 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hector Barbera, from P12 to P4.

Longest battle: Andrea Iannone vs Valentino Rossi (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	15:22:04		Jump start	Jump start
Race	15:42:25	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:46:30	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:47:30	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:49:31	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Valentino Rossi (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	14	10	+4
Andrea Iannone	6	2	+4
Yonny Hernandez	20	17	+3
Alvaro Bautista	9	14	−5
Jorge Lorenzo	3	6	−3
Andrea Dovizioso	1	3	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Hector Barbera	12→4	+5.9
Loris Baz	10→5	+3.6
Jack Miller	14→8	+3.2
Stefan Bradl	16→17	−4.5
Marc Marquez	4→11	−6.2
Aleix Espargaro	7→13	−6.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

— °C

Air

max — °C

—

Humidity

19.2 mm

Rain

— km/h

Wind

gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 28.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	02:01.210	—	16	321.4
2	Maverick Viñales	02:01.478	+0.268	16	322.0
3	Scott Redding	02:01.507	+0.297	17	315.8
4	Andrea Iannone	02:01.521	+0.311	17	321.4
5	Valentino Rossi	02:01.611	+0.401	18	317.5
6	Hector Barbera	02:01.667	+0.457	14	317.6
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.774	+0.564	16	317.6
8	Yonny Hernandez	02:01.815	+0.605	17	319.3
9	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.011	+0.801	17	315.4
10	Jorge Lorenzo	02:02.013	+0.803	17	318.6
11	Danilo Petrucci	02:02.036	+0.826	18	317.6
12	Stefan Bradl	02:02.164	+0.954	16	310.8
13	Cal Crutchlow	02:02.334	+1.124	17	314.1
14	Bradley Smith	02:02.484	+1.274	17	320.0
15	Andrea Dovizioso	02:02.561	+1.351	15	315.5
16	Jack Miller	02:02.600	+1.390	13	310.6
17	Pol Espargaro	02:02.732	+1.522	16	315.6
18	Eugene Laverty	02:03.013	+1.803	16	318.3
19	Tito Rabat	02:03.108	+1.898	20	312.0
20	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:03.901	+2.691	18	318.3
21	Loris Baz	02:04.623	+3.413	15	310.0

FP2 · 28.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jack Miller	02:08.872	—	10	290.5
2	Cal Crutchlow	02:09.271	+0.399	8	298.5
3	Hector Barbera	02:09.414	+0.542	15	302.0
4	Bradley Smith	02:09.440	+0.568	8	299.2
5	Loris Baz	02:09.698	+0.826	17	301.0
6	Scott Redding	02:10.175	+1.303	8	295.9
7	Andrea Dovizioso	02:10.208	+1.336	12	297.3
8	Stefan Bradl	02:10.283	+1.411	14	293.3
9	Tito Rabat	02:11.297	+2.425	18	291.9
10	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:11.426	+2.554	12	295.0
11	Alvaro Bautista	02:12.179	+3.307	18	299.9
12	Eugene Laverty	02:12.803	+3.931	9	263.6
13	Valentino Rossi	02:13.416	+4.544	15	286.7
14	Yonny Hernandez	02:13.586	+4.714	10	294.6
15	Pol Espargaro	02:14.438	+5.566	10	290.7
16	Jorge Lorenzo	02:14.863	+5.991	10	297.4
17	Maverick Viñales	02:15.505	+6.633	10	292.2
18	Danilo Petrucci	02:16.269	+7.397	6	285.9
19	Aleix Espargaro	02:16.679	+7.807	10	288.9
Retired	Andrea Iannone		—	0	0.0
Retired	Marc Marquez		—	0	0.0

FP3 · 29.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Maverick Viñales	01:59.947	—	19	323.7
2	Marc Marquez	02:00.032	+0.085	18	320.8
3	Jorge Lorenzo	02:00.043	+0.096	16	321.2
4	Valentino Rossi	02:00.107	+0.160	18	322.3
5	Hector Barbera	02:00.384	+0.437	15	317.5
6	Andrea Iannone	02:00.395	+0.448	17	324.6
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.483	+0.536	17	320.3
8	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.723	+0.776	16	319.6
9	Pol Espargaro	02:01.072	+1.125	15	313.0
10	Alvaro Bautista	02:01.078	+1.131	18	320.7
11	Scott Redding	02:01.115	+1.168	15	321.7
12	Danilo Petrucci	02:01.167	+1.220	15	320.7
13	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.213	+1.266	16	319.1
14	Bradley Smith	02:01.255	+1.308	17	321.0
15	Eugene Laverty	02:01.319	+1.372	16	320.3
16	Stefan Bradl	02:01.352	+1.405	17	318.3
17	Jack Miller	02:01.716	+1.769	15	313.8
18	Yonny Hernandez	02:02.197	+2.250	12	317.9
19	Tito Rabat	02:02.237	+2.290	18	317.2
20	Loris Baz	02:02.729	+2.782	15	310.3
21	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:02.830	+2.883	18	315.5

FP4 · 29.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	02:11.713	—	12	298.2
2	Cal Crutchlow	02:11.792	+0.079	8	297.7
3	Maverick Viñales	02:11.933	+0.220	12	308.6
4	Jorge Lorenzo	02:12.049	+0.336	12	298.4
5	Andrea Dovizioso	02:12.223	+0.510	11	287.6
6	Jack Miller	02:12.424	+0.711	12	297.6
7	Loris Baz	02:12.523	+0.810	10	299.2
8	Valentino Rossi	02:12.602	+0.889	12	292.6
9	Alvaro Bautista	02:12.912	+1.199	12	297.3
10	Aleix Espargaro	02:12.966	+1.253	11	298.5
11	Hector Barbera	02:13.114	+1.401	12	292.5
12	Andrea Iannone	02:13.147	+1.434	11	290.6
13	Bradley Smith	02:13.459	+1.746	12	304.3
14	Pol Espargaro	02:13.465	+1.752	12	290.7
15	Stefan Bradl	02:13.492	+1.779	12	292.9
16	Danilo Petrucci	02:13.978	+2.265	10	286.8
17	Scott Redding	02:15.019	+3.306	10	299.2
18	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:15.071	+3.358	12	291.4
19	Tito Rabat	02:15.731	+4.018	12	290.7
20	Eugene Laverty	02:16.036	+4.323	5	264.6
21	Yonny Hernandez	02:20.456	+8.743	4	266.6

Q1 · 29.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Cal Crutchlow	02:11.591	—	7	302.5
2	Loris Baz	02:12.884	+1.293	6	288.7
3	Bradley Smith	02:12.898	+1.307	7	302.5
4	Jack Miller	02:12.907	+1.316	7	302.2
5	Danilo Petrucci	02:13.776	+2.185	6	297.3
6	Stefan Bradl	02:13.850	+2.259	5	292.2
7	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:14.179	+2.588	7	291.4
8	Scott Redding	02:14.433	+2.842	6	294.5
9	Eugene Laverty	02:14.769	+3.178	5	282.4
10	Yonny Hernandez	02:14.786	+3.195	7	291.8
11	Tito Rabat	02:15.894	+4.303	7	290.0

Q2 · 29.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Dovizioso	02:11.485	—	6	295.4
2	Valentino Rossi	02:11.731	+0.246	7	296.5
3	Jorge Lorenzo	02:11.787	+0.302	7	303.2
4	Marc Marquez	02:11.874	+0.389	7	302.7
5	Cal Crutchlow	02:12.558	+1.073	7	304.3
6	Andrea Iannone	02:12.598	+1.113	7	282.4
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:12.869	+1.384	5	303.4
8	Maverick Viñales	02:12.981	+1.496	7	295.5
9	Alvaro Bautista	02:13.325	+1.840	7	294.1
10	Loris Baz	02:13.452	+1.967	6	294.9
11	Pol Espargaro	02:13.707	+2.222	7	284.7
12	Hector Barbera	02:13.973	+2.488	5	290.5

Warm Up · 30.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Maverick Viñales	02:01.146	—	10	321.7
2	Andrea Iannone	02:01.353	+0.207	9	321.8
3	Marc Marquez	02:01.591	+0.445	10	316.3
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.650	+0.504	10	320.4
5	Jorge Lorenzo	02:01.701	+0.555	10	318.7
6	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.790	+0.644	10	317.3
7	Danilo Petrucci	02:02.165	+1.019	10	316.5
8	Pol Espargaro	02:02.220	+1.074	10	316.4
9	Bradley Smith	02:02.436	+1.290	10	318.6
10	Stefan Bradl	02:02.542	+1.396	10	315.6
11	Alvaro Bautista	02:02.576	+1.430	10	318.7
12	Scott Redding	02:02.694	+1.548	8	318.6
13	Yonny Hernandez	02:02.876	+1.730	10	318.4
14	Jack Miller	02:02.932	+1.786	9	316.9
15	Eugene Laverty	02:03.177	+2.031	10	316.0
16	Valentino Rossi	02:03.189	+2.043	8	318.9
17	Aleix Espargaro	02:03.402	+2.256	10	320.3
18	Hector Barbera	02:03.439	+2.293	10	312.8
19	Hiroshi Aoyama	02:03.633	+2.487	10	314.5
20	Tito Rabat	02:04.291	+3.145	10	309.7
21	Loris Baz	02:05.299	+4.153	7	314.8

Race · 30.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Andrea Dovizioso	42:27.333	25	19
2	Valentino Rossi	+3.115	20	19
3	Jorge Lorenzo	+11.924	16	19
4	Hector Barbera	+19.916	13	19
5	Loris Baz	+21.353	11	19
6	Maverick Viñales	+22.932	10	19
7	Alvaro Bautista	+25.829	9	19
8	Jack Miller	+32.746	8	19
9	Pol Espargaro	+33.704	7	19
10	Danilo Petrucci	+34.280	6	19
11	Marc Marquez	+36.480	5	19
12	Eugene Laverty	+36.638	4	19
13	Aleix Espargaro	+36.897	3	19
14	Bradley Smith	+45.609	2	19
15	Scott Redding	+49.779	1	19
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	+52.665	0	19
17	Stefan Bradl	+52.784	0	19
18	Tito Rabat	+54.891	0	19
Retired	Andrea Iannone		0	12
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	11
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		0	11

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Scott Redding	61%	8
2	Danilo Petrucci	51%	5
3	Cal Crutchlow	41%	1 ✓
4	Bradley Smith	15%	3
5	Eugene Laverty	16%	9
6	Stefan Bradl	4%	6
7	Jack Miller	9%	4
8	Yonny Hernandez	3%	10
9	Tito Rabat	0%	11
10	Loris Baz	0%	2 ✓
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	2%	7

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	46%	78%	96%	8
2	Marc Marquez	22%	54%	87%	4
3	Jorge Lorenzo	16%	49%	87%	3
4	Valentino Rossi	4%	36%	67%	2
5	Hector Barbera	3%	33%	65%	12
6	Andrea Iannone	4%	17%	58%	6
7	Aleix Espargaro	1%	13%	45%	7
8	Andrea Dovizioso	1%	10%	32%	1
9	Pol Espargaro	1%	3%	23%	11
10	Alvaro Bautista	0%	3%	15%	9
11	Cal Crutchlow	0%	1%	13%	5
12	Loris Baz	0%	2%	15%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Andrea Dovizioso	1	30%	60%	75%	86%	13%	1
Valentino Rossi	2	22%	57%	75%	89%	9%	2
Jorge Lorenzo	3	15%	48%	69%	89%	8%	3
Marc Marquez	4	10%	36%	59%	81%	15%	11
Cal Crutchlow	5	6%	25%	43%	67%	28%	—
Andrea Iannone	6	4%	17%	35%	66%	28%	—
Aleix Espargaro	7	4%	17%	35%	70%	20%	13
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	13%	31%	75%	10%	6
Alvaro Bautista	9	2%	8%	21%	65%	19%	7
Loris Baz	10	1%	5%	15%	55%	23%	5
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	5%	11%	52%	20%	9
Hector Barbera	12	1%	4%	10%	50%	15%	4
Bradley Smith	13	1%	2%	7%	42%	13%	14
Jack Miller	14	0%	2%	4%	27%	35%	8
Danilo Petrucci	15	0%	1%	4%	23%	23%	10
Stefan Bradl	16	0%	1%	2%	20%	21%	17
Hiroshi Aoyama	17	0%	1%	2%	16%	10%	16
Scott Redding	18	0%	1%	1%	11%	14%	15
Eugene Laverty	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	13%	12
Yonny Hernandez	20	0%	0%	1%	5%	27%	—
Tito Rabat	21	0%	0%	1%	5%	15%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.39%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.33%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Joan Mir +0.35%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.09%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.31%	Joan Mir +0.51%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Alex Marquez +0.46%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.27%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Brad Binder +0.10%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.49%	Jack Miller +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.49%	Fabio Quartararo +0.55%
S4	Jack Miller +0.26%	Franco Morbidelli +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.38%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

43/100

Position index

17%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	273	—
2	Valentino Rossi	216	−57
3	Jorge Lorenzo	192	−81
4	Maverick Viñales	181	−92
5	Daniel Pedrosa	155	−118
6	Cal Crutchlow	141	−132

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

3.612 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hector Barbera, from P25 to P13.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Jorge Lorenzo (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Enea BastianiniDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 21% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/23	17%
2024	2/20	10%
2023	5/23	22%
2022	5/24	21%
2019	3/20	15%
2018	4/23	17%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet