MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
ca es
Round 1 of 18 Aftermath

Qatar Grand Prix 2016

Lusail International Circuit Qatar

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004
17.03 – 20.03.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP42:28.45225
2Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+2.01920
3Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+2.28716
4Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+2.38713
5Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+14.08311
6Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+15.42310
7Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+18.6299
8Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+18.6528
9Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+21.1607
10Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+24.4356
11Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+35.8475
12Eugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+41.7564
13Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+41.9323
14Jack MillerHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+41.9822
15Tito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+54.9531
DNFAndrea IannoneDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFCal CrutchlowHondaLCR HondaRetired0
DNFLoris BazDucatiAvintia RacingRetired0
DNFStefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team GresiniRetired0
DNFYonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGPRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Jorge Lorenzo · 31% ✓Jorge Lorenzo · 31% · from P10.95 / 0.951.2 / 1.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

26
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
3 leaders
14/22
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
2.019 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P6 to P2.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jorge Lorenzo (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race21:04:02Jump startJump start
Race21:05:05Yonny HernandezRetiredRetired
Race21:12:17Andrea IannoneCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race21:13:35Cal CrutchlowCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race21:17:20Loris BazCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race21:24:39Stefan BradlCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
— °C
Air
max — °C
—
Humidity
Dry
Rain
— km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 17.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:55.440—15334.7
2Valentino Rossi01:55.707+0.26717338.4
3Andrea Iannone01:55.736+0.29616346.9
4Hector Barbera01:55.810+0.37016339.7
5Maverick Viñales01:55.847+0.40716335.5
6Pol Espargaro01:56.051+0.61118334.5
7Daniel Pedrosa01:56.098+0.65816336.4
8Marc Marquez01:56.258+0.81815335.9
9Andrea Dovizioso01:56.387+0.94714344.3
10Scott Redding01:56.412+0.97216334.3
11Bradley Smith01:56.524+1.08417333.8
12Cal Crutchlow01:56.596+1.15616334.3
13Loris Baz01:56.783+1.34314330.7
14Jack Miller01:56.939+1.49916334.0
15Danilo Petrucci01:56.981+1.54117334.3
16Aleix Espargaro01:57.096+1.65616327.8
17Alvaro Bautista01:57.129+1.68916331.8
18Yonny Hernandez01:57.192+1.75214334.4
19Eugene Laverty01:57.421+1.98114336.8
20Tito Rabat01:57.916+2.47618327.8
21Stefan Bradl01:57.989+2.54915327.3
FP2 · 18.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:55.388—18348.0
2Marc Marquez01:55.401+0.01316333.7
3Scott Redding01:55.511+0.12316337.9
4Maverick Viñales01:55.644+0.25616336.3
5Andrea Dovizioso01:55.721+0.33315345.2
6Daniel Pedrosa01:55.764+0.37616337.5
7Valentino Rossi01:55.883+0.49516335.2
8Hector Barbera01:55.919+0.53116341.0
9Jorge Lorenzo01:55.934+0.54613334.9
10Danilo Petrucci01:56.258+0.87017336.5
11Aleix Espargaro01:56.293+0.90516330.6
12Pol Espargaro01:56.324+0.93617334.6
13Cal Crutchlow01:56.489+1.10114333.6
14Yonny Hernandez01:56.558+1.17017337.7
15Loris Baz01:56.623+1.23512331.0
16Bradley Smith01:56.728+1.34017334.1
17Jack Miller01:56.900+1.51215334.5
18Alvaro Bautista01:57.012+1.62416330.6
19Tito Rabat01:57.429+2.04118332.5
20Stefan Bradl01:57.541+2.15316331.4
21Eugene Laverty01:57.722+2.33415337.0
FP3 · 18.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:54.639—18350.3
2Jorge Lorenzo01:54.776+0.13718335.6
3Marc Marquez01:54.835+0.19617337.2
4Andrea Dovizioso01:54.945+0.30616348.9
5Maverick Viñales01:54.976+0.33717337.2
6Daniel Pedrosa01:55.113+0.47418339.4
7Valentino Rossi01:55.175+0.53617338.9
8Hector Barbera01:55.323+0.68415343.8
9Scott Redding01:55.399+0.76014341.5
10Pol Espargaro01:55.476+0.83719337.9
11Aleix Espargaro01:55.491+0.85215332.5
12Bradley Smith01:55.505+0.86620339.5
13Loris Baz01:55.773+1.13418336.4
14Danilo Petrucci01:55.931+1.29214339.5
15Cal Crutchlow01:55.946+1.30716336.7
16Yonny Hernandez01:56.100+1.46117340.4
17Jack Miller01:56.207+1.56813337.0
18Tito Rabat01:56.625+1.98618336.4
19Alvaro Bautista01:56.749+2.11018336.3
20Stefan Bradl01:57.069+2.43017331.4
21Eugene Laverty01:57.135+2.49615340.2
FP4 · 19.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:55.301—11332.8
2Marc Marquez01:55.466+0.16513332.6
3Andrea Dovizioso01:55.656+0.35510343.9
4Valentino Rossi01:55.703+0.40213333.8
5Andrea Iannone01:55.853+0.55212348.4
6Cal Crutchlow01:55.904+0.60313334.0
7Pol Espargaro01:56.036+0.73514334.3
8Maverick Viñales01:56.037+0.73613333.9
9Scott Redding01:56.108+0.8077337.7
10Bradley Smith01:56.123+0.82213333.7
11Daniel Pedrosa01:56.442+1.14113334.0
12Yonny Hernandez01:56.467+1.1669338.8
13Hector Barbera01:56.540+1.23910336.1
14Loris Baz01:56.541+1.2408329.8
15Aleix Espargaro01:56.547+1.24611329.8
16Alvaro Bautista01:56.873+1.57211331.3
17Stefan Bradl01:57.155+1.8549326.3
18Eugene Laverty01:57.203+1.90212337.3
19Jack Miller01:57.538+2.23711329.5
20Tito Rabat01:57.757+2.45613330.0
RetiredDanilo Petrucci—00.0
Q1 · 19.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Cal Crutchlow01:55.291—3331.6
2Bradley Smith01:55.490+0.1995332.4
3Yonny Hernandez01:56.157+0.8666331.5
4Eugene Laverty01:56.186+0.8957336.1
5Aleix Espargaro01:56.238+0.9477326.0
6Loris Baz01:56.375+1.0847328.3
7Alvaro Bautista01:56.595+1.3044328.3
8Jack Miller01:56.620+1.3294331.3
9Tito Rabat01:57.108+1.8177331.5
10Stefan Bradl01:57.216+1.9258325.1
RetiredDanilo Petrucci—00.0
Q2 · 19.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:54.543—6333.1
2Marc Marquez01:54.634+0.0917330.1
3Maverick Viñales01:54.638+0.0957333.8
4Andrea Iannone01:54.693+0.1507349.7
5Valentino Rossi01:54.815+0.2727334.0
6Andrea Dovizioso01:54.963+0.4207344.0
7Daniel Pedrosa01:55.078+0.5357334.9
8Hector Barbera01:55.165+0.6227337.9
9Pol Espargaro01:55.302+0.7597337.5
10Cal Crutchlow01:55.352+0.8097334.4
11Bradley Smith01:55.414+0.8717332.5
12Scott Redding01:55.508+0.9657336.6
Warm Up · 20.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:55.400—10337.7
2Maverick Viñales01:55.627+0.22710338.2
3Jorge Lorenzo01:55.705+0.30510337.6
4Valentino Rossi01:55.708+0.30810341.8
5Andrea Dovizioso01:55.712+0.31210347.7
6Andrea Iannone01:55.792+0.39210351.2
7Cal Crutchlow01:56.030+0.63010338.7
8Scott Redding01:56.033+0.63310341.5
9Pol Espargaro01:56.256+0.85610338.5
10Bradley Smith01:56.426+1.02610340.3
11Daniel Pedrosa01:56.460+1.06010337.3
12Hector Barbera01:56.476+1.07610342.0
13Aleix Espargaro01:56.707+1.3079335.2
14Loris Baz01:56.920+1.52010333.1
15Yonny Hernandez01:56.956+1.5566347.0
16Jack Miller01:57.358+1.95810336.7
17Eugene Laverty01:57.402+2.00211343.2
18Stefan Bradl01:57.406+2.00610334.1
19Alvaro Bautista01:57.535+2.1359333.0
20Tito Rabat01:57.782+2.38210336.3
RetiredDanilo Petrucci—00.0
Race · 20.03
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Jorge Lorenzo42:28.4522522
2Andrea Dovizioso+2.0192022
3Marc Marquez+2.2871622
4Valentino Rossi+2.3871322
5Daniel Pedrosa+14.0831122
6Maverick Viñales+15.4231022
7Pol Espargaro+18.629922
8Bradley Smith+18.652822
9Hector Barbera+21.160722
10Scott Redding+24.435622
11Aleix Espargaro+35.847522
12Eugene Laverty+41.756422
13Alvaro Bautista+41.932322
14Jack Miller+41.982222
15Tito Rabat+54.953122
RetiredAndrea Iannone05
RetiredCal Crutchlow06
RetiredLoris Baz08
RetiredStefan Bradl011
RetiredYonny Hernandez01

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceDanilo Petrucci21——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Lorenzo131%66%81%92%7%1
Marc Marquez219%49%65%79%17%3
Maverick Viñales315%45%65%84%13%6
Andrea Iannone49%29%50%71%25%—
Valentino Rossi58%31%57%87%7%4
Andrea Dovizioso66%24%46%81%10%2
Daniel Pedrosa74%17%39%79%9%5
Hector Barbera83%12%29%69%15%9
Pol Espargaro92%7%18%59%24%7
Cal Crutchlow101%5%12%49%28%—
Bradley Smith111%5%12%58%10%8
Scott Redding121%4%9%48%12%10
Yonny Hernandez131%2%6%34%28%—
Eugene Laverty140%2%4%31%17%12
Aleix Espargaro150%1%3%24%17%11
Loris Baz160%1%2%19%18%—
Alvaro Bautista170%1%2%14%19%13
Jack Miller180%0%1%8%34%14
Tito Rabat190%0%1%7%19%15
Stefan Bradl200%0%0%5%23%—
Danilo Petrucci210%0%0%4%25%—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · MorbidelliS3 · M. MarquezS4 · Bagnaia

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

57/100
Position index
14%
Pole wins
48%
Front row on the podium
0.77
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

78
Overtakes
7
Lead changes
3 leaders
2/22
Laps led by the winner
Valentino Rossi
0.174 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P8 to P1.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jorge Lorenzo (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
  • 2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
  • 2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
  • 2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20254/2218%
20241/225%
20232/2110%
20226/2425%
20213/2214%
20193/2313%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet