Round 1 of 18 Aftermath

Qatar Grand Prix 2016

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004

17.03 – 20.03.2016

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	42:28.452	25
2	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+2.019	20
3	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.287	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+2.387	13
5	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.083	11
6	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+15.423	10
7	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+18.629	9
8	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+18.652	8
9	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+21.160	7
10	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+24.435	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+35.847	5
12	Eugene Laverty	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+41.756	4
13	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+41.932	3
14	Jack Miller	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	+41.982	2
15	Tito Rabat	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	+54.953	1
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	Retired	0
DNF	Loris Baz	Ducati	Avintia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Lorenzo · 31% ✓	Jorge Lorenzo · 31% · from P1	0.95 / 0.95	1.2 / 1.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

14/22

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

2.019 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P6 to P2.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jorge Lorenzo (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	21:04:02		Jump start	Jump start
Race	21:05:05	Yonny Hernandez	Retired	Retired
Race	21:12:17	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	21:13:35	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	21:17:20	Loris Baz	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	21:24:39	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Andrea Iannone (started P4).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Yonny Hernandez	13	8	+5
Stefan Bradl	20	16	+4
Jack Miller	18	14	+4
Hector Barbera	8	12	−4
Eugene Laverty	14	18	−4
Maverick Viñales	3	7	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Andrea Dovizioso	6→2	+4.0
Jorge Lorenzo	1→1	+1.8
Daniel Pedrosa	7→5	+1.7
Eugene Laverty	14→12	−0.8
Hector Barbera	8→9	−1.7
Maverick Viñales	3→6	−1.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

— °C

Air

max — °C

—

Humidity

Dry

Rain

— km/h

Wind

gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 17.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.440	—	15	334.7
2	Valentino Rossi	01:55.707	+0.267	17	338.4
3	Andrea Iannone	01:55.736	+0.296	16	346.9
4	Hector Barbera	01:55.810	+0.370	16	339.7
5	Maverick Viñales	01:55.847	+0.407	16	335.5
6	Pol Espargaro	01:56.051	+0.611	18	334.5
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.098	+0.658	16	336.4
8	Marc Marquez	01:56.258	+0.818	15	335.9
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.387	+0.947	14	344.3
10	Scott Redding	01:56.412	+0.972	16	334.3
11	Bradley Smith	01:56.524	+1.084	17	333.8
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.596	+1.156	16	334.3
13	Loris Baz	01:56.783	+1.343	14	330.7
14	Jack Miller	01:56.939	+1.499	16	334.0
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.981	+1.541	17	334.3
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.096	+1.656	16	327.8
17	Alvaro Bautista	01:57.129	+1.689	16	331.8
18	Yonny Hernandez	01:57.192	+1.752	14	334.4
19	Eugene Laverty	01:57.421	+1.981	14	336.8
20	Tito Rabat	01:57.916	+2.476	18	327.8
21	Stefan Bradl	01:57.989	+2.549	15	327.3

FP2 · 18.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Iannone	01:55.388	—	18	348.0
2	Marc Marquez	01:55.401	+0.013	16	333.7
3	Scott Redding	01:55.511	+0.123	16	337.9
4	Maverick Viñales	01:55.644	+0.256	16	336.3
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.721	+0.333	15	345.2
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.764	+0.376	16	337.5
7	Valentino Rossi	01:55.883	+0.495	16	335.2
8	Hector Barbera	01:55.919	+0.531	16	341.0
9	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.934	+0.546	13	334.9
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.258	+0.870	17	336.5
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.293	+0.905	16	330.6
12	Pol Espargaro	01:56.324	+0.936	17	334.6
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.489	+1.101	14	333.6
14	Yonny Hernandez	01:56.558	+1.170	17	337.7
15	Loris Baz	01:56.623	+1.235	12	331.0
16	Bradley Smith	01:56.728	+1.340	17	334.1
17	Jack Miller	01:56.900	+1.512	15	334.5
18	Alvaro Bautista	01:57.012	+1.624	16	330.6
19	Tito Rabat	01:57.429	+2.041	18	332.5
20	Stefan Bradl	01:57.541	+2.153	16	331.4
21	Eugene Laverty	01:57.722	+2.334	15	337.0

FP3 · 18.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Iannone	01:54.639	—	18	350.3
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:54.776	+0.137	18	335.6
3	Marc Marquez	01:54.835	+0.196	17	337.2
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:54.945	+0.306	16	348.9
5	Maverick Viñales	01:54.976	+0.337	17	337.2
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.113	+0.474	18	339.4
7	Valentino Rossi	01:55.175	+0.536	17	338.9
8	Hector Barbera	01:55.323	+0.684	15	343.8
9	Scott Redding	01:55.399	+0.760	14	341.5
10	Pol Espargaro	01:55.476	+0.837	19	337.9
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.491	+0.852	15	332.5
12	Bradley Smith	01:55.505	+0.866	20	339.5
13	Loris Baz	01:55.773	+1.134	18	336.4
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:55.931	+1.292	14	339.5
15	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.946	+1.307	16	336.7
16	Yonny Hernandez	01:56.100	+1.461	17	340.4
17	Jack Miller	01:56.207	+1.568	13	337.0
18	Tito Rabat	01:56.625	+1.986	18	336.4
19	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.749	+2.110	18	336.3
20	Stefan Bradl	01:57.069	+2.430	17	331.4
21	Eugene Laverty	01:57.135	+2.496	15	340.2

FP4 · 19.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.301	—	11	332.8
2	Marc Marquez	01:55.466	+0.165	13	332.6
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.656	+0.355	10	343.9
4	Valentino Rossi	01:55.703	+0.402	13	333.8
5	Andrea Iannone	01:55.853	+0.552	12	348.4
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.904	+0.603	13	334.0
7	Pol Espargaro	01:56.036	+0.735	14	334.3
8	Maverick Viñales	01:56.037	+0.736	13	333.9
9	Scott Redding	01:56.108	+0.807	7	337.7
10	Bradley Smith	01:56.123	+0.822	13	333.7
11	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.442	+1.141	13	334.0
12	Yonny Hernandez	01:56.467	+1.166	9	338.8
13	Hector Barbera	01:56.540	+1.239	10	336.1
14	Loris Baz	01:56.541	+1.240	8	329.8
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.547	+1.246	11	329.8
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.873	+1.572	11	331.3
17	Stefan Bradl	01:57.155	+1.854	9	326.3
18	Eugene Laverty	01:57.203	+1.902	12	337.3
19	Jack Miller	01:57.538	+2.237	11	329.5
20	Tito Rabat	01:57.757	+2.456	13	330.0
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		—	0	0.0

Q1 · 19.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.291	—	3	331.6
2	Bradley Smith	01:55.490	+0.199	5	332.4
3	Yonny Hernandez	01:56.157	+0.866	6	331.5
4	Eugene Laverty	01:56.186	+0.895	7	336.1
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.238	+0.947	7	326.0
6	Loris Baz	01:56.375	+1.084	7	328.3
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:56.595	+1.304	4	328.3
8	Jack Miller	01:56.620	+1.329	4	331.3
9	Tito Rabat	01:57.108	+1.817	7	331.5
10	Stefan Bradl	01:57.216	+1.925	8	325.1
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		—	0	0.0

Q2 · 19.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:54.543	—	6	333.1
2	Marc Marquez	01:54.634	+0.091	7	330.1
3	Maverick Viñales	01:54.638	+0.095	7	333.8
4	Andrea Iannone	01:54.693	+0.150	7	349.7
5	Valentino Rossi	01:54.815	+0.272	7	334.0
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:54.963	+0.420	7	344.0
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.078	+0.535	7	334.9
8	Hector Barbera	01:55.165	+0.622	7	337.9
9	Pol Espargaro	01:55.302	+0.759	7	337.5
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.352	+0.809	7	334.4
11	Bradley Smith	01:55.414	+0.871	7	332.5
12	Scott Redding	01:55.508	+0.965	7	336.6

Warm Up · 20.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:55.400	—	10	337.7
2	Maverick Viñales	01:55.627	+0.227	10	338.2
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.705	+0.305	10	337.6
4	Valentino Rossi	01:55.708	+0.308	10	341.8
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.712	+0.312	10	347.7
6	Andrea Iannone	01:55.792	+0.392	10	351.2
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.030	+0.630	10	338.7
8	Scott Redding	01:56.033	+0.633	10	341.5
9	Pol Espargaro	01:56.256	+0.856	10	338.5
10	Bradley Smith	01:56.426	+1.026	10	340.3
11	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.460	+1.060	10	337.3
12	Hector Barbera	01:56.476	+1.076	10	342.0
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:56.707	+1.307	9	335.2
14	Loris Baz	01:56.920	+1.520	10	333.1
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:56.956	+1.556	6	347.0
16	Jack Miller	01:57.358	+1.958	10	336.7
17	Eugene Laverty	01:57.402	+2.002	11	343.2
18	Stefan Bradl	01:57.406	+2.006	10	334.1
19	Alvaro Bautista	01:57.535	+2.135	9	333.0
20	Tito Rabat	01:57.782	+2.382	10	336.3
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		—	0	0.0

Race · 20.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Jorge Lorenzo	42:28.452	25	22
2	Andrea Dovizioso	+2.019	20	22
3	Marc Marquez	+2.287	16	22
4	Valentino Rossi	+2.387	13	22
5	Daniel Pedrosa	+14.083	11	22
6	Maverick Viñales	+15.423	10	22
7	Pol Espargaro	+18.629	9	22
8	Bradley Smith	+18.652	8	22
9	Hector Barbera	+21.160	7	22
10	Scott Redding	+24.435	6	22
11	Aleix Espargaro	+35.847	5	22
12	Eugene Laverty	+41.756	4	22
13	Alvaro Bautista	+41.932	3	22
14	Jack Miller	+41.982	2	22
15	Tito Rabat	+54.953	1	22
Retired	Andrea Iannone		0	5
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	6
Retired	Loris Baz		0	8
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	11
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		0	1

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Aleix Espargaro	72%	5
2	Bradley Smith	49%	2 ✓
3	Loris Baz	38%	6
4	Cal Crutchlow	17%	1 ✓
5	Yonny Hernandez	13%	3
6	Jack Miller	4%	8
7	Tito Rabat	8%	9
8	Alvaro Bautista	0%	7
9	Stefan Bradl	0%	10
10	Eugene Laverty	0%	4

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Andrea Iannone	47%	77%	94%	4
2	Jorge Lorenzo	21%	55%	85%	1
3	Marc Marquez	19%	53%	91%	2
4	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	34%	68%	6
5	Maverick Viñales	2%	34%	70%	3
6	Daniel Pedrosa	6%	19%	59%	7
7	Valentino Rossi	2%	13%	47%	5
8	Hector Barbera	0%	9%	28%	8
9	Scott Redding	0%	2%	19%	12
10	Pol Espargaro	0%	2%	15%	9
11	Bradley Smith	0%	0%	11%	11
12	Cal Crutchlow	0%	2%	15%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Danilo Petrucci	21	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Lorenzo	1	31%	66%	81%	92%	7%	1
Marc Marquez	2	19%	49%	65%	79%	17%	3
Maverick Viñales	3	15%	45%	65%	84%	13%	6
Andrea Iannone	4	9%	29%	50%	71%	25%	—
Valentino Rossi	5	8%	31%	57%	87%	7%	4
Andrea Dovizioso	6	6%	24%	46%	81%	10%	2
Daniel Pedrosa	7	4%	17%	39%	79%	9%	5
Hector Barbera	8	3%	12%	29%	69%	15%	9
Pol Espargaro	9	2%	7%	18%	59%	24%	7
Cal Crutchlow	10	1%	5%	12%	49%	28%	—
Bradley Smith	11	1%	5%	12%	58%	10%	8
Scott Redding	12	1%	4%	9%	48%	12%	10
Yonny Hernandez	13	1%	2%	6%	34%	28%	—
Eugene Laverty	14	0%	2%	4%	31%	17%	12
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	3%	24%	17%	11
Loris Baz	16	0%	1%	2%	19%	18%	—
Alvaro Bautista	17	0%	1%	2%	14%	19%	13
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	1%	8%	34%	14
Tito Rabat	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	19%	15
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	23%	—
Danilo Petrucci	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	25%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.50%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%	Ai Ogura +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Alex Marquez +0.41%	Alex Rins +0.51%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Franco Morbidelli +0.31%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.55%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.19%	Raul Fernandez +0.43%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.21%
S4	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%	Joan Mir +0.37%
S2	Pol Espargaro +0.40%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S3	Alex Rins +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.19%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Franco Morbidelli +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.27%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.47%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%
S4	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Danilo Petrucci +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.26%
S2	Valentino Rossi +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.45%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.15%	Alex Rins +0.32%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

57/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

2/22

Laps led by the winner

Valentino Rossi

0.174 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P8 to P1.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jorge Lorenzo (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	1/22	5%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	6/24	25%
2021	3/22	14%
2019	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet