Round 2 of 18 Aftermath

Argentine Grand Prix 2016

4.805 m · 25 laps · since 2014

01.04 – 03.04.2016

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	34:13.628	25
2	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+7.679	20
3	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+28.100	16
4	Eugene Laverty	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	+36.542	13
5	Hector Barbera	Ducati	Avintia Racing	+36.711	11
6	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+37.245	10
7	Stefan Bradl	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+41.353	9
8	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+50.709	8
9	Tito Rabat	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	+50.983	7
10	Alvaro Bautista	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+61.388	6
11	Aleix Espargaro	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+68.868	5
12	Michele Pirro	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	+78.987	4
13	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+93.419	3
DNF	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Ducati Team	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Honda	Estrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Loris Baz	Ducati	Avintia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Scott Redding	Ducati	OCTO Pramac Yakhnich	Retired	0
DNF	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Aspar Team MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 27% ✓	Marc Marquez · 27% · from P1	0.57 / 0.57	3.9 / 3.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

139

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

18/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

7.679 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Eugene Laverty, from P17 to P4.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Pol Espargaro (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	16:01:32		Jump start	Jump start
Race	16:02:44	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:02:44	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:04:37	Yonny Hernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:06:25	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:09:26	Jorge Lorenzo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:19:16	Michele Pirro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:21:59	Loris Baz	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	16:27:56	Scott Redding	Retired	Retired
Race	16:30:01	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:34:40	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:34:50	Andrea Dovizioso	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	16:34:50	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Andrea Dovizioso (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Yonny Hernandez	21	16	+5
Andrea Dovizioso	5	1	+4
Eugene Laverty	17	13	+4
Daniel Pedrosa	4	15	−11
Bradley Smith	12	21	−9
Jorge Lorenzo	3	6	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Eugene Laverty	17→4	+9.1
Stefan Bradl	16→7	+5.5
Tito Rabat	19→9	+5.4
Valentino Rossi	2→2	+1.5
Aleix Espargaro	11→11	−1.7
Andrea Dovizioso	5→13	−7.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

— °C

Air

max — °C

—

Humidity

1.1 mm

Rain

— km/h

Wind

gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 01.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:43.684	—	14	323.0
2	Marc Marquez	01:43.778	+0.094	16	313.8
3	Yonny Hernandez	01:44.027	+0.343	16	318.2
4	Maverick Viñales	01:44.113	+0.429	17	317.4
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:44.128	+0.444	16	312.5
6	Valentino Rossi	01:44.181	+0.497	13	318.9
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:44.231	+0.547	14	315.3
8	Jack Miller	01:44.244	+0.560	20	310.2
9	Bradley Smith	01:44.275	+0.591	16	316.0
10	Scott Redding	01:44.293	+0.609	19	318.7
11	Hector Barbera	01:44.455	+0.771	17	315.7
12	Jorge Lorenzo	01:44.742	+1.058	13	316.1
13	Loris Baz	01:45.080	+1.396	18	309.5
14	Eugene Laverty	01:45.294	+1.610	15	311.2
15	Alvaro Bautista	01:45.447	+1.763	17	309.2
16	Stefan Bradl	01:45.519	+1.835	18	307.4
17	Pol Espargaro	01:45.590	+1.906	18	314.8
18	Andrea Iannone	01:45.792	+2.108	17	325.7
19	Tito Rabat	01:45.876	+2.192	22	309.6
20	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.086	+2.402	11	309.8
Retired	Michele Pirro		—	0	0.0

FP2 · 01.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:41.579	—	16	316.8
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:41.604	+0.025	16	315.4
3	Maverick Viñales	01:42.047	+0.468	15	316.0
4	Jack Miller	01:42.375	+0.796	17	312.8
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:42.451	+0.872	18	315.0
6	Scott Redding	01:42.458	+0.879	18	317.9
7	Valentino Rossi	01:42.565	+0.986	19	316.6
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:42.576	+0.997	12	313.8
9	Bradley Smith	01:42.595	+1.016	18	317.0
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:42.635	+1.056	18	323.4
11	Hector Barbera	01:42.664	+1.085	16	319.4
12	Eugene Laverty	01:42.724	+1.145	14	318.2
13	Pol Espargaro	01:42.774	+1.195	16	317.4
14	Jorge Lorenzo	01:42.819	+1.240	14	317.8
15	Andrea Iannone	01:42.953	+1.374	19	325.2
16	Loris Baz	01:43.054	+1.475	18	312.9
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:43.242	+1.663	13	318.5
18	Tito Rabat	01:43.538	+1.959	18	312.3
19	Alvaro Bautista	01:43.800	+2.221	18	310.7
20	Stefan Bradl	01:43.892	+2.313	17	307.7
Retired	Michele Pirro		—	0	0.0

FP3 · 02.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:40.368	—	18	318.9
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:40.392	+0.024	18	322.6
3	Andrea Iannone	01:40.741	+0.373	21	330.0
4	Hector Barbera	01:40.766	+0.398	17	320.7
5	Maverick Viñales	01:40.796	+0.428	18	323.2
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.807	+0.439	18	320.5
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.893	+0.525	17	319.0
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.929	+0.561	18	319.7
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.040	+0.672	18	328.2
10	Valentino Rossi	01:41.101	+0.733	20	322.2
11	Jack Miller	01:41.145	+0.777	18	317.8
12	Pol Espargaro	01:41.171	+0.803	20	320.8
13	Bradley Smith	01:41.246	+0.878	20	321.9
14	Loris Baz	01:41.359	+0.991	18	318.0
15	Michele Pirro	01:41.379	+1.011	18	321.3
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:41.679	+1.311	20	317.5
17	Scott Redding	01:41.726	+1.358	17	321.7
18	Tito Rabat	01:41.798	+1.430	22	318.4
19	Stefan Bradl	01:41.909	+1.541	20	313.5
20	Yonny Hernandez	01:41.924	+1.556	17	320.9
21	Eugene Laverty	01:42.106	+1.738	18	322.5

FP4 · 02.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.882	—	18	321.2
2	Andrea Iannone	01:40.753	+0.871	13	322.9
3	Valentino Rossi	01:40.777	+0.895	17	322.6
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:40.816	+0.934	11	321.0
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.870	+0.988	14	319.7
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.042	+1.160	12	327.0
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:41.045	+1.163	17	317.7
8	Maverick Viñales	01:41.080	+1.198	15	322.0
9	Bradley Smith	01:41.324	+1.442	19	321.7
10	Scott Redding	01:41.430	+1.548	10	322.4
11	Eugene Laverty	01:41.457	+1.575	9	324.1
12	Jack Miller	01:41.469	+1.587	10	320.1
13	Pol Espargaro	01:41.601	+1.719	16	320.5
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.605	+1.723	11	320.2
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:41.835	+1.953	11	323.0
16	Stefan Bradl	01:41.957	+2.075	14	316.2
17	Michele Pirro	01:42.389	+2.507	10	320.7
18	Hector Barbera	01:42.439	+2.557	11	324.9
19	Tito Rabat	01:42.466	+2.584	11	317.3
20	Alvaro Bautista	01:42.498	+2.616	13	316.3
21	Loris Baz	01:42.920	+3.038	11	317.6

Q1 · 02.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Bradley Smith	01:40.552	—	7	319.6
2	Pol Espargaro	01:40.715	+0.163	8	318.0
3	Loris Baz	01:40.744	+0.192	6	315.3
4	Scott Redding	01:40.750	+0.198	7	320.7
5	Jack Miller	01:40.881	+0.329	5	316.7
6	Stefan Bradl	01:40.897	+0.345	8	314.3
7	Eugene Laverty	01:40.990	+0.438	8	322.1
8	Michele Pirro	01:41.116	+0.564	7	319.7
9	Tito Rabat	01:41.157	+0.605	7	315.2
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:41.611	+1.059	7	313.3
11	Yonny Hernandez	01:41.692	+1.140	3	317.9

Q2 · 02.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.411	—	7	315.3
2	Valentino Rossi	01:39.786	+0.375	8	317.4
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.944	+0.533	8	317.5
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.011	+0.600	8	317.0
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.198	+0.787	8	323.4
6	Andrea Iannone	01:40.272	+0.861	8	325.1
7	Maverick Viñales	01:40.375	+0.964	7	317.6
8	Hector Barbera	01:40.524	+1.113	8	317.2
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:40.528	+1.117	6	313.6
10	Pol Espargaro	01:40.654	+1.243	8	316.1
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.708	+1.297	7	313.3
12	Bradley Smith	01:40.893	+1.482	5	315.3

Warm Up · 03.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Iannone	01:49.177	—	13	308.3
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:49.183	+0.006	12	298.2
3	Marc Marquez	01:49.207	+0.030	13	307.4
4	Hector Barbera	01:49.259	+0.082	13	306.9
5	Valentino Rossi	01:49.456	+0.279	13	307.0
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.473	+0.296	13	310.6
7	Yonny Hernandez	01:49.763	+0.586	13	310.8
8	Jack Miller	01:50.551	+1.374	11	302.4
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:50.872	+1.695	13	294.2
10	Loris Baz	01:50.962	+1.785	13	302.8
11	Scott Redding	01:50.971	+1.794	12	308.9
12	Jorge Lorenzo	01:51.053	+1.876	10	304.9
13	Maverick Viñales	01:51.064	+1.887	13	308.0
14	Stefan Bradl	01:51.317	+2.140	12	289.3
15	Alvaro Bautista	01:51.439	+2.262	13	297.3
16	Michele Pirro	01:51.556	+2.379	13	302.9
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:51.622	+2.445	11	303.2
18	Pol Espargaro	01:52.000	+2.823	13	297.9
19	Tito Rabat	01:52.050	+2.873	16	300.2
20	Eugene Laverty	01:52.209	+3.032	12	296.0
21	Bradley Smith	01:52.566	+3.389	12	289.1

Race · 03.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Marc Marquez	34:13.628	25	20
2	Valentino Rossi	+7.679	20	20
3	Daniel Pedrosa	+28.100	16	20
4	Eugene Laverty	+36.542	13	20
5	Hector Barbera	+36.711	11	20
6	Pol Espargaro	+37.245	10	20
7	Stefan Bradl	+41.353	9	20
8	Bradley Smith	+50.709	8	20
9	Tito Rabat	+50.983	7	20
10	Alvaro Bautista	+61.388	6	20
11	Aleix Espargaro	+68.868	5	20
12	Michele Pirro	+78.987	4	20
13	Andrea Dovizioso	+93.419	3	20
Retired	Andrea Iannone		0	19
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	19
Retired	Jack Miller		0	3
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		0	5
Retired	Loris Baz		0	12
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	17
Retired	Scott Redding		0	15
Retired	Yonny Hernandez		0	2

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jack Miller	70%	5
2	Pol Espargaro	50%	2 ✓
3	Bradley Smith	37%	1 ✓
4	Loris Baz	19%	3
5	Michele Pirro	13%	8
6	Scott Redding	4%	4
7	Eugene Laverty	7%	7
8	Alvaro Bautista	0%	10
9	Tito Rabat	0%	9
10	Yonny Hernandez	0%	11
11	Stefan Bradl	0%	6

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	46%	76%	94%	1
2	Jorge Lorenzo	22%	56%	85%	3
3	Andrea Iannone	19%	54%	91%	6
4	Hector Barbera	4%	33%	69%	8
5	Valentino Rossi	2%	35%	70%	2
6	Maverick Viñales	6%	19%	57%	7
7	Daniel Pedrosa	2%	13%	48%	4
8	Aleix Espargaro	0%	9%	28%	11
9	Cal Crutchlow	0%	2%	19%	9
10	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	2%	15%	5
11	Pol Espargaro	0%	0%	11%	10
12	Bradley Smith	0%	2%	15%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	27%	57%	72%	82%	17%	1
Valentino Rossi	2	23%	56%	75%	91%	7%	2
Jorge Lorenzo	3	15%	48%	70%	89%	7%	—
Daniel Pedrosa	4	12%	40%	63%	87%	9%	3
Andrea Dovizioso	5	8%	28%	54%	84%	10%	13
Andrea Iannone	6	4%	20%	37%	68%	26%	—
Maverick Viñales	7	4%	17%	36%	76%	13%	—
Hector Barbera	8	3%	12%	28%	72%	15%	5
Cal Crutchlow	9	1%	6%	16%	54%	29%	—
Pol Espargaro	10	1%	5%	13%	54%	24%	6
Aleix Espargaro	11	1%	4%	11%	52%	17%	11
Bradley Smith	12	1%	3%	8%	51%	10%	8
Loris Baz	13	0%	2%	5%	34%	21%	—
Scott Redding	14	0%	1%	5%	34%	12%	—
Jack Miller	15	0%	1%	2%	19%	33%	—
Stefan Bradl	16	0%	1%	2%	17%	24%	7
Eugene Laverty	17	0%	0%	1%	12%	17%	4
Michele Pirro	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	21%	12
Tito Rabat	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	16%	9
Alvaro Bautista	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	19%	10
Yonny Hernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	29%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,820 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Pedro Acosta +0.38%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.37%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.02%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.42%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.79%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Maverick Viñales +0.05%	Jorge Martin +0.44%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.10%	Luca Marini +0.13%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.25%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Pol Espargaro +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Aleix Espargaro +0.00%	Alex Rins +0.32%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%
S4	Brad Binder	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Franco Morbidelli +0.27%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Cal Crutchlow +0.16%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Cal Crutchlow +0.22%	Valentino Rossi +0.58%
S2	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.39%	Cal Crutchlow +0.93%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

10/100

Position index

60%

Pole wins

60%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 20% of the time (between 4% and 62%; 5 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Lorenzo	25	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	20	−5
3	Marc Marquez	16	−9
4	Valentino Rossi	13	−12
5	Daniel Pedrosa	11	−14
6	Maverick Viñales	10	−15

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

2/25

Laps led by the winner

Valentino Rossi

5.685 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Pol Espargaro, from P18 to P8.

Longest battle: Andrea Iannone vs Cal Crutchlow (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Cal CrutchlowHonda
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2016Marc MarquezHonda
2015Valentino RossiYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	2/20	10%
2023	0/17	0%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/22	23%
2018	3/24	13%
2017	7/23	30%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet