MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 8 of 18 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2016

TT Circuit Assen Netherlands

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949
24.06 – 26.06.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jack MillerHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS22:17.44725
2Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+1.99120
3Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+5.90616
4Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+9.81213
5Andrea IannoneDucatiDucati Team+17.83511
6Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+18.69210
7Eugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+22.6059
8Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+23.6038
9Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+26.1487
10Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+27.6046
11Tito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+81.8305
12Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+114.3694
13Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+0.0003
DNFAleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTARRetired0
DNFAlvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team GresiniRetired0
DNFAndrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFCal CrutchlowHondaLCR HondaOut on lap 10
DNFDanilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac YakhnichRetired0
DNFMichele PirroDucatiAvintia RacingRetired0
DNFValentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGPRetired0
DNFYonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGPDid not start0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Andrea Dovizioso · 30%Jack Miller · 0% · from P190.40 / 0.403.6 / 3.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

14
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
3 leaders
9/12
Laps led by the winner
Jack Miller
1.991 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jack Miller, from P19 to P1.

Longest battle: Pol Espargaro vs Scott Redding (8 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race13:41:49Eugene LavertyCrashCrashed out in sighting lap
Race14:02:01Jump startJump start
Race14:21:46Yonny HernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:25:41Andrea IannoneCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:27:46Yonny HernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:29:06Red flagRed flag

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
— °C
Air
max — °C
—
Humidity
8.1 mm
Rain
— km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 24.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:34.349—18308.6
2Andrea Dovizioso01:34.575+0.22617307.9
3Pol Espargaro01:34.649+0.30019304.3
4Scott Redding01:34.660+0.31118303.7
5Danilo Petrucci01:34.660+0.31120301.0
6Jorge Lorenzo01:34.722+0.37318303.2
7Valentino Rossi01:34.758+0.40921299.5
8Maverick Viñales01:34.759+0.41020304.2
9Bradley Smith01:34.918+0.56919301.1
10Hector Barbera01:34.954+0.60518305.1
11Marc Marquez01:34.972+0.62318301.7
12Cal Crutchlow01:35.026+0.67718302.3
13Daniel Pedrosa01:35.294+0.94518303.5
14Aleix Espargaro01:35.365+1.01618299.5
15Michele Pirro01:35.530+1.18117301.2
16Yonny Hernandez01:35.672+1.32320295.8
17Eugene Laverty01:35.989+1.64019302.4
18Jack Miller01:36.019+1.67017300.3
19Alvaro Bautista01:36.188+1.83919295.9
20Stefan Bradl01:36.284+1.93516299.1
21Tito Rabat01:37.850+3.50121296.5
FP2 · 24.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:33.591—20313.4
2Valentino Rossi01:33.595+0.00420303.0
3Marc Marquez01:33.724+0.13320305.6
4Maverick Viñales01:33.892+0.30119305.0
5Jorge Lorenzo01:33.991+0.40020303.4
6Andrea Dovizioso01:34.011+0.42021311.3
7Danilo Petrucci01:34.065+0.47421303.1
8Aleix Espargaro01:34.087+0.49619300.8
9Pol Espargaro01:34.163+0.57217308.0
10Scott Redding01:34.172+0.58117306.3
11Daniel Pedrosa01:34.206+0.61520304.9
12Hector Barbera01:34.404+0.81315304.9
13Cal Crutchlow01:34.480+0.88917303.4
14Bradley Smith01:34.531+0.94021302.2
15Eugene Laverty01:34.789+1.19817301.1
16Jack Miller01:35.008+1.41718301.7
17Stefan Bradl01:35.056+1.46519299.8
18Yonny Hernandez01:35.125+1.53418299.0
19Michele Pirro01:35.220+1.62915298.6
20Alvaro Bautista01:35.284+1.69312301.7
21Tito Rabat01:36.582+2.99119298.0
FP3 · 25.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Dovizioso01:33.308—19313.4
2Marc Marquez01:33.336+0.02821306.9
3Maverick Viñales01:33.370+0.06219309.7
4Valentino Rossi01:33.408+0.10022310.5
5Cal Crutchlow01:33.611+0.30320308.4
6Scott Redding01:33.690+0.38217311.0
7Danilo Petrucci01:33.731+0.42321309.8
8Aleix Espargaro01:33.734+0.42621301.9
9Andrea Iannone01:33.894+0.58623317.1
10Jorge Lorenzo01:33.919+0.61113306.4
11Hector Barbera01:33.947+0.63910311.3
12Pol Espargaro01:33.995+0.68715308.8
13Daniel Pedrosa01:34.022+0.71420312.1
14Jack Miller01:34.235+0.92720306.8
15Bradley Smith01:34.502+1.19420307.7
16Stefan Bradl01:34.680+1.37221305.7
17Yonny Hernandez01:35.186+1.87815302.8
18Alvaro Bautista01:35.458+2.15018306.3
19Tito Rabat01:35.628+2.32020303.4
20Michele Pirro01:35.655+2.34713302.9
21Eugene Laverty01:36.084+2.77613306.4
FP4 · 25.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:48.628—8288.0
2Valentino Rossi01:49.326+0.6989276.6
3Danilo Petrucci01:49.504+0.8766289.2
4Daniel Pedrosa01:49.747+1.1196276.9
5Maverick Viñales01:49.868+1.2408279.9
6Andrea Iannone01:49.993+1.3655279.2
7Scott Redding01:50.053+1.4254283.5
8Jorge Lorenzo01:50.104+1.4768264.6
9Pol Espargaro01:50.352+1.7248278.2
10Jack Miller01:50.590+1.9625268.9
11Tito Rabat01:50.815+2.18711272.8
12Andrea Dovizioso01:50.985+2.3576273.2
13Aleix Espargaro01:51.036+2.4085269.3
14Hector Barbera01:51.090+2.4628280.5
15Stefan Bradl01:51.443+2.8153266.0
16Bradley Smith01:52.107+3.4795275.8
17Alvaro Bautista01:52.762+4.1345271.7
18Yonny Hernandez01:54.545+5.9174257.6
—Cal Crutchlow01:56.270+7.6424275.2
—Eugene Laverty01:59.490+10.8624271.0
RetiredMichele Pirro—00.0
Q1 · 25.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Pol Espargaro01:48.482—8282.7
2Yonny Hernandez01:48.535+0.0538278.2
3Hector Barbera01:48.830+0.3486285.8
4Bradley Smith01:48.909+0.4278288.6
5Alvaro Bautista01:49.163+0.6818284.1
6Daniel Pedrosa01:49.364+0.8828275.5
7Eugene Laverty01:49.678+1.1967272.1
8Stefan Bradl01:49.685+1.2038273.6
9Jack Miller01:49.775+1.2934270.1
10Tito Rabat01:49.779+1.2979276.9
11Michele Pirro01:50.204+1.7227279.6
Q2 · 25.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Dovizioso01:45.246—7290.0
2Valentino Rossi01:45.961+0.7157290.1
3Scott Redding01:46.312+1.0667289.8
4Marc Marquez01:46.430+1.1844288.6
5Cal Crutchlow01:46.568+1.3228296.2
6Yonny Hernandez01:46.828+1.5826278.7
7Pol Espargaro01:46.997+1.7518292.8
8Aleix Espargaro01:47.118+1.8727290.8
9Andrea Iannone01:47.567+2.3217292.3
10Danilo Petrucci01:47.601+2.3558290.6
11Jorge Lorenzo01:47.897+2.6519281.4
12Maverick Viñales01:48.415+3.1696293.8
Warm Up · 26.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:34.638—11309.3
2Andrea Dovizioso01:34.771+0.13310307.6
3Maverick Viñales01:34.891+0.25312301.8
4Valentino Rossi01:34.948+0.31012301.3
5Marc Marquez01:34.996+0.35812300.5
6Jorge Lorenzo01:35.246+0.60810300.5
7Pol Espargaro01:35.284+0.64612302.8
8Bradley Smith01:35.342+0.70412299.7
9Alvaro Bautista01:35.626+0.98812298.5
10Scott Redding01:35.732+1.09412301.0
11Aleix Espargaro01:36.094+1.4569295.3
12Jack Miller01:36.201+1.5639299.5
13Michele Pirro01:36.204+1.56611298.5
14Danilo Petrucci01:36.233+1.59510303.7
15Daniel Pedrosa01:36.474+1.83612301.5
16Tito Rabat01:36.531+1.8937295.1
17Cal Crutchlow01:36.551+1.9138298.9
18Stefan Bradl01:36.698+2.06011294.1
19Yonny Hernandez01:37.333+2.6954294.0
20Eugene Laverty01:37.930+3.29211299.7
21Hector Barbera01:38.090+3.4525302.9
Race (RAC2) · 26.06
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Jack Miller22:17.4472512
2Marc Marquez+1.9912012
3Scott Redding+5.9061612
4Pol Espargaro+9.8121312
5Andrea Iannone+17.8351112
6Hector Barbera+18.6921012
7Eugene Laverty+22.605912
8Stefan Bradl+23.603812
9Maverick Viñales+26.148712
10Jorge Lorenzo+27.604612
11Tito Rabat+81.830512
12Daniel Pedrosa+114.369412
13Bradley Smith+0.00039
RetiredAleix Espargaro02
RetiredAlvaro Bautista011
RetiredAndrea Dovizioso01
Out on lap 1Cal Crutchlow00
RetiredDanilo Petrucci01
RetiredMichele Pirro05
RetiredValentino Rossi02
Did not startYonny Hernandez00

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Andrea Dovizioso130%61%77%87%12%—
Valentino Rossi222%56%74%89%8%—
Scott Redding315%45%64%80%17%3
Marc Marquez412%38%61%80%15%2
Cal Crutchlow56%24%43%66%29%—
Yonny Hernandez64%19%37%64%29%—
Pol Espargaro74%17%35%69%21%4
Aleix Espargaro83%13%30%69%17%—
Andrea Iannone92%8%19%56%28%5
Danilo Petrucci101%6%16%57%24%—
Jorge Lorenzo111%4%14%62%8%10
Maverick Viñales121%3%10%51%13%9
Hector Barbera130%2%7%42%14%6
Bradley Smith140%2%5%35%12%13
Alvaro Bautista150%1%3%27%19%—
Daniel Pedrosa160%0%2%24%9%12
Eugene Laverty170%0%2%16%13%7
Stefan Bradl180%0%1%10%22%8
Jack Miller190%0%0%6%37%1
Tito Rabat200%0%0%5%18%11
Michele Pirro210%0%0%4%19%—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BezzecchiS2 · BagnaiaS3 · QuartararoS4 · Ogura

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100
Position index
38%
Pole wins
50%
Front row on the podium
0.84
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

49
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
2 leaders
22/26
Laps led by the winner
Valentino Rossi
1.242 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Nicky Hayden, from P22 to P16.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Valentino Rossi (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Ai OguraAprilia
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20266/2227%
20256/2227%
20244/2119%
20238/2236%
20224/2417%
20214/2218%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet