MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
ca es
Round 7 of 18 Aftermath

Catalan Grand Prix 2016

Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya Spain

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991
03.06 – 05.06.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP44:37.58925
2Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+2.65220
3Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+6.31316
4Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+24.38813
5Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+29.54611
6Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+36.24410
7Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+41.4649
8Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+42.9758
9Danilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+45.3377
10Jack MillerHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+49.5146
11Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+46.6695
12Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+55.1334
13Eugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+57.9743
14Tito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+60.1412
15Michele PirroDucatiAvintia Racing+60.4291
16Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+76.2690
17Yonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+0.0000
DNFAleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTARRetired0
DNFAndrea IannoneDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFBradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3Retired0
DNFJorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGPRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 28%Valentino Rossi · 7% · from P50.62 / 0.623.1 / 3.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

63
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
3 leaders
18/25
Laps led by the winner
Valentino Rossi
2.652 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P21 to P8.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Valentino Rossi (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:02:14Jump startJump start
Race14:12:30Bradley SmithRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:19:36Yonny HernandezPosition penaltyTo drop 1 position
Race14:27:56Yonny HernandezPosition penaltyTo drop 1 position
Race14:30:52Jorge LorenzoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:30:52Andrea IannoneCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:33:53Aleix EspargaroRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race15:06:43Hector BarberaPosition penalty1 position penalty

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
— °C
Air
max — °C
—
Humidity
Dry
Rain
— km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 03.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:42.065—18337.8
2Jorge Lorenzo01:42.143+0.07815337.0
3Valentino Rossi01:42.536+0.47119336.6
4Pol Espargaro01:42.709+0.64416334.9
5Yonny Hernandez01:42.767+0.70217337.7
6Andrea Iannone01:42.865+0.80018343.2
7Marc Marquez01:42.886+0.82117338.8
8Hector Barbera01:42.926+0.86114338.5
9Cal Crutchlow01:42.994+0.92918332.9
10Aleix Espargaro01:43.162+1.09714335.1
11Alvaro Bautista01:43.180+1.11518331.1
12Scott Redding01:43.202+1.13714337.6
13Andrea Dovizioso01:43.214+1.14916339.3
14Daniel Pedrosa01:43.309+1.24418338.2
15Eugene Laverty01:43.322+1.25718335.0
16Bradley Smith01:43.470+1.40520332.2
17Danilo Petrucci01:43.783+1.71815336.0
18Jack Miller01:43.825+1.76016335.9
19Stefan Bradl01:44.009+1.94418332.3
20Michele Pirro01:44.262+2.19716331.1
21Tito Rabat01:45.122+3.05718329.8
FP2 · 03.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:41.712—17336.1
2Maverick Viñales01:41.954+0.24216336.6
3Cal Crutchlow01:42.011+0.29919334.0
4Daniel Pedrosa01:42.196+0.48418339.3
5Scott Redding01:42.282+0.57017339.7
6Valentino Rossi01:42.296+0.58419334.7
7Hector Barbera01:42.308+0.59617338.9
8Andrea Iannone01:42.461+0.74918339.8
9Marc Marquez01:42.485+0.77316338.2
10Andrea Dovizioso01:42.490+0.77817340.8
11Yonny Hernandez01:42.516+0.80419335.2
12Aleix Espargaro01:42.539+0.82716332.5
13Danilo Petrucci01:42.830+1.11820337.5
14Eugene Laverty01:42.870+1.15817337.8
15Pol Espargaro01:43.017+1.30517335.6
16Alvaro Bautista01:43.292+1.58018330.8
17Michele Pirro01:43.461+1.74917329.3
18Stefan Bradl01:43.502+1.79019334.8
19Jack Miller01:43.621+1.90915337.1
20Tito Rabat01:43.648+1.93617329.8
21Bradley Smith01:44.171+2.45920333.6
FP3 · 04.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:44.727—22340.5
2Marc Marquez01:44.847+0.12021341.2
3Daniel Pedrosa01:44.951+0.22421345.9
4Valentino Rossi01:45.071+0.34423340.8
5Pol Espargaro01:45.193+0.46621338.5
6Jorge Lorenzo01:45.287+0.56020340.8
7Scott Redding01:45.305+0.57823343.2
8Danilo Petrucci01:45.321+0.59423341.6
9Cal Crutchlow01:45.344+0.61722337.0
10Andrea Iannone01:45.517+0.79024347.2
11Yonny Hernandez01:45.543+0.81624342.6
12Andrea Dovizioso01:45.602+0.87521345.7
13Hector Barbera01:45.734+1.00720334.0
14Aleix Espargaro01:46.018+1.29121337.3
15Jack Miller01:46.051+1.32422338.8
16Alvaro Bautista01:46.343+1.61623338.2
17Michele Pirro01:46.558+1.83120337.1
18Eugene Laverty01:46.613+1.88621337.1
19Stefan Bradl01:46.826+2.09922338.0
20Tito Rabat01:46.993+2.26622335.4
21Bradley Smith01:47.513+2.78619337.0
FP4 · 04.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:45.194—13338.4
2Cal Crutchlow01:45.604+0.41012335.8
3Andrea Iannone01:45.727+0.53314342.2
4Maverick Viñales01:45.813+0.61914337.6
5Scott Redding01:45.819+0.62514338.1
6Andrea Dovizioso01:45.901+0.70712341.6
7Valentino Rossi01:45.992+0.79814335.1
8Daniel Pedrosa01:46.249+1.05514339.3
9Pol Espargaro01:46.345+1.15113336.2
10Danilo Petrucci01:46.689+1.4959338.2
11Yonny Hernandez01:46.849+1.65512336.9
12Stefan Bradl01:47.106+1.91215333.8
13Hector Barbera01:47.170+1.97612334.1
14Jorge Lorenzo01:47.253+2.05913336.0
15Bradley Smith01:47.308+2.11414333.6
16Aleix Espargaro01:47.406+2.21211331.7
17Tito Rabat01:47.436+2.24214330.7
18Eugene Laverty01:47.479+2.28512334.8
19Michele Pirro01:47.601+2.40711333.4
20Jack Miller01:48.014+2.82010335.9
21Alvaro Bautista01:48.198+3.00412331.7
Q1 · 04.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Hector Barbera01:44.494—6333.6
2Andrea Dovizioso01:44.656+0.1626341.4
3Aleix Espargaro01:44.914+0.4207332.9
4Bradley Smith01:45.197+0.7037335.5
5Michele Pirro01:45.538+1.0447335.6
6Yonny Hernandez01:45.690+1.1967340.6
7Eugene Laverty01:45.885+1.3917336.8
8Stefan Bradl01:45.892+1.3987334.5
9Jack Miller01:45.942+1.4488335.9
10Tito Rabat01:46.205+1.7118333.1
11Alvaro Bautista01:46.463+1.9697333.6
Q2 · 04.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:43.589—7338.2
2Jorge Lorenzo01:44.056+0.4677338.9
3Daniel Pedrosa01:44.307+0.7187341.9
4Hector Barbera01:44.322+0.7335338.4
5Valentino Rossi01:44.324+0.7357337.8
6Maverick Viñales01:44.329+0.7407336.3
7Cal Crutchlow01:44.366+0.7776334.5
8Andrea Iannone01:44.458+0.8697344.3
9Danilo Petrucci01:44.911+1.3226338.3
10Andrea Dovizioso01:45.029+1.4406342.4
11Scott Redding01:45.030+1.4417339.1
12Pol Espargaro01:45.218+1.6297335.7
Warm Up · 05.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Valentino Rossi01:45.318—10336.6
2Marc Marquez01:45.460+0.14211338.5
3Andrea Iannone01:45.543+0.2259344.2
4Jorge Lorenzo01:45.545+0.22712339.5
5Pol Espargaro01:45.872+0.55411336.9
6Aleix Espargaro01:46.117+0.7999334.4
7Scott Redding01:46.120+0.80211342.4
8Hector Barbera01:46.456+1.13811331.4
9Bradley Smith01:46.525+1.20711334.5
10Yonny Hernandez01:46.655+1.33711336.8
11Andrea Dovizioso01:46.657+1.33911340.8
12Maverick Viñales01:46.664+1.34611336.8
13Cal Crutchlow01:46.686+1.36810335.1
14Jack Miller01:46.716+1.39811334.7
15Michele Pirro01:47.100+1.78211335.6
16Tito Rabat01:47.131+1.81311333.1
17Alvaro Bautista01:47.177+1.85911332.9
18Danilo Petrucci01:47.247+1.92911335.8
19Stefan Bradl01:47.597+2.27910332.4
20Daniel Pedrosa01:47.603+2.28510337.7
21Eugene Laverty01:47.635+2.31711334.4
Race · 05.06
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Valentino Rossi44:37.5892525
2Marc Marquez+2.6522025
3Daniel Pedrosa+6.3131625
4Maverick Viñales+24.3881325
5Pol Espargaro+29.5461125
6Cal Crutchlow+36.2441025
7Andrea Dovizioso+41.464925
8Alvaro Bautista+42.975825
9Danilo Petrucci+45.337725
10Jack Miller+49.514625
11Hector Barbera+46.669525
12Stefan Bradl+55.133425
13Eugene Laverty+57.974325
14Tito Rabat+60.141225
15Michele Pirro+60.429125
16Scott Redding+76.269025
17Yonny Hernandez+0.000024
RetiredAleix Espargaro018
RetiredAndrea Iannone016
RetiredBradley Smith06
RetiredJorge Lorenzo016

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez128%58%72%82%15%2
Jorge Lorenzo223%56%75%89%7%—
Daniel Pedrosa316%46%68%87%9%3
Hector Barbera411%37%59%81%14%11
Valentino Rossi57%30%56%87%8%1
Maverick Viñales64%21%43%78%14%4
Cal Crutchlow73%14%29%62%29%6
Andrea Iannone82%11%26%62%27%—
Danilo Petrucci91%7%18%59%24%9
Andrea Dovizioso101%6%17%63%12%7
Scott Redding111%4%12%53%17%16
Pol Espargaro121%3%8%43%21%5
Aleix Espargaro130%2%6%40%16%—
Bradley Smith140%2%5%35%11%—
Michele Pirro150%1%3%25%20%15
Yonny Hernandez160%1%2%17%30%17
Eugene Laverty170%0%1%14%14%13
Stefan Bradl180%0%1%9%22%12
Jack Miller190%0%0%5%38%10
Tito Rabat200%0%0%5%20%14
Alvaro Bautista210%0%0%4%19%8

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · AcostaS2 · QuartararoS3 · AcostaS4 · Acosta

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

52/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
44%
Front row on the podium
0.71
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 86% of the time (between 49% and 97%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

49
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
25/25
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
0.885 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P20 to P10.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Jack Miller (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
  • 2025Alex MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
  • 2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2021Miguel OliveiraKTM
  • 2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 25% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20265/2223%
20257/2429%
20243/2313%
20233/2015%
20228/2532%
20216/2129%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet