MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 9 of 18 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2016

Sachsenring Germany

3.671 m · 30 laps · since 1998
15.07 – 17.07.2016
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team47:03.23925
2Cal CrutchlowHondaLCR Honda+9.85720
3Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+11.61316
4Scott ReddingDucatiOCTO Pramac Yakhnich+11.99213
5Andrea IannoneDucatiDucati Team+22.75511
6Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+25.92010
7Jack MillerHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+26.0439
8Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+26.4498
9Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+26.6147
10Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+31.2746
11Eugene LavertyDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+41.2085
12Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+42.1584
13Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+63.1293
14Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+66.0912
15Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+77.6941
16Tito RabatHondaEstrella Galicia 0,0 Marc VDS+0.0000
17Loris BazDucatiAvintia Racing+0.0000
18Yonny HernandezDucatiAspar Team MotoGP+0.0000
DNFDanilo PetrucciDucatiOCTO Pramac YakhnichRetired0
DNFPol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3Retired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 28% ✓Marc Marquez · 28% · from P10.40 / 0.404.5 / 4.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

137
Overtakes
5
Lead changes
5 leaders
6/30
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
9.857 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Cal Crutchlow, from P13 to P2.

Longest battle: Hector Barbera vs Valentino Rossi (9 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:01:34Jump startJump start
Race14:04:00Yonny HernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:16:55Danilo PetrucciCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:21:32Danilo PetrucciRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:28:47Pol EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:33:13Tito RabatCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
— °C
Air
max — °C
—
Humidity
3.1 mm
Rain
— km/h
Wind
gusts — km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 15.07
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:23.702—7293.0
2Marc Marquez01:24.116+0.4147286.1
3Danilo Petrucci01:24.157+0.4557288.3
4Valentino Rossi01:24.279+0.5776288.4
5Andrea Dovizioso01:24.352+0.6506291.4
6Pol Espargaro01:24.487+0.7858287.0
7Maverick Viñales01:24.592+0.8906285.5
8Cal Crutchlow01:25.141+1.4398266.4
9Aleix Espargaro01:25.224+1.5226283.2
10Yonny Hernandez01:25.282+1.5807285.1
11Daniel Pedrosa01:25.313+1.6116276.7
12Jorge Lorenzo01:25.353+1.6515280.5
13Hector Barbera01:25.384+1.6827282.7
14Alvaro Bautista01:25.388+1.68610274.8
15Stefan Bradl01:25.418+1.7166285.0
16Jack Miller01:26.369+2.6674280.7
17Bradley Smith01:26.623+2.9217282.2
18Eugene Laverty01:26.822+3.1207282.7
19Tito Rabat01:27.168+3.4667279.9
20Scott Redding01:27.521+3.8192277.7
—Loris Baz01:29.786+6.0844259.5
FP2 · 15.07
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Maverick Viñales01:22.161—17289.1
2Andrea Iannone01:22.381+0.22020296.9
3Marc Marquez01:22.775+0.61418287.2
4Cal Crutchlow01:22.817+0.65620285.7
5Andrea Dovizioso01:22.930+0.76917295.8
6Aleix Espargaro01:22.953+0.79219286.9
7Hector Barbera01:23.015+0.85420288.3
8Danilo Petrucci01:23.053+0.89219288.6
9Scott Redding01:23.061+0.90022289.0
10Yonny Hernandez01:23.123+0.96216287.2
11Pol Espargaro01:23.400+1.23924289.2
12Bradley Smith01:23.460+1.29920289.2
13Jack Miller01:23.485+1.32417285.2
14Valentino Rossi01:23.534+1.37319287.2
15Daniel Pedrosa01:23.740+1.57918289.9
16Jorge Lorenzo01:23.824+1.66313286.0
17Alvaro Bautista01:23.958+1.79719288.9
18Stefan Bradl01:24.116+1.95515286.8
19Tito Rabat01:24.746+2.58520280.9
20Eugene Laverty01:24.911+2.75012285.7
21Loris Baz01:25.049+2.88818284.6
FP3 · 16.07
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:21.552—23289.6
2Andrea Iannone01:21.659+0.10724297.1
3Maverick Viñales01:21.820+0.26821290.9
4Valentino Rossi01:21.880+0.32825289.7
5Pol Espargaro01:21.910+0.35823290.3
6Daniel Pedrosa01:21.950+0.39822292.7
7Aleix Espargaro01:22.064+0.51221288.9
8Hector Barbera01:22.069+0.51722289.8
9Andrea Dovizioso01:22.072+0.52020294.8
10Yonny Hernandez01:22.127+0.57522287.6
11Cal Crutchlow01:22.190+0.63821289.5
12Danilo Petrucci01:22.226+0.67424289.1
13Jack Miller01:22.308+0.75621286.7
14Bradley Smith01:22.326+0.77424290.3
15Jorge Lorenzo01:22.453+0.90121290.1
16Alvaro Bautista01:22.656+1.10423289.4
17Scott Redding01:22.763+1.21120288.7
18Stefan Bradl01:22.987+1.43522289.6
19Tito Rabat01:23.453+1.90127284.0
20Loris Baz01:24.060+2.50818284.3
21Eugene Laverty01:24.096+2.54419288.4
FP4 · 16.07
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:22.005—18296.8
2Marc Marquez01:22.131+0.12616287.5
3Daniel Pedrosa01:22.132+0.12718292.2
4Maverick Viñales01:22.258+0.25317289.3
5Andrea Dovizioso01:22.527+0.52216295.3
6Valentino Rossi01:22.531+0.52618289.6
7Aleix Espargaro01:22.593+0.58817288.0
8Cal Crutchlow01:22.693+0.68816286.3
9Danilo Petrucci01:22.738+0.73317289.8
10Pol Espargaro01:22.743+0.73816289.7
11Jorge Lorenzo01:22.896+0.89115289.8
12Hector Barbera01:22.922+0.91718286.8
13Bradley Smith01:22.945+0.94017288.3
14Scott Redding01:23.108+1.10315290.2
15Yonny Hernandez01:23.124+1.11914285.9
16Eugene Laverty01:23.124+1.11913288.6
17Jack Miller01:23.182+1.17715287.0
18Alvaro Bautista01:23.267+1.26217288.9
19Stefan Bradl01:23.290+1.28515287.5
20Loris Baz01:24.118+2.11316283.9
21Tito Rabat01:24.233+2.22814281.7
Q1 · 16.07
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Danilo Petrucci01:21.712—8290.9
2Jorge Lorenzo01:21.737+0.0257290.4
3Cal Crutchlow01:21.783+0.07110289.2
4Bradley Smith01:21.994+0.28210289.9
5Scott Redding01:22.236+0.5249290.0
6Jack Miller01:22.382+0.6709286.4
7Stefan Bradl01:22.493+0.7819287.2
8Eugene Laverty01:22.567+0.8558289.0
9Alvaro Bautista01:22.670+0.9589289.6
10Loris Baz01:22.860+1.1487284.5
11Tito Rabat01:23.075+1.3639281.4
Q2 · 16.07
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:21.160—8289.5
2Hector Barbera01:21.572+0.4128289.6
3Valentino Rossi01:21.666+0.5069290.0
4Danilo Petrucci01:21.666+0.5068291.1
5Pol Espargaro01:21.738+0.5787288.7
6Maverick Viñales01:21.784+0.6249289.6
7Andrea Dovizioso01:21.858+0.6989295.0
8Aleix Espargaro01:21.883+0.7239288.1
9Andrea Iannone01:21.890+0.7307295.8
10Daniel Pedrosa01:21.892+0.73210292.6
11Jorge Lorenzo01:22.088+0.9285291.1
12Yonny Hernandez01:22.346+1.1868286.7
Warm Up · 17.07
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Daniel Pedrosa01:33.883—12251.1
2Cal Crutchlow01:33.936+0.05312259.8
3Jack Miller01:34.263+0.38010267.5
4Scott Redding01:34.404+0.52112263.4
5Hector Barbera01:34.410+0.52712263.8
6Pol Espargaro01:34.445+0.56210257.3
7Valentino Rossi01:34.652+0.76912266.9
8Danilo Petrucci01:34.653+0.77010273.5
9Andrea Dovizioso01:35.075+1.19211260.6
10Andrea Iannone01:35.090+1.20712259.1
11Bradley Smith01:35.123+1.24012263.7
12Loris Baz01:35.237+1.35413260.4
13Alvaro Bautista01:35.308+1.42512252.5
14Eugene Laverty01:35.506+1.62312246.5
15Maverick Viñales01:35.575+1.69211265.0
16Tito Rabat01:35.962+2.07911255.2
17Yonny Hernandez01:36.556+2.6739256.6
18Marc Marquez01:36.800+2.9177252.0
19Aleix Espargaro01:37.451+3.5689252.2
20Jorge Lorenzo01:37.794+3.91112252.5
21Stefan Bradl01:39.767+5.8842237.4
Race · 17.07
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Marc Marquez47:03.2392530
2Cal Crutchlow+9.8572030
3Andrea Dovizioso+11.6131630
4Scott Redding+11.9921330
5Andrea Iannone+22.7551130
6Daniel Pedrosa+25.9201030
7Jack Miller+26.043930
8Valentino Rossi+26.449830
9Hector Barbera+26.614730
10Alvaro Bautista+31.274630
11Eugene Laverty+41.208530
12Maverick Viñales+42.158430
13Bradley Smith+63.129330
14Aleix Espargaro+66.091230
15Jorge Lorenzo+77.694130
16Tito Rabat+0.000029
17Loris Baz+0.000028
18Yonny Hernandez+0.000027
RetiredDanilo Petrucci012
RetiredPol Espargaro017

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceStefan Bradl17——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez128%58%72%82%15%1
Hector Barbera220%52%69%83%14%9
Valentino Rossi316%47%68%87%9%8
Danilo Petrucci411%33%51%71%25%—
Pol Espargaro57%27%47%73%20%—
Maverick Viñales66%23%45%79%13%12
Andrea Dovizioso75%19%40%78%13%3
Aleix Espargaro83%12%30%70%18%14
Andrea Iannone92%7%18%56%28%5
Daniel Pedrosa101%7%18%66%9%6
Jorge Lorenzo111%6%14%59%8%15
Yonny Hernandez120%3%8%39%30%18
Cal Crutchlow130%2%5%33%30%2
Bradley Smith140%2%6%36%12%13
Scott Redding150%1%3%28%16%4
Jack Miller160%1%2%17%36%7
Eugene Laverty170%0%1%16%13%11
Alvaro Bautista180%0%1%10%20%10
Loris Baz190%0%1%7%25%17
Tito Rabat200%0%0%6%17%16
Stefan Bradl210%0%0%4%22%—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · AcostaS2 · M. MarquezS3 · MartinS4 · Oliveira

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 3,649 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

95/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
38%
Front row on the podium
0.82
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2015 edition

49
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
26/30
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
2.226 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P15 to P9.

Longest battle: Alvaro Bautista vs Jack Miller (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2021Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20265/2025%
20258/1844%
20242/229%
20232/1911%
20227/2330%
20213/2214%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet