MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
ca es
Round 18 of 18 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2015

Circuit Ricardo Tormo Spain

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999
06.11 – 08.11.2015
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP45:59.36425
2Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+0.26320
3Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+0.65416
4Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+19.78913
5Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+26.00411
6Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+28.83510
7Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+28.8869
8Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+34.2228
9Cal CrutchlowHondaCWM LCR Honda+35.9247
10Danilo PetrucciDucatiPramac Racing+39.5796
11Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+39.7465
12Michele PirroDucatiDucati Team+47.0534
13Yonny HernandezDucatiPramac Racing+54.0813
14Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+56.6462
15Scott ReddingHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+57.2781
16Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+57.3630
17Nicky HaydenHondaAspar MotoGP Team+58.7420
18Stefan BradlApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+59.0860
19Loris BazYamaha ForwardForward Racing+64.3390
20Toni EliasYamaha ForwardForward Racing+64.4130
21Jack MillerHondaCWM LCR Honda+65.2120
22Anthony WestHondaAB Motoracing+87.2810
DNFAndrea IannoneDucatiDucati TeamRetired0
DNFBroc ParkesARTOcto IodaRacing TeamRetired0
DNFEugene LavertyHondaAspar MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFMike Di MeglioDucatiAvintia RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Jorge Lorenzo · 33% ✓Jorge Lorenzo · 33% · from P10.73 / 0.733.2 / 3.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

56
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
30/30
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Lorenzo
0.263 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P26 to P4.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (30 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race13:58:49Cal CrutchlowPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:02:50Jump startJump start
Race14:05:15Andrea IannoneCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:34:16Broc ParkesRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:37:08Eugene LavertyRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:39:42Mike Di MeglioRetiredRetired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

RiderGrid→Pos.Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi26→4+14.9
Pol Espargaro8→5+2.3
Jorge Lorenzo1→1+1.8
Jack Miller20→21−6.0
Loris Baz15→19−7.2
Stefan Bradl13→18−7.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
19.3 °C
Air
max 19.4 °C
72%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
7 km/h
Wind
gusts 21 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 06.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:31.250—20327.5
2Jorge Lorenzo01:31.434+0.18417321.4
3Daniel Pedrosa01:31.553+0.30319330.5
4Andrea Dovizioso01:31.642+0.39217328.7
5Valentino Rossi01:31.665+0.41521318.3
6Pol Espargaro01:31.892+0.64220322.2
7Andrea Iannone01:32.192+0.94220332.4
8Cal Crutchlow01:32.260+1.01019321.1
9Aleix Espargaro01:32.359+1.10919317.3
10Yonny Hernandez01:32.412+1.16218324.7
11Stefan Bradl01:32.514+1.26419315.7
12Danilo Petrucci01:32.574+1.32421321.4
13Michele Pirro01:32.724+1.47419327.5
14Alvaro Bautista01:32.725+1.47518314.9
15Mike Di Meglio01:32.797+1.54717316.2
16Maverick Viñales01:32.801+1.55116315.7
17Bradley Smith01:32.841+1.59121320.8
18Hector Barbera01:32.927+1.67715320.9
19Nicky Hayden01:32.978+1.72819310.7
20Jack Miller01:33.049+1.79919316.9
21Eugene Laverty01:33.097+1.84722311.2
22Scott Redding01:33.143+1.89319318.5
23Loris Baz01:33.211+1.96118309.4
24Toni Elias01:33.657+2.40721318.4
25Anthony West01:33.837+2.58720312.0
26Broc Parkes01:35.290+4.04017303.5
FP2 · 06.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:31.111—19318.4
2Daniel Pedrosa01:31.377+0.26621326.3
3Andrea Iannone01:31.444+0.33322329.8
4Valentino Rossi01:31.475+0.36420317.7
5Marc Marquez01:31.481+0.37020323.3
6Danilo Petrucci01:31.575+0.46419321.2
7Pol Espargaro01:31.674+0.56317320.4
8Aleix Espargaro01:31.678+0.56718314.8
9Cal Crutchlow01:31.803+0.69219321.4
10Maverick Viñales01:31.986+0.87519318.3
11Hector Barbera01:32.044+0.93316322.8
12Michele Pirro01:32.399+1.28816328.4
13Yonny Hernandez01:32.464+1.35318324.0
14Andrea Dovizioso01:32.494+1.38318329.5
15Bradley Smith01:32.508+1.39722321.1
16Nicky Hayden01:32.595+1.48418313.7
17Loris Baz01:32.597+1.48616311.8
18Jack Miller01:32.599+1.48821317.1
19Stefan Bradl01:32.842+1.73120314.1
20Alvaro Bautista01:32.945+1.83420314.1
21Scott Redding01:33.238+2.12719316.2
22Mike Di Meglio01:33.268+2.15718316.6
23Toni Elias01:33.411+2.30018316.6
24Eugene Laverty01:33.415+2.30420315.2
25Anthony West01:33.838+2.72720311.9
26Broc Parkes01:34.839+3.72815301.7
FP3 · 07.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:30.925—22334.2
2Valentino Rossi01:30.988+0.06322323.8
3Marc Marquez01:31.034+0.10920327.1
4Bradley Smith01:31.134+0.20921321.5
5Jorge Lorenzo01:31.146+0.22117320.8
6Daniel Pedrosa01:31.163+0.23823329.5
7Pol Espargaro01:31.164+0.23918324.6
8Andrea Dovizioso01:31.347+0.42217328.9
9Cal Crutchlow01:31.367+0.44221323.3
10Danilo Petrucci01:31.523+0.59821325.2
11Aleix Espargaro01:31.606+0.68119316.2
12Hector Barbera01:31.695+0.77016322.2
13Maverick Viñales01:31.824+0.89919320.4
14Yonny Hernandez01:32.033+1.10819323.5
15Stefan Bradl01:32.102+1.17721318.1
16Alvaro Bautista01:32.104+1.17918318.0
17Michele Pirro01:32.106+1.18119328.4
18Jack Miller01:32.227+1.30220317.8
19Scott Redding01:32.405+1.48019319.7
20Loris Baz01:32.431+1.50618315.2
21Mike Di Meglio01:32.450+1.52517319.1
22Nicky Hayden01:32.556+1.63118311.5
23Eugene Laverty01:32.763+1.83820318.1
24Toni Elias01:32.933+2.00821320.7
25Anthony West01:33.330+2.40519315.2
26Broc Parkes01:34.139+3.21417302.2
FP4 · 07.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:31.203—15323.7
2Jorge Lorenzo01:31.347+0.14414327.1
3Daniel Pedrosa01:31.388+0.18516326.3
4Valentino Rossi01:31.436+0.23316321.4
5Andrea Iannone01:31.746+0.54313333.6
6Pol Espargaro01:31.772+0.56915324.7
7Danilo Petrucci01:31.944+0.74116320.7
8Cal Crutchlow01:32.035+0.83215322.5
9Maverick Viñales01:32.129+0.92614316.6
10Aleix Espargaro01:32.293+1.09014316.6
11Bradley Smith01:32.311+1.10814320.9
12Hector Barbera01:32.353+1.15015320.7
13Andrea Dovizioso01:32.433+1.23011326.0
14Scott Redding01:32.539+1.33613320.5
15Michele Pirro01:32.696+1.49316326.6
16Yonny Hernandez01:32.742+1.53914322.0
17Stefan Bradl01:32.877+1.67414319.1
18Jack Miller01:32.995+1.79211319.4
19Loris Baz01:33.125+1.92214310.4
20Alvaro Bautista01:33.169+1.96614312.2
21Eugene Laverty01:33.197+1.99410314.2
22Mike Di Meglio01:33.255+2.05213318.1
23Nicky Hayden01:33.306+2.10314312.7
24Toni Elias01:33.484+2.28113317.6
25Anthony West01:33.979+2.77615311.1
26Broc Parkes01:34.664+3.46113302.9
Q1 · 07.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Aleix Espargaro01:31.409—7313.5
2Maverick Viñales01:31.509+0.1005317.7
3Michele Pirro01:31.780+0.3717325.3
4Stefan Bradl01:31.824+0.4158318.8
5Hector Barbera01:31.851+0.4427320.5
6Loris Baz01:31.856+0.4476312.3
7Nicky Hayden01:32.083+0.6748312.3
8Yonny Hernandez01:32.142+0.7338320.8
9Alvaro Bautista01:32.282+0.8738311.0
10Scott Redding01:32.448+1.0398315.0
11Jack Miller01:32.564+1.1558316.4
12Mike Di Meglio01:32.716+1.3078316.3
13Anthony West01:33.049+1.6408311.1
14Eugene Laverty01:33.066+1.6576309.9
15Toni Elias01:33.092+1.6838322.0
16Broc Parkes01:33.577+2.1688301.7
Q2 · 07.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Jorge Lorenzo01:30.011—8320.9
2Marc Marquez01:30.499+0.4888322.1
3Daniel Pedrosa01:30.516+0.5058323.1
4Aleix Espargaro01:30.917+0.9067312.5
5Cal Crutchlow01:30.948+0.9377319.4
6Bradley Smith01:31.012+1.0019322.0
7Andrea Iannone01:31.056+1.0459329.8
8Pol Espargaro01:31.080+1.0698321.5
9Andrea Dovizioso01:31.245+1.2348327.2
10Danilo Petrucci01:31.292+1.2818323.0
11Maverick Viñales01:31.340+1.3297317.4
12Valentino Rossi01:31.471+1.4606319.1
Warm Up · 08.11
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:31.062—12322.1
2Jorge Lorenzo01:31.383+0.32111322.0
3Pol Espargaro01:31.597+0.53511322.0
4Valentino Rossi01:31.618+0.55613321.8
5Daniel Pedrosa01:31.713+0.65112324.7
6Cal Crutchlow01:31.788+0.72611319.1
7Andrea Iannone01:31.854+0.79213331.4
8Bradley Smith01:31.992+0.93013320.0
9Aleix Espargaro01:32.221+1.15912317.4
10Andrea Dovizioso01:32.317+1.25512330.4
11Maverick Viñales01:32.327+1.26513318.4
12Yonny Hernandez01:32.548+1.48613326.3
13Michele Pirro01:32.605+1.54312326.8
14Scott Redding01:32.624+1.56212319.2
15Stefan Bradl01:32.757+1.69513318.5
16Mike Di Meglio01:32.914+1.85210319.7
17Danilo Petrucci01:32.956+1.89410321.7
18Hector Barbera01:32.998+1.93613321.7
19Alvaro Bautista01:33.177+2.11513315.3
20Loris Baz01:33.227+2.16513311.4
21Nicky Hayden01:33.240+2.17813309.0
22Jack Miller01:33.313+2.2517314.4
23Eugene Laverty01:33.502+2.44013315.0
24Toni Elias01:33.521+2.45912323.3
25Anthony West01:34.047+2.98513312.3
26Broc Parkes01:34.750+3.6889301.0
Race · 08.11
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Jorge Lorenzo45:59.3642530
2Marc Marquez+0.2632030
3Daniel Pedrosa+0.6541630
4Valentino Rossi+19.7891330
5Pol Espargaro+26.0041130
6Bradley Smith+28.8351030
7Andrea Dovizioso+28.886930
8Aleix Espargaro+34.222830
9Cal Crutchlow+35.924730
10Danilo Petrucci+39.579630
11Maverick Viñales+39.746530
12Michele Pirro+47.053430
13Yonny Hernandez+54.081330
14Alvaro Bautista+56.646230
15Scott Redding+57.278130
16Hector Barbera+57.363030
17Nicky Hayden+58.742030
18Stefan Bradl+59.086030
19Loris Baz+64.339030
20Toni Elias+64.413030
21Jack Miller+65.212030
22Anthony West+87.281030
RetiredAndrea Iannone02
RetiredBroc Parkes021
RetiredEugene Laverty023
RetiredMike Di Meglio024

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pred.RiderP(through)Actual in Q1
1Aleix Espargaro71%1 ✓
2Hector Barbera50%5
3Maverick Viñales37%2 ✓
4Yonny Hernandez17%8
5Stefan Bradl14%4
6Alvaro Bautista4%9
7Michele Pirro8%3
8Jack Miller0%11
9Scott Redding0%10
10Loris Baz0%6
11Mike Di Meglio0%12
12Nicky Hayden0%7
13Eugene Laverty0%14
14Toni Elias0%15
15Anthony West0%13
16Broc Parkes—16

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceValentino Rossi12——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Jorge Lorenzo133%67%82%92%7%1
Marc Marquez220%52%67%81%17%2
Daniel Pedrosa315%49%70%87%9%3
Aleix Espargaro411%37%57%78%17%8
Cal Crutchlow56%23%43%67%28%9
Bradley Smith66%24%47%82%10%6
Andrea Iannone73%16%34%67%23%—
Pol Espargaro82%10%26%62%25%5
Andrea Dovizioso92%9%22%71%10%7
Danilo Petrucci101%5%16%56%25%10
Maverick Viñales111%4%12%57%14%11
Michele Pirro120%2%8%45%22%12
Stefan Bradl130%1%6%36%23%18
Hector Barbera140%1%4%32%15%16
Loris Baz150%1%3%23%19%19
Nicky Hayden160%1%2%21%15%17
Yonny Hernandez170%0%1%12%29%13
Alvaro Bautista180%0%1%10%19%14
Scott Redding190%0%1%7%13%15
Jack Miller200%0%0%4%35%21
Mike Di Meglio210%0%0%3%17%—
Anthony West220%0%0%3%14%22
Eugene Laverty230%0%0%2%14%—
Toni Elias240%0%0%1%17%20
Broc Parkes250%0%0%1%13%—
Valentino Rossi260%0%0%1%7%4

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · MartinS2 · AcostaS3 · AcostaS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100
Position index
43%
Pole wins
71%
Front row on the podium
0.83
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2014 edition

124
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
20/30
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
3.516 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P21 to P12.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Cal Crutchlow (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
  • 2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20257/2429%
20237/2133%
20227/2429%
20212/2010%
20203/2114%
20197/2232%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet