MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 1 of 18 Aftermath

Qatar Grand Prix 2015

Lusail International Circuit Qatar

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004
26.03 – 29.03.2015
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP42:35.71725
2Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+0.17420
3Andrea IannoneDucatiDucati Team+2.25016
4Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+2.70713
5Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+7.03611
6Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+10.75510
7Cal CrutchlowHondaCWM LCR Honda+12.3849
8Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+12.9148
9Pol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+13.0317
10Yonny HernandezDucatiPramac Racing+17.4356
11Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+19.9015
12Danilo PetrucciDucatiPramac Racing+24.4324
13Scott ReddingHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDS+32.0323
14Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+33.4632
15Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+33.6251
16Stefan BradlYamaha ForwardAthinà Forward Racing+33.9440
17Nicky HaydenHondaAspar MotoGP Team+38.9700
18Eugene LavertyHondaAspar MotoGP Team+46.5700
19Mike Di MeglioDucatiAvintia Racing+59.2110
20Alex De AngelisARTOcto IodaRacing Team+74.9810
21Marco MelandriApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+108.1430
22Loris BazYamaha ForwardAthinà Forward Racing+0.0000
DNFAlvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team GresiniOut on lap 10
DNFJack MillerHondaCWM LCR HondaRetired0
DNFKarel AbrahamHondaAB MotoracingRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Andrea Dovizioso · 43%Valentino Rossi · 2% · from P80.91 / 0.912.5 / 2.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

78
Overtakes
7
Lead changes
3 leaders
2/22
Laps led by the winner
Valentino Rossi
0.174 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P8 to P1.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jorge Lorenzo (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race21:02:46Jump startJump start
Race21:03:44Alvaro BautistaRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race21:44:03Jack MillerCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race21:44:03Karel AbrahamCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
22.4 °C
Air
max 22.8 °C
77%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
9 km/h
Wind
gusts 17 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 26.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:55.281—15343.7
2Daniel Pedrosa01:55.357+0.07615347.3
3Aleix Espargaro01:55.685+0.40413328.8
4Jorge Lorenzo01:55.698+0.41717338.4
5Cal Crutchlow01:55.818+0.53716340.2
6Danilo Petrucci01:55.939+0.65815341.2
7Andrea Dovizioso01:55.980+0.69917345.0
8Yonny Hernandez01:56.139+0.85814343.5
9Valentino Rossi01:56.162+0.88118338.4
10Andrea Iannone01:56.315+1.03417344.4
11Pol Espargaro01:56.361+1.08018344.6
12Scott Redding01:56.374+1.09316338.1
13Bradley Smith01:56.428+1.14720343.7
14Stefan Bradl01:56.577+1.29618336.2
15Karel Abraham01:56.651+1.37015334.1
16Alex De Angelis01:56.768+1.48716326.7
17Maverick Viñales01:56.922+1.64114330.6
18Hector Barbera01:56.957+1.67612340.1
19Jack Miller01:56.983+1.70216338.4
20Loris Baz01:57.031+1.75015332.9
21Nicky Hayden01:57.052+1.77114331.4
22Alvaro Bautista01:57.130+1.84916331.8
23Eugene Laverty01:57.224+1.94317336.3
24Mike Di Meglio01:57.612+2.33115338.4
25Marco Melandri01:59.579+4.29814333.6
FP2 · 27.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:54.828—16344.7
2Daniel Pedrosa01:55.275+0.44716346.8
3Andrea Dovizioso01:55.366+0.53817344.7
4Cal Crutchlow01:55.397+0.56916342.3
5Andrea Iannone01:55.404+0.57616344.1
6Jorge Lorenzo01:55.609+0.78117342.6
7Valentino Rossi01:55.618+0.79019337.1
8Mike Di Meglio01:55.707+0.87912343.5
9Bradley Smith01:55.741+0.91318343.6
10Hector Barbera01:55.838+1.01016341.9
11Aleix Espargaro01:55.847+1.01915330.0
12Yonny Hernandez01:55.970+1.14216345.7
13Pol Espargaro01:56.004+1.17615344.6
14Maverick Viñales01:56.036+1.20815333.1
15Nicky Hayden01:56.086+1.25817335.0
16Scott Redding01:56.133+1.30515340.9
17Karel Abraham01:56.178+1.35015335.6
18Stefan Bradl01:56.181+1.35317338.4
19Eugene Laverty01:56.333+1.50516333.7
20Jack Miller01:56.578+1.75015336.6
21Danilo Petrucci01:56.657+1.82917342.6
22Loris Baz01:56.966+2.13815331.8
23Alex De Angelis01:57.509+2.68118327.7
24Alvaro Bautista01:57.868+3.04012335.4
25Marco Melandri01:58.542+3.71412334.6
FP3 · 27.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:54.822—16345.0
2Cal Crutchlow01:54.918+0.09616339.7
3Andrea Iannone01:54.992+0.17014345.0
4Aleix Espargaro01:54.994+0.17213331.1
5Daniel Pedrosa01:55.024+0.20216345.4
6Andrea Dovizioso01:55.044+0.22216344.1
7Yonny Hernandez01:55.102+0.28014344.2
8Jorge Lorenzo01:55.108+0.28618335.2
9Valentino Rossi01:55.192+0.37017336.8
10Pol Espargaro01:55.328+0.50617340.2
11Hector Barbera01:55.396+0.57412342.9
12Scott Redding01:55.447+0.62517341.6
13Maverick Viñales01:55.676+0.85412333.1
14Stefan Bradl01:55.694+0.87217335.5
15Danilo Petrucci01:55.777+0.95517341.6
16Nicky Hayden01:55.789+0.96716330.8
17Mike Di Meglio01:55.866+1.04412341.3
18Bradley Smith01:55.905+1.08319339.9
19Eugene Laverty01:55.913+1.09117331.6
20Karel Abraham01:56.080+1.25816332.3
21Jack Miller01:56.162+1.34015331.1
22Loris Baz01:57.072+2.2507332.3
23Alvaro Bautista01:57.107+2.28514329.8
24Alex De Angelis01:57.509+2.68715323.5
25Marco Melandri01:59.339+4.51713329.9
FP4 · 28.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone01:55.088—12343.4
2Andrea Dovizioso01:55.267+0.17911341.2
3Marc Marquez01:55.357+0.26913345.6
4Jorge Lorenzo01:55.763+0.67513335.1
5Valentino Rossi01:55.828+0.74014337.3
6Pol Espargaro01:55.850+0.76213341.7
7Bradley Smith01:55.900+0.81213340.6
8Cal Crutchlow01:55.931+0.84312340.3
9Aleix Espargaro01:55.963+0.87510332.2
10Nicky Hayden01:55.967+0.87911331.1
11Yonny Hernandez01:56.057+0.9699343.7
12Daniel Pedrosa01:56.062+0.97412344.7
13Danilo Petrucci01:56.097+1.00911340.3
14Maverick Viñales01:56.291+1.20312333.1
15Hector Barbera01:56.327+1.23910340.0
16Scott Redding01:56.367+1.27911336.7
17Jack Miller01:56.470+1.38211334.0
18Stefan Bradl01:56.533+1.4459334.0
19Karel Abraham01:56.711+1.62311332.2
20Mike Di Meglio01:56.855+1.76712338.9
21Eugene Laverty01:56.873+1.78511332.1
22Loris Baz01:57.346+2.2589330.5
23Alex De Angelis01:57.641+2.55311322.3
24Alvaro Bautista01:57.865+2.77711326.9
25Marco Melandri01:58.986+3.8989330.8
Q1 · 28.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Danilo Petrucci01:55.094—5336.3
2Bradley Smith01:55.235+0.1417339.0
3Maverick Viñales01:55.246+0.1527332.8
4Scott Redding01:55.428+0.3346333.6
5Hector Barbera01:55.604+0.5106341.1
6Mike Di Meglio01:55.729+0.6356340.1
7Nicky Hayden01:55.756+0.6627330.2
8Stefan Bradl01:55.791+0.6977332.0
9Eugene Laverty01:55.848+0.7547330.9
10Karel Abraham01:55.892+0.7987329.3
11Alvaro Bautista01:56.187+1.0936324.8
12Jack Miller01:56.287+1.1936336.1
13Loris Baz01:56.454+1.3607328.5
14Alex De Angelis01:56.793+1.6997325.5
15Marco Melandri01:57.934+2.8406332.6
Q2 · 28.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Dovizioso01:54.113—6337.3
2Daniel Pedrosa01:54.330+0.2177340.1
3Marc Marquez01:54.437+0.3247339.9
4Andrea Iannone01:54.521+0.4087339.0
5Yonny Hernandez01:54.675+0.5627346.4
6Jorge Lorenzo01:54.711+0.5987332.0
7Bradley Smith01:54.732+0.6197337.2
8Valentino Rossi01:54.851+0.7387333.4
9Danilo Petrucci01:54.876+0.7636342.7
10Pol Espargaro01:55.004+0.8917335.4
11Aleix Espargaro01:55.035+0.9226327.4
12Cal Crutchlow01:55.123+1.0105335.2
Warm Up · 29.03
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:55.819—9344.9
2Valentino Rossi01:55.843+0.02411338.4
3Andrea Dovizioso01:55.924+0.10510344.1
4Andrea Iannone01:55.958+0.1399343.1
5Jorge Lorenzo01:55.967+0.1489338.4
6Daniel Pedrosa01:56.020+0.2019343.9
7Pol Espargaro01:56.153+0.3348339.7
8Aleix Espargaro01:56.188+0.3698329.4
9Bradley Smith01:56.204+0.38510343.9
10Yonny Hernandez01:56.361+0.54210342.3
11Cal Crutchlow01:56.385+0.56610340.8
12Maverick Viñales01:56.750+0.93110328.8
13Danilo Petrucci01:56.753+0.93410342.0
14Karel Abraham01:56.812+0.99310333.9
15Scott Redding01:57.001+1.18210335.0
16Hector Barbera01:57.033+1.21410340.4
17Loris Baz01:57.365+1.54610328.8
18Nicky Hayden01:57.510+1.6919332.1
19Alex De Angelis01:57.633+1.81410322.1
20Eugene Laverty01:57.645+1.82610333.8
21Jack Miller01:57.835+2.0169332.6
22Mike Di Meglio01:57.836+2.0177339.7
23Alvaro Bautista01:57.999+2.18010327.0
24Stefan Bradl01:58.142+2.3238335.5
25Marco Melandri01:59.460+3.6419331.2
Race · 29.03
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Valentino Rossi42:35.7172522
2Andrea Dovizioso+0.1742022
3Andrea Iannone+2.2501622
4Jorge Lorenzo+2.7071322
5Marc Marquez+7.0361122
6Daniel Pedrosa+10.7551022
7Cal Crutchlow+12.384922
8Bradley Smith+12.914822
9Pol Espargaro+13.031722
10Yonny Hernandez+17.435622
11Aleix Espargaro+19.901522
12Danilo Petrucci+24.432422
13Scott Redding+32.032322
14Maverick Viñales+33.463222
15Hector Barbera+33.625122
16Stefan Bradl+33.944022
17Nicky Hayden+38.970022
18Eugene Laverty+46.570022
19Mike Di Meglio+59.211022
20Alex De Angelis+74.981022
21Marco Melandri+108.143022
22Loris Baz+0.000019
Out on lap 1Alvaro Bautista00
RetiredJack Miller021
RetiredKarel Abraham021

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pred.RiderP(through)Actual in Q1
1Hector Barbera80%5
2Scott Redding46%4
3Maverick Viñales37%3
4Stefan Bradl14%8
5Mike Di Meglio14%6
6Bradley Smith0%2 ✓
7Danilo Petrucci9%1 ✓
8Nicky Hayden0%7
9Eugene Laverty0%9
10Karel Abraham0%10
11Jack Miller0%12
12Alex De Angelis0%14
13Loris Baz0%13
14Alvaro Bautista0%11
15Marco Melandri—15

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Andrea Dovizioso143%77%88%91%8%2
Daniel Pedrosa223%67%82%88%11%6
Marc Marquez313%56%79%89%10%5
Andrea Iannone47%31%57%70%29%3
Yonny Hernandez54%20%47%69%28%10
Jorge Lorenzo64%19%52%92%7%4
Bradley Smith72%12%35%83%15%8
Valentino Rossi82%7%25%85%8%1
Danilo Petrucci91%4%11%61%29%12
Pol Espargaro101%2%8%61%21%9
Aleix Espargaro110%2%6%56%17%11
Cal Crutchlow120%1%4%40%28%7
Maverick Viñales130%1%3%33%19%14
Scott Redding140%1%2%29%9%13
Hector Barbera150%0%1%19%17%15
Mike Di Meglio160%0%1%13%17%19
Nicky Hayden170%0%1%7%14%17
Stefan Bradl180%0%0%5%21%16
Eugene Laverty190%0%0%3%19%18
Karel Abraham200%0%0%2%30%—
Alvaro Bautista210%0%0%1%21%—
Jack Miller220%0%0%1%19%—
Loris Baz230%0%0%1%19%22
Alex De Angelis240%0%0%0%12%20
Marco Melandri250%0%0%0%14%21

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · M. MarquezS2 · MorbidelliS3 · M. MarquezS4 · Bagnaia

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

57/100
Position index
14%
Pole wins
48%
Front row on the podium
0.77
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

2014 edition

51
Overtakes
2
Lead changes
3 leaders
9/22
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
0.259 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P10 to P2.

Longest battle: Michele Pirro vs Nicky Hayden (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
  • 2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
  • 2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
  • 2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20254/2218%
20241/225%
20232/2110%
20226/2425%
20213/2214%
20193/2313%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet