MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 2 of 18 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2015

Circuit Of The Americas United States

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013
10.04 – 12.04.2015
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team43:47.15025
2Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+2.35420
3Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+3.12016
4Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+6.68213
5Andrea IannoneDucatiDucati Team+7.58411
6Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+10.55710
7Cal CrutchlowHondaCWM LCR Honda+16.9679
8Aleix EspargaroSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+19.0258
9Maverick ViñalesSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTAR+38.5707
10Danilo PetrucciDucatiPramac Racing+41.7966
11Hiroshi AoyamaHondaRepsol Honda Team+47.1995
12Hector BarberaDucatiAvintia Racing+47.3394
13Nicky HaydenHondaAspar MotoGP Team+56.4843
14Jack MillerHondaCWM LCR Honda+56.7312
15Alvaro BautistaApriliaAprilia Racing Team Gresini+57.3721
16Eugene LavertyHondaAspar MotoGP Team+58.8980
17Loris BazYamaha ForwardAthinà Forward Racing+68.7870
18Alex De AngelisARTOcto IodaRacing Team+82.2360
DNFKarel AbrahamHondaAB MotoracingRetired0
DNFMarco MelandriApriliaAprilia Racing Team GresiniRetired0
DNFMike Di MeglioDucatiAvintia RacingRetired0
DNFPol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3Out on lap 10
DNFScott ReddingHondaEG 0,0 Marc VDSRetired0
DNFStefan BradlYamaha ForwardAthinà Forward RacingRetired0
DNFYonny HernandezDucatiPramac RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)Marc Marquez · 30% ✓Marc Marquez · 30% · from P10.95 / 0.951.7 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

59
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
17/21
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
2.354 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Nicky Hayden, from P22 to P13.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Valentino Rossi (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race14:39:22Scott ReddingCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:39:22Pol EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:39:43Jump startJump start
Race14:41:45Mike Di MeglioCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:45:11Stefan BradlCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:51:21Scott ReddingRetiredRetired
Race14:53:07Yonny HernandezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:53:47Mike Di MeglioCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race15:00:22Marco MelandriRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race15:12:32Karel AbrahamRetiredEntered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

RiderGrid→Pos.Beats the grid
Nicky Hayden22→13+3.3
Hiroshi Aoyama18→11+2.8
Bradley Smith10→6+2.6
Cal Crutchlow5→7−1.6
Loris Baz20→17−2.0
Eugene Laverty17→16−2.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
25.8 °C
Air
max 25.9 °C
68%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
14 km/h
Wind
gusts 33 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 10.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Dovizioso02:19.402—15328.9
2Marc Marquez02:19.864+0.46215329.0
3Scott Redding02:20.487+1.08518328.8
4Valentino Rossi02:20.593+1.19116323.6
5Danilo Petrucci02:20.665+1.26317324.1
6Bradley Smith02:20.951+1.54915321.5
7Pol Espargaro02:20.983+1.58116326.8
8Cal Crutchlow02:21.300+1.89814327.5
9Jorge Lorenzo02:21.486+2.08415325.8
10Yonny Hernandez02:21.625+2.22315327.1
11Alvaro Bautista02:22.018+2.61614316.2
12Hiroshi Aoyama02:22.387+2.98517333.6
13Jack Miller02:22.391+2.98915321.6
14Stefan Bradl02:22.498+3.09617323.0
15Nicky Hayden02:22.542+3.14015312.5
16Aleix Espargaro02:22.571+3.16915316.8
17Mike Di Meglio02:22.663+3.26115321.3
18Hector Barbera02:22.716+3.31415320.2
19Andrea Iannone02:22.741+3.33913322.5
20Loris Baz02:24.178+4.77618313.4
21Eugene Laverty02:24.851+5.44916317.3
22Maverick Viñales02:25.024+5.62213317.4
23Marco Melandri02:25.141+5.73915318.8
24Alex De Angelis02:25.160+5.75814311.5
25Karel Abraham02:25.405+6.00315319.3
FP2 · 10.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez02:04.835—10343.5
2Cal Crutchlow02:05.162+0.32712340.6
3Andrea Iannone02:05.190+0.35511342.4
4Aleix Espargaro02:05.564+0.72911329.8
5Andrea Dovizioso02:05.646+0.81110339.8
6Valentino Rossi02:05.691+0.85613335.9
7Pol Espargaro02:05.840+1.00512336.9
8Stefan Bradl02:05.990+1.1559329.8
9Yonny Hernandez02:06.092+1.2579338.4
10Bradley Smith02:06.134+1.2997336.9
11Jorge Lorenzo02:06.174+1.33911333.0
12Scott Redding02:06.216+1.3819331.5
13Danilo Petrucci02:06.294+1.45913339.1
14Mike Di Meglio02:06.591+1.7567336.3
15Maverick Viñales02:07.011+2.1769329.2
16Hiroshi Aoyama02:07.268+2.43312344.2
17Alvaro Bautista02:07.419+2.58410325.3
18Hector Barbera02:07.581+2.74613339.4
19Jack Miller02:07.916+3.08114328.5
20Eugene Laverty02:07.968+3.1339330.7
21Karel Abraham02:08.266+3.43113327.6
22Nicky Hayden02:08.762+3.92714327.1
23Loris Baz02:09.372+4.53712326.5
24Marco Melandri02:11.258+6.42312329.1
25Alex De Angelis02:12.409+7.5749322.4
FP3 · 11.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez02:03.302—12342.3
2Cal Crutchlow02:03.490+0.18813338.6
3Jorge Lorenzo02:03.647+0.34515333.1
4Valentino Rossi02:03.647+0.34516335.7
5Bradley Smith02:03.666+0.36415340.5
6Pol Espargaro02:03.773+0.47117340.8
7Aleix Espargaro02:03.790+0.48813328.1
8Andrea Dovizioso02:03.850+0.54814339.5
9Scott Redding02:03.946+0.64416335.5
10Danilo Petrucci02:04.030+0.72814337.3
11Andrea Iannone02:04.343+1.04117339.5
12Maverick Viñales02:04.425+1.12315330.4
13Stefan Bradl02:04.429+1.12716333.7
14Yonny Hernandez02:04.845+1.54312337.1
15Hector Barbera02:04.876+1.57412336.2
16Mike Di Meglio02:05.048+1.74613337.8
17Loris Baz02:05.931+2.62914329.9
18Hiroshi Aoyama02:05.959+2.65715341.9
19Alvaro Bautista02:06.225+2.92315327.9
20Jack Miller02:06.394+3.09212331.5
21Karel Abraham02:06.563+3.26114328.3
22Eugene Laverty02:06.636+3.33416329.9
23Nicky Hayden02:06.913+3.61116326.0
24Alex De Angelis02:07.467+4.16514320.5
25Marco Melandri02:07.669+4.36715328.7
FP4 · 11.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez02:03.548—12342.0
2Jorge Lorenzo02:03.903+0.35511333.5
3Andrea Dovizioso02:04.255+0.70711338.0
4Valentino Rossi02:04.342+0.79412336.2
5Andrea Iannone02:04.366+0.81811337.0
6Cal Crutchlow02:04.481+0.93311339.3
7Scott Redding02:04.617+1.06911335.2
8Bradley Smith02:04.698+1.15011338.6
9Yonny Hernandez02:04.700+1.1529340.0
10Aleix Espargaro02:04.764+1.21610324.9
11Pol Espargaro02:04.928+1.38012338.0
12Danilo Petrucci02:05.274+1.72610334.4
13Mike Di Meglio02:05.281+1.73312335.7
14Maverick Viñales02:05.457+1.90911326.1
15Stefan Bradl02:05.549+2.00111330.2
16Jack Miller02:05.689+2.14110333.8
17Hector Barbera02:05.756+2.2089338.8
18Karel Abraham02:05.960+2.4129329.9
19Hiroshi Aoyama02:06.028+2.48012338.8
20Nicky Hayden02:06.227+2.67912326.3
21Alvaro Bautista02:06.345+2.79712328.8
22Eugene Laverty02:06.583+3.03512332.3
23Alex De Angelis02:07.115+3.56710320.3
24Loris Baz02:07.156+3.6089330.1
25Marco Melandri02:08.140+4.5929326.6
Q1 · 11.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Andrea Iannone02:03.644—6339.3
2Maverick Viñales02:03.878+0.2346328.2
3Hector Barbera02:03.926+0.2825340.4
4Stefan Bradl02:04.275+0.6317330.5
5Yonny Hernandez02:04.313+0.6696339.1
6Mike Di Meglio02:04.392+0.7486336.8
7Eugene Laverty02:04.875+1.2316332.4
8Hiroshi Aoyama02:05.086+1.4426339.7
9Jack Miller02:05.156+1.5126333.1
10Loris Baz02:05.214+1.5707324.9
11Karel Abraham02:05.261+1.6176330.6
12Nicky Hayden02:05.569+1.9256327.2
13Alvaro Bautista02:05.595+1.9516330.2
14Alex De Angelis02:06.145+2.5016321.7
15Marco Melandri02:07.267+3.6236328.2
Q2 · 11.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez02:02.135—6342.6
2Andrea Dovizioso02:02.474+0.3396339.0
3Jorge Lorenzo02:02.540+0.4057333.6
4Valentino Rossi02:02.573+0.4387335.9
5Cal Crutchlow02:02.613+0.4786337.3
6Scott Redding02:02.674+0.5397334.7
7Andrea Iannone02:02.792+0.6577338.0
8Aleix Espargaro02:02.869+0.7346324.9
9Pol Espargaro02:03.161+1.0267338.0
10Bradley Smith02:03.440+1.3056338.3
11Danilo Petrucci02:03.741+1.6066334.4
12Maverick Viñales02:03.754+1.6196328.1
Warm Up · 12.04
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez02:05.905—9336.6
2Cal Crutchlow02:06.237+0.3329331.7
3Yonny Hernandez02:06.435+0.5309331.5
4Scott Redding02:06.652+0.7478328.8
5Pol Espargaro02:06.695+0.7909336.8
6Bradley Smith02:06.785+0.8809332.4
7Maverick Viñales02:06.984+1.0799323.4
8Jorge Lorenzo02:07.220+1.3159329.9
9Hiroshi Aoyama02:07.291+1.3869339.1
10Valentino Rossi02:07.357+1.4529329.6
11Jack Miller02:07.421+1.5169326.5
12Mike Di Meglio02:07.713+1.8089334.5
13Aleix Espargaro02:07.756+1.8519322.2
14Danilo Petrucci02:08.382+2.4779329.8
15Alvaro Bautista02:08.646+2.7419327.7
16Loris Baz02:08.698+2.7939320.4
17Nicky Hayden02:08.890+2.9859322.1
18Karel Abraham02:09.002+3.0979323.8
19Alex De Angelis02:10.070+4.1659313.4
20Stefan Bradl02:10.220+4.3159325.9
21Marco Melandri02:10.377+4.4728323.2
22Eugene Laverty02:10.514+4.6098324.2
23Hector Barbera02:10.620+4.7159331.0
24Andrea Iannone02:11.482+5.5778333.3
25Andrea Dovizioso02:16.358+10.4536329.7
Race · 12.04
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Marc Marquez43:47.1502521
2Andrea Dovizioso+2.3542021
3Valentino Rossi+3.1201621
4Jorge Lorenzo+6.6821321
5Andrea Iannone+7.5841121
6Bradley Smith+10.5571021
7Cal Crutchlow+16.967921
8Aleix Espargaro+19.025821
9Maverick Viñales+38.570721
10Danilo Petrucci+41.796621
11Hiroshi Aoyama+47.199521
12Hector Barbera+47.339421
13Nicky Hayden+56.484321
14Jack Miller+56.731221
15Alvaro Bautista+57.372121
16Eugene Laverty+58.898021
17Loris Baz+68.787021
18Alex De Angelis+82.236021
RetiredKarel Abraham016
RetiredMarco Melandri010
RetiredMike Di Meglio06
Out on lap 1Pol Espargaro00
RetiredScott Redding05
RetiredStefan Bradl03
RetiredYonny Hernandez06

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pred.RiderP(through)Actual in Q1
1Andrea Iannone78%1 ✓
2Maverick Viñales44%2 ✓
3Stefan Bradl36%4
4Yonny Hernandez14%5
5Hector Barbera14%3
6Mike Di Meglio3%6
7Jack Miller11%9
8Loris Baz0%10
9Hiroshi Aoyama0%8
10Karel Abraham0%11
11Alvaro Bautista0%13
12Nicky Hayden0%12
13Eugene Laverty0%7
14Alex De Angelis0%14
15Marco Melandri—15

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marc Marquez130%60%74%86%10%1
Andrea Dovizioso220%52%70%87%8%2
Jorge Lorenzo315%48%68%88%7%4
Valentino Rossi412%40%61%84%8%3
Cal Crutchlow55%22%40%63%28%7
Scott Redding65%24%47%78%9%—
Andrea Iannone73%15%31%60%28%5
Aleix Espargaro83%12%29%66%17%8
Pol Espargaro92%8%20%61%21%—
Bradley Smith101%6%16%60%14%6
Danilo Petrucci111%4%11%46%28%10
Maverick Viñales120%3%10%47%16%9
Hector Barbera131%2%8%41%17%12
Stefan Bradl140%1%5%33%21%—
Yonny Hernandez150%1%3%24%28%—
Mike Di Meglio160%1%3%22%17%—
Eugene Laverty170%1%2%15%16%16
Hiroshi Aoyama180%0%2%14%6%11
Jack Miller190%0%1%7%30%14
Loris Baz200%0%1%7%16%17
Karel Abraham210%0%0%4%31%—
Nicky Hayden220%0%0%3%14%13
Alvaro Bautista230%0%0%2%22%15
Alex De Angelis240%0%0%2%11%18
Marco Melandri250%0%0%2%14%—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100
Position index
14%
Pole wins
62%
Front row on the podium
0.79
Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2014 edition

65
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
21/21
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
4.124 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P10 to P3.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Stefan Bradl (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
  • 2023Alex RinsHonda
  • 2022Enea BastianiniDucati
  • 2021Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2019Alex RinsSuzuki
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20255/2223%
20246/2227%
20239/2241%
20222/248%
20212/2110%
20194/2218%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet