Round 1 of 18 Aftermath

Qatar Grand Prix 2014

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004

20.03 – 23.03.2014

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	42:40.561	25
2	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+0.259	20
3	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+3.370	16
4	Aleix Espargaro	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	+11.623	13
5	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+12.159	11
6	Cal Crutchlow	Ducati	Ducati Team	+28.526	10
7	Scott Redding	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+32.593	9
8	Nicky Hayden	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	+32.628	8
9	Colin Edwards	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	+39.547	7
10	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+43.360	6
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	+46.595	5
12	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	+46.688	4
13	Karel Abraham	Honda	Cardion AB Motoracing	+50.581	3
14	Danilo Petrucci	ART	IodaRacing Project	+63.127	2
15	Broc Parkes	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+74.386	1
16	Michael Laverty	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+92.593	0
17	Mike Di Meglio	Avintia	Avintia Racing	+96.085	0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Hector Barbera	Avintia	Avintia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

9/22

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.259 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P10 to P2.

Longest battle: Michele Pirro vs Nicky Hayden (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	22:02:57	Jorge Lorenzo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	22:03:08	Michael Laverty	Jump start	Jump start
Race	22:03:40	Michael Laverty	Ride through	Ride through penalty
Race	22:05:07	Andrea Iannone	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	22:09:21		Ride through	Ride through
Race	22:11:18	Hector Barbera	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	22:17:33	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	22:36:49	Bradley Smith	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	22:36:57	Pol Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	22:40:27	Alvaro Bautista	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Stefan Bradl (started P7).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Stefan Bradl	7	1	+6
Andrea Iannone	11	5	+6
Valentino Rossi	10	6	+4
Alvaro Bautista	2	8	−6
Cal Crutchlow	8	10	−2
Hiroshi Aoyama	15	16	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	10→2	+6.6
Scott Redding	16→7	+5.5
Aleix Espargaro	9→4	+4.0
Andrea Dovizioso	4→5	−0.2
Mike Di Meglio	22→17	−0.7
Andrea Iannone	11→10	−0.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

19.4 °C

Air

max 19.6 °C

62%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

14 km/h

Wind

gusts 22 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 20.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.201	—	13	336.1
2	Alvaro Bautista	01:55.667	+0.466	18	342.9
3	Bradley Smith	01:55.816	+0.615	17	337.3
4	Andrea Iannone	01:55.996	+0.795	17	345.7
5	Pol Espargaro	01:56.020	+0.819	17	346.0
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.332	+1.131	16	344.0
7	Valentino Rossi	01:56.542	+1.341	18	340.4
8	Colin Edwards	01:56.626	+1.425	16	332.1
9	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.668	+1.467	15	340.0
10	Nicky Hayden	01:56.670	+1.469	20	328.6
11	Marc Marquez	01:56.682	+1.481	15	344.4
12	Stefan Bradl	01:56.726	+1.525	19	342.4
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:57.046	+1.845	16	339.7
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.100	+1.899	17	340.4
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:57.623	+2.422	4	340.8
16	Karel Abraham	01:57.779	+2.578	15	330.0
17	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:58.182	+2.981	13	329.9
18	Hector Barbera	01:58.394	+3.193	11	324.6
19	Scott Redding	01:58.495	+3.294	10	324.4
20	Mike Di Meglio	01:58.732	+3.531	13	324.6
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.321	+4.120	17	327.3
22	Broc Parkes	01:59.328	+4.127	12	321.4
Retired	Michael Laverty		—	0	0.0

FP2 · 21.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.989	—	13	333.0
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.320	+0.331	16	348.3
3	Alvaro Bautista	01:55.446	+0.457	17	342.8
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.562	+0.573	18	343.0
5	Marc Marquez	01:55.607	+0.618	16	344.7
6	Bradley Smith	01:55.650	+0.661	18	335.8
7	Stefan Bradl	01:55.856	+0.867	17	338.7
8	Pol Espargaro	01:55.913	+0.924	15	337.7
9	Valentino Rossi	01:55.984	+0.995	18	338.1
10	Andrea Iannone	01:56.006	+1.017	17	340.3
11	Jorge Lorenzo	01:56.172	+1.183	17	337.1
12	Colin Edwards	01:56.238	+1.249	16	328.9
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.720	+1.731	16	338.7
14	Nicky Hayden	01:57.006	+2.017	14	324.1
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:57.119	+2.130	14	336.1
16	Scott Redding	01:57.296	+2.307	15	321.7
17	Karel Abraham	01:57.368	+2.379	13	325.6
18	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:57.634	+2.645	19	327.2
19	Hector Barbera	01:58.290	+3.301	12	322.8
20	Mike Di Meglio	01:58.410	+3.421	13	321.4
21	Broc Parkes	01:58.436	+3.447	12	316.9
22	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.078	+4.089	15	321.7
23	Michael Laverty	01:59.646	+4.657	10	321.3

FP3 · 21.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.773	—	15	325.6
2	Andrea Iannone	01:55.186	+0.413	19	341.2
3	Alvaro Bautista	01:55.240	+0.467	17	341.0
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.250	+0.477	15	342.3
5	Marc Marquez	01:55.446	+0.673	16	340.3
6	Bradley Smith	01:55.474	+0.701	15	335.2
7	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.495	+0.722	14	334.2
8	Stefan Bradl	01:55.676	+0.903	18	338.4
9	Valentino Rossi	01:55.702	+0.929	17	336.4
10	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.754	+0.981	16	339.8
11	Pol Espargaro	01:55.793	+1.020	19	334.5
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.013	+1.240	16	338.0
13	Nicky Hayden	01:56.357	+1.584	15	324.0
14	Colin Edwards	01:56.373	+1.600	17	324.4
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:56.633	+1.860	15	331.0
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:56.939	+2.166	18	330.8
17	Scott Redding	01:56.997	+2.224	16	322.7
18	Karel Abraham	01:57.345	+2.572	14	324.5
19	Broc Parkes	01:57.665	+2.892	13	314.5
20	Mike Di Meglio	01:58.204	+3.431	13	322.0
21	Hector Barbera	01:58.219	+3.446	12	322.7
22	Michael Laverty	01:58.378	+3.605	13	317.3
23	Danilo Petrucci	01:58.651	+3.878	18	321.0

FP4 · 22.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Bradley Smith	01:55.427	—	14	335.1
2	Marc Marquez	01:55.432	+0.005	13	338.2
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.459	+0.032	11	326.1
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:55.540	+0.113	13	339.6
5	Andrea Iannone	01:55.586	+0.159	13	346.7
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:55.828	+0.401	13	344.0
7	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.919	+0.492	16	334.6
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.045	+0.618	13	345.2
9	Stefan Bradl	01:56.164	+0.737	13	339.3
10	Valentino Rossi	01:56.206	+0.779	13	337.0
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.374	+0.947	10	335.9
12	Pol Espargaro	01:56.589	+1.162	13	335.7
13	Scott Redding	01:56.614	+1.187	11	322.0
14	Colin Edwards	01:56.676	+1.249	12	324.7
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:56.713	+1.286	11	324.6
16	Nicky Hayden	01:56.836	+1.409	10	323.7
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:57.058	+1.631	11	332.0
18	Karel Abraham	01:57.194	+1.767	12	324.2
19	Hector Barbera	01:57.748	+2.321	12	322.0
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:58.023	+2.596	12	319.8
21	Mike Di Meglio	01:58.297	+2.870	11	320.4
22	Michael Laverty	01:59.076	+3.649	8	316.6
23	Broc Parkes	01:59.115	+3.688	10	313.3

Q1 · 22.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Pol Espargaro	01:55.406	—	2	336.6
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:55.503	+0.097	2	334.4
3	Nicky Hayden	01:55.894	+0.488	7	326.4
4	Colin Edwards	01:56.042	+0.636	7	325.2
5	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:56.479	+1.073	7	324.4
6	Scott Redding	01:56.555	+1.149	6	318.2
7	Yonny Hernandez	01:56.648	+1.242	6	329.2
8	Karel Abraham	01:56.715	+1.309	6	324.7
9	Hector Barbera	01:57.006	+1.600	6	322.4
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.513	+2.107	7	316.4
11	Broc Parkes	01:57.574	+2.168	6	316.1
12	Mike Di Meglio	01:57.667	+2.261	6	318.2
13	Michael Laverty	01:58.254	+2.848	6	316.9

Q2 · 22.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:54.507	—	7	338.6
2	Alvaro Bautista	01:54.564	+0.057	7	340.1
3	Bradley Smith	01:54.601	+0.094	7	336.5
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:54.644	+0.137	5	340.9
5	Jorge Lorenzo	01:54.661	+0.154	7	332.9
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:54.703	+0.196	7	339.9
7	Stefan Bradl	01:54.871	+0.364	7	338.5
8	Cal Crutchlow	01:54.888	+0.381	7	337.9
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.986	+0.479	4	326.2
10	Valentino Rossi	01:55.096	+0.589	7	336.7
11	Andrea Iannone	01:55.127	+0.620	6	341.8
12	Pol Espargaro	01:55.152	+0.645	7	336.2

Warm Up · 23.03

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Andrea Iannone	01:55.657	—	10	342.8
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.711	+0.054	10	327.6
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:55.769	+0.112	10	333.3
4	Alvaro Bautista	01:55.868	+0.211	10	340.3
5	Valentino Rossi	01:55.977	+0.320	10	340.8
6	Marc Marquez	01:55.990	+0.333	7	338.6
7	Bradley Smith	01:56.001	+0.344	10	334.7
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:56.037	+0.380	9	338.4
9	Stefan Bradl	01:56.230	+0.573	10	338.0
10	Pol Espargaro	01:56.290	+0.633	10	333.2
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.419	+0.762	9	338.4
12	Andrea Dovizioso	01:56.507	+0.850	10	341.2
13	Nicky Hayden	01:56.668	+1.011	11	320.7
14	Scott Redding	01:56.889	+1.232	10	323.2
15	Colin Edwards	01:56.908	+1.251	9	322.1
16	Hector Barbera	01:57.228	+1.571	11	323.2
17	Karel Abraham	01:57.293	+1.636	7	320.9
18	Yonny Hernandez	01:57.294	+1.637	11	332.1
19	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:57.329	+1.672	10	328.1
20	Broc Parkes	01:58.378	+2.721	10	314.7
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:58.625	+2.968	8	319.3
22	Michael Laverty	01:58.734	+3.077	9	319.7
23	Mike Di Meglio	02:00.083	+4.426	9	316.9

Race · 23.03

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Marc Marquez	42:40.561	25	22
2	Valentino Rossi	+0.259	20	22
3	Daniel Pedrosa	+3.370	16	22
4	Aleix Espargaro	+11.623	13	22
5	Andrea Dovizioso	+12.159	11	22
6	Cal Crutchlow	+28.526	10	22
7	Scott Redding	+32.593	9	22
8	Nicky Hayden	+32.628	8	22
9	Colin Edwards	+39.547	7	22
10	Andrea Iannone	+43.360	6	22
11	Hiroshi Aoyama	+46.595	5	22
12	Yonny Hernandez	+46.688	4	22
13	Karel Abraham	+50.581	3	22
14	Danilo Petrucci	+63.127	2	22
15	Broc Parkes	+74.386	1	22
16	Michael Laverty	+92.593	0	22
17	Mike Di Meglio	+96.085	0	22
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	20
Retired	Bradley Smith		0	18
Retired	Hector Barbera		0	4
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		0	0
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	17
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	8

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pol Espargaro	77%	1 ✓
2	Cal Crutchlow	47%	2 ✓
3	Colin Edwards	41%	4
4	Nicky Hayden	12%	3
5	Scott Redding	18%	6
6	Yonny Hernandez	0%	7
7	Hiroshi Aoyama	6%	5
8	Karel Abraham	0%	8
9	Broc Parkes	0%	11
10	Hector Barbera	0%	9
11	Danilo Petrucci	0%	10
12	Mike Di Meglio	0%	12
13	Michael Laverty	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	41%	77%	100%	9
2	Andrea Iannone	24%	59%	100%	11
3	Alvaro Bautista	29%	47%	94%	2
4	Andrea Dovizioso	6%	47%	71%	4
5	Bradley Smith	0%	35%	77%	3
6	Marc Marquez	0%	12%	53%	1
7	Jorge Lorenzo	0%	18%	47%	5
8	Daniel Pedrosa	0%	6%	18%	6
9	Stefan Bradl	0%	0%	18%	7
10	Valentino Rossi	0%	0%	18%	10
11	Pol Espargaro	0%	0%	0%	12
12	Cal Crutchlow	0%	0%	8%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.41%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.50%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%	Ai Ogura +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Alex Marquez +0.41%	Alex Rins +0.51%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Franco Morbidelli +0.31%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.55%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Alex Marquez +0.29%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.49%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.19%	Raul Fernandez +0.43%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.21%
S4	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%	Joan Mir +0.37%
S2	Pol Espargaro +0.40%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%	Enea Bastianini +0.47%
S3	Alex Rins +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.19%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Franco Morbidelli +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.27%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Valentino Rossi +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.47%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%
S4	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Danilo Petrucci +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.26%
S2	Valentino Rossi +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.45%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.15%	Alex Rins +0.32%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

57/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 56%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

Pending · no data yet

The last race here in numbers

2013 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

22/22

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

5.990 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P7 to P2.

Longest battle: Daniel Pedrosa vs Marc Marquez (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	1/22	5%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	6/24	25%
2021	3/22	14%
2019	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet