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Round 8 of 18 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2014

TT Circuit Assen Netherlands

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949
26.06 – 28.06.2014
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team43:29.95425
2Andrea DoviziosoDucatiDucati Team+6.71420
3Daniel PedrosaHondaRepsol Honda Team+10.79116
4Aleix EspargaroForward YamahaNGM Forward Racing+19.19913
5Valentino RossiYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+25.81311
6Andrea IannoneDucatiPramac Racing+29.00310
7Alvaro BautistaHondaGO&FUN Honda Gresini+30.8829
8Bradley SmithYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3+30.9858
9Cal CrutchlowDucatiDucati Team+44.0317
10Stefan BradlHondaLCR Honda MotoGP+48.6626
11Broc ParkesPBMPaul Bird Motorsport+51.8635
12Scott ReddingHondaGO&FUN Honda Gresini+60.3294
13Jorge LorenzoYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGP+64.6413
14Karel AbrahamHondaCardion AB Motoracing+65.9802
15Danilo PetrucciARTIodaRacing Project+77.6111
16Hiroshi AoyamaHondaDrive M7 Aspar+79.7530
17Nicky HaydenHondaDrive M7 Aspar+87.6300
18Hector BarberaAvintiaAvintia Racing+88.1420
19Yonny HernandezDucatiEnergy T.I. Pramac Racing+0.0000
20Mike Di MeglioAvintiaAvintia Racing+0.0000
21Michael LavertyPBMPaul Bird Motorsport+0.0000
22Colin EdwardsForward YamahaNGM Forward Racing+0.0000
DNFPol EspargaroYamahaMonster Yamaha Tech 3Retired0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14
Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

201
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
3 leaders
17/26
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
6.714 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Broc Parkes, from P19 to P11.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Daniel Pedrosa (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Race13:47:10Stefan BradlCrashCrashed out in sighting lap
Race14:18:04Pol EspargaroPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:18:04Scott ReddingPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:18:22Broc ParkesCrashCrashed out in warmup lap
Race14:20:29Valentino RossiPit-lane startStarting from pit lane
Race14:20:32Broc ParkesPit-lane startStarting from pit lane
Race14:21:54Jump startJump start
Race14:47:17Pol EspargaroCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:53:39Pol EspargaroRetiredEntered pits and retired

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25
18.7 °C
Air
max 19.0 °C
71%
Humidity
1.2 mm
Rain
14 km/h
Wind
gusts 39 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 26.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Pol Espargaro01:34.530—21312.7
2Aleix Espargaro01:34.719+0.18917305.5
3Jorge Lorenzo01:34.736+0.20619308.8
4Marc Marquez01:34.770+0.24018309.3
5Bradley Smith01:34.915+0.38521310.8
6Valentino Rossi01:34.974+0.44421309.1
7Andrea Dovizioso01:35.069+0.53918309.8
8Daniel Pedrosa01:35.187+0.65718311.2
9Alvaro Bautista01:35.364+0.83419311.4
10Stefan Bradl01:35.885+1.35521308.4
11Andrea Iannone01:35.888+1.35819308.3
12Colin Edwards01:36.269+1.73919302.6
13Cal Crutchlow01:36.295+1.76520308.2
14Scott Redding01:36.353+1.82318295.8
15Yonny Hernandez01:36.363+1.83319303.9
16Karel Abraham01:36.375+1.84516298.0
17Hiroshi Aoyama01:36.521+1.99120299.7
18Broc Parkes01:37.209+2.67914292.7
19Nicky Hayden01:37.275+2.74518295.0
20Hector Barbera01:37.370+2.84017295.1
21Michael Laverty01:37.488+2.95818295.8
22Mike Di Meglio01:37.498+2.96820293.9
23Danilo Petrucci01:37.732+3.20216290.8
FP2 · 26.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Aleix Espargaro01:33.653—17301.2
2Marc Marquez01:33.864+0.21119307.7
3Daniel Pedrosa01:34.069+0.41620310.9
4Jorge Lorenzo01:34.148+0.49519306.8
5Andrea Iannone01:34.277+0.62424307.5
6Bradley Smith01:34.286+0.63320310.3
7Valentino Rossi01:34.286+0.63321305.6
8Pol Espargaro01:34.408+0.75522308.0
9Stefan Bradl01:34.457+0.80421308.5
10Andrea Dovizioso01:34.460+0.80720310.5
11Alvaro Bautista01:34.466+0.81320308.1
12Scott Redding01:35.445+1.79216292.9
13Cal Crutchlow01:35.469+1.81619305.7
14Yonny Hernandez01:35.537+1.88417305.7
15Colin Edwards01:35.590+1.93720298.8
16Hiroshi Aoyama01:35.787+2.13420298.6
17Nicky Hayden01:35.891+2.23819293.0
18Karel Abraham01:35.925+2.27219296.4
19Broc Parkes01:36.046+2.39318289.5
20Hector Barbera01:36.270+2.61719295.4
21Michael Laverty01:36.280+2.62719294.2
22Danilo Petrucci01:36.657+3.00420289.4
23Mike Di Meglio01:36.724+3.07117292.8
FP3 · 27.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Valentino Rossi01:34.650—11303.8
2Alvaro Bautista01:34.912+0.26212306.2
3Andrea Dovizioso01:35.213+0.5636305.8
4Stefan Bradl01:35.532+0.8825304.6
5Bradley Smith01:35.715+1.0656305.4
6Karel Abraham01:36.670+2.0208293.4
7Nicky Hayden01:36.957+2.3079289.8
8Scott Redding01:37.251+2.60110289.8
9Yonny Hernandez01:37.330+2.68011299.3
10Cal Crutchlow01:37.754+3.1046304.7
11Mike Di Meglio01:38.130+3.4807288.8
12Broc Parkes01:38.365+3.7157288.0
13Hiroshi Aoyama01:38.786+4.1368292.6
14Hector Barbera01:39.404+4.75412289.7
15Andrea Iannone01:39.820+5.1706291.2
16Michael Laverty01:40.897+6.2476290.1
—Aleix Espargaro01:52.577+17.9275268.7
—Colin Edwards01:49.292+14.6429284.5
RetiredDaniel Pedrosa—00.0
RetiredDanilo Petrucci—00.0
RetiredJorge Lorenzo—00.0
RetiredMarc Marquez—00.0
—Pol Espargaro01:54.425+19.7755305.0
FP4 · 27.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:33.462—15313.4
2Valentino Rossi01:33.860+0.39817306.1
3Jorge Lorenzo01:33.862+0.40016307.6
4Pol Espargaro01:33.941+0.47917308.0
5Aleix Espargaro01:34.158+0.69612300.1
6Daniel Pedrosa01:34.353+0.89115309.1
7Andrea Dovizioso01:34.657+1.19515308.3
8Andrea Iannone01:34.670+1.20815304.0
9Stefan Bradl01:34.690+1.22816307.2
10Alvaro Bautista01:34.883+1.42115307.0
11Bradley Smith01:34.929+1.46715309.2
12Yonny Hernandez01:35.523+2.06113305.6
13Scott Redding01:35.835+2.37315291.5
14Hiroshi Aoyama01:35.926+2.46414295.9
15Nicky Hayden01:35.934+2.47213290.8
16Broc Parkes01:35.984+2.52213289.2
17Cal Crutchlow01:36.005+2.54313305.6
18Karel Abraham01:36.035+2.57311293.6
19Colin Edwards01:36.036+2.57411296.6
20Danilo Petrucci01:36.192+2.73013286.2
21Michael Laverty01:36.531+3.06912293.6
22Mike Di Meglio01:36.669+3.20712290.0
23Hector Barbera01:37.271+3.80910292.3
Q1 · 27.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Alvaro Bautista01:34.274—4305.1
2Cal Crutchlow01:34.598+0.3246303.3
3Karel Abraham01:34.907+0.6339294.1
4Hiroshi Aoyama01:34.930+0.6569296.9
5Yonny Hernandez01:35.056+0.7826303.2
6Scott Redding01:35.059+0.7859292.6
7Danilo Petrucci01:35.346+1.0727288.6
8Colin Edwards01:35.484+1.2107297.2
9Broc Parkes01:35.513+1.2397288.0
10Hector Barbera01:35.631+1.3579294.5
11Michael Laverty01:35.731+1.4579294.3
12Nicky Hayden01:35.792+1.5189293.9
13Mike Di Meglio01:35.980+1.7069290.7
Q2 · 27.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Aleix Espargaro01:38.789—7298.5
2Marc Marquez01:40.194+1.4057289.0
3Daniel Pedrosa01:40.732+1.9438301.5
4Andrea Iannone01:40.786+1.9977289.7
5Cal Crutchlow01:40.796+2.0076290.8
6Bradley Smith01:40.818+2.0294296.0
7Andrea Dovizioso01:41.140+2.3517296.1
8Stefan Bradl01:41.982+3.1938276.9
9Jorge Lorenzo01:42.259+3.4708297.1
10Alvaro Bautista01:42.884+4.0956289.1
11Pol Espargaro01:43.085+4.2966299.7
12Valentino Rossi01:43.625+4.8368298.9
Warm Up · 28.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/h
1Marc Marquez01:34.121—11305.2
2Jorge Lorenzo01:34.137+0.01612306.4
3Pol Espargaro01:34.488+0.36712304.5
4Aleix Espargaro01:34.514+0.39312296.7
5Valentino Rossi01:34.573+0.45212303.6
6Daniel Pedrosa01:34.766+0.64512307.1
7Andrea Dovizioso01:34.863+0.74211304.3
8Stefan Bradl01:34.922+0.80112305.8
9Andrea Iannone01:34.939+0.81811302.4
10Bradley Smith01:35.022+0.90112303.9
11Nicky Hayden01:35.265+1.14412290.7
12Alvaro Bautista01:35.343+1.22212305.8
13Cal Crutchlow01:35.567+1.44611303.8
14Yonny Hernandez01:35.754+1.63312301.0
15Hiroshi Aoyama01:35.875+1.75412294.9
16Karel Abraham01:36.094+1.97310290.2
17Scott Redding01:36.206+2.08510287.5
18Colin Edwards01:36.279+2.15811294.5
19Michael Laverty01:36.588+2.46712293.3
20Broc Parkes01:36.604+2.48310290.4
21Mike Di Meglio01:36.942+2.82110287.0
22Hector Barbera01:37.187+3.06610290.7
23Danilo Petrucci01:37.437+3.31611283.5
Race · 28.06
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLaps
1Marc Marquez43:29.9542526
2Andrea Dovizioso+6.7142026
3Daniel Pedrosa+10.7911626
4Aleix Espargaro+19.1991326
5Valentino Rossi+25.8131126
6Andrea Iannone+29.0031026
7Alvaro Bautista+30.882926
8Bradley Smith+30.985826
9Cal Crutchlow+44.031726
10Stefan Bradl+48.662626
11Broc Parkes+51.863526
12Scott Redding+60.329426
13Jorge Lorenzo+64.641326
14Karel Abraham+65.980226
15Danilo Petrucci+77.611126
16Hiroshi Aoyama+79.753026
17Nicky Hayden+87.630026
18Hector Barbera+88.142026
19Yonny Hernandez+0.000025
20Mike Di Meglio+0.000025
21Michael Laverty+0.000025
22Colin Edwards+0.000023
RetiredPol Espargaro018

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet
Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BezzecchiS2 · BagnaiaS3 · QuartararoS4 · Ogura

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100
Position index
38%
Pole wins
50%
Front row on the podium
0.84
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2013 edition

41
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
21/26
Laps led by the winner
Valentino Rossi
2.170 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Lorenzo, from P12 to P5.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Nicky Hayden (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1
Pending · no data yet

Winners here

  • 2026Ai OguraAprilia
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20266/2227%
20256/2227%
20244/2119%
20238/2236%
20224/2417%
20214/2218%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet