Round 3 of 18 Aftermath

Argentine Grand Prix 2014

4.805 m · 25 laps · since 2014

25.04 – 27.04.2014

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:39.821	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+1.837	20
3	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+3.201	16
4	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+4.898	13
5	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+15.029	11
6	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+19.447	10
7	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+24.192	9
8	Pol Espargaro	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+29.118	8
9	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+33.673	7
10	Hiroshi Aoyama	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	+43.279	6
11	Nicky Hayden	Honda	Drive M7 Aspar	+43.352	5
12	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	+44.819	4
13	Karel Abraham	Honda	Cardion AB Motoracing	+45.178	3
14	Scott Redding	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+48.656	2
15	Aleix Espargaro	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	+52.250	1
16	Hector Barbera	Avintia	Avintia Racing	+53.505	0
17	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Team	+53.669	0
18	Michael Laverty	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+56.570	0
19	Mike Di Meglio	Avintia	Avintia Racing	+63.140	0
20	Colin Edwards	Forward Yamaha	NGM Forward Racing	+65.760	0
21	Broc Parkes	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+76.722	0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	ART	IodaRacing Project	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

9/25

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.837 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Hiroshi Aoyama, from P16 to P10.

Longest battle: Colin Edwards vs Michael Laverty (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:41	Alvaro Bautista	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:01:41	Danilo Petrucci	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:55		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:03:00	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Michele Pirro	19	12	+7
Mike Di Meglio	22	17	+5
Valentino Rossi	6	2	+4
Aleix Espargaro	4	10	−6
Colin Edwards	14	18	−4
Marc Marquez	1	4	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Stefan Bradl	9→5	+3.0
Hiroshi Aoyama	16→10	+2.5
Daniel Pedrosa	3→2	+2.1
Broc Parkes	18→21	−7.2
Colin Edwards	14→20	−8.8
Aleix Espargaro	4→15	−10.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

24.0 °C

Air

max 24.5 °C

54%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 17 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 25.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:42.804	—	18	322.1
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:43.285	+0.481	13	318.7
3	Alvaro Bautista	01:43.637	+0.833	19	325.4
4	Andrea Iannone	01:43.706	+0.902	16	322.1
5	Bradley Smith	01:43.806	+1.002	18	322.1
6	Pol Espargaro	01:43.961	+1.157	19	321.5
7	Stefan Bradl	01:44.055	+1.251	20	324.4
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:44.096	+1.292	17	322.2
9	Nicky Hayden	01:44.333	+1.529	18	308.8
10	Valentino Rossi	01:44.502	+1.698	18	320.5
11	Scott Redding	01:44.763	+1.959	18	307.0
12	Michele Pirro	01:44.790	+1.986	17	316.2
13	Yonny Hernandez	01:44.889	+2.085	16	317.5
14	Marc Marquez	01:45.103	+2.299	16	319.9
15	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:45.137	+2.333	20	311.2
16	Daniel Pedrosa	01:45.724	+2.920	17	322.9
17	Colin Edwards	01:45.808	+3.004	17	312.8
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:46.008	+3.204	16	305.2
19	Michael Laverty	01:46.167	+3.363	14	308.0
20	Mike Di Meglio	01:46.264	+3.460	19	307.2
21	Broc Parkes	01:46.896	+4.092	16	303.0
22	Hector Barbera	01:47.027	+4.223	17	308.5
23	Karel Abraham	01:47.037	+4.233	16	310.2

FP2 · 25.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.313	—	18	325.0
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:40.396	+1.083	18	325.5
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.566	+1.253	16	320.3
4	Stefan Bradl	01:40.891	+1.578	20	325.8
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:41.042	+1.729	11	328.4
6	Bradley Smith	01:41.303	+1.990	20	323.8
7	Pol Espargaro	01:41.368	+2.055	19	321.8
8	Valentino Rossi	01:41.395	+2.082	21	322.5
9	Jorge Lorenzo	01:41.533	+2.220	18	323.8
10	Andrea Iannone	01:41.924	+2.611	13	323.9
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:42.029	+2.716	20	325.8
12	Yonny Hernandez	01:42.128	+2.815	16	320.2
13	Karel Abraham	01:42.348	+3.035	18	317.2
14	Colin Edwards	01:42.608	+3.295	19	312.5
15	Nicky Hayden	01:42.621	+3.308	18	311.0
16	Hector Barbera	01:42.739	+3.426	16	308.1
17	Broc Parkes	01:42.827	+3.514	14	301.6
18	Michele Pirro	01:42.898	+3.585	17	318.3
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:43.106	+3.793	18	306.6
20	Mike Di Meglio	01:43.125	+3.812	14	309.2
21	Michael Laverty	01:43.151	+3.838	17	306.5
22	Scott Redding	01:43.165	+3.852	16	307.3
23	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:43.347	+4.034	18	311.0

FP3 · 26.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.171	—	19	324.5
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.330	+0.159	19	323.7
3	Valentino Rossi	01:39.458	+0.287	21	322.2
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.573	+0.402	18	320.6
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.757	+0.586	17	324.7
6	Stefan Bradl	01:39.771	+0.600	21	325.0
7	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.782	+0.611	21	320.4
8	Andrea Iannone	01:40.050	+0.879	18	323.6
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.223	+1.052	17	325.1
10	Pol Espargaro	01:40.422	+1.251	15	320.8
11	Bradley Smith	01:40.575	+1.404	23	323.2
12	Yonny Hernandez	01:40.802	+1.631	17	321.0
13	Colin Edwards	01:40.950	+1.779	18	314.4
14	Nicky Hayden	01:41.142	+1.971	20	309.1
15	Scott Redding	01:41.193	+2.022	19	306.5
16	Michele Pirro	01:41.457	+2.286	15	314.7
17	Karel Abraham	01:41.552	+2.381	14	310.4
18	Mike Di Meglio	01:41.904	+2.733	15	308.0
19	Broc Parkes	01:41.935	+2.764	15	301.8
20	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:41.958	+2.787	20	310.5
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.419	+3.248	17	304.1
22	Hector Barbera	01:42.482	+3.311	13	309.0
23	Michael Laverty	01:42.932	+3.761	16	305.0

FP4 · 26.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.103	—	15	324.2
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.485	+0.382	15	324.7
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.841	+0.738	13	318.2
4	Valentino Rossi	01:39.944	+0.841	14	321.9
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.008	+0.905	15	326.8
6	Andrea Iannone	01:40.155	+1.052	14	328.3
7	Stefan Bradl	01:40.251	+1.148	16	323.7
8	Jorge Lorenzo	01:40.271	+1.168	15	319.7
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.372	+1.269	15	326.7
10	Bradley Smith	01:40.463	+1.360	14	323.0
11	Pol Espargaro	01:40.476	+1.373	15	321.9
12	Nicky Hayden	01:40.661	+1.558	15	310.1
13	Scott Redding	01:40.746	+1.643	14	307.6
14	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:41.013	+1.910	16	311.2
15	Yonny Hernandez	01:41.038	+1.935	10	317.8
16	Colin Edwards	01:41.185	+2.082	15	316.5
17	Karel Abraham	01:41.555	+2.452	11	311.2
18	Hector Barbera	01:41.819	+2.716	15	307.3
19	Michael Laverty	01:41.856	+2.753	13	305.9
20	Michele Pirro	01:42.097	+2.994	12	315.7
21	Broc Parkes	01:42.102	+2.999	11	301.9
22	Mike Di Meglio	01:42.222	+3.119	14	308.2
23	Danilo Petrucci	01:43.052	+3.949	9	305.2

Q1 · 26.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Bradley Smith	01:39.888	—	7	318.9
2	Nicky Hayden	01:40.198	+0.310	7	307.6
3	Scott Redding	01:40.238	+0.350	8	304.8
4	Colin Edwards	01:40.476	+0.588	7	313.7
5	Karel Abraham	01:40.615	+0.727	8	309.2
6	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:40.616	+0.728	8	309.4
7	Yonny Hernandez	01:40.691	+0.803	8	317.9
8	Broc Parkes	01:40.981	+1.093	7	305.5
9	Michele Pirro	01:41.018	+1.130	7	313.8
10	Michael Laverty	01:41.103	+1.215	8	306.7
11	Hector Barbera	01:41.129	+1.241	8	307.2
12	Mike Di Meglio	01:41.267	+1.379	8	304.6
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.686	+1.798	8	303.7

Q2 · 26.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:37.683	—	6	327.3
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:38.425	+0.742	7	321.7
3	Daniel Pedrosa	01:38.651	+0.968	8	324.5
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.794	+1.111	7	319.5
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.856	+1.173	6	324.3
6	Valentino Rossi	01:38.949	+1.266	8	320.9
7	Bradley Smith	01:38.958	+1.275	8	321.8
8	Andrea Iannone	01:39.237	+1.554	7	324.7
9	Stefan Bradl	01:39.297	+1.614	2	323.4
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:39.429	+1.746	8	325.0
11	Pol Espargaro	01:39.822	+2.139	8	321.1
12	Nicky Hayden	01:40.541	+2.858	7	309.7

Warm Up · 27.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Marc Marquez	01:38.898	—	10	323.4
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.522	+0.624	10	323.1
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:39.558	+0.660	11	322.6
4	Valentino Rossi	01:39.614	+0.716	12	324.9
5	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.670	+0.772	11	328.2
6	Stefan Bradl	01:39.696	+0.798	12	325.4
7	Pol Espargaro	01:39.790	+0.892	12	324.4
8	Andrea Iannone	01:39.999	+1.101	12	327.6
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:40.153	+1.255	10	327.9
10	Alvaro Bautista	01:40.177	+1.279	12	327.1
11	Bradley Smith	01:40.201	+1.303	12	324.3
12	Yonny Hernandez	01:40.447	+1.549	11	324.7
13	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:40.542	+1.644	12	315.9
14	Nicky Hayden	01:40.558	+1.660	11	313.0
15	Scott Redding	01:40.714	+1.816	11	308.2
16	Michele Pirro	01:40.743	+1.845	11	321.5
17	Karel Abraham	01:40.869	+1.971	11	314.4
18	Hector Barbera	01:41.263	+2.365	12	310.9
19	Colin Edwards	01:41.265	+2.367	10	318.0
20	Mike Di Meglio	01:41.497	+2.599	11	309.7
21	Broc Parkes	01:41.647	+2.749	11	305.5
22	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.745	+2.847	10	308.2
23	Michael Laverty	01:41.786	+2.888	12	310.8

Race · 27.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Marc Marquez	41:39.821	25	25
2	Daniel Pedrosa	+1.837	20	25
3	Jorge Lorenzo	+3.201	16	25
4	Valentino Rossi	+4.898	13	25
5	Stefan Bradl	+15.029	11	25
6	Andrea Iannone	+19.447	10	25
7	Bradley Smith	+24.192	9	25
8	Pol Espargaro	+29.118	8	25
9	Andrea Dovizioso	+33.673	7	25
10	Hiroshi Aoyama	+43.279	6	25
11	Nicky Hayden	+43.352	5	25
12	Yonny Hernandez	+44.819	4	25
13	Karel Abraham	+45.178	3	25
14	Scott Redding	+48.656	2	25
15	Aleix Espargaro	+52.250	1	25
16	Hector Barbera	+53.505	0	25
17	Michele Pirro	+53.669	0	25
18	Michael Laverty	+56.570	0	25
19	Mike Di Meglio	+63.140	0	25
20	Colin Edwards	+65.760	0	25
21	Broc Parkes	+76.722	0	25
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	0
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		0	0

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Bradley Smith	79%	1 ✓
2	Nicky Hayden	53%	2 ✓
3	Scott Redding	37%	3
4	Yonny Hernandez	11%	7
5	Colin Edwards	16%	4
6	Hiroshi Aoyama	0%	6
7	Michele Pirro	5%	9
8	Karel Abraham	0%	5
9	Hector Barbera	0%	11
10	Michael Laverty	0%	10
11	Mike Di Meglio	0%	12
12	Broc Parkes	0%	8
13	Danilo Petrucci	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	42%	74%	95%	1
2	Daniel Pedrosa	21%	58%	95%	3
3	Valentino Rossi	26%	53%	95%	6
4	Aleix Espargaro	5%	42%	68%	4
5	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	37%	74%	5
6	Stefan Bradl	5%	16%	53%	9
7	Jorge Lorenzo	0%	16%	53%	2
8	Alvaro Bautista	0%	5%	21%	10
9	Andrea Iannone	0%	0%	16%	8
10	Pol Espargaro	0%	0%	21%	11
11	Bradley Smith	0%	0%	0%	7
12	Nicky Hayden	0%	0%	14%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,820 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Pedro Acosta +0.38%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.37%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.02%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.42%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.79%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Maverick Viñales +0.05%	Jorge Martin +0.44%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.10%	Luca Marini +0.13%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.25%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Pol Espargaro +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Aleix Espargaro +0.00%	Alex Rins +0.32%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%
S4	Brad Binder	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Franco Morbidelli +0.27%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Cal Crutchlow +0.16%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.32%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Cal Crutchlow +0.22%	Valentino Rossi +0.58%
S2	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.39%	Cal Crutchlow +0.93%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

10/100

Position index

60%

Pole wins

60%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 20% of the time (between 4% and 62%; 5 cases).

Descriptive, over 5 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	50	—
2	Daniel Pedrosa	36	−14
3	Valentino Rossi	28	−22
4	Andrea Dovizioso	27	−23
5	Aleix Espargaro	20	−30
6	Andrea Iannone	15	−35

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Marc MarquezDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Cal CrutchlowHonda
2017Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2016Marc MarquezHonda
2015Valentino RossiYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 17% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	2/20	10%
2023	0/17	0%
2022	4/24	17%
2019	5/22	23%
2018	3/24	13%
2017	7/23	30%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet