Round 7 of 18 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2013

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

27.06 – 29.06.2013

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	41:25.202	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.170	20
3	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+4.073	16
4	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+7.832	13
5	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+15.510	11
6	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+27.519	10
7	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+31.598	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+32.405	8
9	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+33.751	7
10	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+33.801	6
11	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+34.371	5
12	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+57.674	4
13	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	+61.424	3
14	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ignite Pramac Racing	+61.561	2
15	Karel Abraham	ART	Cardion AB Motoracing	+64.426	1
16	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+71.114	0
17	Colin Edwards	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+75.249	0
18	Claudio Corti	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+84.884	0
19	Yonny Hernandez	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	+85.854	0
20	Hector Barbera	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+85.978	0
21	Bryan Staring	FTR Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+86.256	0
22	Michael Laverty	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+86.610	0
23	Ivan Silva	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+98.173	0
DNF	Lukas Pesek	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	Retired	0

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

21/26

Laps led by the winner

Valentino Rossi

2.170 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Lorenzo, from P12 to P5.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Nicky Hayden (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Daniel Pedrosa (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Michael Laverty	22	16	+6
Jorge Lorenzo	12	7	+5
Daniel Pedrosa	5	1	+4
Randy De Puniet	9	14	−5
Colin Edwards	18	23	−5
Hector Barbera	14	18	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Jorge Lorenzo	12→5	+4.9
Valentino Rossi	4→1	+3.8
Andrea Dovizioso	15→10	+1.8
Michael Laverty	22→22	−5.7
Bryan Staring	19→21	−6.6
Hector Barbera	14→20	−8.8

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

Race weather

C25

15.5 °C

Air

max 15.5 °C

57%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

22 km/h

Wind

gusts 45 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Randy De Puniet	—	1 ✓
2	Andrea Dovizioso	—	5
3	Nicky Hayden	—	2 ✓
4	Hector Barbera	—	4
5	Karel Abraham	—	7
6	Danilo Petrucci	—	6
7	Andrea Iannone	—	3
8	Colin Edwards	—	8
9	Yonny Hernandez	—	11
10	Claudio Corti	—	10
11	Bryan Staring	—	9
12	Michael Laverty	—	12
13	Ivan Silva	—	14
14	Lukas Pesek	—	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Cal Crutchlow	—	—	—	1
2	Marc Marquez	—	—	—	2
3	Valentino Rossi	—	—	—	4
4	Stefan Bradl	—	—	—	3
5	Daniel Pedrosa	—	—	—	5
6	Alvaro Bautista	—	—	—	8
7	Randy De Puniet	—	—	—	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	—	—	—	7
9	Michele Pirro	—	—	—	11
10	Bradley Smith	—	—	—	6
11	Nicky Hayden	—	—	—	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Daniel Pedrosa	123	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	116	−7
3	Marc Marquez	93	−30
4	Cal Crutchlow	71	−52
5	Valentino Rossi	60	−63
6	Andrea Dovizioso	59	−64

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2012 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/26

Laps led by the winner

Casey Stoner

4.965 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P7 to P3.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Ben Spies (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%