Round 17 of 18 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2013

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

25.10 – 27.10.2013

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	42:34.291	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+3.188	20
3	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+4.592	16
4	Alvaro Bautista	Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+19.755	13
5	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda MotoGP	+22.810	11
6	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+24.637	10
7	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+27.496	9
8	Bradley Smith	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+30.969	8
9	Nicky Hayden	Ducati	Ducati Team	+37.010	7
10	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+42.944	6
11	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	Yamaha	Yamaha YSP Racing Team	+53.345	5
12	Colin Edwards	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+63.213	4
13	Randy De Puniet	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	+66.840	3
14	Andrea Iannone	Ducati	Energy T.I. Pramac Racing	+68.218	2
15	Yonny Hernandez	Ducati	Ignite Pramac Racing	+78.240	1
16	Hector Barbera	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+79.108	0
17	Hiroshi Aoyama	FTR	Avintia Blusens	+81.174	0
18	Danilo Petrucci	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	+90.546	0
19	Michael Laverty	ART	Paul Bird Motorsport	+143.358	0
20	Claudio Corti	FTR Kawasaki	NGM Mobile Forward Racing	+0.000	0
21	Damian Cudlin	PBM	Paul Bird Motorsport	+0.000	0
22	Bryan Staring	FTR Honda	GO&FUN Honda Gresini	+0.000	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	ART	Power Electronics Aspar	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Scassa	ART	Cardion AB Motoracing	Retired	0
DNF	Lukas Pesek	Ioda-Suter	Came IodaRacing Project	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Pending · no data yet

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Pending · no data yet

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

3.188 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Bradley Smith, from P13 to P8.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Nicky Hayden (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:31		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:05:03	Lukas Pesek	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:05:20	Luca Scassa	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:19:24	Claudio Corti	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:24:25	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Bradley Smith	13	6	+7
Hector Barbera	22	16	+6
Cal Crutchlow	11	8	+3
Andrea Iannone	15	25	−10
Nicky Hayden	3	10	−7
Hiroshi Aoyama	18	24	−6

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alvaro Bautista	7→4	+2.7
Bradley Smith	13→8	+2.5
Stefan Bradl	8→5	+2.3
Nicky Hayden	3→9	−4.9
Danilo Petrucci	16→18	−5.5
Yonny Hernandez	10→15	−6.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Pending · no data yet

Race weather

C25

17.2 °C

Air

max 17.4 °C

45%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 30 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

Qualifying · 26.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:53.471	—	25	293.8
2	Marc Marquez	01:54.129	+0.658	27	301.5
3	Nicky Hayden	01:54.539	+1.068	29	293.7
4	Daniel Pedrosa	01:54.542	+1.071	28	300.8
5	Valentino Rossi	01:54.732	+1.261	29	295.8
6	Andrea Dovizioso	01:55.036	+1.565	25	295.8
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:55.135	+1.664	26	299.6
8	Stefan Bradl	01:55.610	+2.139	28	299.0
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.719	+2.248	27	288.7
10	Yonny Hernandez	01:55.998	+2.527	30	294.2
11	Cal Crutchlow	01:56.058	+2.587	25	293.7
12	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:56.125	+2.654	25	294.0
13	Bradley Smith	01:57.114	+3.643	23	289.3
14	Colin Edwards	01:57.297	+3.826	25	284.2
15	Andrea Iannone	01:57.347	+3.876	26	288.9
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:57.540	+4.069	29	281.8
17	Randy De Puniet	01:57.715	+4.244	24	281.7
18	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:57.994	+4.523	22	287.6
19	Michael Laverty	01:58.540	+5.069	26	283.7
20	Luca Scassa	01:58.802	+5.331	25	281.9
21	Claudio Corti	01:59.617	+6.146	26	282.3
22	Hector Barbera	01:59.646	+6.175	27	284.4
23	Damian Cudlin	02:00.982	+7.511	23	280.5
—	Bryan Staring	02:02.712	+9.241	25	274.9
—	Lukas Pesek	02:02.932	+9.461	21	277.9

Free practice · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h
1	Stefan Bradl	01:46.440	—	20	304.1
2	Daniel Pedrosa	01:46.459	+0.019	18	306.9
3	Marc Marquez	01:46.563	+0.123	16	306.5
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:46.580	+0.140	16	300.2
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:46.635	+0.195	17	303.1
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:46.740	+0.300	20	299.5
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.913	+0.473	18	300.0
8	Valentino Rossi	01:47.102	+0.662	19	301.6
9	Nicky Hayden	01:47.187	+0.747	18	299.0
10	Bradley Smith	01:47.476	+1.036	20	298.3
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.732	+1.292	17	291.2
12	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	01:48.074	+1.634	19	299.2
13	Colin Edwards	01:48.300	+1.860	17	289.2
14	Hector Barbera	01:48.475	+2.035	21	294.4
15	Andrea Iannone	01:48.555	+2.115	17	297.1
16	Hiroshi Aoyama	01:48.629	+2.189	18	292.1
17	Yonny Hernandez	01:48.658	+2.218	18	298.2
18	Randy De Puniet	01:49.010	+2.570	20	286.6
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.090	+2.650	20	283.2
20	Claudio Corti	01:49.497	+3.057	19	288.0
21	Michael Laverty	01:49.954	+3.514	18	286.7
22	Luca Scassa	01:50.260	+3.820	14	283.8
23	Damian Cudlin	01:50.427	+3.987	15	284.3
24	Bryan Staring	01:52.160	+5.720	12	282.0
25	Lukas Pesek	01:52.877	+6.437	9	277.2

Race · 27.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps
1	Jorge Lorenzo	42:34.291	25	24
2	Marc Marquez	+3.188	20	24
3	Daniel Pedrosa	+4.592	16	24
4	Alvaro Bautista	+19.755	13	24
5	Stefan Bradl	+22.810	11	24
6	Valentino Rossi	+24.637	10	24
7	Cal Crutchlow	+27.496	9	24
8	Bradley Smith	+30.969	8	24
9	Nicky Hayden	+37.010	7	24
10	Andrea Dovizioso	+42.944	6	24
11	Katsuyuki Nakasuga	+53.345	5	24
12	Colin Edwards	+63.213	4	24
13	Randy De Puniet	+66.840	3	24
14	Andrea Iannone	+68.218	2	24
15	Yonny Hernandez	+78.240	1	24
16	Hector Barbera	+79.108	0	24
17	Hiroshi Aoyama	+81.174	0	24
18	Danilo Petrucci	+90.546	0	24
19	Michael Laverty	+143.358	0	24
20	Claudio Corti	+0.000	0	23
21	Damian Cudlin	+0.000	0	23
22	Bryan Staring	+0.000	0	23
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	12
Retired	Luca Scassa		0	1
Retired	Lukas Pesek		0	1

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Win, podium and top-10 probabilities with an 80% range.

Pending · no data yet

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2018–2026

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	298	—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	280	−18
3	Daniel Pedrosa	264	−34
4	Valentino Rossi	214	−84
5	Cal Crutchlow	179	−119
6	Alvaro Bautista	147	−151

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2012 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/24

Laps led by the winner

Daniel Pedrosa

4.275 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Stefan Bradl, from P8 to P6.

Longest battle: Katsuyuki Nakasuga vs Nicky Hayden (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet